Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

Which team has the better future prospects on-field?

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doppleganger said:
Fevola
Kennedy
Jacobs

Trading for Warnock when you already had Kreuzer, Hampson and Jacobs on your list was madness
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Carlton’s 2000s ruck obsession was a thing of beauty, in a truly tragic way. It’s vastly underrated - arguably the biggest reason our last rebuild failed and we ended up in such a tragic position, particularly after the AFL brought in the sub rule and teams started heavily rotating mids, which killed the idea of playing 2x ruckman...

From 2001-2008 we drafted or traded in at least 1 ruckman every year, and used the following:

National draft picks: 1, 14, 16, 17, 24, 30, 56, 57, 72, 73

PSD picks (pre free agency when these were actually useful): 1, 1, 9

Rookie picks: 17, 50, 78

The highlight was 2006 where we used picks 17 and 56, and psd pick 1. Of course we then made all of those irrelevant by using pick 1 in 2007 on a ruckman. And then traded 3x picks for another one in 2008, then added another with our last pick in the rookie draft who went on to be the best of the lot (Jacobs)

Oh, and after all of that, when we fell apart in 2015 we finished the year with our number 1 ruckman being... Cameron Wood

It’s almost funny in hindsight...
 
I like the look of the Carlton side on paper for tonight's game.

The Blues and Lions playing 2 of the top 3 teams in the competition in their opening fixture, it'll be interesting to see how they compare and perform against elite opposition.
 

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Both have a lot of young talent (as you'd hope given their draft position in recent years) but I think Carlton have a much better chance of retaining the players therefore I suspect Carlton have the better future
 
nahnah said:
Both have a lot of young talent (as you'd hope given their draft position in recent years) but I think Carlton have a much better chance of retaining the players therefore I suspect Carlton have the better future
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Such an overplayed myth. We've had one of the best retention rates since Fagan has taken over.

Makes it easier for a Victorian team to get 'homesick' talent back to their mummies
 
Rubix WingMan said:
Such an overplayed myth. We've had one of the best retention rates since Fagan has taken over.

Makes it easier for a Victorian team to get 'homesick' talent back to their mummies
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Not to sound like a troll but you did lose your captain just a few months ago..

Not sure going back to their ‘mummies’ is entirely accurate (and I know it’s used loosely) but to state the obvious some people just prefer Melbourne as a city, playing at the G etc

I do think the AFL need to limit the players power to change club though
 
jason pm said:
I like the look of the Carlton side on paper for tonight's game.

The Blues and Lions playing 2 of the top 3 teams in the competition in their opening fixture, it'll be interesting to see how they compare and perform against elite opposition.
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Yeah should be interesting. It's hard to see Carlton getting the win but I reckon Brisbane are a real shot to upset the Eagles at home. Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing the new additions for both sides and how well these two teams develop this year.
 

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nahnah said:
Not to sound like a troll but you did lose your captain just a few months ago..

Not sure going back to their ‘mummies’ is entirely accurate (and I know it’s used loosely) but to state the obvious some people just prefer Melbourne as a city, playing at the G etc

I do think the AFL need to limit the players power to change club though
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I am afraid I must agree.Whilst we have improved greatly in player retention and welfare we will always be vulnerable to players wanting the bigtime and at a basic level being tag teamed by Melbourne clubs in relation to salary .
 
btdg said:
Carlton’s 2000s ruck obsession was a thing of beauty, in a truly tragic way. It’s vastly underrated - arguably the biggest reason our last rebuild failed and we ended up in such a tragic position, particularly after the AFL brought in the sub rule and teams started heavily rotating mids, which killed the idea of playing 2x ruckman...

From 2001-2008 we drafted or traded in at least 1 ruckman every year, and used the following:

National draft picks: 1, 14, 16, 17, 24, 30, 56, 57, 72, 73

PSD picks (pre free agency when these were actually useful): 1, 1, 9

Rookie picks: 17, 50, 78

The highlight was 2006 where we used picks 17 and 56, and psd pick 1. Of course we then made all of those irrelevant by using pick 1 in 2007 on a ruckman. And then traded 3x picks for another one in 2008, then added another with our last pick in the rookie draft who went on to be the best of the lot (Jacobs)

Oh, and after all of that, when we fell apart in 2015 we finished the year with our number 1 ruckman being... Cameron Wood

It’s almost funny in hindsight...
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The funny bit is a Carlton fan trying to claim that Carlton went small back then!!

