2008 Melbourne Cup

[d-mac3276]

That may be but I could have run 2nd.

Every year the derby form fails to stand up....average stayer beats a group of non stayers.
Bookies put it up $17 for the MC & the punters fall in.

You happy to take $17,Ill give you $34 right now....if you are serious?

seth

I'll take it. So who u on then?

 

[sethlad]

At this stage I'd want $17 about any horse just getting to the race.
Dont mind the pre-post cup bets but usually wait til noms at least.

Especially any horse that missed the Autumn due to injury.

seth

 

[d-mac3276]

At this stage I'd want $17 about any horse just getting to the race.
Dont mind the pre-post cup bets but usually wait til noms at least.

Especially any horse that missed the Autumn due to injury.

seth

Ah well i'm sticking with it as i declared it last year.
I made the mistake of declaring Efficient last year then got off it at the last minute and it bit me in the arse at the odds of $22 and that really pissed me off.

 

[discoduck]

That may be but I could have run 2nd.

Every year the derby form fails to stand up....average stayer beats a group of non stayers.
Bookies put it up $17 for the MC & the punters fall in.

You happy to take $17,Ill give you $34 right now....if you are serious?

seth

i have an association with kibbutz and, as much as i believe he is more than an average stayer as sethlad says, i do agree that you can't be taking the 17s on him at this point.

watch him come out in late august / early september. if he wins or runs well first up, get on him then. you'll still get 13s or 15s, but your bet will be way less risky.

by the way, he's coming along well. lay off may be a blessing in disguise to let the big fella grow into his massive frame. huge potential - whether he matches it or not remains to be seen.

 

[sethlad]

i have an association with kibbutz and, as much as i believe he is more than an average stayer as sethlad says, i do agree that you can't be taking the 17s on him at this point.

watch him come out in late august / early september. if he wins or runs well first up, get on him then. you'll still get 13s or 15s, but your bet will be way less risky.

by the way, he's coming along well. lay off may be a blessing in disguise to let the big fella grow into his massive frame. huge potential - whether he matches it or not remains to be seen.

My exact point
As mentioned,Im not bagging him...actually hope he improves a lot.
Our staying ranks need him & a few others to,otherwise I think the MC is heading o/s.

Geez that OTI racing must be a big group,2nd poster on the Punting Board with a connection.

Luca & Dermott seem to be making preparations & Ballydoyle almost pinched it last year with a horse theyve admitted wasnt the right one to bring.

seth

 

[discoduck]

My exact point
As mentioned,Im not bagging him...actually hope he improves a lot.
Our staying ranks need him & a few others to,otherwise I think the MC is heading o/s.

Geez that OTI racing must be a big group,2nd poster on the Punting Board with a connection.

Luca & Dermott seem to be making preparations & Ballydoyle almost pinched it last year with a horse theyve admitted wasnt the right one to bring.

seth

cefalu_instinct is a pretender compared to me

 

[go fullta]

You must have a strange definition of a roughie GF?
Since 1990 we've had:6 favourites,4 x 2nd faves & 2 x 3rd faves

No winner over $17 & 12 winners under $10 in a 24 horse field.

Last 2 have been fair odds but you can basically rule out anything over $17.
In a MC,$17 is usually 5th or 6th pick because "theres not a lot of depth"

seth

well what ive heard from the media must be all a lie!!

 

[Danger Mouse]

Anyone here follow UK racing? ... There is a horse nominated by the name of "Young Mick" .. I backed him fairly solidly for the cup last year or the year before when they were seriously considering bringing him, anyway he had loads of ability back then, don't know about now though. Any news anyone?

 

[Danger Mouse]

Nevermind, used google and found the answer. The Ebor is on the 20th of this month. A few of the horses in the following article will be going around in it.

Japanese horses closer to Melbourne Cup
AAP | Tuesday, 15 July 2008


Hopes are high Japanese horses will compete at this year's spring carnival in Melbourne as Racing Victoria continues its negotiations with quarantine authorities.


Racing Victoria Limited (RVL) chairman Michael Duffy said today RVL's chief veterinary surgeon Paul O'Callaghan was still negotiating with the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS).

A proposal being considered is that horses do a total of six weeks quarantine split between Japan, Singapore and Australia before competing at the carnival.

That is an improvement on the 60-day quarantine in a neutral country on the way from Japan to Australia since the outbreak of equine influenza in Japan last year which prevented horses coming last year.

Delta Blues, winner of the 2006 Melbourne Cup, heads the list of Japanese horses who will compete at the carnival provided satisfactory quarantine protocols can be arranged.

Pop Rock, runner-up in the 2006 Cup and Cox Plate aspirant Shadow Gate are other likely contenders.

RVL's director of racing operations Leigh Jordan, who visited Japan last month, is currently recruiting horses in Europe for the carnival.

He has spoken to leading stables in the UK including those of Luca Cumani, Sir Michael Stoute and Godolphin.

While Cumani won't be sending last year's Melbourne Cup runner-up Purple Moon, Mad Rush, a last-start winner, and Bauer, part-owned by Terry Henderson and Simon O'Donnell's OTI Racing Syndicate, could come.

