2016 Draft Prospects

[AmellyPies]

I played footy with him and he's extremely up himself

Jealous much?

 

[F_therest]

Jealous much?

Umadbro?

But seriously, no need to have a hissy fit just because it's about a daicos

 

[AmellyPies]

Umadbro?

But seriously, no need to have a hissy fit just because it's about a daicos

You're a Carlton supporter. lol.

 

[grundog49]

You're a Carlton supporter. lol.

Calm down

 

[Sin City]

Calling a prospect a flog yet not knowing him or even watching him play is petty.

Yeah I agree we shouldn't call players things like flog etc. I wasn't having a crack at you, just trying to get the thread back onto the players.

 

[AmellyPies]

Yeah I agree we shouldn't call players things like flog etc. I wasn't having a crack at you, just trying to get the thread back onto the players.

No, no I understand you weren't having a crack at me.

 

[AmellyPies]

Calm down

You're draft expert and now you're a emotion reader. lol

 

[dylan93]

Ben Caluzzi and Cameron Rayner surely to go early!

 

[pinot]

Draft will be good 30-35 deep

 

[Mego Red]

yeah its a much better system than before.

Carlton were able to trade Geelongs 1st next year for GWS' pick 8 which seems a good deal for us, affected by the academy system.
But still, its surprising that for 2 drafts in a row so much of the absolute high end talent will be going to academy clubs...

It's a terrible system.

Some clubs get players for cheap. Some clubs get top picks for cheap. The majority of clubs see their mid first round picks get pushed out later and lose value because of this inequality.

 

[coniglio_number1]

It's a terrible system.

Some clubs get players for cheap. Some clubs get top picks for cheap. The majority of clubs see their mid first round picks get pushed out later and lose value because of this inequality.

If your club scored a top 10 pick for a package of your later picks will you still feel sorry for the other clubs?

 

[Bradschi]

You're draft expert and now you're a emotion reader. lol

Mate relax. This is the only 2016 draft prospects thread at the moment so at least contribute to the thread instead of taking shots at people who are contributing. Everyone has their opinions on prospects and if you don't agree that's fine, no need to keep being difficult about it.

 

[L_W_P]

It's a terrible system.

Some clubs get players for cheap. Some clubs get top picks for cheap. The majority of clubs see their mid first round picks get pushed out later and lose value because of this inequality.

Not sure that's right...

1 - Weitering
2 - Schache
Mills
3 - Oliver
4 - Parish
5 - Francis
Hopper
6 - Ah Chee
7 - Weideman
8 - H.McKay
9 - Milera
10 - Curnow
Kennedy
Hipwood
11 - Rioli
Himmelberg
12 - Doedee

If you take out the Academy players then every other club still gets the same player they would have taken in a 'natural' draft. In fact later picks get moved up the order because Academy players are costing teams multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks. Eg. St Kilda started the night with pick 44 but got to select at pick 40 due to earlier picks being used on bidding.

Now you could argue that a player like Mills might have gone at pick 3 if he was available to Melbourne but the counter argument is that Mills might not even be playing at AFL level (or wouldn't be as good) without the Academy. Haven't we all been lamenting the lack of depth in the AFL? Aren't we better off under a system that sees multiple teams end up with top shelf, home grown talent?

 

[Giant Strides]

It's a terrible system.

Some clubs get players for cheap. Some clubs get top picks for cheap. The majority of clubs see their mid first round picks get pushed out later and lose value because of this inequality.

While there is truth in some of your specific complaints, I disagree with this on a holistic basis, because you are only looking at removing the output aspects (i.e. the draft picks) and not also the input aspects (i.e. the player availability/ranking) that comes with the academies. If you removed the academy discounts/bidding system, then it's quite clear that the northern clubs would not invest in the training programs that they do - what AFL clubs would pour millions of $ into developing junior players for other AFL clubs to take the benefits (the system being quite different between Qld/NSW and the traditional states in junior development). In this case, the 2015 draft would have no Mills, and Hopper, Kennedy, Keays and Hipwood are all less highly rated; Himmelberg and some of the lesser Brisbane players drafted probably aren't even on the radar. There are also second order effects: father/son selection stays the same as it was previously (so I'd opine that Dunkley probably does go to Swans, but for a second or even third round selection to match a Vic club bid), and future pick trading is off the table.

