2012 Draft wish list

[strobe00]

Ok. I will just have to be excited about Membrey on my own.

I'm sure you won't be alone there.

 

[apuchar]

I'm still very happy to "Reach" for Shaw at 17, given he fits our needs, isn't going to run off home and was talented enough to kick a bag in a grand final two years ago before Mitch Brown broke his jaw and derailed his season.

We aren't talking about pick 5 here, it should be the last pick of round one.

I agree. But if you believe the talk it isn't going to happen. Like you, I would love to have him for all the reasons you mentioned, especially the fact that he is a Freo supporter and he is a tall marking forward, which we were quite happy to spend a million a year to get a couple of months ago.

 

[apuchar]

Quigley's opinion on Shaw from his Phantom draft.

Pick 17 – Fremantle

Fremantle have tried desperately to get a KPF the last two years and I think it’s time to go the draft route for one. Shaw and O’Brien are the two that I would be targeting if I was Fremantle and when in doubt go with the local boy. They would have had a lot of opportunity to look at Shaw and make a call on him and following what they do here could be an excellent indicator of his likely success.

Mason Shaw
DOB: 15/1/94 Ht: 198 Wt: 87

Coming into the year I had great interest in Shaw and was hoping against hope that the Lions would be in a position to grab him in the draft. Now nine months on I am hoping we pass on him. For someone of his talent he has been a major disappointment this year and to me just does not look like he has the skill set to succeed at AFL level. One big thing in his favour though is that he can kick goals and bags of them. Physically he is also a good match for the AFL so some team is going to take a punt on him and at the moment I find it hard to judge whether that will be sooner or later.

Shaw is a full forward who plays some ruck on occasion. At AFL level I think it’s highly likely that he will play the same positions. In the ruck he is regularly outbodied even against the moderate ruck talent he faced at the Champs this year and against AFL standard rucks he is likely to be barely competitive. If he is going to play as a second ruck in the AFL I would expect that the team that drafts him is going to need to put significant work into his ruck skills and his strength work. At the moment he probably suits a team with a dominant ruckman who needs only short bursts of relief.

As a full forward Shaw is a great proponent of the stretch mark. He judges the ball very well in the air and positions his body to keep his opponent under control and use his height to mark. He frequently plays from behind. When he plays in front or is in a wrestle with the ball coming in he is often maneuvered under the ball, perhaps a little too easily given his size. He plays very much like Mitch Clark did for the last couple of years at the Lions where he basically only wants the ball kicked onto his head and refuses to lead. As Clark found out that kind of thing does not work at AFL level. With that said a true strength of his game is his soft hands above his head and if he can get a shot at the ball he is a pretty good mark.

Shaw’s leading up forward is very poor. He does not lead for the ball nearly enough and when he does there are no repeat efforts. He is slow off the mark and takes a while to get up to full speed and full speed is not very impressive. Agility wise he seems to have lost quite a bit since last year when he seemed fairly elusive for a big forward. Now he often looks like a ruck playing up forward with the turning circle of a semi-trailer. I am not sure what is going on there but work definitely needs to be done on it. Given his lack of speed, agility and repeat leads he rarely if ever has separation from the man marking him and consequently is pretty easy to spoil. His poor leading and lack of scope to improve it athletically is what causes me great concern about whether Shaw will ever be much of an AFL player.

When he gets a shot at goal Shaw is a very good finisher. He has a bit of a low hold on the ball but his mechanics are consistent and good and he kicks through the ball nicely. His accuracy on his medium range shots is particularly good. Around the ground he uses chips and short punching kicks mostly and he is very effective with those. When he goes longer he has reasonable penetration but is not the best weight of a kick and they are prone to going over the targets head or falling short (most often the latter from what I have seen).

If the ball is not delivered to him on a platter Shaw does not seem to make much effort to get involved in the play. He bludges around behind the pack quite a lot in those situations and occasionally picks up a goal through good luck which flatters his goal tally. His body language is often poor and he provides little or no chase and defensive pressure when the ball comes out. At AFL level he will be hammered for this by the coaching staff, his teammates and the supporters. It could well be that his lack of pressure results from poor endurance and whilst that could well be a factor it looks more like a lack of effort to me.

It is often said that Shaw seems to be just playing out the year and waiting to be taken by and AFL club and that may be the case. He rarely has to do a great deal to score goals in the juniors. He is capable of dominating and has stepped up in the grand finals the last two years kicking big bags to help his team get over the line. I do think he is going to be in for a rude shock when he gets to the next level though. His development this year was probably not helped by Mitch Brown of West Coast breaking his jaw early in the season. In the end he managed only 10 games in the Colts and nothing higher than that. He finished with 32 goals from those games which is a good return but the manner in which he went about it was not that impressive.

