Review Match Simulation Pies v GWS Friday 20 Feb 11.00am Bundoora

[sr36]

Adding Steene to that equation, yes

Might depend on how we structure rotations, but I think he's a long way awY from being up to playing as a forward who chops out in the ruck.

 

[Bianconeri]

Wonder how HDMs cricket skills are. Give the state of Australian t20 he may have a better chance of making it into the national side than he has of hitting the side of the barn with a footy.

He’ll probably have a good chance of making Italy’s side

 

[ksardog]

189cm Debolfo? Not sure he’d fix our KPD issues at AFL level

Who else we got if we get injuries in that part of the ground
We relying on McInnes and Smit , neither even started their careers as defenders

Was impressed with him last year in the VFL, big bodied for his height
Not much else out there, and a definite upgrade on the likes of Dean who we gave multiple years to

 

[Gone Critical]

I suspect role flexibility will prove the biggest differentiator between Buller and West. With no Hill the secondary ruck role from a KPF is going to be crucial. Whilst we may be forced to bite the bullet at some point I don’t see the two in direct competition. For me the depth chart looks like:

• McStay/ Membrey/ West
• Buller/ Steene/ Howes

Agree they are not in direct contention but there are others who may do the secondary ruck role. At this point Buller has 8 career hit outs so is very inexperienced. I can see a scenario where West is outperforming him as a forward and demanding a spot and that may then lead McStay taking up the 2nd ruck role.

While I think Buller is the most likely he is not yet a confirmed selection who will definitely play like a Schultz or Perryman was.

 

[SquirrelGrrripp]

My observations from the game… (Apologies for the length)

Pre-season intensity and line-ups aside, I still can’t help but feel a little underwhelmed.

I get that it’s the first hit-out of the year and a lot of the boys are very early in their AFL journeys (some barely started), but I walked away slightly dissatisfied.

Maybe it’s just a lack of cohesion at this stage, limited familiarity with the game plan, and a very junior defensive unit. But my main concerns were more around team structure, ball movement, foot skills, and the tendency when linking our forward handball chains to the wrong static options.

I’ll caveat this next part with young players adjusting to AFL tempo and a bit of pre-season rust, but the ongoing frustration for me is the decision-making with forward handballs - both static and on the move. It felt like a carryover from last season.

I won’t go too hard on the defence, given we were missing the majority of our regular senior backline, and we were seriously undermanned in height and experience.

Some lingering frustrations. We continue to give up those low and high pocket first kicks from minor scores. I know we set up structurally for that field position, but we just can’t seem to consistently shut down the easy exit from defence - especially the second and third possessions on the switch, and those short-angle kicks into the corner of the square. Teams seem to be able to manage this consistently against us and it opens up the field for both slingshot attacking options and high probability forward thrusts.

I can also barely remember a clean transition through the centre square. GWS dominated that space. And when we did try to go inboard, our foot skills were poor. Further, when we created turnovers, we regularly burned the next kick, which immediately flipped field position back the other way and compounded the issues - totally unsettling our defensive structure.

That said, I do think (and hope) that once the boys adjust to the speed of the game, we’ll see them hold the ball a fraction longer, absorb perceived pressure better, improve the execution, and make smarter decisions in our kicking and handball chains.

Jamie, Ed, McStay and Beau were excellent. I heard someone say Beau only had five disposals, which surprised me - his impact felt far greater than that suggests (I think that was also noted). JDG and Maynard were solid. Steele, Anderson, Cochran, Parker and Steene also played their roles well.

On Ed.. People have mentioned his kicking efficiency but on a couple of occasions, particularly when breaking from the centre, it looked more like indecision than pure skill error. He seemed caught between playing the team role and backing himself to nail the long goal. Still, I thought he played a very strong game, and it should give him real confidence heading into the season.

I’m probably being slightly unreasonable in my disappointment given the circumstances. I think it’s more about wanting to see this new generation really take off, rather than ignoring the obvious mitigating factors.

With most of the senior players back next week, I’m confident we’ll see a much more cohesive and settled unit.

No injuries was also an excellent result.

 

[Gone Critical]

I’d happily persist with Buller all season, and don’t see any reason why we should place any expectations at all on West as a second year player.

The reason why we should have expectation on West is we need some of our kids to become good, very good or better AFL players.

