Player Watch #3: Harry Sheezel - 23 AFL RS/NM SBM, AFLPA BYP, '24 AA squad, '24 AFLCA BYP, '25 joint SBM winner, '26 NMFC VC

[Midas]

Phark he showed he is becoming a serious mid, with 2-3 more pre-season hai body will be ripped.

His midfield craft has exploded and his power has also improved.

He’s a ripper. So elite. Will get caught every now and again on the spread but he just gets the game and will adjust and become a great player defensively as well.

 

[harper2bastinac]

I can’t believe no one has posted about this moment but this just sums up how smart this kid is.

He’s on the wing and just evades a tackle, instead of kicking forward he looks for the smart option of kicking back to Comben who’s behind the play.
Comben then gets a 50, and we all know what happens next.

Most kids would have blasted the ball forward in a split second

 

[DocSholl]

I can’t believe no one has posted about this moment but this just sums up how smart this kid is.

He’s on the wing and just evades a tackle, instead of kicking forward he looks for the smart option of kicking back to Comben who’s behind the play.
Comben then gets a 50, and we all know what happens next.

Most kids would have blasted the ball forward in a split second

Add psychic to his list of qualities

 

[Its a Process]

The toepoke / pickup / evade clearance in the last quarter was a thing of absolute beauty.

Came at an important time as well. Loved the intent to tackle Burgoyne, hadn't seen that level of agression.

Just thank our lucky stars he is ours

 

[JZTIME!]

The toepoke / pickup / evade clearance in the last quarter was a thing of absolute beauty.

Came at an important time as well. Loved the intent to tackle Burgoyne, hadn't seen that level of agression.

Just thank our lucky stars he is ours

That pulled kick across the body under pressure was just wow. Some say his kicking isn't great but he does hit some that not many can. So happy he plays for NM. Imagine the coverage he'd get playing for the pies. Under the radar freak

 

[kanga kanga kanga]

 

[Sphynx]

That pulled kick across the body under pressure was just wow. Some say his kicking isn't great but he does hit some that not many can. So happy he plays for NM. Imagine the coverage he'd get playing for the pies. Under the radar freak

His single biggest improvement in his game will come from some decision making, I don't think it's his mechanical kicking, which is quite clearly very good.

Harry has quite easily the highest IQ of anyone in our side.

It's also fair to say, he's been asked to carry the load more than he should have the last 18 months inside the stoppage.

Im hoping the new rules means he gets a bit of clean ball forward of center and in space.

As good as he is in some moments per game with some freakish disposal and decision makings, it's easy to overlook some pretty regular mistakes he makes because of how he goes about it. It's why his ratings nosedived last season, it was almost entirely on his disposal and decision making.

It's also easy to miss when there's a sea of others that are making regular disposal errors. This is changing though and he needs to improve or it will become far more noticeable.

Whilst he might not stick the ball directly down the throat of an opponent like Colby tends to do every now (these types of clangers and turnovers stick in the mind) he does loop a lot of kicks and handballs that technically hit a "target", but results in a loss of possession or direct turnover after the contest because they are tackled or dispossessed. Particularly in dangerous parts of the ground. Im sure plenty of supporters would label Colby as a poor kick. But he hits more targets, in much more difficult positions than Harry does on average. We retain the ball more when Colby kicks it than Harry does.

I think you are lying to yourself if you dont think you have seen quite a bit of this over the last 12 months.

The data and the level they track this doesn't really lie anymore. It's mostly in his kicking as well, rather than his quick hands, which are fairly elite.

He's statistically in our bottom half ball users by foot (combining his decision making and execution). He was in our bottom 4 on the weekend by foot. Your post is a good example highlighting that one kick, which was great. Now do the cutup of every other kick...

We only retain possession cleanly for another disposal every time he decides to kick it 55% of the time.

This is particularly disappointing, because on average he doesn't go for the high difficulty, high impact type kicks that might warrant that loss of possession that others do (this is very easily explained by the volume of kicks he gets and plenty of his kicks in possession being a sideways chip to safety etc).

