Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[mtooler]

You are such a fair person and I also hope we win the premiership. Humble pie will be eaten. However for all our sakes I also hope we don't crash under the weight of an outmoded and overly defensive game plan used by the most unimaginative coach since Phonse Kyne. There are some people on this board who are narrow minded, petty, mean, ungenerous, big noting, snivelling, smirking, sanctimonious, self aggrandisers who will batter you and the other Horsies remorselessly with "I told you so". I am one of them.

#MeToo #I'llCriticiseWithYou

 

[mtooler]

IMO our bad kicking isn't a myth, at all.
It is no doubt compounded by a whole lotta other things going wrong at the same time.
E.g. Not having someone who can regularly take a contested mark from kick-ins magnifies our inability to get out of defense.
Not only was Eski a dynamite kick he also read the game really well and would almost always take the right option.
I know that you think Lloyd is the bees knees but on top of his dinky kicks he doesn't appear to be able to read the game that well.

Zac Jones efforts are amusing, he almost cost us a 50m penalty last year when he tried to return a ball by foot for a free kick, was no more than a 20m kick and missed them by about 10m. I genuinly think the ump thought he tried his best to return the ball and didnt penalise him.

 

[mtooler]

You are on of the brigade that claim game plan/ structure/coach are our biggest problem yet you have failed to adequately explain why these things aren't our problem when we win.

Hard to pick a side, I'm agreeing with both of your views. The possession style game with increased fwd pressure focus that AFL teams seemed to have embraced hasn't really suited our list and available players.

I think 2019 performance from the swans is hard to predict for me, largely due to the general reasoning from both of you, which indicates to me there's some problems still needing tweaking.

 

[mtooler]

Sam Reid up front will contribute at least one extra goal & Mills down back will save at least one extra goal.
There that should get us into the prelim. Now we just need to find that extra goal to make the GF or 2 to win it!

Lets not get too hasty there, lets aim for 5 or 6 goals in a finals match first and we can go from there.

 

[Number37]

Hard to pick a side, I'm agreeing with both of your views. The possession style game with increased fwd pressure focus that AFL teams seemed to have embraced hasn't really suited our list and available players.

I think 2019 performance from the swans is hard to predict for me, largely due to the general reasoning from both of you, which indicates to me there's some problems still needing tweaking.

The easy way out is pick a side.
In reality there are no sides because it is never that simple.

 

[S120]

I'm actually really up on our chances this year. I think the additions of Clarke, Thurlow and hopefully Menzel will add good depth to our side as ready-to-go senior players. We've got veterans who might start to struggle for spots (Grundy, Jack, McVeigh, Smith) but at least 3 of them are still playing adequate football. We've got a good injury list right now - it seems like Naismith and Menzel are the only guys who are really delayed in their rehab while most other guys seem to be getting consistent training in.

We get Mills back and hopefully into the middle with Jones, I have really high hopes for guys like Dawson and O'Riordan - I legitimately think that if they play full years in seniors this year they'll improve strongly and consistently. But they might not get the opportunities because we have a good top 30 players who will make spots really hard to come by. We're gonna have some good players running around in the reserves if injuries don't hit too hard.

Some of our players are essential to our chances I think. If we can get full and good years out of Aliir and Reid in particular (rare or never-before-seen occurrences) I think we're gonna be in really strong contention for the top 4.

There are no excuses for the coaches this year imo. We have a good enough list to have a really strong year in 2019. If we underwhelm, I think it will likely be illustrative that our coaching staff needs change because the players are not responding to their messages.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

...or that the messages are outdated. This is the year where Horse has the opportunity to prove he is not the reincarnation of Phonse Kyne. (Connolly credited for the comparison)

 

[caesar88]

...or that the messages are outdated. This is the year where Horse has the opportunity to prove he is not the reincarnation of Phonse Kyne. (Connolly credited for the comparison)

I agree this is a make or break year for Horse for me personally. Which sounds silly to say as you’ve already “made it” as a coach if you’ve won a flag, and he’ll still be around in 2020 even if he “breaks”. But this year I’m less bothered by our win-loss record than I am by the direction we’re going in. I’d be OK with half the wins we had this year if it was the result of Horse shifting the game plan around and trying something new to benefit our players.

 

[Number37]

I agree this is a make or break year for Horse for me personally. Which sounds silly to say as you’ve already “made it” as a coach if you’ve won a flag, and he’ll still be around in 2020 even if he “breaks”. But this year I’m less bothered by our win-loss record than I am by the direction we’re going in. I’d be OK with half the wins we had this year if it was the result of Horse shifting the game plan around and trying something new to benefit our players.

Something new?
Like ?

 

[RUNVS]

...or that the messages are outdated. This is the year where Horse has the opportunity to prove he is not the reincarnation of Phonse Kyne. (Connolly credited for the comparison)

I actually see Horse as more of a Field Marshal Haig type figure. In fact I was thinking about that and it caused me to decide that Haig would make a great avatar.

