Traded 2018 Live Trade: Carlton trade #4 (2019) to Adelaide for #19 (2018) and #9 (2019)

[Monkey King]

Being that is the case, why are so many Carlton fans trying to use the points system to justify this trade or even going one step further and using it to prove they have won this trade ??

I haven’t seen that, so you’d have to provide some examples for me to comment. I have however seen a few Crows posters do this, even assigning McAdam imaginary points value to pull it off. Why do this? I have no idea. It’s flawed.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Probably because at this early stage there is no perfect way to judge who won that trade, so everyone is trying different ways of justifying it, all of which have flaws. The points system is reasonably attractive because it’s unbiased, but it’s also flawed because of the way that picks are weighted and because the points themselves don’t run out on the field, win possession or kick goals.

True but will time improve the situation? I certainly agree it's players in your jumper that matters.

Drafting is about probabilities and you can actually make a great deal and lose. I certainly dint wish injuries on any teenager entering the system, but careers are ruinedby them all the time. Some if it at least just bad luck.

 

[Lore]

True but will time improve the situation? I certainly agree it's players in your jumper that matters.

Drafting is about probabilities and you can actually make a great deal and lose. I certainly dint wish injuries on any teenager entering the system, but careers are ruinedby them all the time. Some if it at least just bad luck.

If this trade contributes to Carlton winning a flag in the next decade or so I think that would count for something, far more than a few hundred points on a draft board (worst case scenario).

It's not like Carlton have a shortage of players taken at early picks so for them pick 1 is probably not worth as much as it might be to other clubs. Perhaps Stocker + a higher risk, higher ceiling player that they draft in 2019 with Adelaide's pick is exactly what they need, rather than the guy with a higher floor (that they might get with the pick everyone here seems to assume they'd have had otherwise). Certainly the people who know Carlton's list best seemed to think that was their best option.

And then there's the possibility Adelaide finish lower than Carlton in 2019, and a heck of a lot of people have mud on their faces even when analysing it based on a points system.

 

[Pea Nut]

If this trade contributes to Carlton winning a flag in the next decade or so I think that would count for something, far more than a few hundred points on a draft board (worst case scenario).

It's not like Carlton have a shortage of players taken at early picks so for them pick 1 is probably not worth as much as it might be to other clubs. Perhaps Stocker + a higher risk, higher ceiling player that they draft in 2019 with Adelaide's pick is exactly what they need, rather than the guy with a higher floor (that they might get with the pick everyone here seems to assume they'd have had otherwise). Certainly the people who know Carlton's list best seemed to think that was their best option.

And then there's the possibility Adelaide finish lower than Carlton in 2019, and a heck of a lot of people have mud on their faces even when analysing it based on a points system.

There's many ways this could go. Crows could finish below Carlton and still end up with a superstar with that pick, or Carlton could finish bottom 3 handing over a top end pick and we draft a spud. It's the eventual players that matter, not draft picks or points.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

If this trade contributes to Carlton winning a flag in the next decade or so I think that would count for something, far more than a few hundred points on a draft board (worst case scenario).

It's not like Carlton have a shortage of players taken at early picks so for them pick 1 is probably not worth as much as it might be to other clubs. Perhaps Stocker + a higher risk, higher ceiling player that they draft in 2019 with Adelaide's pick is exactly what they need, rather than the guy with a higher floor (that they might get with the pick everyone here seems to assume they'd have had otherwise). Certainly the people who know Carlton's list best seemed to think that was their best option.

And then there's the possibility Adelaide finish lower than Carlton in 2019, and a heck of a lot of people have mud on their faces even when analysing it based on a points system.

All true.

It's just I dont really get it when people call a trade a loss because if a draft in subsequent years.

 

[Lore]

There's many ways this could go. Crows could finish below Carlton and still end up with a superstar with that pick, or Carlton could finish bottom 3 handing over a top end pick and we draft a spud. It's the eventual players that matter, not draft picks or points.

And how they fit in with their respective teams, whether that team then performs better with that roster compared to the hypothetical alternative etc. I agree.

 

[Lore]

All true.

It's just I dont really get it when people call a trade a loss because if a draft in subsequent years.

In this particular case, probably because future picks are involved and we don't know exactly what they'll be yet.

