Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2026

[Old Campaigner]

I don't understand anything to do with the draft and its magical point system and bids. The only real question I have is - does this in any way make it harder for us to get Bewick?

No

 

[Yoda_]

I don't understand anything to do with the draft and its magical point system and bids. The only real question I have is - does this in any way make it harder for us to get Bewick?

Under the old parameters (not perfect example but one none the less) we would use our pick before a bid and then match that pick 4 bid with multiple 20s picks.

Under these new systems, we would likely need to use that pick 4 + the next available pick to balance the value of that pick

so essentially getting pick 3 + Bewick we would be getting Bewick + a 3rd round selection onwards

 

[Yoda_]

I wonder if AFL needs to consider extending the value of these selections to make it more attainable and valuable to trading clubs to try and get back into the draft?

currently extends to PICK 54 ONLY valued at 14 draft value points. Probably not with how little draftees we are seeing these last few years but perhaps expanding AFL lists needs to be put back on the agenda.

 

[The Prosecutor]

No

I wouldn't say that - the AFL also confirmed that Tassie's picks in the 2027 draft (1,3,5,7.9,11 and 13) will all count for bidding purposes, meaning that given our picks will all be pushed out due to this, matching Bewick will be incredibly expensive relative to any other year.

While sure, we can go into a deficit, it significantly compromises our 2028 first round pick.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I wouldn't say that - the AFL also confirmed that Tassie's picks in the 2027 draft (1,3,5,7.9,11 and 13) will all count for bidding purposes, meaning that given our picks will all be pushed out due to this, matching Bewick will be incredibly expensive relative to any other year.

While sure, we can go into a deficit, it significantly compromises our 2028 first round pick.

That’s not really due to the bidding changes though

 

[The Prosecutor]

That’s not really due to the bidding changes though

Well it is, there's a cap on the deficit we can take on. This fundamentally makes it more difficult for us to be able to have the value to take Bewick assuming he goes high.

Some rough math

Let’s say they bid on Bewick at 1 and we finished 14th in 2027.

That would mean instead of pick 5 (1,795), we’d have to try and reach 2700 points with pick 10 (1276) and one other first-round pick.

Now, teams (for next year at least) have a deficit of 412 they can take in to the next year’s draft.

Factoring in that, it would mean we need 2288 points to match for Bewick. It means we would need pick 14 or higher in addition to our pick 10 to match the bid, with 14 also leaving that 400 point deficit that will impact our 2028 first round pick.

How would that deficit impact us? Well, if we had pick 6 in 2028, that would become pick 11

What if Bewick was in this year’s draft and we finished 14th?

Well, the 2700 points to match would be the same. We’d have pick 5 (1,795) as a starting point and given we have to use two two picks in the first round to match and pick 18 is worth 836, it means that we’d we’d be able to comfortably match without any real risk of taking a deficit (or at least any impact).

TL;DR Today's announcements don't prevent us from matching a bid, but make it much harder for us to have the necessary capital to do so, even more so than compared to what Carlton? Port will have to this year that they've been fussing about.

This would also have flow on impacts to our other NGA prospects that year.

 

[cAsEy_18]

Well it is, there's a cap on the deficit we can take on. This fundamentally makes it more difficult for us to be able to have the value to take Bewick assuming he goes high.

Some rough math

Let’s say they bid on Bewick at 1 and we finished 14th in 2027.

That would mean instead of pick 5 (1,795), we’d have to try and reach 2700 points with pick 10 (1276) and one other first-round pick.

Now, teams (for next year at least) have a deficit of 412 they can take in to the next year’s draft.

Factoring in that, it would mean we need 2288 points to match for Bewick. It means we would need pick 14 or higher in addition to our pick 10 to match the bid, with 14 also leaving that 400 point deficit that will impact our 2028 first round pick.

How would that deficit impact us? Well, if we had pick 6 in 2028, that would become pick 11

What if Bewick was in this year’s draft and we finished 14th?

Well, the 2700 points to match would be the same. We’d have pick 5 (1,795) as a starting point and given we have to use two two picks in the first round to match and pick 18 is worth 836, it means that we’d we’d be able to comfortably match without any real risk of taking a deficit (or at least any impact).

TL;DR Today's announcements don't prevent us from matching a bid, but make it much harder for us to have the necessary capital to do so, even more so than compared to what Carlton? Port will have to this year that they've been fussing about.

This would also have flow on impacts to our other NGA prospects that year.

The follow-up to this though could be that points "might" be more attainable than any other year, simply because so many of those points that have a high pick value will belong to Tassie and Tassie do need to trade a certain number of their draft picks.

Still going to have to pay a decent old price, and there's far from any guarantee that they want to trade with us or for any of our players. But at least the idea that first round picks with high point value (that we might need) might be more realistic to trade for than in other seasons.

