Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[Wolftone]

Ok then!
I'll put it this way.
Come round 1, if fit, Melican, Reid & Mills are definite starters.
Those players right there change the whole structure of the team & they weren't available all season.
"Really good coaches adapt & improvise". Exactly! Horse did just that but unfortunately it still robbed us of the consistency we were after in order to win the flag people on here so much though we should have won in 2018 just because we have Buddy. That thinking is ludicrous because we still had an inexperienced lineup. They are gaining experience but still well short of where we need to be to strike for a flag. Once again, even Clarko has been unable to win any of his last 4 finals on his home ground. Even with the star studded line up he has accumulated.

I'm not sure why those arguing against Horse won't acknowledge any of his achievements last season. Most notably that he was able to get the most interstate wins of any team, even with a young line up.

Anyway we'll only have to worry about him as our coach for 1 or maybe two more years & then we can look forward to..........................ummm.................who bloody knows?
Enlighten us all someone. Which genius on here knows who our next coach should be?

OK he got the most interstate wins but could not win at home. Umm. Problem there as we plat 11 games at home. He did not adapt his game plan much at all. With a smaller line up he still used the kick along the line to a pack as a get out. It broke down on mant occasions because there were simple not enough tall options. If you canstantly use a tactic that requires talls when you don't have talls, that is the definition of futility.

Horse was not flexible enough and that fact was exposed on several occasions, twice very badly. Thus year I'm hoping for change. He seems to be changing things up. I hope he actually is.

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[Wolftone]

So your argument is take away our spine of talls we're left with Richmond ? No, we were left with inexperience.

So was Richmond. Their small line up had played less games than ours when it won a premiership. There were several first year players and many second year players in their premiership team

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[Grand Uncle Horace]

Pure forward.

He plays for us if he is right

Radio blurb yesterday suggested the Bloods expect Menzell and Buddoir to be ready for Round 1.

 

[connolly]

How would we rate him if he played for another club

Jessie White , Tyrone Vicory level?

Interesting to compare Reids stats with Whites. 2011 - 23 possessions; 2012 -10; 2013 - 12. He averaged around 5 marks a game. White had a career average of 10 disposals and 4 marks and I goal a game. Almost exactly that of Reid. Tyrone Vickery averaged 10 disposals a game and 4 marks and I goal a game and one king hit. Spot on. He is level pegging with White and Vickery.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Come round 1, if fit, Melican, Reid & Mills are definite starters.

2 out of 3 aint bad. I do not see Melican as a definite starter.

I think our backline needs an overhaul. Yes I know it stood up in the past few seasons and rarely gave up big scores. However I think this was less a reflection of the effectiveness of the back six than the reality of a flooded D50 filled with mids and forwards scuttling back.

I expect the rule changes, feedback and reflection Horse has no doubt had, will have encouraged him to take a different approach.

Our back six/seven has typically included:

* a lock down small. Smithy has done this role for years and done it well. However his lack of pace and inability to kick over a jam tin has encouraged the chippetty chip, safety first approach trademark of our defence.

* two talls - last year, Reg and Allir (the Pelican in 2017). Reg finally showed weariness and vulnerability on the ground last year. He will prolly play game one, but worry how he will fare against the Brave Bullies

* an interceptor/utility - Sir Dane

* two or three flankers - typically Macca, Jones and Lloyd..

While we have rightfully focussed on the problems with our moribund midfield, I think there is a greater case to rejig the personnel in the back 50 and the game plan for the defenders. The days where we flood back must go. The loss to the GoCo showed reliance on that game plan is stuffed.

I really hope Horse opts to select a back six (not seven) that emphasises run, disposal efficiency as well as defensive skills.

With this in mind, I believe Allir is a lock and the other tall will be Thurlow/Reg/Melcan. I do not think we can afford to have Smithy and Macca in the same team. Both are slow. Macca offers better ball distribution and Smithy offers better defensive lock down abilities.

My only locks for the backline are Allir, Sir Dane and Lloyd. For Round one, assuming fitness I would have one of Melican, Reg and Thurlow (Prolly Thurlow), O'Riordan and Macca. That six provides a balance of defensive capability with run and disposal ability.