That group come more from your high draft picks but we don't have them so our group need to outperform a bit. Of the kids that we have drafted in the last 4 seasons, post Nick, West to me looks to have the most potential. Almost all the drafted kids that go onto become good, very good or better play AFL level as 2nd years.

If West has a 2nd year where he plays VFL footy he could still make the good or better range but the chances for him doing so are significantly diminished.

Players who come through the draft and end up being good play early. Its such a strong rule. Rucks excepted. If you get such players from later draft picks its gold.

I would love Charlie to play 20 games this year and if he does we very likely have our leader of our forward line for a decade. If he plays VFL all year his long term future isnt that bright.

 

[Gone Critical]

Just to illustrate the point above I looked at Brissies 2025 flag team..

5 players in that team would classify as KPPs. All were later draft picks, all played early.

Andrews, pick 72, 36 games 1st 2 seasons
Lester, pick 28, 22 games 1st 2 seasons
Forte, pick 22, 25 games 1st 2 seasons
Morris, pick 31, 45 games 1st 2 seasons
Gallop, pick 42 , 6 games season 1 in a premiership team.

And surprise surprise the elite player, Andrews, and the potential elite Morris play more than the good solid 200 gamers. Lions have destroyed it with this recruiting.

Run through lists of players any way you want and you will keep seeing the theme good players play early.

I want West to be a player like those above so I want him playing plenty this year.

 

[Harry O]

Who else we got if we get injuries in that part of the ground
We relying on McInnes and Smit , neither even started their careers as defenders

Was impressed with him last year in the VFL, big bodied for his height
Not much else out there, and a definite upgrade on the likes of Dean who we gave multiple years to

Upgrade on Dean? Not yet

 

[Harry O]

The reason why we should have expectation on West is we need some of our kids to become good, very good or better AFL players.

That group come more from your high draft picks but we don't have them so our group need to outperform a bit. Of the kids that we have drafted in the last 4 seasons, post Nick, West to me looks to have the most potential. Almost all the drafted kids that go onto become good, very good or better play AFL level as 2nd years.

If West has a 2nd year where he plays VFL footy he could still make the good or better range but the chances for him doing so are significantly diminished.

Players who come through the draft and end up being good play early. Its such a strong rule. Rucks excepted. If you get such players from later draft picks its gold.

I would love Charlie to play 20 games this year and if he does we very likely have our leader of our forward line for a decade. If he plays VFL all year his long term future isnt that bright.

You really do seem obsessed with this if they don’t become a regular in your first 2 seasons you won’t make it belief

So many examples of this being a flawed philosophy. Especially for key forwards like West

 

[Gone Critical]

You really do seem obsessed with this if they don’t become a regular in your first 2 seasons you won’t make it belief

So many examples of this being a flawed philosophy. Especially for key forwards like West

Agree that I do get obsessed. Character flaw of mine. I apologise

My original hypothesis on the was for small and mediums, not playing 20 games in your 1st 3 seasons correlated strongly with not having a 100 game career or better. I think Tom Mitchell, Josh D and Crisp were the going around at that time who broke the rule.

It holds up pretty well for the bigs too but not ruckmen

When you say there are so many examples give them to me.

I dont think you will find there are many of the good KPFs who were not playing a reasonable amount of AFL footy in their 2nd season.

 

[Seedsfan]

I haven’t followed a lot over the preseason.

But today’s game… beyond rustiness, just highlights that the squad is a little threadbare in under 23 talent.

Certainly excuses for first and 2nd year players.. but players longer than that really need to be showing a lot and pushing hard for selection

I’m sure some of them will come on… but outside of Allan, none of them are top 20 picks.

Short of bringing in an immense under 26 talent like Ben king, butters… pies need to hang onto its first round picks (and preferably keep 2nd round picks) for the foreseeable future… because there is a danger in bottoming out with the loss of several 30+ senior players in the next 18 months

Our best two that fit that age bracket didn’t play in Nick and Ned. It’s one unofficial practice game. Not sure the need to be so negative

 

[Rorzza]

Our best two that fit that age bracket didn’t play in Nick and Ned. It’s one unofficial practice game. Not sure the need to be so negative

Nic and Ned are not under 23's.

