2007 Melbourne Cup Thread

[starz]

Fabulous Flemington good to go

ASK Peter Barnett the most striking aspect of the Flemington redevelopment, and the VRC vice-chairman firstly points to the new track.

Without drawing breath, Barnett then moves to the state-of-the-art horse stalls and parade ring next to the 180-metre horse tunnel to the mounting yard. And then he moves to the raised-lawn viewing area.

Fabulous Flemington, which has had a $30 million makeover since it was closed after last year's four-day carnival, is just as its moniker suggests: fabulous in all aspects.

Everything about the track, including more than a liberal lick of paint, clearly sets it apart as the best in the country. For the first time in the history of the racecourse, which dates back to 1840, the racetrack has been completely replaced.

It has seen 124,000 rolls of pre-grown turf laid on the 3.3km racing surface. Incorporated in the renovation is a drainage system, which features more than 3000 drainage lines and connects through a pumping station to the wetland station.

Gone is the cardboard sign above each stall. Each of the new 125 horse stalls, made from spotted gum, will electronically display the name of the horse, trainer, the race in which the horse will run and the jockey.

And the stalls, previously furnace-like, are now ventilated for equine comfort during summer.

 

[sethlad]

Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

Where to find the the best prices for some of the faves & o/s raiders?.

I realise only a few use Betfair & their prices change hourly so I'll post the next best available agency too.
If you are keen on a particular horse that isnt in this thread,let me know & Ill add it.
Hope to update every 2 days

EFFICIENT11 Sptgbet & IAS
M BETTER 11.50 Bfair....$11 elsewhere
TAWQEET 18 Bfair....$12 IAS
P MOON : $17 IAS

MF 20 Bfair...... $13 IAS & Betstar
B MONDAY 26 Bfair & Ctrebet
YEATS 28 Bfair.......$26 IAS & Betstar
L FALCON 44 Bfair.....$26 Sprtgbet & IAS

BELLAMY CAY 50 Bfair.......$21 elsewhere
ZIPPING 26 Bfair,IAS & Betstar
SIPMIONE 44 Bfair......$26 elsewhere
SEPTIMUS 65 Bfair.......$26 IAS

SCORPION 55 Bfair........$36 IAS
T AGREEMENT 80 Bfair......$61 Sptgbet
MARSH SIDE 65 Bfair....$51 Betstar
M EN JEU 130 Bfair.........$51 elsewhere

seth

 

[Jan Juc]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

I wouldn't mind people's thoughts on taking the odds on a horse, who in reality is a bit of a scrubber, will stay all day but needs a wet track, of 200/1+.

Taking these odds with the knowledge that the horse is just about guaranteed (barring mishap between now and then) to make the field. That's the clincher. Doesn't need to meet qualifying clauses. Has enough weight not to be borderline. Has enough non-starters in front of it to make its' current order of entry about 35 places greater than reality.

Is it worth it?

 

[sethlad]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

If its gunna be 200/1 on the day anyway,I'd wait til then.
Long way to go & lots of Cup roughies run 200/1+.

Sounds obvious but the point of taking early prices is to get a price which is well over what will be available later.
What price is it now?

seth

 

[sethlad]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

A couple of $8+ firmers @ Betfair:

YEATS $28 TO $20
SIRMIONE $44 TO $32
SEPTIMUS $65 TO $40

seth

 

[Almost Famous]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

Couldnt agree more seth. The only horses you really want to be backing are ones that are going to start a lot shorter should they run. Its pointless backing something at 20-1 three months out if it will likely be around that price anyway on the day. Simply too many things that can go wrong in the meantime.

 

[starz]

Williams eyes another Cup win

Poetry in motion...Efficient goes through his paces on the revamped Flemington surface.


THERE'S a veteran stayer with so many leg problems he shouldn't be racing, another who has mixed it with the best and the young gun who might be better than them all.

They are Gallic, Zipping and Efficient, and together they form owner Lloyd Williams' "dream team" for the $5.1 million Melbourne Cup this year.

Williams, the former Crown Casino boss, has already won two Melbourne Cups with Just A Dash (1981) and What A Nuisance (1985) but he covets another triumph in the big one.

