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Autopsy AFL 2025 First Preliminary Final - Pies v Lions Sat Sept 20th 5:15pm EST (MCG)

  • Thread starter Thread starter Wosh
  • Start date Start date
  • Tagged users Tagged users None

Who will win and by how much?

  • Pies by a goal or less

    Votes: 12 6.6%
  • Pies by 7 - 20

    Votes: 55 30.4%
  • Pies by a lot

    Votes: 14 7.7%
  • Lions by a goal or less

    Votes: 15 8.3%
  • Lions by 7 - 20

    Votes: 63 34.8%
  • Lions by a lot

    Votes: 18 9.9%
  • Draw

    Votes: 4 2.2%

  • Total voters
    181
  • Poll closed .

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my tip for the line up pies is:

fb: howe frampton iq
cb: maynard moore pendles
c: josh daicos long houston
cf: hill checkers mccreery
ff: elliott timmy shultz
r: cox de goey nick daicos
int: cameron side long mcstay
sub: either lipinski or whe

Pies win by 5 goals
 
Early tip Pies win this by 27 points.
Bring that same game of that from the qf they win this by say 4 goals.
I think apart from a touch an go Checkers Pies arent missing anyone.
Plus extra fresh as well.
Pies beat them also at the gabba people forget about this as well.
Only bet us when it was the lions final and kind of had to win that to stay alive.
Now preliminary Pies will be better this time around.
And wet cool weather doesnt help the lions.
Going to be showers all day long and on the cool side.
Better suited to the Pies style of game.
So for now i have the Pies here by 27 points.
Be tight early on but lions will be spent half time tho.
Pies are just a bit more fresher which helps.
Everyone always fails to mention about that game in April that we came off of a 5 day break after playing in 34 degree heat in Adelaide. We were cooked, couldn’t run.
 

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Yeah agreed. He’s quite a player now. We’ll have to keep him in check

Loved the personal change this week. Rayner played deep against the Cats as Day just wasn't the scoring or marking threat we needed and learned that robbing Peter to pay Paul was not going to cut it in finals. Two rucks isn't ideal, but the opposition have to keep Oscar in check due to his height and it allowed us to get Rayner up the ground and we saw the damaging half forward he's become once again. Having Oscar down there also meant Logan had one less defender to worry about and had an impact, while Gallop finally looks to have belief in his ability at AFL level. To out mark Collins the way he did to kick his first AFL goal was incredible (and finished with 7 marks, including 3 inside 50).
 
Loved the personal change this week. Rayner played deep against the Cats as Day just wasn't the scoring or marking threat we needed and learned that robbing Peter to pay Paul was not going to cut it in finals. Two rucks isn't ideal, but the opposition have to keep Oscar in check due to his height and it allowed us to get Rayner up the ground and we saw the damaging half forward he's become once again. Having Oscar down there also meant Logan had one less defender to worry about and had an impact, while Gallop finally looks to have belief in his ability at AFL level. To out mark Collins the way he did to kick his first AFL goal was incredible (and finished with 7 marks, including 3 inside 50).
Just calm down a bit mate we’re flat out finding 2 key backs. All this is great of course until the ball hits the deck..
 
Revised weather is more for cloudy and drier conditions.
Cool and cloudy.
My source is Accuweather.
Not as showers as much.
Be a bit iffy but maybe get a few light showers.
Still be cool tho.
 

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Pies throughout the year have shown they are an elite pressure team and thus not easy to get any system working when they are on. Lions on the other habd have shown that they either beat teams very comfortably or lose comfortably. My bet it will be over by early in 3rd quarter. Let's see which way it goes though...
 
This is the toughest tip I've had to make, this finals series, could go anyway. I think the Lions might be more battle hardened and their recent form is a better than Collingwood's. I think they've been very flaky besides that Crows win, and I think 2 weeks off in the last 4 weeks is a detriment to them, too.
 
This is the toughest tip I've had to make, this finals series, could go anyway. I think the Lions might be more battle hardened and their recent form is a better than Collingwood's. I think they've been very flaky besides that Crows win, and I think 2 weeks off in the last 4 weeks is a detriment to them, too.

If both teams are on point, I think it'll come down to how well the Lions shut down Nick. The midfield depth of Brisbane would be a lot to beat if Nick is shut down. They are much more balanced without Neale in the team - no shade on Lach but the dynamic midfield combination of Dunkley, McCluggage, Ashcroft, Bailey, Rayner and Ashcroft jr gives us so many options, whereas when Lachie is in the team, he can only play the one position and it means leaving one of Bailey and Rayner out of the main rotations which makes us a bit more predictable and easy to plan for.
 
If both teams are on point, I think it'll come down to how well the Lions shut down Nick. The midfield depth of Brisbane would be a lot to beat if Nick is shut down. They are much more balanced without Neale in the team - no shade on Lach but the dynamic midfield combination of Dunkley, McCluggage, Ashcroft, Bailey, Rayner and Ashcroft jr gives us so many options, whereas when Lachie is in the team, he can only play the one position and it means leaving one of Bailey and Rayner out of the main rotations which makes us a bit more predictable and easy to plan for.
This is where DeGoey back to full midfield minutes is a huge boost for us. And Steady Neddy Long
 

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