Why history suggests Fremantle and/or GWS misses the finals in 2026

[Obeanie1]

It's hard to see Hawthorn or Gold Coast missing, so I think it's reasonable to suggest either side could miss.

Brisbane Geelong Hawthorn are probably the only near absolute locks for top 8 .

Look how close the teams were between 5th and 9th.

With Dogs, Swans and Saints missing out.

Any of the teams finishing 5th to 8th could miss.

And Collingwood falling hard also on the cards at some point would not surprise.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Hard to make a case for any team dropping out of the 8. Collingwood probably the most likely.
Having said that, I think Sydney and St Kilda are a good chance to make the 8 so something has to give.

Hopefully not Freo.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Just as amazing how many threads you create on the Hawks board.

Feel free to add something to the thread.

Not apologising that I hold a veiw different to one eyed supporters. A veiw supported by some pretty in depth analysis and matrics used by the industry and media.

For some reason you just don't like people having a different opinion to your own.

I"m quite literally a Hawthorn board mod, it's my job to create and curate threads.

This thread is about the historical instances of the elimination final losers missing finals the following year, and asking which one of GWS or Fremantle will likely miss finals, knowing this.


Hawthorn did not lose their elimination final, they then also won their Semi final. That you try so hard in every thread to predict a Hawthorn demise, even when they're nothing to do with the topic at hand, is amazing.

 

[masai tu]

I’d have Sydney, WB and Carlton in next year with Collingwood, Geelong and GWS out.

Brisbane
Sydney
Carlton
Gold Coast
Adelaide
Fremantle
Hawthorn
WB

I'm not understanding why the Bullies are being pumped up for next season. They fizzled out this season, have not addressed their backline issues and I can't see the upside.

What am I not seeing ?.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I'm not understanding why the Bullies are being pumped up for next season. They fizzled out this season, have not addressed their backline issues and I can't see the upside.

What am I not seeing ?.

They might be getting Frosty.

 

[Obeanie1]

I"m quite literally a Hawthorn board mod, it's my job to create and curate threads.

This thread is about the historical instances of the elimination final losers missing finals the following year, and asking which one of GWS or Fremantle will likely miss finals, knowing this.


Hawthorn did not lose their elimination final, they then also won their Semi final. That you try so hard in every thread to predict a Hawthorn demise, even when they're nothing to do with the topic at hand, is amazing.

It's your job to create every 2nd thread? Don't see that on other boards.

Pretty obvious you don't like opinions that don't match your own when it comes to the Hawks.

IMO and others GWS and Freo have stronger lists than the Hawks and they just got stronger over trade period. Hawks went backwards.

So in regards to the thread title I can see more likelihood Freo and GWS improving next season.

IMO Hawks will need a ton of improvement from the kids and improved availability to make the top 8.

Mitchell basically said that after the finals loss. If we want to improve we can't stay the same.

You don't agree with this opinion. Got it.

Your entitled to your opinion.

I have mine and it's based on comments from your own clubs coach, industry data and metrics.

 

[Obeanie1]

I'm not understanding why the Bullies are being pumped up for next season. They fizzled out this season, have not addressed their backline issues and I can't see the upside.

What am I not seeing ?.

The young talls.

Busslinger CHB
Darcy KP Fwd / Ruck
Croft KP Fwd

They are years off peaking.

 

[Freomaniac]

I won't be shocked if dockers don't make finals next season.

9th to 12th placed finish is possible.

Keep in mind dockers could of missed out on finals in 2025 with a 15 win and 8 loss record had they lost to the dogs in the final round

 

[demondavey]

They might be getting Frosty.

Isn’t the worst get as a KPD

 

[demondavey]

Hard to make a case for any team dropping out of the 8. Collingwood probably the most likely.
Having said that, I think Sydney and St Kilda are a good chance to make the 8 so something has to give.

Hopefully not Freo.

Swans will come in. Don’t think Fremantle miss. Saints on paper should improve a lot but it depends on how Lyon has them playing and it depends on how they’re playing Marshall and TDK. Clearly one needs to go forward. Could be a Gawn & Grundy scenario.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It's your job to create every 2nd thread? Don't see that on other boards.

Pretty obvious you don't like opinions that don't match your own when it comes to the Hawks.

IMO and others GWS and Freo have stronger lists than the Hawks and they just got stronger over trade period. Hawks went backwards.

So in regards to the thread title I can see more likelihood Freo and GWS improving next season.

IMO Hawks will need a ton of improvement from the kids and improved availability to make the top 8.

Mitchell basically said that after the finals loss. If we want to improve we can't stay the same.

You don't agree with this opinion. Got it.

Your entitled to your opinion.

I have mine and it's based on comments from your own clubs coach, industry data and metrics.

This thread is quite literally about the two losing elimination finalists, and how 1 will historically not make finals the following year.

It has nothing to do with your Hawthorn obsession.

 

[Obeanie1]

This thread is quite literally about the two losing elimination finalists, and how 1 will historically not make finals the following year.

It has nothing to do with your Hawthorn obsession.

Well you should let everyone know, every poster who discusses all the clubs around both those teams.

I'm reading comments from multiple posters about Geelong, Suns, Lions, Hawks and the Dogs.

Who is safe, who might go up and go down.

But if you feel it's off topic to discuss the teams either side of Freo and GWS then fine.

We all should just stop talking about those other teams in here.

PS Only one Hawthorn obsessed poster here. And it isn't me.

 

[Obeanie1]

Well this thread died.

Wonder why?

 

[Seattle Mariners]

Well this thread died.

Wonder why?

I'll reignite it.