"I'd like to get the three of them to the Melbourne Cup - Gallic, Zipping and Efficient," Williams said. "There is a long way to go yet but you are allowed to dream.

"As an owner, the Melbourne Cup is the one race you want to win. I've won it twice and would love to win it again."

Williams' trio are among early favourites for the Melbourne Cup and the release of weights by Racing Victoria's chief handicapper Greg Carpenter this week didn't change their high ratings.

Gallic, the eight-year-old who won the Sydney and Adelaide Cups this year, was allocated 55kg. Runaway Victoria Derby winner Efficient has 54kg, while Zipping, last year's Moonee Valley Cup winner and a closing fourth in the Melbourne Cup, has 53.5kg.

"There were no surprises with the Cup weights, I thought they were very predictable," Williams added.

"But I did think Tawqeet was very well weighted with 56.5kg. He is the winner of The Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup last spring and is a very good stayer."

Tawqeet is among the main rivals for Gallic and Zipping when the stayers begin their Melbourne Cup preparations in a star-studded $500,000 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington tomorrow.

The race, formerly known as the Craiglee Stakes, has a reputation for being an excellent Melbourne Cup guide but Williams, a great student of racing, queries that assumption.

"The Craiglee can shape the spring but in the last 20 years only four Melbourne Cup winners have run in the race - Jeune (1994), Subzero (1992), Kingston Rule (1990) and Tawrrific (1989)," he said.

"So, in the last two decades, only 20 per cent of Cup winners have gone through the Craiglee, which isn't all that high."

To further dent the race's reputation, only two horses have managed to win the Craiglee-Melbourne Cup double - Rain Lover (1969) and Light Fingers (1965).

However, the Makybe Diva Stakes has developed into an outstanding lead-up to the Caulfield Cup, Williams pointed out.

"Seven winners of the Caulfield Cup have contested the Craiglee in the past 20 years," he said.

"They are Elvstroem (2004), Mummify (2003), Northerly (2002), Diatribe (2000), Sky Heights (1999), Fraar (1993) and Sydeston (1990)."

Williams said the Caulfield Cup wasn't likely to be part of the spring programs of either Gallic or Efficient but revealed Zipping may start in that race as part of his Melbourne Cup campaign.

Williams said he was very hopeful that Gallic could make the Melbourne Cup this spring.

Just to compete would be an achievement considering what the stayer has endured during his career, he said.

Gallic's history of leg problems began when he sprained a tendon as a three-year-old. He spent 14 months spelling and didn't race again for 77 weeks.

But only four runs into his comeback, Gallic fractured his pelvis in a race at Caulfield and, for some weeks, his life was in the balance.

Gallic eventually recovered but didn't race again for another 70 weeks. He actually made his comeback at this race meeting last year, finishing well back in the Aurie's Star Handicap.

But Williams' courageous stayer soon recaptured top form, winning a second Bendigo Cup last spring before producing career-peak performances in the Adelaide Cup and Sydney Cup earlier this year.

"I'd really love Gallic to get there," Williams said. "He's absolutely my favourite horse after what he has been through. He's actually going really well at the moment, we've been very happy with what he's been doing on the track and he should run a nice race (tomorrow).

"Zipping ran really well in the Melbourne Cup last year and he's a more mature horse now."

Efficient is one of the most exciting stayers in training and made his comeback last week when unplaced behind Miss Finland in the Memsie Stakes.

"Efficient ran okay and Steven Arnold was happy enough with the run," Williams said.

This lightly raced grey looked a world-beater winning the Victoria Derby last year, when Williams sprang a major surprise and paid up for the then three-year-old in the Melbourne Cup.

Efficient was about to attempt to become the first three-year-old since Skipton in 1941 to win the nation's most famous race - until race morning.

After undergoing a veterinary examination, Efficient was found to have soreness in the knee joint of the off-foreleg and was immediately withdrawn from the Melbourne Cup.

 

[Jan Juc]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

The thing I'm talking about, if the race was to be run now, would start around $30-$40. Anything it does this spring will obviously shorten that quote, prob. shortest it could start would be around $16-$20.

Is taking the 200/1+ now worth it?