Smith, Jones, Reg and Pelican would all miss with maybe Jones a chance to start on the i/c. What do others think?

 

[connolly]

2 out of 3 aint bad. I do not see Melican as a definite starter.

I think our backline needs an overhaul. Yes I know it stood up in the past few seasons and rarely gave up big scores. However I think this was less a reflection of the effectiveness of the back six than the reality of a flooded D50 filled with mids and forwards scuttling back.

I expect the rule changes, feedback and reflection Horse has no doubt had, will have encouraged him to take a different approach.

Our back six/seven has typically included:

* a lock down small. Smithy has done this role for years and done it well. However his lack of pace and inability to kick over a jam tin has encouraged the chippetty chip, safety first approach trademark of our defence.

* two talls - last year, Reg and Allir (the Pelican in 2017). Reg finally showed weariness and vulnerability on the ground last year. He will prolly play game one, but worry how he will fare against the Brave Bullies

* an interceptor/utility - Sir Dane

* two or three flankers - typically Macca, Jones and Lloyd..

While we have rightfully focussed on the problems with our moribund midfield, I think there is a greater case to rejig the personnel in the back 50 and the game plan for the defenders. The days where we flood back must go. The loss to the GoCo showed reliance on that game plan is stuffed.

I really hope Horse opts to select a back six (not seven) that emphasises run, disposal efficiency as well as defensive skills.

With this in mind, I believe Allir is a lock and the other tall will be Thurlow/Reg/Melcan. I do not think we can afford to have Smithy and Macca in the same team. Both are slow. Macca offers better ball distribution and Smithy offers better defensive lock down abilities.

My only locks for the backline are Allir, Sir Dane and Lloyd. For Round one, assuming fitness I would have one of Melican, Reg and Thurlow (Prolly Thurlow), O'Riordan and Macca. That six provides a balance of defensive capability with run and disposal ability.

Smith, Jones, Reg and Pelican would all miss with maybe Jones a chance to start on the i/c. What do others think?

Agree with a lot of that. The rule changes have been designed to finally kill the back 50 flooding from the game. There will be more emphasis on one on one defender contests. Longmire must restructure the back 6. We are slow, lack rebound and can be out marked by a good marking forward. Reiwoldt's performance in Round 15 last year should give Longmire nightmares. How do you reckon we will go when Richmond have two strong marking talls? Strangely enough the game may come back to Reg. So it Rampe, O'Riordan, Reg, Aliir, Thurlow and Jones. The slow old blokes time is up. That gives us three strong marking defenders, one medium sized match up and two small rebounders.

 

[S120]

My two young guys who I think could really help our 22 (and who I really hope get extended playing time in seniors this year) are Jordan Dawson and Colin O'Riordan. I think both can flourish at seniors and they're both ready right now to do it.

O'Riordan's athleticism, intercepting, and rebound out of defence could be really valuable (and I think ideally will replace McVeigh long term), while Dawson's size around stoppages and canny ability up forward could be really useful.

It'll be tough for both of them to get a game - I think Dawson is more likely to be in the side by round 1 - but I'd be doing everything I can to find a spot for both of them.=

 

[Punts]

News rules and the speed

Grundy and one of smith or Macca will be found out fast

Has to be a hole new look

 

[S120]

News rules and the speed

Grundy and one of smith or Macca will be found out fast

Has to be a hole new look

This is a very real issue. Grundy, Smith and McVeigh all in the same back line could be exploited a lot. Particularly if Melican is included in this unit as some seem to be predicting.

I'm sure the coaches will not want to get rid of all that experience in one go, but they could all be vulnerable at some stage this year (I think Smith is the least vulnerable and Grundy is the most vulnerable). Guys like O'Riordan, Stoddart, and Ling should be very encouraged to win spots in the side.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

This is a very real issue. Grundy, Smith and McVeigh all in the same back line could be exploited a lot. Particularly if Melican is included in this unit as some seem to be predicting.

I'm sure the coaches will not want to get rid of all that experience in one go, but they could all be vulnerable at some stage this year (I think Smith is the least vulnerable and Grundy is the most vulnerable). Guys like O'Riordan, Stoddart, and Ling should be very encouraged to win spots in the side.