The cumulative effect of the above would change about a third of the 2015 trades, if there was no academy system. This is because 12 of the 37 trades involved future picks (or were dependent on an earlier future pick trade) and therefore would be unlikely to occur. (Some may have proceeded based on different trade basis, but that starts getting very murky to determine. Given the commentary on this trade period having much more trades executed than in the past, I think it likely that many simply would not have occurred.) A couple of examples:

• Treloar trade can't involve a future pick; no doubt GWS would hold out for more than a solitary first round pick so likely alternative would be Collingwood's picks 7 & 26 for Treloar. Subsequent impact is that Aish trade cannot proceed as executed; perhaps goes via PSD or perhaps another club picks him up. Additionally, GWS would not trade out their picks 7 & 8 for lower, they simply remain in those positions. Which means that GWS could still get Hopper and Kennedy, who would both likely be rated less than they were; or select other highly rated Victorian players there instead.
• The Gold Coast Suns pick 19 trade to Richmond for pick 31 and future 2016 round 2 pick wouldn't happen. Consequently, Richmond doesn't have pick 19 to trade for Yarren, so impacts that trade. Possible alternatives are a PSD move, a different club, or Richmond does trade its pick 12 for Yarren plus Carlton's pick 20 or 21 (depending on other trade changes) in return.
• Gold Coast's trade of its picks 3, 10 & 43 for Melbourne's 6, 29 and future first round pick is very unlikely to happen: without that future pick there's not enough value for GCS; so it remains at pick 3 and Melbourne doesn't have 2 picks in the top 10 in 2015.

So, yes, clubs like Carlton and Melbourne under the bidding system have gained some benefit - their 'top picks for cheap', but who could deny that this is to the benefit of developing those lowly clubs, which should benefit the competition as a whole. (They make the trades because they want to accelerate their rebuild. In any system they would do what they could, it's just that the academy bidding system provides more scope.) Then, in regards the northern clubs getting 'top picks for cheap', the reality is that the players they have developed would in the alternative universe either be playing a different code (Heeney, Mills) or just not as good, so other top picks would be taken in their stead. (The caveat I acknowledge here is the oft-cited case of Swans getting essentially the second and third ranked players in successive drafts. Changing the system would specifically stop that, but conversely, it would cause those two players to be lost to AFL.)

Doing a quick 'what if' analysis on the 2015 draft, Adelaide would keep its picks at 9 and 13 rather than 11 & 17. In this case, Adelaide's first selection would have one additional player available for its selection (I'd forecast it to be Ah Chee, based on GCS/Mel pick swap changing selections). So, yes, this comes about because GWS traded out of a top ten spot and got brought back in to match a bid. Regarding Adelaide's second selection, analysis of the second order impact of changing the academy system means that the 4 position loss is only worth the one extra selection available that impacted its first pick (this is because Kennedy could have already been taken by GWS's second selection or is rated vastly lower, and Hipwood and Himmelberg simply would not have been rated as highly to have been bid on where they were at picks 14 & 16). So, you significantly overstate the 'loss in value' of the non-academy clubs' mid first round picks.

Bottom line is that the academies and the bidding system do change what happens in the draft, no denying that, but in my view you overstate the impact because you are taking a very insular assessment of the first and second order impacts. Not that I think my comments will change your view.

[Edit. Started writing my post before L_W_P posted his great analysis, but took too long analysing the impact of removing future trades!]

 

[Giant Strides]

And coming back to the thread topic ...

Not all 'top' draft prospects, but very interested to see how the GWS Academy kids go in 2016 and subsequently where they land in the draft. I recognise that this topic polarises opinion on Bigfooty, but taking a broad view of improving the AFL and talent base holistically, parochial interest in academy talent serves a greater purpose.

Zachary Sproule is a tall forward, in the mould of Nick Riewoldt, who leads up to the ball well.

Kobe Mutch is a smooth moving outside midfielder with silky skills on both sides of his body who plays like GWS wingman Lachie Whitfield.

Key defender Harrison Macreadie has been compared to Geelong’s Andrew Mackie, and currently is considered a possible top-20 or even top-10 draft prospect.

Will Setterfield is a tall midfielder who has the ability to play as both an inside and outside player and combines good endurances with the ability to win the contested football too.

Connor Owen-Auburn is another, though lesser, name on the academy list, playing for Pennant Hills, NSW/ACT RAMS and 7 GWS NEAFL games in 2015.

 

[M Malice]

great analysis LWP and Giant Strides, deserve more than a lowly like.