 

[angus6]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

A couple of $8+ firmers @ Betfair:

YEATS $28 TO $20
SIRMIONE $44 TO $32
SEPTIMUS $65 TO $40

seth

still good odds for sirmione. he ran a eye catcher at caulfield last week and looks as though more distance will suit. and of course there is the bart cummings factor

 

[Almost Famous]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

The thing I'm talking about, if the race was to be run now, would start around $30-$40. Anything it does this spring will obviously shorten that quote, prob. shortest it could start would be around $16-$20.

Is taking the 200/1+ now worth it?

It depnds on what chance you give the horse of making it to the starting gates. If you give it a very good chance then 200-1 is a great price for sure.

 

[Jan Juc]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

It depnds on what chance you give the horse of making it to the starting gates. If you give it a very good chance then 200-1 is a great price for sure.

Guaranteed (barring injury in the interim), even though its' order of entry suggests otherwise.

 

[starz]

Updates

* Zipping's odds for the the Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate have been slashed in half after his first up run in Saturdays Makybe Diva Stakes. He also rocketed into outright Caulfield Cup favourite however it's doubtful he will run being an unsuitable race, owner Lloyd Williams warned punters.
Zipping will have his next run in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on October 6.

Tawqeet also resumed in the Makybe Diva Stakes but his first up run was forgettable. played up before the race and just didn't want to be there finishing last, forgiveable.

Gallic ran on very nicely in the Makybe diva Stakes beat a few home and looks on track for the Melbourne cup.

Falcon's hopes looking sick
IF ONE horse could represent the sheer helplessness of the horse flu disaster, it's the towering bay gelding stranded like a foal in a flood at Corowa.

When the veil was lifted on the much-compromised spring racing carnival at Flemington on Saturday, Leica Falcon, the good horse denied his chance to be great, dozed and swished flies 288km to the north.

He was tragically idle, trapped in limbo by a disease that hasn't bobbed up within cooee of his lush paddock, yet has knocked him out of the spring carnival.

Leica Falcon was to have used Saturday's Makybe Diva Stakes as his second-up launching pad to the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, races he finished fifth and fourth respectively, two years ago.

He was to have stamped himself on the racing scene after two years in recovery and rehabilitation - a miracle in itself - after a serious tendon injury.

But Leica Falcon, now six but with just 11 starts under his belt, is simply running out of time.

Unless officials treat him as an anomaly to a very strict rule - the Department Of Primary Industries will consider his case for a special travel permit today - Leica Falcon could be remembered as the great cameo player.

Trainer Richard Freyer is an old bushie who has survived drought and anything else mother nature has thrown at him.

Last week he took the phone off the hook. This flu, and the stand-still order north of the river, has him beat.

Nursing Leica Falcon back to health after a stem-cell operation two years ago was tough but there was always hope, but this equine influenza is hard to cop.

Leica Falcon's part-owner Alan Eaton says not much creases Freyer's brow, not even hard-luck Cup stories.

'But this has really knocked him around I think. The horse is going really well but he's just trapped. I think Richard, like the rest of us, is feeling really frustrated," Eaton said.

The Freyers and the Albury-based Eatons will today make the four hour trip to Melbourne to meet the DPI and make a plea for special consideration for Leica Falcon to be moved south.

They will tell the DPI Leica Falcon is the best horse the Freyers have had, in more than 80 years and four generations of trainers.

They will say this next 10 weeks is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to put the record straight, to bring the potentially great stayer back to the races, back to the people.

They will argue EI has not bobbed up within hundreds of kilometres of Corowa, which just happens to fall on the wrong side of the river.

Eaton does not expect any favours from the DPI and senses the Melbourne Cup has probably never been further from his grasp, even further than when the big horse was on three legs.

There have been many great racehorses and even more who should have been.

Leica Falcon, tragically, is running out of time.

 

[go fullta]

Zipping's odds for the the Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate have been slashed in half after his first up run in Saturdays Makybe Diva Stakes. He also rocketed into outright Caulfield Cup favourite however it's doubtful he will run being an unsuitable race, owner Lloyd Williams warned punters.
Zipping will have his next run in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on October 6.

i can recall zipping running a cracker early on last campaign up the straight behind bel danoro and el segundo!!

i hope lloyd has learnt his lesson on having him warmed up too early last year, and was burnt out the time he was competing in the majors..
or as seth reckons...zipping just might not be up too it!!

im not afraid to stick my neck out starz, when were talking about zipping!! no aftertiming either..