With all that said someone is going to take Shaw because of his size and underlying talent but there are a LOT of question marks surrounding him. Personally I would not want to take him too early but if a team is convinced that he has the tools to dominate at the next level and just needs a kick up the behind to do that then it would not surprise if someone takes him earlier than his performance this year warranted.

 

[Scham]

Well, I'd be pretty friggin unhappy. Third tall forward. What a waste of a first round pick.

Mayne is already established in this role. Mellington can probably work there in a pinch... he's about the same height.

A key position tall is the real need. If we pick up an undersized junior KPF who hasn't done any work in the midfield, then I'll spew.

I agree with that in terms of the Courier Mail Phantom. If O'Brien, Garlett, Clurey and Shaw were available at our pick but we went with Membrey then I'd be disappointed too. Nothing against Membrey but we'd have the chance to address our needs with one of those four.

 

[Scham]

Quigley's assessment sounds about right for a pick 17.

 

[Dudley Leopard]

Everytime I make a prediction it is invariably wrong - I am the master of the Reverse Mock.

However here goes :

I am prophesizing that we will pick Mason Shaw at 17 with Marco Paparone and Harrison Marsh in the 2nd round. Mason trained with us last pre season and did not look out of place.

We will have 3 WA boys + two talls and a Chernobyl scale meltdown on the BF Freo board will have been averted.

 

[Chris25]

I'm fairly sure Harrison Marsh will be #1 on our list when it comes to our second round picks.

 

[Nickos66]

Any relation to the Marsh bros...??

 

[Dudley Leopard]

I'm fairly sure Harrison Marsh will be #1 on our list when it comes to our second round picks.

If his draft video is anything to go by he would be a very good pickup. A real dasher of the HB line with a great boot. The good thing is we have all our picks before the Eagles first.

 

[Scham]

Everytime I make a prediction it is invariably wrong - I am the master of the Reverse Mock.

However here goes :

I am prophesizing that we will pick Mason Shaw at 17 with Marco Paparone and Harrison Marsh in the 2nd round. Mason trained with us last pre season and did not look out of place.

We will have 3 WA boys + two talls and a Chernobyl scale meltdown on the BF Freo board will have been averted.

Sounds good and very feasible.

I'm going to go slightly left field and predict Shaw, Jarrod Leinhert and Shane Nelson. Two WA, one SA. A tall forward, a tall defender and a mid.

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

I'm fairly sure Harrison Marsh will be #1 on our list when it comes to our second round picks.

hi Chris can you give a bt more about Marsh and why you like him also I notice your keen on Hrovat and no doubt he gets the ball a lot but i see in the clips on him he is a little and many steps guy as compared to say Cousens and Toby Greene who take big steps and stretch out as they break away and deliver the ball. I wonder how that type of movement of Hrova's would stand up in the afl ......your thoughts

 

[Righteo]

If his draft video is anything to go by he would be a very good pickup. A real dasher of the HB line with a great boot. The good thing is we have all our picks before the Eagles first.

Sounds more like someone we'd use our first rounder on.

 

[Chris25]

hi Chris can you give a bt more about Marsh and why you like him also I notice your keen on Hrovat and no doubt he gets the ball a lot but i see in the clips on him he is a little and many steps guy as compared to say Cousens and Toby Greene who take big steps and stretch out as they break away and deliver the ball. I wonder how that type of movement of Hrova's would stand up in the afl ......your thoughts

I think Marsh's career goes the way of David Mundy - starts off on a back flank, before eventually moving into the midfield full time. In the U18 Championships, he played as more of a KPD but his running game is really impressive for someone 189cm and 82kg. And, he is a very good kick of the ball. Short term, he could be our McPhee/Roberton replacement. Long term, the answer to our midfield woes.

On the same note, I could see us taking a good look at Tom Langdon and maybe Jarrod Lienert - pick 40 would probably be the top of their ranges. Langdon is a 189cm defender who is almost ready made at 18 years of age and could slot into McPhee's role straight away. Maybe not the most flashy player, but he is very solid. While Lienert is 192cm, and would basically be a like for like Roberton replacement.

As for Hrovat, can I just copy Quigley's write up?

You have to admire a kid who does not accept defeat and just goes out there and plays so well he demands to be picked. This year that player is Hrovat. For conventional wisdom Hrovat is too short and not athletic enough to compensate. Only a few years ago Hrovat would have had very little chance of being picked but thankfully things have moved on a bit.