 

[Zach Package]

After seeing a fair few chargers games this year I expect Pat Kerr, Sam McLarty and Dion Johnstone to get drafted next year

 

[mediumsizered]

After seeing a fair few chargers games this year I expect Pat Kerr, Sam McLarty and Dion Johnstone to get drafted next year

Next year would be a good time for the AFL to introduce a grandfather/grandson rule. I like what I have seen of Kerr & he is already a good size.

 

[Zach Package]

Next year would be a good time for the AFL to introduce a grandfather/grandson rule. I like what I have seen of Kerr & he is already a good size.

Perfect size, still genuine key position size but not so tall as to be stuffed around in the ruck for part of the time

 

[RUNVS]

And coming back to the thread topic ...

Not all 'top' draft prospects, but very interested to see how the GWS Academy kids go in 2016 and subsequently where they land in the draft. I recognise that this topic polarises opinion on Bigfooty, but taking a broad view of improving the AFL and talent base holistically, parochial interest in academy talent serves a greater purpose.

Zachary Sproule is a tall forward, in the mould of Nick Riewoldt, who leads up to the ball well.

Kobe Mutch is a smooth moving outside midfielder with silky skills on both sides of his body who plays like GWS wingman Lachie Whitfield.

Key defender Harrison Macreadie has been compared to Geelong’s Andrew Mackie, and currently is considered a possible top-20 or even top-10 draft prospect.

Will Setterfield is a tall midfielder who has the ability to play as both an inside and outside player and combines good endurances with the ability to win the contested football too.

Connor Owen-Auburn is another, though lesser, name on the academy list, playing for Pennant Hills, NSW/ACT RAMS and 7 GWS NEAFL games in 2015.

GWS are going to be crazy good in 2 years time. Your NEAFL side is so much better than the Swans NEAFL side it is not even funny, showing the depth GWS already has at their disposal.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

2015 was low on midfield talent at the top and high pn KPP, how is 2016 shaping?

 

[Giant Strides]

GWS are going to be crazy good in 2 years time. Your NEAFL side is so much better than the Swans NEAFL side it is not even funny, showing the depth GWS already has at their disposal.

Remember that GWS has been running a larger squad size for the past few years since starting, which has given advantage in the NEAFL comp (along with the initial high draft picks). With the large cleanout during the 2015 trade period, GWS has reduced to a standard squad size of 44 (difference is that GWS still has 42 vice 38 on the main list). Admittedly, (as seemingly everyone on Bigfooty likes to point out) GWS is advantaged by the higher draft picks that run through the squad, but the numbers will reduce that advantage a little.

I like the fact, though, that GWS is trying to build up the number of NSW-born players, and seemingly will continue to do so. Won't be everyone, as can't necessarily guarantee the right players/quality, but hopefully GWS continues to build its depth players from NSW/Academy. I reckon that we will start seeing more Sydney and Canberra academy players in contention over the next 4-5 years. My son played AFL in Hawkesbury in 2013-14 and in Canberra in 2015, and there are some talented young players being nurtured in GWS's talent squads. I realise that only a tiny fraction of these will make it to draft contention, and even less onto a list, but it's a start.

 

[adammania9]

Mods need to sticky this thread.

 

[RUNVS]

Remember that GWS has been running a larger squad size for the past few years since starting, which has given advantage in the NEAFL comp (along with the initial high draft picks). With the large cleanout during the 2015 trade period, GWS has reduced to a standard squad size of 44 (difference is that GWS still has 42 vice 38 on the main list). Admittedly, (as seemingly everyone on Bigfooty likes to point out) GWS is advantaged by the higher draft picks that run through the squad, but the numbers will reduce that advantage a little.

I like the fact, though, that GWS is trying to build up the number of NSW-born players, and seemingly will continue to do so. Won't be everyone, as can't necessarily guarantee the right players/quality, but hopefully GWS continues to build its depth players from NSW/Academy. I reckon that we will start seeing more Sydney and Canberra academy players in contention over the next 4-5 years. My son played AFL in Hawkesbury in 2013-14 and in Canberra in 2015, and there are some talented young players being nurtured in GWS's talent squads. I realise that only a tiny fraction of these will make it to draft contention, and even less onto a list, but it's a start.

Oh crap. Does that mean I am in GWS's zone. Well I am 27 so I suspect my chances of making an AFL list are quite low at this point anyway

 

[Giant Strides]

Oh crap. Does that mean I am in GWS's zone. Well I am 27 so I suspect my chances of making an AFL list are quite low at this point anyway

Only thing to do is jump ship and start supporting the kids running around in orange and grey.