 

[sethlad]

Not sure where you get your info Starz but Zipping is going to MV tomorrow morning to trial.
Likely to back up on Saturday in the D Tan against Harada & ES

Hopefully Jim Bowler will talk some sense into Lloyd & convince him that the CC is his level.
Just shows you,being a multi millionaire doesnt mean you know anything about horses,especially your own.

You're right GF,he slaughtered this last year,needs some give but ran in everything.
2 runs in a week,looks like lightning is about to strike twice

Dont you have to be a Gp 1 winner to get a Cox Plate run?

seth

 

[sethlad]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

Lots of changes after decs were taken Tuesday.
Expect some serious movement after Sat Night's Irish St Leger

EFFICIENT13 Ctrebet
M BETTER 11 everywhere
TAWQEET 26 Ctrebet
P MOON : $21 Sptgbet & IAS
ZIPPING 15.5 Bfair......$13 Ctrebet & Betstar

MF 15 Ctrebet & TAB
B MONDAY 50 Bfair & Ctrebet
YEATS 21 Betstar
MASTER O'REILLY 17.5 Bfair......$15 Sptgbet

L FALCON 50 Bfair.....$26 Sprtgbet & IAS
BELLAMY CAY 30 Bfair.......$21 elsewhere
SIPMIONE 44 Bfair......$26 elsewhere
SEPTIMUS 38 Bfair.......$26 elsewhere

SCORPION 44 Bfair........$41 IAS
T AGREEMENT $75 Bfair......$61 IAS

seth

 

[OverRated]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

No doubt Yeats will come into favourtism before the race is run at some stage. Seems every year he wont come, then comes, then gets backed for a stack and fails.

 

[starz]

The Melbourne Cup campaign of Efficient is going nicely after finishing the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) strongly and firmed into Cup favouritism.
Both Efficient and Zipping perhaps looking more powerful at the end of 1600m than Cox Plate favourites - Haradasun, El Segundo and Marasco with MF also having queries at 2000m.

I did warn punters Zipping won't run in the Caulfield Cup, a good call.
Not worth getting problems in an unsuitable preliminary gallop again.
Cox Plate is on the radar for Zipping who resumes in the Turnbull (worth repeating) and must be for Efficient after yesterday. Hopefully more of you took the advice on CC and pre-post markets.

Maybe Better ran on again and remains solid in the market.
But remember, He isn't bottom-weight this year.

Yeats overpowered Scorpion in the Irish St Ledger overnight, both ran well and look on track.

 

[starz]

Melbourne Cup movie to hit big screen

Twenty-five years after thrilling Australian audiences with his hit movie Phar Lap, director Simon Wincer is returning to the race track to tell the emotional tale of Melbourne Cup champion Media Puzzle.

The film, titled The Cup, will recreate the Irish thoroughbred's 2002 victory and the heart-wrenching journey jockey Damien Oliver took to get past the winning post at Flemington that year.

Media Puzzle was sent by Irish trainer Dermot Weld to compete in the Cup, despite the six-year-old chestnut gelding being rated a long-shot by the bookies.

But disaster struck just a week before the race that stops a nation when Oliver's brother, fellow jockey Jason Oliver, died after a racing accident in Perth.

Despite his heartbreak at his brother's death, Oliver saddled up for the Cup and rode Media Puzzle to one of the most famous victory's in Australian racing history.

Millions of Australians cheered as Oliver streaked past the winning post and rose out of his saddle to blow a kiss skywards to his brother.
Wincer, a passionate horseman himself, said Media Puzzle's win was one of Australian racing folklore.
"It's not so much a race story, it's human triumph over adversity and that's what is going to appeal to audiences," he told AAP.

"At the heart of the story is Damien's journey, it was an incredibly emotional moment when he crossed the line and looked up to the heavens for his brother.

"By the time Damien gets to the race (in the film) the audience will be racing with him."