 

[Ray Donovan]

No idea why everyone has jumped off Weitering completely. He’s had an indifferent few years after having a stellar first year in the system but he’s a 21 year-old KPD in a bottom team. Far too early to call.

I’m also very happy with McKay over Rioli and Milera. Not that there’s any point comparing a KP player with flankers, but he’s shown as much in his 20 (?) odd AFL games.

Oliver would have been nice, but he was a genuine bolter and never in calculations for our first pick. Great forecasting from Melbourne though.

But that's how it works with the draft not saying sos should of got it or it was likely. Would of been a draft changer bontempelli ( 2013 ) to the Bulldogs was the same. He was a bolter and a no.4 but still went inside top 3 available picks so it's really not that far off. Similar to when cripps was selected at no.13 or a nat fyfe picked 20. They are club changers.

I was actually giving SOS a massive wrap for picking curnow at 12 it makes the draft a win no matter what happens around that.

Talls even if you go back to 2010 its been so difficult to work out. Clubs break themselves trying to find a good one in top 10.

2010 S.Day ( 3 ) Gorringe (10) Lynch ( 11)
2011 Patton ( 1 ) Longer ( 8 ) Tomlin (9)
2012 L.Plowman ( 3 ) Daniher (10 ) F/S
2013 T.Boyd (1) Scharenberg (6)
2014 Mcartin (1) Marchbank (6) Wright (8)
Moore (9) F/S
2015 weitering ( 1 ) Schache (2)Weideman (10)
2016 -
2017 Darcy Forgarty (6) Naughton (9)
2018

Rioli and milera were mentioned because they went basically directly after McKay. Doesn't mean anything just interesting players selected in similar positions in comparison to how they develop.

 

[La Dispute]

Interesting to note the key forwards are generally fairly hit and miss (we’ve hit on both in that list), while there is a higher strike rate with key defenders. I wouldn’t place Plowman or Scharenberg in this list though, as they’re more 3rd/4th talls/medium defenders and weren’t drafted to be big bodied brutes.

Weitering will at worst be a good key defender and at best be AA caliber. I suspect he will need a season or two to really hit his stride, but you don’t lose your nous. His game has been tampered with far too much as well, and he needs continuity in his role. He was far more effective in the second half of the season than the first, to which he looked lost and devoid of any confidence.

 

[Crow till I die]

But that's how it works with the draft not saying sos should of got it or it was likely. Would of been a draft changer bontempelli ( 2013 ) to the Bulldogs was the same. He was a bolter and a no.4 but still went inside top 3 available picks so it's really not that far off. Similar to when cripps was selected at no.13 or a nat fyfe picked 20. They are club changers.

I was actually giving SOS a massive wrap for picking curnow at 12 it makes the draft a win no matter what happens around that.

Talls even if you go back to 2010 its been so difficult to work out. Clubs break themselves trying to find a good one in top 10.

2010 S.Day ( 3 ) Gorringe (10) Lynch ( 11)
2011 Patton ( 1 ) Longer ( 8 ) Tomlin (9)
2012 L.Plowman ( 3 ) Daniher (10 ) F/S
2013 T.Boyd (1) Scharenberg (6)
2014 Mcartin (1) Marchbank (6) Wright (8)
Moore (9) F/S
2015 weitering ( 1 ) Schache (2)Weideman (10)
2016 -
2017 Darcy Forgarty (6) Naughton (9)
2018

Rioli and milera were mentioned because they went basically directly after McKay. Doesn't mean anything just interesting players selected in similar positions in comparison to how they develop.

Darcy fogarty went at pick 12 from memory..although if he reaches his potential he could easily have been a no 1 pick

 

[Rich01]

Probably because at this early stage there is no perfect way to judge who won that trade, so everyone is trying different ways of justifying it, all of which have flaws. The points system is reasonably attractive because it’s unbiased, but it’s also flawed because of the way that picks are weighted and because the points themselves don’t run out on the field, win possession or kick goals.

Correct.
All we can say at this stage is that Adelaide gave up pick 19 and Carlton received Stocker.

The latter part of the deal concludes at the end of this year and will likely see Carlton give up a pick in the range of (1-4) for Adelaide (10-14). The season does need to play out but the relevant list managers would have traded on finishing position assumptions.