This year Hrovat has made every post a winner. He was selected to be Capt of Vic Metro and lead them very well. He was a high possession winner at the Champs (25.2 disposals per game) and made the AA side whilst leading Metro to the title. Due to other commitments he only played 8 TAC games but managed to pick up the Best and Fairest for the Knights. All pretty bloody good for a kid to short and too slow.

Hrovat somewhat because of his size is thought of predominantly as an inside player but he has shown some excellent outside skills this year. He has really worked on his endurance and whilst he tested pretty mid-pack his ability to spread and work the wings is up there with blokes right at the pointy end of this draft. He is smart and gets to good positions to receive and provide an option if needed. He is never going to be a big marking target but he is a good mark for his size and I would back him against guys bigger than himself.

One thing I love about Hrovat is that he does everything at speed. A lot of guys cruise in junior level and then struggle when the pace of the game goes up. Hrovat has been practicing playing at pace this entire year and he does it well. His attack on the ball is first class and his thinking on the go is very good. He plays on quickly and works to link to move the ball quickly very well. He has been playing AFL style football against junior opposition.

Another thing which is very much AFL style is his kicking. He has flattened his kicking out really well and he punches his passes to his targets. He does not have a typical loopy junior kick. He has a reasonable leg on him but tends not to go long very often preferring chips or ¾ strength kicks. His accuracy and decision making is good at those distances and combined with the flatness of his kicks I think will convert to AFL football pretty well. He is strongly right footed. Up forward he doesn’t have the most confident approach to goal and will look to pass off if there is a reasonable option. When he does take the shot he kicks through it well but the accuracy can be a bit variable.

Unlike a lot of guys his size I do not see him starting his AFL career up forward. His goal kicking and goal awareness are not great and his pace is below what you would like for a defensive small forward. At the Combine he did not test well for pace which was not a surprise but his terrible 5m times might have hurt a big. I think he does play quicker than he times and he uses what pace he does have well but even his most optimistic supporter would have to concede his pace as being no more than average.

When on the inside he is a player who will camp at the ruck’s feet and work his way out from there. He has good quick hands and gets the ball to foot in those situations quicker than anyone I can think of in this draft. He is not a big bloke but is strong over the ball and maintains nice balance in the contest. He has good awareness of where everyone is in the contest and this allows him to get the ball out and also feel when a tackler is coming. When tackled he keeps his arms free well and does not panic at first contact. He rides the contact well, maintains balance and gets the ball away nicely. Inside he will also throw himself into tackles and is generally good but is a little prone to bouncing off the really big blokes in there (eg it happened a couple of times at the Champs with Stringer that I noticed).

It’s possible that Hrovat could struggle against the bigger quicker athletes in the AFL but I would tend to back him in given how well he has stepped up to every level so far.

I'm not his biggest fan going around, but he would be the best inside midfielder we have a shot at in this draft. And honestly, I just don't see him failing at the next level.

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

I think Marsh's career goes the way of David Mundy - starts off on a back flank, before eventually moving into the midfield full time. In the U18 Championships, he played as more of a KPD but his running game is really impressive for someone 189cm and 82kg. And, he is a very good kick of the ball. Short term, he could be our McPhee/Roberton replacement. Long term, the answer to our midfield woes.

On the same note, I could see us taking a good look at Tom Langdon and maybe Jarrod Lienert - pick 40 would probably be the top of their ranges. Langdon is a 189cm defender who is almost ready made at 18 years of age and could slot into McPhee's role straight away. Maybe not the most flashy player, but he is very solid. While Lienert is 192cm, and would basically be a like for like Roberton replacement.

As for Hrovat, can I just copy Quigley's write up?



I'm not his biggest fan going around, but he would be the best inside midfielder we have a shot at in this draft. And honestly, I just don't see him failing at the next level.

as usual an excellent informed reply - thanks - after readng that must say Hrovat seems lke he has the passion to improve and succeed very interesting.

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

so Chris if we were seriously consdering a kpp wth our first pick where would we stop at before lookng to best available/ best mid I suspect there are four but after that the tactic would change thinkng Plowman, Jaeksh, Stringer and possibly Mason , after that mmmmmm

 

[Chris25]

Even though I still rate him as a first round pick, general thought in the media is that Mason Shaw is a second round pick. I'm sure we look at him with #17, but I think it's more likely we take our chances and hope he slides to our second. Which maybe means we don't look at talls in the first round at all? But if we did...

Plowman and Jaksch should be gone. Stringer could be there, but smart money is on Geelong taking him just before us. That leaves Tim O'Brien as the highest rated KPF - highly likely to go to Collingwood or Adelaide if we were to overlook him. So, definitely in our range. Other people have mentioned Tim Membrey, but he is just a stronger Chris Mayne which isn't something we really need. The others are Spencer White and Mason Wood, but it's maybe a touch early for each.

