Analysis 2016 AFL Fixture

[Bleedblueandgold]

I'm tipping 15-18 wins. Could've been worse, at least we have no games in Tasmania.

 

[Keys]

We did have an easier draw than most other teams this year ..

The myth continues

This statement isn't true

 

[Quinz]

The myth continues

This statement isn't true

Perception > Reality

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/afl/a/29939675/short-spells-to-trouble-eagles/



I'd argue that with Hawthorn, Norf and Richmond all being Melbourne clubs the effect of multiple 6 day breaks is somewhat eased by virtue of less travel than a non-Vic club. In this aspect of the fixturing we've been deadset dudded.
Interesting to see that Fremantle are whinging about their travel but they only have five 6-day breaks, fewer than the league average.

Hawks have Melb to Melb. A Melb to Taz to Melb double.
A Sydney to Melb. A Taz to Melb. A Melb to melb. A Melb to Taz.
They finish with a 6 day break against us in round 22 where they travel Melb to Perth.

North go from Brisbane to Taz on their first 6 day break. Next is Melb to Gold Coast then back it up with another 6 day break with a game in Melb. A Melb to Melb 6 dayer then one Melb to Sydney.
Then a Melb to Melb to Adelaide 6 day break double.
Then another back to back with Perth to Melb to Melb.
OUCH. But 6 of their last 7 are in Melb and all are 7 day breaks except one.

Richmond get a Melb to Perth. Then a Melb to Melb to Melb double.
A Melb to Taz. A Melb to Adelaide.
A Melb to Sydney to Melb double.
Finish with a Melb to Melb 6 day break.

West Coast get a Melb to Perth to Perth double.
A Perth to Geelong.
A Perth to Adelaide (Port game)
A Melb to Perth.
A Melb to Perth.
A Perth to Sydney to Perth double.

 

[Keys]

Perception > Reality

This post belongs in the POTY thread


Wait wut

 

[Lucky Luc]

When are we going to make a stand about 6 day breaks when we have to travel so much???
Seriously the AFL has such compromised fixturing .....traveling sides cop it in the neck compared to Vic sides..i dont know how they can keep straight faces over this farce.

 

[ep2018]

The myth continues

This statement isn't true

But everyone on the AFL facebook page say it all the time so it must be true??? (and apparently Kennedy is a flat track bully!)

 

[YippeeYiYeo]

pretty happy with that draw. Good to finally skip the tasmania crap weve been served year after year. 3 games at the MCG whilst not great is an improvement over last year. Dont care for 6 day breaks. Think they are overrated. Quite a few teams had 6 day breaks and beat teams coming off a bye.

 

[iLikeIt]

The myth continues

This statement isn't true

It is also subjective so it isn't untrue either. Should have qualified it with "in my opinion" because I still stand by it and it isn't influenced by other teams saying we had an easy draw and that's why we finished 2nd (we finished 2nd because we were bloody good - so good that many have tipped us to finish 1st next season with what was an anticipated tougher draw). The five teams we played twice were Freo (this is always the case), Bulldogs, Adelaide, St Kilda and Gold Coast. We played Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong at home, and North, Richmond and Port away. IMO our draw could have been much tougher. I didn't say it was the easiest, I said it was easier than most other teams, and more so the other teams in the top 4 imo. But we came from 9th the year before so it's fair enough that we had the draw we did - we didn't get a free ride like a lot of other team supporters (eg Richmond) were saying mid season until we beat them at the MCG. It was inevitable given we finished 2nd this time around that our draw would be tougher next year. And imo it is.

 

[Dylan82]

As posted on the main forum fixture thread, extract from the 2016 update to the ultimate fixture sheet:


Default weighting of 1.5:1.0 ratio for opposition strength verus travel distance.

Opposition Strength weighted according to 2015 finishing position (1st +20%,... 18th -20%)

Travel is weighted according to distance - for example values for 500-1000km travel [MEL-ADE] have a 5% weighting, whilst 2000-3000km travel [MEL-PER] have a 10% weighting.


Going by this model, the 2016 fixture is hardest for Adelaide and softest for Essendon.

Look out for Geelong and Port Adelaide with what appear to be a suprisingly easier set of matches than would be expected.

Conversely, GWS look to be in for a tough time and may struggle more than expected in 2016 with this fixture.

Also of note is Fremantle being on the receiving end of having to travel interstate whilst being on a 6 day break when the opposition has 2 or more additional days rest TWICE this year - in round 6 vs Adelaide and again in round 14 vs Collingwood.

Gold Coast (round 22 vs Collingwood), Melbourne (round 20 vs Fremantle) and Collingwood (round 6 vs West Coast) also have an occurance of this this in their fixture - which only happened once in the entire 2015 fixture when Richmond hosted West Coast in round 12.