Unless a list manager rated Stocker ridiculously high, trading pick 2 for pick 12 and 19 would generally be see as overs.

 

[SickQwon]

Plot twist: Stocker and both the future draftees all become duds and no one wins this trade.

 

[Masqualero]

Lol, SOS sold the farm for a kid with no lung capacity. They have to let SOS go and bring Kouta back.

Im not even sure Socrates himself could make out what you are trying to say.
Please explain.

 

[Jeremias]

Im not even sure Socrates himself could make out what you are trying to say.
Please explain.

He won't be able to - the troll has left the building.

A timely reminder that trolling isn't going to be tolerated here, especially if you're a repeat offender.

 

[Pablito]

And we're off, looking like a mighty good trade at this very (very early) moment in time for the bloose!

 

[Pepperlad]

This trade has disaster written all over it for Adelaide.

 

[Malifice]

This thread is going to get bumped every week ain't it?

Crows did look shot though. Ok in patches but very ordinary otherwise.

Still they got a good run. They'll be fine.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Doedee is a huge loss. Love watching him play. Their other big defenders lack his athleticism and intercept marking ability.

 

[Pea Nut]

This thread is going to get bumped every week ain't it?

Crows did look shot though. Ok in patches but very ordinary otherwise.

Still they got a good run. They'll be fine.

Looked shot ?? Why ?? I think you're buying in to what is continually posted on the Carlton board. We tried to beat Hawthorn with a game plan that requires elite skill execution, and were awful with fumbles and turnovers. Much like a lot of other sides this weekend.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Looked shot ?? Why ?? I think you're buying in to what is continually posted on the Carlton board. We tried to beat Hawthorn with a game plan that requires elite skill execution, and were awful with fumbles and turnovers. Much like a lot of other sides this weekend.

Maybe not looked shot, but there were a number of concerns before the season started.

1. Aging forward line -
Tex - Last years excuse was injury. Is he carrying still or has the decline happened quicker than expected?
Jenkins - Maybe just a front running forward
Betts - Father time caught up?
How do you deal with missing
Cameron and McGovern from your forward line as well.

You lost Lever in the previous year and Doedee stepped up, now you've lost him as well, there could be some issues long term there as well.

Your midfield still looks a little on the slow side and lacking line breaking speed.

Not shot, but maybe not as strong as Adelaide fans would have hoped.

 

[Malifice]

Looked shot ?? Why ?? I think you're buying in to what is continually posted on the Carlton board. We tried to beat Hawthorn with a game plan that requires elite skill execution, and were awful with fumbles and turnovers. Much like a lot of other sides this weekend.

You guys were very fumbly, I saw a lot of players lose their tempers, and just looked disorganized at times. Basically just appeared to not be switched on.

There were a few minor passages where things clicked, but overall you looked pretty bad.

Only round 1 and all that, but it also bears noting it was a home game (and there is no better home ground advantage for mine that Adelaide Oval).

Im sure you'll be fine, but a fair bit of work to do with the coaching staff over the week to get players switched on.

Maybe you just got ahead of yourselves a bit. Go back to basics and things will be fine.

 

[SickQwon]

Here we go...

 

[CrowInFiji]

Maybe you just got ahead of yourselves a bit.

This.Makes.No.Sense.

What the media and people on forums think has no bearing on what an AFL club thinks of themselves.

Our Rd 1 performance wasn't a display of arrogance - they tried a gameplan against a team who were highly organised and it didnt work.

End of story. There is no evidence that the crows went into that game expecting to win and given our record against Hawthorn and the year we had last year I doubt it would have been the case.

Way to show your ignorance.

 

[70lethal]

1st 2 rounds results have gone Adelaide's way with Saints and Bulldogs winning both and Freo and GC opening their accounts.
Finals contenders Essendon, Sydney and Melbourne starting poorly and Richmond hit with key injuries are increasing the odds of Adelaide finishing higher with a soft draw.
8 out of next 10 at Adelaide oval.

 

[La Dispute]

Adelaide lost to one likely bottom 10 team and looked average against another bottom 10 team.

Carlton have been inconsistent in their first few games against a top and mid-level team.

Still too small a sample size to make a comment about the fortunes of either team at this stage.