 

[The Prosecutor]

Well it is, there's a cap on the deficit we can take on. This fundamentally makes it more difficult for us to be able to have the value to take Bewick assuming he goes high.

Some rough math

Let’s say they bid on Bewick at 1 and we finished 14th in 2027.

That would mean instead of pick 5 (1,795), we’d have to try and reach 2700 points with pick 10 (1276) and one other first-round pick.

Now, teams (for next year at least) have a deficit of 412 they can take in to the next year’s draft.

Factoring in that, it would mean we need 2288 points to match for Bewick. It means we would need pick 14 or higher in addition to our pick 10 to match the bid, with 14 also leaving that 400 point deficit that will impact our 2028 first round pick.

How would that deficit impact us? Well, if we had pick 6 in 2028, that would become pick 11

What if Bewick was in this year’s draft and we finished 14th?

Well, the 2700 points to match would be the same. We’d have pick 5 (1,795) as a starting point and given we have to use two two picks in the first round to match and pick 18 is worth 836, it means that we’d we’d be able to comfortably match without any real risk of taking a deficit (or at least any impact).

TL;DR Today's announcements don't prevent us from matching a bid, but make it much harder for us to have the necessary capital to do so, even more so than compared to what Carlton? Port will have to this year that they've been fussing about.

This would also have flow on impacts to our other NGA prospects that year.

This also assumes we don't do the most Essendon thing ever by finishing 10th, getting thumped in the wildcard round and losing the 10% bidding match discount for nothing, meaning we'd need an extra 300 points.

 

[Blind Turn]

I still don’t understand why they couldn’t ease the comp into these changes with bidding until after Tassie’s entry. It seems far too blunt and unsympathetic to struggling clubs who finally get a look at F/S talent. Give it a few years to change your academy programs and benefit from the resources you’ve already put in to these kids when you had an expectation that you’d get fair crack at them.

 

[Yoda_]

I wouldn't say that - the AFL also confirmed that Tassie's picks in the 2027 draft (1,3,5,7.9,11 and 13) will all count for bidding purposes, meaning that given our picks will all be pushed out due to this, matching Bewick will be incredibly expensive relative to any other year.

While sure, we can go into a deficit, it significantly compromises our 2028 first round pick.

this is where, if Rosa plays is right, we do some really good dealings with Tasmania in a bid to help smooth them over and let Koby slip as far as we can whilst also simultaneously getting in more collateral for our other NGA's

 

[Yoda_]

I still don’t understand why they couldn’t ease the comp into these changes with bidding until after Tassie’s entry. It seems far too blunt and unsympathetic to struggling clubs who finally get a look at F/S talent. Give it a few years to change your academy programs and benefit from the resources you’ve already put in to these kids when you had an expectation that you’d get fair crack at them.

Carlton and Port are front and centre of it all but I sure as shit hope someone points out that had we known about these changes then the Merrett deal would almost have certainly gone through.

Picks were rubbish or not, it gave us extra draft capital to move into the pointy end of this, next or 2028's first round drafts

 

[ant555]

It is not as much of a longshot as people may think that the decision we may have to make with Bewick is do, we actually pick someone before him if we finish bottom 5 again in 2027. Everyone is just presuming that Bewick is going to just go from top class under 16 to top 3 pick. It doesn't always happen. Not everyone does a Nick Daicos. We may start a bit of a climb up the ladder in 2027, and it could be a redundant point, but I am not sold on him simply being a generational player. From what I have watched he is smart, his skills have been pretty good, but he has not simply ripped it up now he has stepped up to under 18 level. Plenty of time of course but I do not simply see it as a forgone conclusion. He has to find a couple of levels.

 

[Keystone agony]

People need to be sure whether you can go into deficit or not before jumping to conclusions

Why is this never discussed?

It was my understanding that you were going to be able to, do we know for sure or not?

So your points just get taken off your future pick

 

[Yoda_]

It is not as much of a longshot as people may think that the decision we may have to make with Bewick is do, we actually pick someone before him if we finish bottom 5 again in 2027. Everyone is just presuming that Bewick is going to just go from top class under 16 to top 3 pick. It doesn't always happen. Not everyone does a Nick Daicos. We may start a bit of a climb up the ladder in 2027, and it could be a redundant point, but I am not sold on him simply being a generational player. From what I have watched he is smart, his skills have been pretty good, but he has not simply ripped it up now he has stepped up to under 18 level. Plenty of time of course but I do not simply see it as a forgone conclusion. He has to find a couple of levels.

Just remember that Tasmania pre listing those under 17s means less kids in the open draft pool already which to me means a likely prospective top 20 kid is more than likely going to enter on the periphery of the 10 now at least

 

[ant555]

Just remember that Tasmania pre listing those under 17s means less kids in the open draft pool already which to me means a likely prospective top 20 kid is more than likely going to enter on the periphery of the 10 now at least

Not all of them will end up in Tasmania. You really think the absolute best 6 to 8 players will end up there ?