 

[Gone Critical]

You really do seem obsessed with this if they don’t become a regular in your first 2 seasons you won’t make it belief

So many examples of this being a flawed philosophy. Especially for key forwards like West

Also I think I may not be explaining this well

Buller to me is a likely role player if he can establish a spot in the 23

West has shown enough to say he could potentially become a good or better KPF in the comp. One that finishes regularly in the top 20 of the goal kicking and leads our goals. The next Miho or better. If he is to be that the chances are much higher if he continues to improve and plays a good bit of AFL. Can he be that if he doesnt? Yes but its significantly less likely.

As an exercise I looked at the leading KPF goal kickers in 2025 and looked at their games for their 1st 2 seasons assuming they came through the draft. this is what I found

Cameron 37 games
Gunston 14 games
King 31 games
Thilthorpe 25 games
Naughton 41 games
Georgiadis 28 games
Morris 45 games
Darcy 7 games (injury influenced)
Hogan 20 games (missed 1st season with back)
Neale 2 games
Cadman 35 games
Treacy 19 games
Chol 1 games
Fogarty 14 games
Larkey 2 games
Walker 14 games

Thats the 16 best KPF goal kickers from 2025. Everyone played, most a lot

Chol was a rookie and on a development pathway
Neale and Larkey are the exceptions. Year 2 Larkey kiced 41 g in 17 g in the VFL but had Ben Brown kicking 60+ in the AFL. If West is kicking 40 in the AFL I dont think we have the KPF stocks that will keep him out.

SO I want West to follow the path most of the players who end up being top end KPFs take, play a lot in your 2nd dseason. If not I hope he is Nick Larkey.

 

[jathanas]

Also I think I may not be explaining this well

Buller to me is a likely role player if he can establish a spot in the 23

West has shown enough to say he could potentially become a good or better KPF in the comp. One that finishes regularly in the top 20 of the goal kicking and leads our goals. The next Miho or better. If he is to be that the chances are much higher if he continues to improve and plays a good bit of AFL. Can he be that if he doesnt? Yes but its significantly less likely.

As an exercise I looked at the leading KPF goal kickers in 2025 and looked at their games for their 1st 2 seasons assuming they came through the draft. this is what I found

Cameron 37 games
Gunston 14 games
King 31 games
Thilthorpe 25 games
Naughton 41 games
Georgiadis 28 games
Morris 45 games
Darcy 7 games (injury influenced)
Hogan 20 games (missed 1st season with back)
Neale 2 games
Cadman 35 games
Treacy 19 games
Chol 1 games
Fogarty 14 games
Larkey 2 games
Walker 14 games

Thats the 16 best KPF goal kickers from 2025. Everyone played, most a lot

Chol was a rookie and on a development pathway
Neale and Larkey are the exceptions. Year 2 Larkey kiced 41 g in 17 g in the VFL but had Ben Brown kicking 60+ in the AFL. If West is kicking 40 in the AFL I dont think we have the KPF stocks that will keep him out.

SO I want West to follow the path most of the players who end up being top end KPFs take, play a lot in your 2nd dseason. If not I hope he is Nick Larkey.

Compelling data - your point is strong, GC. There will always be an exception if we look for one, but the trend doesn't lie; games early on are a strong predictor of future success.

I see upside in West, enough to suggest that he will be looked at as a draft steal. Would have played more games last year if he wasn't injured, and will feature in more than a handful in '26.

As an aside, your ability to compile this report shows that not everyone in your family is a luddite.

 

[sr36]

My original hypothesis on the was for small and mediums, not playing 20 games in your 1st 3 seasons correlated strongly with not having a 100 game career or better. I think Tom Mitchell, Josh D and Crisp were the going around at that time who broke the rule.

And Mitchell was good when he played early, but they were just so stacked with his type.

Even the convert recruits who come in and succeed tend to be ready to play early. Keane a rare exception. You don't get recruited if you don't have the physical capability - above the shoulders is the big differentiator.

 

[Seedsfan]

Just to illustrate the point above I looked at Brissies 2025 flag team..

5 players in that team would classify as KPPs. All were later draft picks, all played early.

Andrews, pick 72, 36 games 1st 2 seasons
Lester, pick 28, 22 games 1st 2 seasons
Forte, pick 22, 25 games 1st 2 seasons
Morris, pick 31, 45 games 1st 2 seasons
Gallop, pick 42 , 6 games season 1 in a premiership team.