Some really good suggestions and thoughts here and above. I really favour run and ability to find a target, beyond the sideways or backwards chippetty. Whereas Reg is as slow as treacle he is still good one on one, is an excellent mark and a good user of the ball. I think we can 'carry' one bloke who is slow, but the rest have to be able to run and dispose of the ball.

I think Reg is the least vulnerable and Smithy is the one skating on thin ice. He is still a terrific lockdown player but for the past few seasons I have dreaded seeing him with ball in hand. This is not because he butchers the ball but because the Opposition know exactly what he will do, which is to take time and find a short range lateral target.

Smithy is probably the worst kick on the list beyond 25-30 metres. He and the coaches obviously know this and he plays within his limitations. Unhappily, ball in hand Smithy is the antithesis of an attacking weapon and helps the Oppo corral us in D50.

 

[RUNVS]

News rules and the speed

Grundy and one of smith or Macca will be found out fast

Has to be a hole new look

To be honest I suspect this might be the year where Smith has a big drop in performance as his last 2 seasons have not been up to his previous standard and I think he is going to start having some question marks over his head. Hope I am wrong though.

 

[Punts]

Reckon thurlow will be starting r1

They imo will have to pick between melican and reg

 

[TheMase]

. By the way he does not average 7 marks a game. Make it closer to 4.

45 games between 2015 and now and averaged closer to 6

 

[TheMase]

How would we rate him if he played for another club

Jessie White , Tyrone Vicory level?

Maybe. But even so, if he is the best option for the role when fit, and he is, then maybe he is at their level, but he is the best available player for the position...

Nobody here is claiming he is anything but average, but he is currently better than the other available options.

Nobody is claiming he is a superstar, or even close.

 

[connolly]

45 games between 2015 and now and averaged closer to 6

.
His career average is closer to 4 but lets not quibble. 5. Tremendous. He is still in White and Vickery territory. At 27 maybe its time for him to deliver.

 

[SSwans2011]

Maybe. But even so, if he is the best option for the role when fit, and he is, then maybe he is at their level, but he is the best available player for the position...

Nobody here is claiming he is anything but average, but he is currently better than the other available options.

Nobody is claiming he is a superstar, or even close.

McCartin averages about half of what Vickery and White do in terms of important stats. Must be a spud.

 

[caesar88]

How would we rate him if he played for another club

Jessie White , Tyrone Vicory level?

Yep as I said, if he were at Hawthorn or West Coast or Adelaide, teams with plenty of big man options both in the past and present, he would have been delisted. Yet here we are acting like he’s our great hope.

 

[caesar88]

Maybe. But even so, if he is the best option for the role when fit, and he is, then maybe he is at their level, but he is the best available player for the position...

Nobody here is claiming he is anything but average, but he is currently better than the other available options.

Nobody is claiming he is a superstar, or even close.

That’s simply not true though because he’s been used as an excuse for our 2018 results by several posters this off-season. They must think he is more than average if they think his absence was the difference between us being a contender and barely making the eight.

And FWIW the whole point of my original post is that I personally don’t like the concept of playing average blokes just because the structure demands it. We need to change our structure then if we’re relying on a bunch of blokes with average output to make our game plan effective. What’s the point in keeping someone like Reid around in the best 22 if he’s only gonna play one good game every month? Won’t be much help in September then, a month we already have struggled with passengers too many times in recent years.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

That’s simply not true though because he’s been used as an excuse for our 2018 results by several posters this off-season. They must think he is more than average if they think his absence was the difference between us being a contender and barely making the eight.

And FWIW the whole point of my original post is that I personally don’t like the concept of playing average blokes just because the structure demands it. We need to change our structure then if we’re relying on a bunch of blokes with average output to make our game plan effective. What’s the point in keeping someone like Reid around in the best 22 if he’s only gonna play one good game every month? Won’t be much help in September then, a month we already have struggled with passengers too many times in recent years.

A bit harsh Caesar. If you go through our list and divide it into champs, good, average, below par, I think you'd find Reidy has plenty of mates in the average group. Any team we run out this year will mainly comprise average players.

