Autopsy 2007-17 average drafting, decent trading

[RussellEbertHandball]

Macca19's comment about trading Polec should be good because its gives us the chance to get draft picks and Macca reckons the draft is the most exciting part of the season for him, got me thinking, do we really do that well in the draft?? I did a quick summary in the current draft thread of our picks from 40 or higher inc the PSD and rookie draft and listed some of our picks in the 30's.

I have been doing this sort of analysis since Portia did this great post back in late August 2011 when we were on the bones of our arse. It was a brilliant bit of analysis on how we have pissed away too many first 3 round picks in the 2001-05 period and only had slightly improved in the 2006-10 period.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...ort-on-recruiting.862155/page-2#post-22024946

It's formed a big the basis of my ongoing analysis in the Making the Top 4 and building to a flag thread. I started the thread in September 2008 and post 24 (of that 22 page thread) in September 2013, I took Portia's 2011 post and extended it for 2011 and 2012, and looking forward to the 2013 draft.

Basically our drafting since post the 2006 draft has been not much better than average. We do well with our first round picks and picks in the 20's, are average for picks in the 30's but hopeless for picks from 40 onward including picks in the pre-season draft and rookie draft.

Jonas is the only player who since 2007 was drafted pick 40 or higher who has played 100 games or more.

2006 was the 2nd super draft according to the industry recruiters. We did well out of it.

Boak and Westhoff have played 200+ games, Robbie is close to 200 games and may end his career as our best AFL player - already is top 3 in just about everyone's eyes. Paul Stewart played 100+ as did David Rodan. Krakouer had the talent but didn't get there because he wasn't committed. The only absolute bust was Boak's mate Ryan Williams who played 2 games. Cockshell was a PSD pick and played 2 games but our 4 rookies never played a game.

So Mick Moylan in his last year at Port gets a big tick. This draft summary from footywire website shows Port's 2006 draftees have played more games than any other club draftees from the 2006 draft and will register 1,000 games from that group of sensational players if we play 2 finals this year, and Boak, Gray and Hoff play all these 5 games left this year. We are on 986 games.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_draft_summaries?year=2006&t=N

Other drafts where clubs got 1,000 games out of that years group of draftees for the club + other clubs
2011 GWS. 1,078 games, 14 picks 6 with GWS, 4 other team, 4 not active
2004 Hawks 1,059 games, 3 players still active 1 Roughie Hawks, 2 Buddy and Lewis at other clubs
2001 Geel 1,460 games, Ablett still active
2001 Saints 1,108 games
2001 Hawks 1,015 games, Hodge still active
2000 North 1,020 games
2000 Port 897 - Burgoyne still active but 4 picks Kane 300, Dom 228, Shaun 157(Port) Allan Murray 1
1999 Geel 1,220 games
1999 WBs 1,179 games
1997 Bris 986 games

The following info is from that great website draftguru.com.au. They are a game or two out since they last updated and are behind the current totals. They use light blue for 100 gamers and dark blue for 200 gamers, which we don't have any from 2007 draft onward [ only 6 blokes from 2007 draft and 3 from 2008 have reached 200 games]. I have added green shading for 50 gamers. See
https://www.draftguru.com.au/clubs/port-adelaide#2007

Our first Rd picks 2007-2017. We have traded out 1st rounders in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2017.

Lobbe played 92 games for us in brackets, and 94 AFL games in total is how to read the table



Here are our picks in the 20's


Here are our picks in the 30's


Our draft picks from 40 or higher and Pre Season Draft and Rookie picks. The cupboard has been very bare on quality.







Below is our Trades since 2007. I have only looked at players traded in not out or pick only trades. In 2007 we trade out Symes for pick 28 used to get Marlon Motlop. No trades in 2008 and since 2009 we have been active each trade period but in 2016 we swapped picks not players.

I have shaded in Yellow what we either a) gave up or b) mainly gave up to get the player. Minor picks with the players or multi club deal stuff I have put the substance of the trade rather than full details. Eg in 2009 Jay Nash was part of the 4 club trade for Shaun Burgoyne and 40+56 is what we gave up but it wasn't really those 2 picks for Nash.

Edit Monfries was pick 48 trade but in reality we gave it away to protect our compo picks for losing Chaplin and Pearce. If we didnt give up a pick then he would have come as a free agent and we would have only got 1 compo pick ie Chaplin + Pearce - Monfries = net 1 free agent lost.

 

[Nelson051]

* you have too much time on your hands

 

[TeeKray]

That was depressing reading.