Not only that but that the ‘smart’ play was what Essendon did by drafting a hack tall like Gumbleton instead of getting Gibbs.
 
nahnah said:
Not to sound like a troll but you did lose your captain just a few months ago..

Not sure going back to their ‘mummies’ is entirely accurate (and I know it’s used loosely) but to state the obvious some people just prefer Melbourne as a city, playing at the G etc

I do think the AFL need to limit the players power to change club though
Click to expand...

Yes we did but it turned out well for us with two first rounders. Much better for our future and our culture. As Rubix said in general our retention rate has been very good since 2013 (which was an aberration)
 
I think a reasonable and realistic expectation for Carlton would be something like Brisbane last season: didn't massively improve the number of wins, but had a big increase in percentage that proves they were at least competitive in nearly every game.

Brisbane copped one massive belting, but apart from that they fought pretty hard even in defeat. Even games like North where they were taken apart early, they at least prevented the margin from blowing out to ridiculous levels.

So to see Carlton come back from "how far Richmond" at quarter time, to make a genuine contest of it by the last change, is extremely promising. Even without the win, this sort of thing is exactly what Blues fans would be looking for.
 
MisterMarcus said:
I think a reasonable and realistic expectation for Carlton would be something like Brisbane last season: didn't massively improve the number of wins, but had a big increase in percentage that proves they were at least competitive in nearly every game.

Brisbane copped one massive belting, but apart from that they fought pretty hard even in defeat. Even games like North where they were taken apart early, they at least prevented the margin from blowing out to ridiculous levels.

So to see Carlton come back from "how far Richmond" at quarter time, to make a genuine contest of it by the last change, is extremely promising. Even without the win, this sort of thing is exactly what Blues fans would be looking for.
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Reasonable assessment I'd say. The Lions really should've finished closer to 10 wins last year imo, so many close losses.

I think 8+ wins for us should be an aspirational target, not the end game. A much better % is probably an even better indicator of development at this stage, as you said.

Given Richmond's start last night, you'd have expected an 80+ point smashing last year. To then cut the margin back to two goals at 3/4T (probably should've been closer with the relatively easy misses from Setterfield and co) and have Richmond stuck in their half for periods of the third quarter was really heartening. Richmond pulling away in the last was no surprise really, they've done it to much better sides than us in the last couple of years.

Biggest disappointment by far was Charlie Curnow, no idea what's going on there. Hopefully all the positive publicity hasn't gone to his head.
 
RudyBlue said:
Reasonable assessment I'd say. The Lions really should've finished closer to 10 wins last year imo, so many close losses.

I think 8+ wins for us should be an aspirational target, not the end game. A much better % is probably an even better indicator of development at this stage, as you said.

Given Richmond's start last night, you'd have expected an 80+ point smashing last year. To then cut the margin back to two goals at 3/4T (probably should've been closer with the relatively easy misses from Setterfield and co) and have Richmond stuck in their half for periods of the third quarter was really heartening. Richmond pulling away in the last was no surprise really, they've done it to much better sides than us in the last couple of years.

Biggest disappointment by far was Charlie Curnow, no idea what's going on there. Hopefully all the positive publicity hasn't gone to his head.
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Charlie was awful last night.

And yes I am thinking a similar season to Brisbane last year is most likely for us, if we don’t have the injuries of last year.

We didn’t have injuries from last night, and have more coming back soon at this stage. With our massive list turnover of the past 3-4 years we need to get some cohesion and a settled line up.
 
RudyBlue said:
Reasonable assessment I'd say. The Lions really should've finished closer to 10 wins last year imo, so many close losses.

I think 8+ wins for us should be an aspirational target, not the end game. A much better % is probably an even better indicator of development at this stage, as you said.

Given Richmond's start last night, you'd have expected an 80+ point smashing last year. To then cut the margin back to two goals at 3/4T (probably should've been closer with the relatively easy misses from Setterfield and co) and have Richmond stuck in their half for periods of the third quarter was really heartening. Richmond pulling away in the last was no surprise really, they've done it to much better sides than us in the last couple of years.

Biggest disappointment by far was Charlie Curnow, no idea what's going on there. Hopefully all the positive publicity hasn't gone to his head.
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Going from a 2 win sub 60% season, to an 8+ win the next year is very much aspirational.

The last teams to finish with sub 60% and 2 wins you have to go back to GWS and Melbourne in 2013.

In 2014
The Dees went 4 wins and % of 68
GWS went 6 wins and % of 76

The GWS space is an optimistic goal, Melbourne more realistic.
 
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