Jordan was also targeting the Stoute-trained Patkai, winner of the Queen's Vase (3200m) at Royal Ascot, and Sugar Ray, who beat mad Rush by a neck in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (2400m), also at Royal Ascot, while Godolphin has several possibilities.

Jane Chapple-Hyam, daughter of former Liberal Party leader Andrew Peacock, is keen to bring Yellowstone, winner of the Listed Silver Cup at York, for the Melbourne Cup.

Others who could come are the Andrew Balding-trained Diamond Quest, the Henry Cecil-trained Tranquil Tiger.

Young Mick, prepared by George Margarson, will be a contender if he can run in the first three in the Ebor (2800m), England's premier staying handicap event.

The Aidan O'Brien-trained Septimus is currently the $15 equal Melbourne Cup favourite along side last year's winner Efficient.

 

[boom crash opera]

All the signs point to septimus. anyone got any video footage of him i cant find any?

 

[Lockyer24]

I reckon the best value at this point of those with genuine claims is Danny O'Briens pair Master O'Reilly $26 and Gallopin $35, particularly the former.

I was suprised to see Master O'Reilly ran a 2nd on Liston Stakes day last year in a middle distance race which meant he must have been up for a long time. He romped in the Caulfield Cup and was obviously flat by the time November rolled round. Don't think it was too far for him.

Maldivian $35 and Light Vision $101 will be my only other long range speculative bets.

 

[coughs2richo]

Tuesday Joy's the tip for me

 

[brooklynbute]

hey seth u seem to be good at tipping things that cant win the cup...i no u can dam well tip a trotter...but how about a tip for the cup early on instead of bagging a derby winner

 

[sethlad]

hey seth u seem to be good at tipping things that cant win the cup...i no u can dam well tip a trotter...but how about a tip for the cup early on instead of bagging a derby winner

I didnt bag him,just cant believe he's $17.
1 Derby winner in 100 yrs wins a Cup & suddenly its a good form reference?

Im pretty confident we wont be able to keep it here.
As for which one,the guys that trained the placegetters last year seem pretty keen to come back.
Know a guy who's across that form,will let you know when I hear if you like.

Meanwhile a couple of the OTI guys post here, they should have a decent grasp of the UK form

seth

 

[brooklynbute]

I didnt bag him,just cant believe he's $17.
1 Derby winner in 100 yrs wins a Cup & suddenly its a good form reference?

Im pretty confident we wont be able to keep it here.
As for which one,the guys that trained the placegetters last year seem pretty keen to come back.
Know a guy who's across that form,will let you know when I hear if you like.

Meanwhile a couple of the OTI guys post here, they should have a decent grasp of the UK form

seth

yeah phar lap and efficent...phar lap coulda of won the derby then the cup 2 hours later so that dosnt matter...so the efficent thing might of been a big fluke....let us no when u like sumthin at the early odds...but the form does seem to be overseas

 

[ECHUCABOY]

Tuesday Joy's the tip for me

Im with you Coughlan

 

[KardiniaPark]

You must have a strange definition of a roughie GF?
Since 1990 we've had:6 favourites,4 x 2nd faves & 2 x 3rd faves

No winner over $17 & 12 winners under $10 in a 24 horse field.

Last 2 have been fair odds but you can basically rule out anything over $17.
In a MC,$17 is usually 5th or 6th pick because "theres not a lot of depth"

seth

What?. Im sure brew paid $25+?

 

[KardiniaPark]

As for a tip ill wait till the day before. You cant win money if your horse aint there!

 

[sethlad]

What?. Im sure brew paid $25+?

Nah,before it won the Saab on the Saturday there would have been $25+
Officially started $15

seth

 

[Rough_Edges]

Still confidentish on Leica Falcon - hope he is over his injury thats all.

Hasn't raced for a long time except a last in a 1400 meter race.

 

[bigkev bleeds purple]

Guyno has been nominated for the cups and ran an excellent first up second in the Listed Goodwood Sprint over 1300m at Belmont Park today, coming from second last on the turn. He's a Group One winner over 2400m and Lou Luciani has said that he's set for his best campaign yet. Watch this space.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Sixties Icon at 26/1 is a good each way bet, decent stayer and consistenly mixes it up well with Yeats, Duke of Maramalade and co.

 

[Lockyer24]

I reckon the best value at this point of those with genuine claims is Danny O'Briens pair Master O'Reilly $26 and Gallopin $35, particularly the former.

I was suprised to see Master O'Reilly ran a 2nd on Liston Stakes day last year in a middle distance race which meant he must have been up for a long time. He romped in the Caulfield Cup and was obviously flat by the time November rolled round. Don't think it was too far for him.

Maldivian $35 and Light Vision $101 will be my only other long range speculative bets.

Gallopin $35 -> $51
Maldivian $35 -> $17
Light Vision $101 -> $51

 

[go fullta]

Gallopin $35 -> $51
Maldivian $35 -> $17
Light Vision $101 -> $51

great work lockyer, but theres a long way to go yet mate!!

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Maldivian $35 -> $17

Have heard his name pop up a few times in this thread, and people seem to be pecking at him early on, doesn't he have question marks over the distance..? I thought he'd be more of a sprinter type, but haven't really looked in depth with him though, so would be happy for someone to prove me wrong.