When he does decide to kick for a target, the data rates his kicking as below the AFL average for completing that respective kick. I.E he's a poor kick, where more than half the AFL players in the league would complete that kick and retain possession and he doesnt.


He's a phenomenal player, but Im sure given his determination and nature, he and the coaches knows this is where his improvement needs to come.

He needs to use it better on average.

Nick Daicos is a little bit the same, however he simply tries even easier kicks on average, but hits them and makes the right decision above the AFL average for this decision and kick rather than below it.

It's not a "problem", but he needs to improve it to go to the next level.

It can improve though, close to the worst ball user by foot for all of last season was Petracca...

 

[JZTIME!]

Great post. Raw data it looks a definite area of improvement. Would be more of an issue if he was averaging 20. I agree on the clean ball and our forwards (1 game i know) seemed to separate better on the weekend. I think after a blistering start by foot he now over thinks it to a degree. One on the weekend he had to nail a backward kick to Chom? was a brilliant kick because he just did it without thinking. Listening to him regularly he is trying to maximize his impact whether its running , disposal or positioning. Could be a case of too much info at times as fundamentally his technique is sound.
Missed 7-8 goals last year he would normally just nail as well.

 

[Sphynx]

Great post. Raw data it looks a definite area of improvement. Would be more of an issue if he was averaging 20. I agree on the clean ball and our forwards (1 game i know) seemed to separate better on the weekend. I think after a blistering start by foot he now over thinks it to a degree. One on the weekend he had to nail a backward kick to Chom? was a brilliant kick because he just did it without thinking. Listening to him regularly he is trying to maximize his impact whether its running , disposal or positioning. Could be a case of too much info at times as fundamentally his technique is sound.
Missed 7-8 goals last year he would normally just nail as well.

He definitely had a big drop off in his disposal last year.

He didn't use it well against Port statistically, it was virtually in line with his 2025 numbers.

Some of this is definitely decision making, but you also need to consider if it's his decision. Sometimes it's a game plan directive to go through a particular part of the ground or through some players in particular field position.

However, the execution is on him.

They now calculate the difficulty of these kicks and weight them in the data, it still reads as if a few hundred other players are capable of regularly making some of the kicks he might slightly over hit and invite a spoil, or loop up and a players sits under it for half a second too long or directly turnover etc.

His threat ratings and threat rating per kick also match the eye test imo with some of his criticism by some past players and commentators. He's a little bit too conservative sometimes in open play, he thinks a little too much at times. He's slower in his disposal and much more conservative in his kicking decisions as some of our other players, with arguably worse outcomes and execution statistically.

The above point is why McKercher is simply rated higher in the data. Whilst he and Sheezel's execution are often similarly below average, McKercher is much more pro active, much more attacking and tries to bite off kicks with higher outcomes. This means when you are executing the same ratios, his are far more impactful.

Most North fans on face value would say Sheez is an elite kick and McKercher is a poor one.

Whether McKerchers shocker that goes down their throat and missed by 5m is a turnover or Sheezels 1-2 looping kicks that miss by 2% that become contested and are regularly recovered by our opponents, the outcome is the same. That's what people need to get their head around sometimes. The point is that Colby then goes and drills a far higher % onto a chest without the possibility of being spoiled.

 

[JZTIME!]

Its a great problem to have isn't it. A ball magnet that has shown he can be a very good kick, working to put himself into the top echelon of players. These disposal pigs aren't generally great kicks as they have poor exectution/decision making.
I think Harry can hit the kicks he should without sapping momentum similar to Logues on the weekend. That extra 10 percent would have him sort this. Colby like you said breaks the game open with his speed an is decisions so is going to make mistakes. As these guys get fitter and run out games better hopefully we are smiling even more as supporters.
What a great problem to have

 

[Sphynx]

Its a great problem to have isn't it. A ball magnet that has shown he can be a very good kick, working to put himself into the top echelon of players. These disposal pigs aren't generally great kicks as they have poor exectution/decision making.
I think Harry can hit the kicks he should without sapping momentum similar to Logues on the weekend. That extra 10 percent would have him sort this. Colby like you said breaks the game open with his speed an is decisions so is going to make mistakes. As these guys get fitter and run out games better hopefully we are smiling even more as supporters.
What a great problem to have

That is definitely the case, for even the best.