I tip GWS out of the 2 sides to miss finals next year.

Just think they're ever so slowly going backwards under Kingsley, have lost a lot of role players in Perryman, Cumming and Peatling, have lost the young small forward with the helmet to an ACL (name escapes me) and have brought in an absolute circus in Oliver.

 

[rye]

I'll reignite it.

I tip GWS out of the 2 sides to miss finals next year.

Just think they're ever so slowly going backwards under Kingsley, have lost a lot of role players in Perryman, Cumming and Peatling, have lost the young small forward with the helmet to an ACL (name escapes me) and have brought in an absolute circus in Oliver.

kelly missing most of next year and the decline of coniglio are bigger than any of these players leaving imo. i think they are somewhat easy to cover for though with how deep gws bats in terms of overall talent.

oliver having a career resurgence and hogan staying fit could make them a pretty scary proposition compared to their 2025 team. cadman and callaghan look like they could go to another level as well.

i will concede GWS is a team i probably consistently overrate. seem to always turn it on against brisbane.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I will be absolutely gobsmacked if we miss the 8 with the additions we have added.

We had a awful season where everything could go wrong has, multiple weeks without a forward line(had to use defenders) and our most important player Gulden missed 16 rounds despite that we finished with 12 wins and were a tiny chance of still making 8th.

Cox will be on thin ice if we miss the 8 next season.

 

[Obeanie1]

I'll reignite it.

I tip GWS out of the 2 sides to miss finals next year.

Just think they're ever so slowly going backwards under Kingsley, have lost a lot of role players in Perryman, Cumming and Peatling, have lost the young small forward with the helmet to an ACL (name escapes me) and have brought in an absolute circus in Oliver.

They trade out a gun every couple of years for overs and replenish with top picks.

Their kids are made to earn their debuts and selection, most come in with plenty of VFL experience.

And they pick up trades of quality players regularly for unders as well. Hogan, Stringer, Bedford, and now Oliver.

Calahan at 22 is a dead set gun inside mid covering Kelly.

Would require an implosion of trust for that list drop out of finals IMO. Simply too much talent.

 

[Seattle Mariners]

They trade out a gun every couple of years for overs and replenish with top picks.

Their kids are made to earn their debuts and selection, most come in with plenty of VFL experience.

And they pick up trades of quality players regularly for unders as well. Hogan, Stringer, Bedford, and now Oliver.

Calahan at 22 is a dead set gun inside mid covering Kelly.

Would require an implosion of trust for that list drop out of finals IMO. Simply too much talent.

So Freo miss the finals then (unless a 13 year trend is finally broken)

 

[Seattle Mariners]

I will be absolutely gobsmacked if we miss the 8 with the additions we have added.

We had a awful season where everything could go wrong has, multiple weeks without a forward line(had to use defenders) and our most important player Gulden missed 16 rounds despite that we finished with 12 wins and were a tiny chance of still making 8th.

Cox will be on thin ice if we miss the 8 next season.

All good points. Sydney are a definite possibility for finals next year.

I get that you had injuries in the first half of the year but geez did you put in some stinkers. Losing to Melbourne by 9 goals and then Adelaide by 15 goals in back to back weeks was completely unacceptable and a black mark next to Cox’s name.

 

[Dirty_banchez]

It’ll all come down to the fixture and which teams get the ‘lucky’ double-ups against the weaker sides.


Freo are fortunate that we’ll face the Eagles twice.


My theory is: if you play most of the top-four teams at home and get favourable double-ups against bottom 4 and declining sides, you’re pretty much set to make the eight.

 

[Obeanie1]

So Freo miss the finals then (unless a 13 year trend is finally broken)

The trend gets broken then.....

Given how close those 4 to 5 sides were the " trend could be any of them".

Traditionally there isn't 4 points and % separating 4 to 5 sides.

 

[Mr Meow]

It’ll all come down to the fixture and which teams get the ‘lucky’ double-ups against the weaker sides.


Freo are fortunate that we’ll face the Eagles twice.


My theory is: if you play most of the top-four teams at home and get favourable double-ups against bottom 4 and declining sides, you’re pretty much set to make the eight.

Sydney and Carlton cocked up big time in 2025 then.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I'll reignite it.

I tip GWS out of the 2 sides to miss finals next year.

Just think they're ever so slowly going backwards under Kingsley, have lost a lot of role players in Perryman, Cumming and Peatling, have lost the young small forward with the helmet to an ACL (name escapes me) and have brought in an absolute circus in Oliver.

Imo, GWS are tbe most likely out of the 2 to miss finals if the trend is to continue.

BTW, great OP.

 

[Freomaniac]

Swans will come in. Don’t think Fremantle miss. Saints on paper should improve a lot but it depends on how Lyon has them playing and it depends on how they’re playing Marshall and TDK. Clearly one needs to go forward. Could be a Gawn & Grundy scenario.

Dockers have a sad history of making Elim finals and missing out the next season regardless of the result.

2003: Elim final vs Essendon at home. Lost by 7 or 8 goals. Missed out of finals the next season in 2004.

2010: beat the hawks in an Elim final at home by 5 goals. Missed out on finals the next season in 2011.

2012: beat cats at the MCG by 16 points. Made a grand final the next season.

2022: beat the dogs in an Elim final at home by 2 goals. Finished 14th the next season in 2023.

2025: lost a home Elim final to gold coast by a point.

History says dockers are likely to not make finals the next season.

It won't shock me considering the ladder in 2025. Dockers can easily slip by 5 or 10 percent and finish 9th to 12th in 2026.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It’s Freo, it’s always Freo, as above.