 

[connolly]

I actually see Horse as more of a Field Marshal Haig type figure. In fact I was thinking about that and it caused me to decide that Haig would make a great avatar.

Very apt historical analogy. Haig has been described as "In a situation demanding the military equivalent of wit and invention…Haig had none.” Remind us of anyone? The horse would also be an appropriate avatar for Haig. He believed that the machine gun was ineffective against horse cavalry in WWI. Infamously lost 60,000 troops killed and wounded in one morning on the Somme.

 

[connolly]

...or that the messages are outdated. This is the year where Horse has the opportunity to prove he is not the reincarnation of Phonse Kyne. (Connolly credited for the comparison)

The comparison at the moment is a bit unkind to Phonse. He coached the criminal scum to two premierships in eight(?) finals appearances. He took over a strong Collingwood team that won the 1953 GF, notable for that awful match fixer John Wren having a heart attack and dying during the match in the last quarter. His partner in match fixing Jock McHale had a heart attack also in the same match and ascended to the great football heaven. Yes there really is a football God. Kyne coached them after to a succession of unsuccessful finals appearances a la Horse. He then coached the crims to the greatest upset win in GF history win against a much better team Melbourne and a much better coach in 1958. In a mud heap the slower and less skilful criminal outfit beat the blue bloods. Melbourne's first ruck had a hyphenated name something my father looked at very sceptically. Phonse Kyne made a typical unimaginative Collingwood move that worked in the mud by putting a talentless thug called Harrison on the champion Barassi, who was sucked in to retaliating all through the match to the detriment of his game. The moral of this story is that even the most unimaginative of coaches can "fluke" a GF. My ageless hope springs eternal. The question is. Can Horse do a Phonse Kyne?

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

I went to the 59 GF. Hooker Harrison was a thug.

The grand old Duke of Horse
Had but twenty two men
He marched them deep to the backline
And kept them there again, again and again.

 

[connolly]

I went to the 59 GF. Hooker Harrison was a thug.

The grand old Duke of Horse
Had but twenty two men
He marched them deep to the backline
And kept them there again, again and again.

1958 was his first year of senior football. Never did anything of note apart from roughing up Barassi behind the play. That year was big year for tough blokes called Harrison. Freddy 'The Frog" Harrison stand over man and human vermin had his head blown off on South Pier in front of about 30 wharfies. No one saw anything. About 20 blokes said they were in the two man toilet at the time. A returned serviceman and good trade unionist John Twist dispensed a rough justice. Yes I know this is way off topic. Interesting times and great years. To the thread police - guilty as charged constable.

 

[caesar88]

Something new?
Like ?

We could maybe play on more often when the option is there instead of slowing it down to be cautious. We could try keeping multiple forwards in the forward 50 at all times regardless of what's happening up the ground. We could emphasise at training lowering our eyes when delivering the ball inside 50. We could try to take on the corridor more than we currently do, both going inside 50 and exiting our defence. We could try and create less stoppages since it no longer suits the make-up of our midfield. We could try capitalising on those lack of stoppages by creating more time and space for our fleet-footed guys like Florent or Jones to work with. We could emphasise at training running into and using space so that we can move the ball forward with options instead of stagnant, sideways ball movement.

These are all things that (IMO) we need to do more of if we are to improve. I'm not saying Horse hasn't tried to get us playing more like this, but if that's the case, and he has tried, then he's failed, and he needs to try a different approach or messaging to drill these habits into the team.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Bell and foot are my smokys to make an impact in 19

Watched Bell a bit last year. He is impressively skilful. Haven't seen Foot.

 

[caesar88]

Watched Bell a bit last year. He is impressively skilful. Haven't seen Foot.

I'm not expecting much from our draftees this year, even though I think it was the most comprehensive we've had in recent times in terms of ticking the boxes.

Foot's highlights suggest he'll be a Florent 2.0. I think given the similar positions they play and looking at his frame alone I can't see him making much of an impact this year, similar to Stoddart in 2018 and Florent himself in 2017. Ditto McInerney.

Rowbottom looks ready to go body-wise, but as he's an inside mid it's a huge ask to expect him to find his feet straight away playing on the inside, and all three adapting in the NEAFL may actually serve them better than a baptism by fire.

Durak Tucker is my tip to be the surprise bolter. I'm pretty sure he's in the final stages of recovery from his ACL, and will be back to full training in the early stages of the year. That gives him a good chance to spend a solid half-season or so in the reserves pushing for selection if there are any injuries with Sir Dane, Aliir, Thurlow etc. The kid looks to play with some real audacity and if he can get his body OK he and Aliir roaming around in defence would make for an interesting prospect in the future.

Reynolds will probably be a depth player as he doesn't seem to have too many stand-out attributes that would put him ahead of Tucker or any of the above defenders I just mentioned. Ditto Wicks, though the rookie small forwards in recent years have come out of nowhere and served us remarkably well (think Papley, Ronke)

Blakey is the obvious, because we know he'll be backed in and playing senior footy even if he does still look like one of those stretchy Santa toys I had when I was a kid.