For 2025, this model had the following high volume mids as the best kicks in any situation, with all those factors:

1. Gulden
2. Miller
3. Heeney
4. Brayshaw (might surprise plenty - Serong is statistically one of the worst)
5. Nic Martin
6. Tom Green
7. Zac Merrett
8. Hugh McCluggage
9. Zak Butters
10. Bont

I think that list would largely match the eye test for most with a couple of surprises.

In terms of most damage with their decision making, aggressiveness of disposal and able to execute on those decisions:

1. Touk Miller
2. Bont
3. McCluggage
4. T. Green
5. Heeney
6. J.McCrae
7. Ed Richards
8. N. Daicos
9. Brayshaw
10. N. Martin

What that says is, Daicos isn't necessarily the best kick. But a very good decision maker and takes damaging options. The same as Ed Richards.

The opposite is true for Gulden, Merrett and Butters. Technically they are absolute elite kicks, but aren't as damaging as their kicking could enable them to be if they unlocked the game like Bonetempelli or McCluggage does with their vision, IQ or ability to move the ball into the highest impact areas.

The simple analogy is, Bont might not hit that leading target streaming out to 40m lace out like Gulden or Nic Martin can do more regularly.

But he does take those 5-10 extra steps and hits the other forward 20m out from goal on the fat side of the ground that these two didn't see or weren't able to get into range of with other aspects of their play...

 

[Reginald0]

Like other mids if Harry could get on the board ,muscle up a bit to pressure opponents and train athletically to get half a yard he would go from A grade to elite
LDU same He has ramped up body and handskills Goalkicking is next in line

 

[ferball]

Like other mids if Harry could get on the board ,muscle up a bit to pressure opponents and train athletically to get half a yard he would go from A grade to elite
LDU same He has ramped up body and handskills Goalkicking is next in line

I reckon he's actually done that over the pre season. He's definitely faster than he was last year.

 

[Friday Night Lights]

Want to see him breaking the 50 and getting shots at goal more regularly. He’s so good at converting those kinda chances.

 

[amaz199]

That pulled kick across the body under pressure was just wow. Some say his kicking isn't great but he does hit some that not many can. So happy he plays for NM. Imagine the coverage he'd get playing for the pies. Under the radar freak

That kick to Trembath was sensational. Unreal kick.

 

[shintemaster]

After watching the replay what stood out to me was his physicality.

I don’t think he was ever scared of contact, but he looks bigger and stronger and was actively looking to bump, block and nail some Port scumbags. Shame he copped Burgoyne high that was going to be a ripper.

Has always been hard.

Opposition have taken opportunities to crunch him under our regular hospital passes on multiple occasions and he doesn't give them even a hint that it hurts.

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

Want to see him breaking the 50 and getting shots at goal more regularly. He’s so good at converting those kinda chances.

As it stands, that has never been proven - outside the Sydney game in his 1st/2nd year.

 

[Shack18]

As it stands, that has never been proven - outside the Sydney game in his 1st/2nd year.

Richmond last round last year in Hobart

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

Richmond last round last year in Hobart

Most of the draft reports painted him as a skilled, hard working forward who kicks bags of goals for fun. He he has never filled that role, or really been given the chance to.

 

[Friday Night Lights]

Most of the draft reports painted him as a skilled, hard working forward who kicks bags of goals for fun. He he has never filled that role, or really been given the chance to.

Not really asking him to play that role, would just like to see him on the end of more chains that have him in range for a shot. Plenty of times we’ve seen him bang them through. Brisbane (first gather round game), Geelong in Hobart, Richmond in Hobart all come to mind as examples.

 

[perplexed]

His single biggest improvement in his game will come from some decision making, I don't think it's his mechanical kicking, which is quite clearly very good.

Harry has quite easily the highest IQ of anyone in our side.

It's also fair to say, he's been asked to carry the load more than he should have the last 18 months inside the stoppage.

Im hoping the new rules means he gets a bit of clean ball forward of center and in space.