 

[The Prosecutor]

People need to be sure whether you can go into deficit or not before jumping to conclusions

Why is this never discussed?

It was my understanding that you were going to be able to, do we know for sure or not?

So your points just get taken off your future pick

I addressed that on this very page, there is a maximum deficit of 412 points you can carry on to the following year. It used to be a lot more.

 

[Keystone agony]

I addressed that on this very page, there is a maximum deficit of 412 points you can carry on to the following year. It used to be a lot more.

Thanks

So i know there are many scenarios

But we finish 3rd last 2027, Bewick still not bid

We have a few options to get the points for a pick 4 bid

There is another quality player tied at pick 3 rating realm.

We bid at pick 3 on player and if matched we end up with

Picks 4, 22 and the added pick 19 (take player pick 4) and match at pick 5 using picks 19 and 22 (and any deficit)


Or no player at pick 3 thats tied or they dont match.

We take player at pick 3 and Bewick bid at pick 4 and we only have pick 22 and 38 to match (if nothing else has been traded in). Then we would need to get taken under a bit by trading a future pick into this draft and likely trading pick 22 out into next years draft is an option pending what pick level we get in the current term

 

[Red Black and Blue]

It is not as much of a longshot as people may think that the decision we may have to make with Bewick is do, we actually pick someone before him if we finish bottom 5 again in 2027. Everyone is just presuming that Bewick is going to just go from top class under 16 to top 3 pick. It doesn't always happen. Not everyone does a Nick Daicos. We may start a bit of a climb up the ladder in 2027, and it could be a redundant point, but I am not sold on him simply being a generational player. From what I have watched he is smart, his skills have been pretty good, but he has not simply ripped it up now he has stepped up to under 18 level. Plenty of time of course but I do not simply see it as a forgone conclusion. He has to find a couple of levels.

Really a best case scenario in my opinion. He’s a beautifully skilled player with a bit of toe and can play anywhere. Say he has an underwhelming campaign and goes way later, could still be a Murphy Reid or Gulden and we still get a player before him. Hopefully 2. Even better if the fan base doesn’t apply ridiculous pressure to him expecting him to be a messiah.

 

[The Prosecutor]

Thanks

So i know there are many scenarios

But we finish 3rd last 2027, Bewick still not bid

We have a few options to get the points for a pick 4 bid

There is another quality player tied at pick 3 rating realm.

We bid at pick 3 on player and if matched we end up with

Picks 4, 22 and the added pick 19 (take player pick 4) and match at pick 5 using picks 19 and 22 (and any deficit)


Or no player at pick 3 thats tied or they dont match.

We take player at pick 3 and Bewick bid at pick 4 and we only have pick 22 and 38 to match (if nothing else has been traded in). Then we would need to get taken under a bit by trading a future pick into this draft and likely trading pick 22 out into next years draft is an option pending what pick level we get in the current term

You're forgetting all of Tassie's pick. They will have 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 and 13 which will push everything back. So it would be pick 6 we would have.

Additionally, picks used to match a bid must come from the same round as the bid.

 

[Yoda_]

You're forgetting all of Tassie's pick. They will have 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 and 13 which will push everything back. So it would be pick 6 we would have.

Additionally, picks used to match a bid must come from the same round as the bid.

got me thinking, and im pretty sure I heard/read/saw the answer, if you are the 3rd bottom side, you will hold pick 6. Does that make you ineligible of this magical whip of the wand compensation pick?

 

[doug85]

'I think it is an error': Clubs 'furious' at draft changes, Cats coach on the Gold Coast

Check out all the latest trade news from around the League

www.afl.com.au

This article answers a few questions about Bewicks slow start to the season

 

[ydc55]

On form this year Koby is nowhere near top 10 of vic bottom angers.
As ant555 correctly stated the 2027 draft pool will be diluted by Tassie.
I reckon new rules should have come in later once Tassie settled

 

[The Prosecutor]

'I think it is an error': Clubs 'furious' at draft changes, Cats coach on the Gold Coast

Check out all the latest trade news from around the League

www.afl.com.au

This article answers a few questions about Bewicks slow start to the season

ESSENDON father-son prospect Koby Bewick has been cleared of a serious back injury after being sidelined recently at under-18 level.

Bewick had been sore in recent games and may not play for the Calder Cannons this week, but the son of two-time Essendon premiership forward Darren has been cleared of any damage and is expected to return to the field soon.

The 2027 draft prospect has had an interrupted summer, having dealt with osteitis pubis and being restricted in his pre-season, but he will feature for Vic Metro as a bottom-aged player this upcoming under-18 carnival after starring last year as an under-16.

 

[Keystone agony]

He dominated an early game didnt he, but its an extremely strong draft as

 

[Keystone agony]

Additionally, picks used to match a bid must come from the same round as the bid.

I dont believe this is true ?