Analysis 2016 AFL Trade Week Thread

[Janus]

Not Battle.

Taranto/SPS, Drew/Kerr, Powell-Pepper.

Jizz worthy.

 

[PepeSilvia]

PS the Jasper compensation everyone is going on about, is to replace Jasper. Who replaces our potential 6-10 pick that we threw away? It makes no sense.

We're going to end up with a MASSIVE hole in our list.

I'd have thought Bonner is the obvious long-term replacement for Pittard. If Pittard decides to leave at the end of 2017, that just gets fast-tracked.

Not sure Riley will ever be as good a defender as Jasper, but am confident that he can be as damaging on the rebound.

 

[Jakksynn]

Can someone explain to me how we win this trade? Without finishing top 4 next year because that's almost delusional. I can see how we break even, but I don't see how we win this trade. And that makes the risk even worse

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Other pundits have been mentioning that the 2017 draft crop is slightly comprimised by the fact that the decent KP players are academy tied. If that's true, then that is slightly better.

One of them (the most highly rated one) may be Todd Marshall'd though - Jarrod Brander.

First of all, there's no way in hell Wentworth should be tied to GWS. Its team is part of the Sunraysia Football League - the only way it seems GWS might be stuffed though, is that he spends half his time living across the river in Mildura.

 

[Harro59]

I have temporarily embraced my inner peace and will wait to see what we get with our 3 picks before continuing my trajectory to a pant shitting heart attack..

So what happens if we land a gun mid with pick 9 and Marshell or Battle with 19?.

Pick 30 with Graham if he is still there.

That would be interesting I woukd say.

Also note we have a few free agents next year with a stack of out of contract guys so its fair to say we can probably trade our way back into next years first round.

 

[Janus]

One of them (the most highly rated one) may be Todd Marshall'd though - Jarrod Brander.

First of all, there's no way in hell Wentworth should be tied to GWS. Its team is part of the Sunraysia Football League - the only way it seems GWS might be stuffed though, is that he spends half his time living across the river in Mildura.

So he goes 1. We're never going to be THAT bad.

 

[Harro59]

Not Battle.

Taranto/SPS, Drew/Kerr, Powell-Pepper.

Jizz worthy.

That would add some talent.

 

[Steve Dore]

Can someone explain to me how we win this trade? ......

 

[Port 2004]

He is right. I'm real happy we've got 3 top 30 picks in this years pool.

Does stronger = deeper ??

Not according to one recruiting guy that I know. The good tall next year are academy tied.

 

[Macca19]

Other pundits have been mentioning that the 2017 draft crop is slightly comprimised by the fact that the decent KP players are academy tied. If that's true, then that is slightly better.

I'd say the 2 best KPP at this stage are academy tied, but theres another half dozen or so that look really good at this stage.

 

[FallingLiefs]

if we make the 8 next year, we shouldn't draft a KPP anyway.

hate mail <-

 

[Portology]

Other pundits have been mentioning that the 2017 draft crop is slightly comprimised by the fact that the decent KP players are academy tied. If that's true, then that is slightly better.

Hold that thought.

I liked this post on the other thread, about that pick trade that has a few people turning cheese melts into burning-down-the-house fires...

In Monopoly, if you'd sold Park Lane and bought Oxford Street and Regent Street you'd probably have done well. Let's hope those 2nd rounders don't turn out to be Whitechapel and Old Kent Road.

...on second thoughts, it's almost another "points value" post, but as a different analogy it has some things going for it.

we seem to be betting that we ultimately trade out not Park Lane but Bond St... for two green properties. the second half is that we're backing ourselves in to pick two green or even yellow properties instead of whitechapel and old kent. but here it breaks down, because the kind of properties you want are just measured by price (=points) and not even fully measured by quality. location and mix of properties both matter for investment purposes. Oh and properties can be developed, unlike a passive "point" value.

we have a minimum of 26 chances to influence the outcome of the first half of the bet - what we give away. 3 picks in 30, 23 minor round games. If we get to finals it gets better for us with each one, not just because of what we end up giving away but also because a decent performance maximizes the value of a few players who will likely get traded out at that point to get an earlier R1 pick in 2017. If we just miss finals its break even, depending on what has happened to the "stock value" of specific players we anticipate may be traded end 2017. If we do really poorly, its a double hit to us.

not really a bet, is it. a fair bloody whack of it is up to us. the "bet" analogy a lot of people use breaks down.

so we have 2 new picks to get very right, along with pick 9 of course.