As good as he is in some moments per game with some freakish disposal and decision makings, it's easy to overlook some pretty regular mistakes he makes because of how he goes about it. It's why his ratings nosedived last season, it was almost entirely on his disposal and decision making.

It's also easy to miss when there's a sea of others that are making regular disposal errors. This is changing though and he needs to improve or it will become far more noticeable.

Whilst he might not stick the ball directly down the throat of an opponent like Colby tends to do every now (these types of clangers and turnovers stick in the mind) he does loop a lot of kicks and handballs that technically hit a "target", but results in a loss of possession or direct turnover after the contest because they are tackled or dispossessed. Particularly in dangerous parts of the ground. Im sure plenty of supporters would label Colby as a poor kick. But he hits more targets, in much more difficult positions than Harry does on average. We retain the ball more when Colby kicks it than Harry does.

I think you are lying to yourself if you dont think you have seen quite a bit of this over the last 12 months.

The data and the level they track this doesn't really lie anymore. It's mostly in his kicking as well, rather than his quick hands, which are fairly elite.

He's statistically in our bottom half ball users by foot (combining his decision making and execution). He was in our bottom 4 on the weekend by foot. Your post is a good example highlighting that one kick, which was great. Now do the cutup of every other kick...

We only retain possession cleanly for another disposal every time he decides to kick it 55% of the time.

This is particularly disappointing, because on average he doesn't go for the high difficulty, high impact type kicks that might warrant that loss of possession that others do (this is very easily explained by the volume of kicks he gets and plenty of his kicks in possession being a sideways chip to safety etc).

When he does decide to kick for a target, the data rates his kicking as below the AFL average for completing that respective kick. I.E he's a poor kick, where more than half the AFL players in the league would complete that kick and retain possession and he doesnt.


He's a phenomenal player, but Im sure given his determination and nature, he and the coaches knows this is where his improvement needs to come.

He needs to use it better on average.

Nick Daicos is a little bit the same, however he simply tries even easier kicks on average, but hits them and makes the right decision above the AFL average for this decision and kick rather than below it.

It's not a "problem", but he needs to improve it to go to the next level.

It can improve though, close to the worst ball user by foot for all of last season was Petracca...

He should be our most damaging player, but at the moment Harry is largely ineffective. I think part of the reason for his poor ball use is not holding onto the ball for long enough and looking for the best option. He has great and fast hands, but that doesn't mean he has use them as quickly as possible. He needs to risk getting caught holding the ball, he is big and strong enough now that he can stand-up in or step through tackles.

 

[Merlin007]

He should be our most damaging player, but at the moment Harry is largely ineffective. I think part of the reason for his poor ball use is not holding onto the ball for long enough and looking for the best option. He has great and fast hands, but that doesn't mean he has use them as quickly as possible. He needs to risk getting caught holding the ball, he is big and strong enough now that he can stand-up in or step through tackles.

I'll put that down to youthful enthusiasm on the part of the author

 

[perplexed]

I'll put that down to youthful enthusiasm on the part of the author

It's pretty much true. From last year these were our players' equity numbers for ball use. These prioritise the same things as AFL player rankings (goals, goal assists, score involvements, metres gained) and don't care about ball retention that goes nowhere. The best players are around 8, Harry is at 0.

 

[zoomba23]

He should be our most damaging player, but at the moment Harry is largely ineffective. I think part of the reason for his poor ball use is not holding onto the ball for long enough and looking for the best option. He has great and fast hands, but that doesn't mean he has use them as quickly as possible. He needs to risk getting caught holding the ball, he is big and strong enough now that he can stand-up in or step through tackles.

I thought he was great last week. It's amazing what a small increase in pace can enable; it felt like we were actually progressing when he had the ball, as opposed to the treacle-stomping exercises of last year. Yeah there were only a couple of disposals that really stood out, but he ran very strongly, providing an outlet and finishing the game looking just as good as when he started it. They're good signs after last year, when he led the comp in uncontested possessions and by and large did **** all with them

 

[hotchilli]

Just lacking a bit of damage in his possessions in the first half.

Good signs with how he’s winning more football around clearances.