And surprise surprise the elite player, Andrews, and the potential elite Morris play more than the good solid 200 gamers. Lions have destroyed it with this recruiting.

Run through lists of players any way you want and you will keep seeing the theme good players play early.

I want West to be a player like those above so I want him playing plenty this year.

The Lions were also dog shit when Andrews got there. Sure he has grown into one of the games best defenders

For context they went 7-37 in those two seasons and were trying to pump games into kids. Schache also played 27 games in his first two seasons. Being gifted games doesn’t guarantee success

 

[ksardog]

Upgrade on Dean? Not yet

Yeh that’s true at the moment, but I was never a fan of Dean succeeding at AFL level, you just can’t make it in todays football being that slow if you don’t have a weapon
I see more of a chance that a player like DeBolfo could be a handy replacement if needed, and less a liability

 

[Seedsfan]

Dermot Brereton played over 70 games in the VFL - in preparation for an AFL career, as did many other Hawks players.
West playing a full season in the VFL will do his future prospects no harm - or “ significantly diminish” his prospects of being a gun as you suggest.
Let’s not kid ourselves that somehow this is a make or break season for West.
That’s just completely illogical and unrealistic IMO.

The whole playing early debate boils down to the fact that the best prospects end up at the worst teams due to the draft and play straight away as the clubs that pick them see getting games into them as investing into their future.

Players like Selwood or Daicos who come into a good team and contribute from day one are rare

 

[No SPIN]

The whole playing early debate boils down to the fact that the best prospects end up at the worst teams due to the draft and play straight away as the clubs that pick them see getting games into them as investing into their future.

Players like Selwood or Daicos who come into a good team and contribute from day one are rare

Great point - many of those fwds in GC’s list were played by necessity, in struggling Clubs - thereby detracting from the veracity of the contention that playing extended time, in the AFL in your first 2 seasons, is a precursor to being a gun.

 

[Rorzza]

It's early in the year and fundamental mistakes sometimes should be over looked somewhat and it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks but in relation to fast transition, there are some players you just don't want the ball in hand. I was hoping Membrey had worked on it in the off season, still time, he knows how to stifle fast transition. An unpopular opinion, I know!

 

[Bianconeri]

Agree that I do get obsessed. Character flaw of mine. I apologise

My original hypothesis on the was for small and mediums, not playing 20 games in your 1st 3 seasons correlated strongly with not having a 100 game career or better. I think Tom Mitchell, Josh D and Crisp were the going around at that time who broke the rule.

It holds up pretty well for the bigs too but not ruckmen

When you say there are so many examples give them to me.

I dont think you will find there are many of the good KPFs who were not playing a reasonable amount of AFL footy in their 2nd season.

Tom Mitchell played exactly 20 games after his third season so still fits this rule.

 

[cfc19902010]

Either West or Buller have to fire up or I believe we’re in trouble
Can’t rely on mcstay and membrey for 23 games

 

[Jen2310]

Sam Darcy played 7 games in his first 2 years
Mitch Lewis played 2 games in his first 2 seasons (0 in his debut season)
12 in year 3

 

[OEP MKII]

All we saw yesterday was what happens when young players with little to no AFL experience are thrust together without significant experience around them to help calm and guide them on the field.
Do anyone honestly think either of the Ashcroft brothers or Fletcher would be the players they are if they didn't have the experience and quality around them when they made the AFL side.
The only line that performed well yesterday was the forward line. Want to guess which line had the most experience in it.
Given the lack of experience in the midfield and backline I thought the performances of players like Anderson, Cochran, and Allan was very promising. HH will hopefully get back to his pre-injury form the more he plays, West looks a promising player who'll press for hard for a spot in the forward line, and I really liked the look of McInnes in the backline prior to his injury.
Currently we have a very strong starting 23, with good group of younger players ready to go, and another group below them with real upside but in need of AFL maturing with the occasional game to help them understand the difference in speed and intensity of an AFL game.
My view on the team is they're good enough for finals and from there anything can happen. I don't get caught up in the "are they a premiership calibre team" bullshit. Last year we were the unbackable premiership favourites until Adelaide became the unbackable premiership favourites, then Brisbane won it.

 

[jathanas]

Either West or Buller have to fire up or I believe we’re in trouble
Can’t rely on mcstay and membrey for 23 games

We are underrating how much the team's ball movement will determine how well the forward line fares.