In fairness, we seem to be doing much better in the KT era of reinvesting in the football department. We couldn't even nail our first rounders before KT came on board. Recruiting and development has gone up several notches since then.

 

[ash_78]

Good thread. I've been thinking about this recently too. I wonder whether our recruitment has been made to look worse by poor player development. Another factor may be our lack of gameplan featuring structured roles so less talented players can play their role and be effective - in the way that great sides equal more than the sum of their parts which makes individual players look better (who sometimes get shown up when they move clubs).

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3003 using Tapatalk

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

That was depressing reading.

In fairness, we seem to be doing much better in the KT era of reinvesting in the football department. We couldn't even nail our first rounders before KT came on board. Recruiting and development has gone up several notches since then.

The KT/Koch/Ken era with more $$ available have been better with respects to trades because we have first traded to get ourselves out of a big ditch and then with the positivity of 2014, we have gone hard at top players - Ryder, Dixon, Watts and free agents.

Attracting free agents might save some people's career in the footy department.

If we look at the post 2012 drafts, and can get 150 games each out the following guys taken at pick 40 or higher, then we can say our drafting has improved - DBJ, Howard and Sam Gray. I'd like AJ to get to 150, s**t even 100, but he gets injured too often at the moment. Houston will probably join Jonas as a post 2006 100 gamer from the rookie list.

 

[rumoursofwinter]

I have always thought we are too conservative with our rookie picks. We pick a lot of mature age picks. I'd hope we would be more into risk / reward players. Anyway, our late picks are improving as we have spent more money in this area.

 

[tribey]

That was depressing reading.

In fairness, we seem to be doing much better in the KT era of reinvesting in the football department. We couldn't even nail our first rounders before KT came on board. Recruiting and development has gone up several notches since then.

I still remember the exact moment the page refreshed and said "Ben Jacobs".

It may as well have said "B U S T".

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I have always thought we are too conservative with our rookie picks. We pick a lot of mature age picks. I'd hope we would be more into risk / reward players. Anyway, our late picks are improving as we have spent more money in this area.

Apart from DBJ and Sam Gray where is the evidence our late picks are improving?

 

[Macca19]

Apart from DBJ and Sam Gray where is the evidence our late picks are improving?

Howard, Houston, Lienert all look like having good size AFL careers. AJ and Farrell have shown signs as well.

I think our drafting has improved in recent years.

 

[Andre]

That was depressing reading.

In fairness, we seem to be doing much better in the KT era of reinvesting in the football department. We couldn't even nail our first rounders before KT came on board. Recruiting and development has gone up several notches since then.

We had sub-standard scouting and list management from lack of funds 2007-2012. Trading is getting in someone that's at least had some real AFL form, not a drafting guess. I'm happy to stick the boot into the club where justified (such as the crapshit Hinkley extension), but I cut slack for the 2007-2012 era drafting.

 

[Spadge]

one thing this highlights to me is how awesome we have built a top class backline with late picks

Jonas - Rookie pick 16 (people forget this fact.. should be an AA defender and he was overlooked by everyone many times over)
Houston - Rookie pick 45 (i mean.. carn...)
Howard - Pick 56
Byrne Jones - Pick 52
Clurey - Pick 29

Out of this group which is our core backline, Clurey was taken late in the second round but everyone else was purely speculative pick or a rookie selection

Its proven that our backline is up there with the best in the comp. We are right up there as the stingiest backline in the league

I doubt there is any other club in the competition that can boast such a quality backline built from the dregs of the draft

 

[raptalia]

The Draft is what it is- a lottery. You can get a spud at pick #8 or a 250 game player at pick#71.

Nowadays more and more good players seem to be coming from the Rookie Draft where players are usually a couple of years older. Just about every club has a good player or two taken at the Rookie Draft.Maybe 18 is too young and clubs and the game would benefit if players were not drafted until they were 20?

I do not buy the argument that lack of funds and resources was somehow related to our poor judgement at drafts between 2007 and 2013. That is a cop out for some poor decision making. The pool is restricted and the same players are on the table, with the exception of the F&S nominees and every club can attend the pre selection draft camps and every club has the opportunity for an informed call when it comes to their turn. In 2007 we had the resouces to presumably send some one to Darwin and look at Marlon Motlop who played a total of 5 AFL games yet we didn't have time to look at Levi Greenwood who has subsequently played 128 AFL games. Part of that was Choco's grandstanding obsession with recruiting the next Andrew McLeod from under everyone else's nose. That is a philosophy which I sometimes suspect is alive at Alberton under Hinkley.