Edit: Rowbottom may not be ready to go. I've heard he has knee and groin issues which have limited his pre-season so far. Nothing major but may just put him behind the eight-ball in terms of potential pre-season appearances.

 

[TheMase]

Agree on Tucker, I think he looks a really good prospect if he recovers well (from limited vision, just looked like he had a bit of class about him).

 

[Wolftone]

Something new?
Like ?

Not just bombing to Bud one out surrounded by enemies.

Not just kicking along the line

An updated centre square set up. Allow the Mids coaches to plan instead of going back to the same old same old all the time.

Slow movement out fo the back line is slow death in today's footy. We need to move the ball quicker

How about getting clearances. I know it's a novel idea for Horse, who's game plan is all about attacking from the backline.

Get rid of the flood and set up a clearance line up until CHF. In other words have an out instead of constantly just giving the ball back to the opposition coming out of defence.

Try run and carry. It might just work.

STOP BEING FAR TOO BUD CONSCIOUS. LOOK FOR THE BEST OPTIONS FORWARD. IF WE DON'T DO THIS WE ARE CACTUS.

Mix it up a bit. Stop being so bloody predictable. Yes we won more than lost last year but I believe our list was a lot more talented than the game plan allowed. Some pretty ordinary teams made the finals and we were one of them because we had no plan. We also had many young players too. But one of the reasons we got flogged by GWS is because we were far too predictable.

Play a game plan that suits the talent at our disposal. The coaches wanted these players yet we play a style that does not suit most of them.

Horses for courses and experienced players should not get preferential treatment and games on reputation. Hannas last year is a great example of this.

There should not be a Best 22. There should be a Best 22 for each game. It may not be the best 22 from the week before.

Stop panicking and going ultra negative. Yes we saved some matches this way but we also lost two matches we should have won. If every team does what Suns and Bombers did to us last year and Horse panics and shuts up shop like he did against them then we will be in deep shite. The players do not believe in that game plan.

According to sources both on here and my own the players have told Horse they no longer believe in the game plan.

 

[Wolftone]

I went to the 59 GF. Hooker Harrison was a thug.

The grand old Duke of Horse
Had but twenty two men
He marched them deep to the backline
And kept them there again, again and again.

HAHAHAHA but tells the story really. We even start 90% of our attacks from there if we can get out.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

We sit nicely in terms of age/experience heading into 2019.

 

[Wolftone]

We sit nicely in terms of age/experience heading into 2019.

Indeed we do. We also have had two years of drafting two players in the top end draft pick area. Ensuring top end talent. Not only that all the players we have traded were either top end draft picks or have a proven track record.

I am really excited by our list. Now the coaching has to rise to that standard.

 

[caesar88]

Indeed we do. We also have had two years of drafting two players in the top end draft pick area. Ensuring top end talent. Not only that all the players we have traded were either top end draft picks or have a proven track record.

I am really excited by our list. Now the coaching has to rise to that standard.

I agree. I look at our list of players aged 24 and under, and we are so far ahead of any other list in the competition in terms of talent and potential it's laughable. They're still young and developing so I'm not heaping any pressure on them for results, nor am I expecting the coaching staff to deliver any miracle flags, but rather a sense they know where this group of young'n Swans will be going in the coming years (I didn't get that from 2018 tbh). When I will be heaping pressure on the coaching staff, and expecting results, will be around 2021 and onwards. I know you can't predict the future but if we have the best group of youngsters in the competition, in theory we should be the best team, or close to it, once they're all developed and in their primes. We should at least be in serious contention and not sure there will be many excuses if we're not.

 

[bungee]

The trouble with our plan B is it no longer works. Look at Suns, Bombers and GWS games for evidence. If we gert sucked into playing that sort of game we will get flogged and often.

If your defensive game plan is organised on a flood then you are in trouble. The defensive game plan must be designed to get out of defense by a series of tactics that work. None of our defensive action when the panic button was pushed was at all about this. It was flood, flood, flood and with no dam pressure outlet to let the water out. To be a successful, by this I mean win premierships, team as different from a successful club, you need to design tactics around your personnel that allow them an outlet out of defense once the ball is in that area. Flooding was never a good way to do this. It might keep the scoring low but the scoring is still being done by the opposition.

You're right to some extent Wolfie. A real issue in 2018 was not having a tall target to hit out of defence. That was usually Reid's job to give the marking option. We really missed his versatility as well as his forward presence. I'm hoping Reid, Naismith back and adding Blakey will help give us the height we lacked.

 

[caesar88]

You're right to some extent Wolfie. A real issue in 2018 was not having a tall target to hit out of defence. That was usually Reid's job to give the marking option. We really missed his versatility as well as his forward presence. I'm hoping Reid, Naismith back and adding Blakey will help give us the height we lacked.

Many people point to Reid's absence as a key to why our game plan was rather ineffective at times in 2018. Those same people tend to point to 2016 in defence of our game plan, the year we made a grand final and were arguably robbed of a flag. Also the year that Reid didn't play a game.