FWIW Reid in the team provides an option beyond blindly kicking it in the direction of Buddy. Like other average players he will have his share of above and below par games. I do not think inclusion of a fit Sam in 2018 would have been the difference between being an also ran or a contender. However I am convinced he would have helped our performance as well as taking a small amount of pressure off a hampered Buddy,

 

[Wolftone]

And I wouldn't have said you were completely and utterly incorrect if you weren't. For the time being, Reid is an important part of our list. We're not going to get better by making ourselves worse.

That is a pretty egotistical statement. Everything here is opinion and other people's opinions are just as valid as yours. Just because you disagree it doesn't make that opinion plain wrong. That sort of black and white attitude is very American. I'm sure there are many shades of grey and each argument, yours included, has elements of truth.

For instance Reid has been very disappointing in that he has trouble staying fit. Secondly he does not kick enough goals for a key forward.

On the upside he is able to break the packs with huge marks. Is incredibly good one on one and with the long kick down the line he will invariably mark or bring ball to ground.

See ha has up and downside. Is he best 22? Personally I believe it depends on who we are playing, if he is fit and in form. No matter which player, even Joey, Parks, Macca etc, we can't afford to carry players like we did Hannas last year.

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[SSwans2011]

That is a pretty egotistical statement. Everything here is opinion and other people's opinions are just as valid as yours. Just because you disagree it doesn't make that opinion plain wrong. That sort of black and white attitude is very American. I'm sure there are many shades of grey and each argument, yours included, has elements of truth.

For instance Reid has been very disappointing in that he has trouble staying fit. Secondly he does not kick enough goals for a key forward.

On the upside he is able to break the packs with huge marks. Is incredibly good one on one and with the long kick down the line he will invariably mark or bring ball to ground.

See ha has up and downside. Is he best 22? Personally I believe it depends on who we are playing, if he is fit and in form. No matter which player, even Joey, Parks, Macca etc, we can't afford to carry players like we did Hannas last year.

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I'm okay with people having opinions. Saying Reid shouldn't be on our list is just silly though. He's the second best key forward in a team that should be playing finals. That's not the kind of person you should be cutting from your list.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Is he best 22? Personally I believe it depends on who we are playing, if he is fit and in form. No matter which player, even Joey, Parks, Macca etc, we can't afford to carry players like we did Hannas last year.

I think that is an important criterion which I hope selectors adopt this year. For too long the Club seemingly picked teams on reputation and not current performance. I believe this shifted last year with the dropping (albeit in a messy way) of Grohan and Reg and the subsequent salary dump trades of Rohan and Hanners.

 

[caesar88]

A bit harsh Caesar. If you go through our list and divide it into champs, good, average, below par, I think you'd find Reidy has plenty of mates in the average group. Any team we run out this year will mainly comprise average players.

FWIW Reid in the team provides an option beyond blindly kicking it in the direction of Buddy. Like other average players he will have his share of above and below par games. I do not think inclusion of a fit Sam in 2018 would have been the difference between being an also ran or a contender. However I am convinced he would have helped our performance as well as taking a small amount of pressure off a hampered Buddy,

True, we are not above having average players, no club is. But I have devised a best 22 that I think has as few 'average' players as possible, taller marking targets around the ground, and that doesn't have to include Reid.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

True, we are not above having average players, no club is. But I have devised a best 22 that I think has as few 'average' players as possible, taller marking targets around the ground, and that doesn't have to include Reid.

I suspect my team inevitably has a majority of 'average' players. Some are "average" based on them being on the downside of their careers (Reg, Macca), others may be because I cannot see more upside than what we have seen to date (Sinkers, Cunningham, Jones) with the remainder being younger players who while average at the moment have an observable upside (eg Ollie, Papley, Hayburner, George) that may see them rated as "good" in the future .

 

[caesar88]

I suspect my team inevitably has a majority of 'average' players. Some are "average" based on them being on the downside of their careers (Reg, Macca), others may be because I cannot see more upside than what we have seen to date (Sinkers, Cunningham, Jones) with the remainder being younger players who while average at the moment have an observable upside (eg Ollie, Papley, Hayburner, George) that may see them rated as "good" in the future .

Yep that's all very fair as that's just the result of the transitioning time where in. Can't really be avoided. I would say you may be being a little harsh on Hewett. He's a very good player already IMO.