Otherwise, one of Tom Clurey and Aidan Corr are also likely to be available as KPDs. But I don't think we'll go for a tall defender so early - maybe not at all, considering we kept Faulks and Silvagni.

 

[Dudley Leopard]

It may be completely off the mark but I keep getting a sneaky feeling that Freo have "hid" Mason a little to make certain he slides down to our pick. One of the more knowledgeable posters made the comment that he looked liked he was just marking time in 2012..waiting to get picked in the AFL.

 

[Chris25]

That might have actually been me who said that. So, it must be right.

I think both Shaw and Josh Simpson are big game players. For those types of players, getting up each week when you know you'll be at an AFL club next year wouldn't be easy. And it's harder to hide that for a KPP or outside midfielder, because they aren't in the thick of things by virtue of their position. That might be way off and it's not a question of their work ethic, but it just appeared as though they were just getting through this year at times.

 

[E Shed]

I'll be very surprised if we take Shaw at 17. I think it's worth a risk considering the midfiled depth we have but what would I know.
Those paying out on Bond, reflect on what our list was like at the end of 2008. You couldn't find 22 players you'd want out there, now I want to fit about 30 in.

 

[apuchar]

I'll be very surprised if we take Shaw at 17. I think it's worth a risk considering the midfiled depth we have but what would I know.
Those paying out on Bond, reflect on what our list was like at the end of 2008. You couldn't find 22 players you'd want out there, now I want to fit about 30 in.

yeah, but they all play in the same position.

 

[Dudley Leopard]

yeah, but they all play in the same position.

Exactly. We need talls. We dont need mids or smalls except as icing on the cake. I know Lloyd and Bond have done a great job in spotting us some serious talent but there comes a time when the "pick the best available" approach has to be put aside for a more pragmatic needs based one. We look like having 3 picks in the ND and 1 in the PSD - 4 over all. They have to take the punt on at least 3 talls IMO.
What we have now will get us by in the short term - but if we lose Pav and Luke to long term injuries our season is shot

 

[Latro]

You can never have too many quality midfielders.

Why are people attacking Bond for a draft he has not even done yet?

 

[scon]

as usual an excellent informed reply - thanks - after readng that must say Hrovat seems lke he has the passion to improve and succeed very interesting.

Ditto from me Chris25, and would you care to give us your take on our off season movements thus far.
Along with all the other clubs we'll sit somewhere between asleep at the wheel,T-boned/blind-sided,drifting in a Porsche and accelerating out of the corner or attempting to get a clapped out clunker over the line!
What do you reckon has gone on with our much vaunted list management model over the past month?
Cheers.

 

[Scham]

That might have actually been me who said that. So, it must be right.

I think both Shaw and Josh Simpson are big game players. For those types of players, getting up each week when you know you'll be at an AFL club next year wouldn't be easy. And it's harder to hide that for a KPP or outside midfielder, because they aren't in the thick of things by virtue of their position. That might be way off and it's not a question of their work ethic, but it just appeared as though they were just getting through this year at times.

A few people made that exact same comment about Darlings final year before being drafted. Seemed to be going through the motions knowing full well that he'd be drafted. Once drafted and in an AFL environment he's flourished. It would've been a hard season for Shaw to shine with the above reasons plus the face injury.

 

[yakka man]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...o-the-2012-national-draft-20121116-29hnj.html

DRAFT DAY: The Dockers will take three picks and there's a bit of wait-and-see when it comes to pick 17. The classy Josh Simpson, who moved back to Perth this year after finishing school in Adelaide, seems made for the expanses of Subiaco and would be a good choice. Problem is he would have to get past Gold Coast, North and Geelong first. There's a very slight chance Kristian Jaksch, the draft's standout key forward after Joe Daniher, may still be available and while he's not at the top of the Dockers' list they would consider him; Fremantle has always picked the best player on its list early in drafts, regardless of apparent needs, but they haven't got any young tall forwards on the go and, having missed on Claremont's Tom Lee - traded to St Kilda as one of GWS' pre-listed players - they will want to get started on one soon. South Australian Tim O'Brien, another big marking forward, is right in the mix, as is Nick Graham, an inside onballer, while Taylor Garner could appeal. In the Dockers' dreams, Brodie Grundy would slide all the way to them, but the club may look for a tall later in the draft. They have been linked with local defender Harry Marsh, with forward Mason Shaw some chance to slip to 37.

Would be stoked with Shaw at 37. Doubt it will happen though.