In any case we picked up Chad Wingard in 2011 then Ollie Wines and Tom Clurey in 2012 when we were transitioning from Choco to Primus and presumably at a time when our financial stocks had hit rock bottom. It is easy to talk in retrospect but we simply did not get it right in the 2009 and 2010 drafts when we blew three first round draft picks.

 

[Pablo Escobar]

Lack of resources being blamed for poor recruiting is stretching it a bit. Fair enough you may not have as much intel on some players but it is no excuse for drafting players who can’t kick. Many supporters could spot these flaws. Our single biggest recruiting shortfalls have been body shape and skills.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

The best SA players can been seen every week.

No excuses for missing jack graham from north adelaide who went at pick 53 and a year later was a premiership player.

 

[Waspy79]

The best SA players can been seen every week.

No excuses for missing jack graham from north adelaide who went at pick 53 and a year later was a premiership player.

Interesting example - he's the last type of player we need.

 

[thundercloud]

Interesting data driven knowledge. We secured -olec and dixon with first and second round draft picks. Interesting to see what transpires. Also, my categories for footy iq is now: data driven for which you would receive a distinction, rational or divergent thinkers like janus, peck, ideological driven like like the late departed one bodymoan, emotional fruit loop who responds on weekly win or loss situation eTcc.

 

[Chrizzt]

The best SA players can been seen every week.

No excuses for missing jack graham from north adelaide who went at pick 53 and a year later was a premiership player.

Well we share the blame with 16 other clubs who passed over him, too. Ridiculous logic. Especially when you take into account that he plays a role at Richmond and is hardly a star player. Not really a spot for him at Port.

But then again we must be fools for delisting Renouf - he was a premiership player, too.

 

[thundercloud]

Interesting data driven knowledge. We secured -olec and dixon with first and second round draft picks. Interesting to see what transpires. Also, my categories for footy iq is now: data driven for which you would receive a distinction, rational or divergent thinkers like janus, peck, ideological driven like like the late departed one bodymoan, emotional fruit loop who responds on weekly win or loss situation eTcc.

Another one old time stagers like rexy johns and 1954 who like myself prob read lawrie jervios in the news friday night for teams etc

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Interesting example - he's the last type of player we need.

Of course - 16 possessions, 3 tackles and 3 goals & 7th best in a grand final.

 

[Chrizzt]

Of course - 16 possessions, 3 tackles and 3 goals & 7th best in a grand final.

Tom Boyd had 14 possessions, 8 marks (6 contested) and 3 goals and was 3rd best in a GF.
Ryan Schoenmakers had 21 touches, 9 marks and a goal.
Will Langford had 21 touches, 6 tackles and a goal and was 3rd best in a GF.

Sometimes average players have great games in Grand Finals.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Howard, Houston, Lienert all look like having good size AFL careers. AJ and Farrell have shown signs as well.

I think our drafting has improved in recent years.

I suspect in August in 2011 when Portia made her post of the previous 10 years drafting, most of us probably could have listed 5-8 low end picks that look like having a good size career. Take our Robbie and Hoff from the 2006 super draft and most of players we would have listed as having a good career, wouldn't have done much.

Most drafting and trading cant really be correctly evaluated until 5 or 10 years later. Its why there are no quick fixes and the AFL with their equalisation policies, don't understand they take years to filter through the system.

It's why the Polec question is do you stay with what you know you've got or do you hope for the best with a trade and draft picks. better the devil you know type stuff.

 

[Waspy79]

Of course - 16 possessions, 3 tackles and 3 goals & 7th best in a grand final.

C'mon, I just mean he's an inside type who isn't a great kick - we took SPP already. I don't think it's a case of missing him - club's draft to develop a rounded squad. And he's been pretty mediocre this year - too early to call him a hidden gem.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Adrian Settre still dines out on his 3 goals in the 1990 grand final.

It still gives Graham Cornes heartburn so you drain it for all it's worth Setts.

 

[Andre]

Tom Boyd had 14 possessions, 8 marks (6 contested) and 3 goals and was 3rd best in a GF.
Ryan Schoenmakers had 21 touches, 9 marks and a goal.
Will Langford had 21 touches, 6 tackles and a goal and was 3rd best in a GF.

Sometimes average players have great games in Grand Finals.

Toby Thurstans not traded for a first round pick after the 2004 GF, PTSD dog.jpg

 

[Macca19]

The best SA players can been seen every week.

No excuses for missing jack graham from north adelaide who went at pick 53 and a year later was a premiership player.

Can just imagine this board if we picked up another treacle slow inside midfielder