Wincer, who also directed Hollywood hit Free Willy as well as The Lighthorsemen and Lightning Jack, is currently in Ireland shooting scenes for the film which is due to hit the big screen during next year's spring racing carnival.
Filming also will be carried out at this year's Melbourne Cup as well as other locations in Sydney, Perth and Dubai.

While Wincer is in the process of buying 70 thoroughbreds to train for the film, he is tight-lipped about who his star actors will be. While ruling out Hollywood stars Russell Crowe and Hugh Jackman, all Wincer would say was that talks were underway continuing with two "leading" Australian actors.

Oliver has agreed to be a technical adviser on the film, some of which will be shot during this November's Melbourne Cup.

 

[sethlad]

Both Efficient and Zipping perhaps looking more powerful at the end of 1600m than Cox Plate favourites - Haradasun, El Segundo and Marasco with MF also having queries at 2000m.

This statement says it all
Unfortunately stayers dont win Cox Plates,not even this year.


I did warn punters Zipping won't run in the Caulfield Cup, a good call.
Not worth getting problems in an unsuitable preliminary gallop again.

If only Lloyd had realised last year that the premier 2400m staying test in the country is a "preliminary gallop".

seth

 

[starz]

Both Efficient and Zipping perhaps looking more powerful at the end of 1600m than Cox Plate favourites - Haradasun, El Segundo and Marasco with MF also having queries at 2000m.

This statement says it all
Unfortunately stayers dont win Cox Plates,not even this year.

You do realise the Cox Plate 2040m is a staying race?
Our best horses have and probably always will do their best work at 1800+
So your point just doesn't hold up.

I did warn punters Zipping won't run in the Caulfield Cup, a good call.
Not worth getting problems in an unsuitable preliminary gallop again.

If only Lloyd had realised last year that the premier 2400m staying test in the country is a "preliminary gallop".

The Melbourne Cup is the premier staying test and a ten times bigger race. The main thing the CC provides for the big guns is getting a solid run under their belt and a chance to win arguably the third biggest group 1.

I don't mean to be depreciative of the Caulfield Cup because it's a super race, one of our best. I am talking more in terms of goals and what they're being peaked and set for.

This years CC favourites Zipping & Efficient are not using it as a lead-up they're actually skipping it altogether.
It's a good call like I said they've got bigger fish to fry, best to keep them fresh.

 

[starz]

Dato sectionals
El sugundo 25.7 33.17 13.76 11.54 12.15
Efficient - 25.86 33.94 13.22 11.74 11.96
Difference (0.16) (0.77) 0.54 (0.20) 0.19

MD Stakes closing sectional
Marasco & Zipping (first up) both ran home in 34.8.

You couldn't possibly put that down to staying power alone, it was 1600m.

 

[starz]

OPENING TAB ODDS
Description Win Place
POP ROCK. $10.00 $3.25
EFFICIENT. $13.00 $4.00
DELTA BLUES. $15.00 $4.50
FIUMICINO. $15.00 $4.50
YEATS. $15.00 $4.50
MAYBE BETTER. $17.00 $5.00
TAWQEET. $17.00 $5.00
TOSHO KNIGHT. $17.00 $5.00
ZIPPING. $17.00 $5.00
TUESDAY JOY. $26.00 $7.25
VIVA PATACA. $26.00 $7.25
BELLAMY CAY. $31.00 $8.50
BLUE MONDAY. $31.00 $8.50
BLUTIGEROO. $31.00 $8.50
EMPIRES CHOICE. $31.00 $8.50
ESKIMO QUEEN. $31.00 $8.50
LEICA FALCON. $31.00 $8.50
MALDIVIAN. $31.00 $8.50
POMPEII RULER. $31.00 $8.50
SCORPION. $31.00 $8.50
SKY CONQUEROR. $31.00 $8.50
SPHENOPHYTA. $31.00 $8.50
FALSTAFF. $41.00 $11.00
GALLIC. $41.00 $11.00
LAZER SHARP. $41.00 $11.00
MAHLER. $41.00 $11.00
MARSH SIDE. $41.00 $11.00
MISS FINLAND. $41.00 $11.00