if we're going "ready to play" with kids at these high stakes, they're probably still going to rotate in and out of the side. who drops out of the picture, who becomes "rotatable depth"? I reckon Neade will find 2017 career defining one way or another. 2017 we've got Palmer, Young, White, Toumpas, Amon, Sam Gray and probably Monfries assuming 1YR happens all out of contract, most of our talls: Trengove, Hombsch, Clurey, Frampton, Westhoff, Howard, plus Pittard who is mentioned as a possible go-home case. So none of the alleged great talls we could sign in 2017 are going to help particularly for 2018. We look like we got a good one in Austin, it's unusual for a KPP to contribute like that in year 1 let alone one who isn't an early pick. It's 2018 when we can reasonably expect to draw conclusions on Frampton and Howard - keepers or not - a year after they first come out of contract.

and I think all this (plus the astrological alignment with a few folks' job security) is why the seemingly desperate grab for mids and so help me dear Kraft God-of-all-melts-here-if-it-happens maybe even a "crafty half forward flanker with some tricks" this year for a quick bounce up the table.

because we won't be drafting talls in 2017, we'll be re-signing some and trading for some, and betting on our partly developed ones, while other clubs in a different place with their list re-stock KPP at the long-term draft end of the investment portfolio, after the Academy aligned are out of the pool.

finish your cheese melts now, pls. tell me if you think this is more plausible train of thought than my usual tl;dr

 

[5um0F1]

So what happens if we land a gun mid with pick 9 and Marshell or Battle with 19?.

Pick 30 with Graham if he is still there.

That would be interesting I woukd say.

Also note we have a few free agents next year with a stack of out of contract guys so its fair to say we can probably trade our way back into next years first round.

That's why I'm waiting to see who we get

 

[tangolikelama]

Mind = blown

 

[Doctor Feel]

I'd like a forward line with the talls being Dixon, Howard and Draftee X.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

So he goes 1. We're never going to be THAT bad.

At this stage he's a case for 1 - but who knows how next year will play out.

Yes, the academy teams have a few talls coming next year - GWS with Nathan Richards, Brisbane with Ballenden and Gold Coast with Crossley.

But there's still Sam Hayes, Callum Coleman-Jones, Oscar Clavarino, Hayden McLean...

These are all highly rated players - and not every team is going to be going tall at the pointy end. Even though some are tied to the academies, they'll be bid on high, which means other highly rated players will be pushed down as well. A good talls draft doesn't just mean hell yeah, we're getting a star tall - it also means we're more of a chance at a star mid as they're pushed down the order.

 

[Lagooner]

So basically we just went all in on this list being top 8 worthy, and if they come up short, like they have been doing the last few years, we've screwed the pooch.

Cool.

PS the Jasper compensation everyone is going on about, is to replace Jasper. Who replaces our potential 6-10 pick that we threw away? It makes no sense.

We're going to end up with a MASSIVE hole in our list.

No one is saying that the Jasper comp replaces our 1st rounder. There was just a question as to what the AFL will do wrt the position of the compensation i.e. tie it to our 1st round pick even though the Lions have it, or our 1st pick which is now in the 2nd round.

Thankfully it seems like it's the former.

 

[Revan11]

No one is saying that the Jasper comp replaces our 1st rounder. There was just a question as to what the AFL will do wrt the position of the compensation i.e. tie it to our 1st round pick even though the Lions have it, or our 1st pick which is now in the 2nd round.

Thankfully it seems like it's the former.

If he has as good a year as this year it would probably be an end of first round pick (like how a priority pick is inserted)

 

[Port 2004]

all you people who think that trading Pittard is a bad Idea, it cant be any worse that Ports useless drat pick trades this morning!! Unless they're hatching a plan for Rockcliif to come to Alberton!!

I've been looking all over Alberton and can't seem to find Port's ball's anywhere!! Harthorn seem to have balls!!
Be prepared for another bottom 8 finish in 2017!!

Bullshit.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

WTF Worst trade in years

 

[shewho]

Now I'm going to a meeting. When I get back the Brett Anderson had better have made good on his tweet that there is more to this deal or someone should tell my dog to hide for 24 hours until I calm down. Those f***ing gravy train riding useless f***ing goldfish may want to stay out of sight too. It's going to be an interesting meeting.

Well, I'm back from my meeting. Now where's that f***ing dog?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

So we get back the 2nd round pick fom GC that we gave them for Dixon last year.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-18/indicative-2016-afl-draft-order
ROUND TWO
No. Points Club
30. 629.... PORT Port Adelaide (received from Gold Coast as part of the Pearce Hanley trade; originally received from Port Adelaide as part of 2015 Charlie Dixon trade)

 

[mic59]

I'd just like to ask one question here, I've read a good bit here about compensation for Jasper, but is this based on anything concrete or has someone just assumed that as he will become a free agent he will suddenly decide to leave?

 

[Lagooner]

If he has as good a year as this year it would probably be an end of first round pick (like how a priority pick is inserted)

It also depends on the value of the contract being offered by the new club. If he gets a big enough deal we could potentially get the pick after "our" 2017 1st rounder just like Melbourne did for Frawley.

 

[CharlieKelly]

has everyone calmed down now?

ok, good