Our draw (as to be expected after finishing 2nd) is harder for this coming season than it was in 2015.
An additional game versus top 4 opposition (5 compared to 4) and an additional 6 day break (8 compared to 7).

Using the opposition strength weighting detailed above, last year we had the 11th hardest fixture when travel is excluded, whereas this year it is 9th.


However what appears easy or hard in the fixture today may not be so by the end of the season.

For example, due to the improvements and regressions of certain teams, the 2015 fixture ended up being very favourable to Hawthorn and much tougher on Gold Coast:




In all, not really much other than what was to be expected for us in this fixure, the biggest positive getting 3 day matches at the MCG - we had none in 2015 apart from the GF.

 

[Patron]

Its pretty terrible. Especially given the teams we play twice. Only updside for me is 3 MCG games. Which shouldn't really be something to celebrate that should be a given.

 

[WCEswift]

GWS with a tougher draw than hawks? sounds legit.

 

[dajesmac]

Meh. Who knows how difficult it will actually end up. Some teams will improve and others will drop off a cliff. For instance, Adelaide or the Dogs could sink back to being easy beats next year.

 

[MWPP]

Contrary to Mark Duffield's article in the West Australian today, we play Brisbane twice , not Geelong.

I feel sorry for Adelaide- they have the toughest draw (3x top 4 sides like us/Hawks/North, but they're the only team to also have 0 bottom 6 double-ups).

 

[pantskyle]

Maybe I'm in the minority but I really like our draw, we have some tough blockbuster games early against top sides, three MCG games.

To be the best you've got to beat the best so let's become the best. Simples.

 

[Biggie]

Maybe I'm in the minority but I really like our draw, we have some tough blockbuster games early against top sides, three MCG games.

To be the best you've got to beat the best so let's become the best. Simples.

I agree.

 

[06Premiers]

Maybe I'm in the minority but I really like our draw, we have some tough blockbuster games early against top sides, three MCG games.

To be the best you've got to beat the best so let's become the best. Simples.

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

 

[Dylan82]

GWS with a tougher draw than hawks? sounds legit.

GWS have 7 games against the top 5 teams from last year (same number as Hawthorn) but only play in Sydney 10 times, one of those at the SCG.

Instead they get campaigned around to 10 different venues across the country - it's not an easy fixture.


Hawks on the other hand have 13 games in Melbourne (10 at the MCG), 4 in home-away-from-home Launceston and only are outside of VIC / Tas just 5 times...

 

[triplegee]

GWS with a tougher draw than hawks? sounds legit.

Sounds a lot like the Australian Football Lottery at play to me...

 

[ChampRevesby]

It really doesn't matter who we play where or when, if we want to win the comp then we must be competitive under all conditions. I just want to season to start already.

 

[dajesmac]

I actually think the lack of travel in the second half of the season hurt us a bit. It was as though when we actually did travel, we were worse for not being used to it. This would tie in with why Vic sides struggle interstate as they travel so rarely.

In the last, what was it 10 weeks? We only travelled to Adelaide, the Gold Coast and the MCG for the GF and we were horrendous in all three games.

 

[Suma Magic]

Chances of winning each game:

Round 1 v Brisbane - 0.95
Round 2 @ Hawthorn - 0.3
Round 3 v Freo - 0.55
Round 4 v Richmond - 0.65
Round 5 @ Sydney - 0.4
Round 6 v Collingwood - 0.8
Round 7 @ Geelong - 0.4
Round 8 v St Kilda - 0.9
Round 9 @ Port - 0.4
Round 10 v Gold Coast - 0.9
Round 11 @ Bulldogs - 0.5
Round 12 v Adelaide - 0.7
Round 13 @ Brisbane - 0.7
Bye
Round 15 v Essendon - 0.85
Round 16 v North Melbourne - 0.65
Round 17 @ Carlton - 0.9
Round 18 v Melbourne - 0.9
Round 19 @ Collingwood - 0.6
Round 20 @ Freo - 0.55
Round 21 @ GWS - 0.6
Round 22 v Hawthorn - 0.6
Round 23 @ Adelaide - 0.5

That gives us a total of 14.3 wins. Hopefully I've been conservative and we can get 15+.

Based on what I've put, we could have:
- 6 definite wins
- 3 probable wins
- 7 could/should win
- 2 50/50s
- 3 could/should lose
- 1 probable loss

 

[ep2018]

I see two likely losses... Hawks at the MCG and Cats at SS. Everything else is at least 50/50 or probable win.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

I see two likely losses... Hawks at the MCG and Cats at SS. Everything else is at least 50/50 or probable win.

Lol @ Cats anywhere.

 

[Doughboy]

I see two likely losses... Hawks at the MCG and Cats at SS. Everything else is at least 50/50 or probable win.

Nah, fsk it, I am feeling optimistic

Lets go undefeated!!