TAB ODDS TODAY
Description Win Place
EFFICIENT. $6.50 $2.37
MAYBE BETTER. $9.00 $3.00
YEATS. $9.00 $3.00
ZIPPING. $11.00 $3.50
ESKIMO QUEEN. $13.00 $4.00
MASTER OREILLY. $13.00 $4.00
SCORPION. $13.00 $4.00
SEPTIMUS. $13.00 $4.00
MISS FINLAND. $15.00 $4.50
PURPLE MOON. $15.00 $4.50
SIRMIONE. $17.00 $5.00
BLUTIGEROO. $26.00 $7.25
TAWQEET. $26.00 $7.25
ICE CHARIOT. $31.00 $8.50
LEICA FALCON. $31.00 $8.50
CHOLULA. $41.00 $11.00
GALLIC. $41.00 $11.00
MALDIVIAN. $41.00 $11.00
TACIT AGREEMENT.$41.00 $11.00
BAUER. $51.00 $13.50
BELLAMY CAY. $51.00 $13.50
BLACK TOM. $51.00 $13.50
BLUE MONDAY. $51.00 $13.50
DRACS BACK. $51.00 $13.50
LAZER SHARP. $51.00 $13.50
MAHLER. $51.00 $13.50
TUBULAR BELLS. $51.00 $13.50
BLESSED. $61.00 $16.00
MARSH SIDE. $61.00 $16.00
NEW GUINEA. $61.00 $16.00
ON A JEUNE. $61.00 $16.00
RAILINGS. $61.00 $16.00
SKY CONQUEROR. $61.00 $16.00

 

[sethlad]

You do realise the Cox Plate 2040m is a staying race?
Our best horses have and probably always will do their best work at 1800+

WFA horses win Cox Plates...look at the record books
Not stayers who sometimes sprint well early in a prep.
Even you cant deny this.
Zipping & Efficient are yet to go close to winning any WFA race,let alone Australia's best WFA race
This is your opinion but you also consider that sprinters cant be champions because they are weak.


The main thing the CC provides for the big guns is getting a solid run under their belt and a chance to win arguably the third biggest group 1.
I don't mean to be depreciative of the Caulfield Cup because it's a super race, one of our best.

So whats changed,earlier this year you described it as a "crapshoot"
I think thats depreciative

This years CC favourites Zipping & Efficient are not using it as a lead-up they're actually skipping it altogether.
It's a good call like I said they've got bigger fish to fry, best to keep them fresh.

As I said,pity Lloyd didnt work this out last year.
Its only a good call if they manage to win something else,otherwise theyve actually passed up the chance to win a winnable race.
Only time will tell.

seth

 

[starz]

WFA horses win Cox Plates...look at the record books
Not stayers who sometimes sprint well early in a prep.
Even you cant deny this.
Zipping & Efficient are yet to go close to winning any WFA race,let alone Australia's best WFA race
This is your opinion but you also consider that sprinters cant be champions because they are weak.

You obviously don't know much about their careers
I gave you stats for this prep when they ran in WFA against the Cox Plate hotpot favs and you ignored it. How do you come up with this logic?
They barely raced this year because they're being set for the Melbourne cup, even you know that. Unless you can provide reasons and facts why, then your argument remains flawed.

The main thing the CC provides for the big guns is getting a solid run under their belt and a chance to win arguably the third biggest group 1.
I don't mean to be depreciative of the Caulfield Cup because it's a super race, one of our best.

So whats changed,earlier this year you described it as a "crapshoot"
I think thats depreciative

I said the track wasn't playing fair with the leader bias on CC day and the state of the track made it like that. Two of the best wins I have seen were the Caulfield cup - Might and Power was as dominant and arrogant win as you’d see. Then Mummify in 03' holding out The diva who came from last and got badly held up after drawing barrier 18.

Anyway let's leave this and move on. You're on record - Zipping & Efficient are apparently "barely a B grader" and "no accelaration". You also said Miss finland couldn't win in open class against the best so you're right on track for 0/3.

 

[slushpup]

You're on record - Zipping & Efficient are apparently "barely a B grader" and "no accelaration".

where did seth say they are barely b graders? All he's said is that he doesnt think they are WFA horses and therefore wont win the cox plate, which i tend to agree with.