Hot Topic 2016 DRAFT
- Thread starter HARKER
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- Apr 20, 2006
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I'm not a fan of trading next years first rounder but if we do surely we have to value it as a number 1 pick. We were only a couple of injuries away from being the worst side this season and if we want to actually play the kids next year there is every chance we could go backwards.
Nothing about it is impatient. It's intelligent age profile managing. It is impossible to build a list by hitting a first round pick every year. Just doesnt happen. You will inevitably pick a bust and then you have a big gaping whole in your age profile, which, is already spread thin by investing in a high pick on a yearly basis instead of grouping them together.
Look at Hawthorn with Buddy and Rouhead in one draft then Lewis the next, Collingwood with Pendlebury and Thomas, WBD with Stringer and Macrae then Bontempelli the next. Champion teams are build by nailing a couple of drafts in succession and having a core group of kids develop together. They eventually peak together as well, which is what makes it a champion side.
Whilst this year is an "even" draft, there are clear tiers. The top #7 or so is a fairly distinctive tier. McLuggage, Brodie, McGrath, SPS, Bowes, Ainsworth, Setterfield, Scrimshaw. The next four or five are also pretty distinct with English, Perryman, Venables, Taranto and Marshall. Then it gets very even over the next twenty or so.
Whilst this is a draft you can nab quality at a later pick, it's also a draft with what is looking like some real elite midfielders. If we could get two picks inside that top #7.. we're golden.
As for next years draft.. its impossible to predict a draft a year out imo.
I think he has the biggest scope for improvement. He hasn't shown the contested ball winning ability yet, but then neither had Fyfe, Mundy, or Bontempelli or plenty of other midfielders who didnt play in the guts at TAC and went on to be some of the greats of the comp.
He appears to have clean hands, a beautiful kick and a big tall body that point to him being a prototype modern midfielder.
SPP plays for the Royals i think, and they played Claremont in the reserves grannie I believe.
I disagree, Maclure always seems to be off the mark, is out of touch with footy
IMO this whole debate comes down to
- assessment of this year's talent;
- our prospects of climbing the ladder next year; and
- our capacity to trade back into the first round.
I'm not optimistic about any of these factors, therefore both the risk and degree of failure associated with trading our future first are unacceptable.
FWIW I'm betting we end up with Scrimshaw anyway after nobody bids on Bowes.
Colts but there were a few draft contenders playing in the game, including Petrevski-Seton for the opposition.
- assessment of this year's talent; Top #7 is quality I think, Knightmare (only one source i know, but I have similar feelings) has stated that this years top 3 midfielders are better than any of last year, and I think the top #7 from this year lines up really well with previous draft years
- our prospects of climbing the ladder next year; this is the big one, I think two picks inside the top #7 will definitely help us move up the ladder as I think players like Brodie, McGrath, Ainsworth or SPS could play from Round 1, also development form our other younger players, the Tom Mitchell trade is the big one, if we cans wing Touhy for Mitchell, we'll guarentee to move up the ladder, if we can't bring Mitchell over, or ladder improvement will come down to our list staying healthy, and
- our capacity to trade back into the first round; easily done, 2018 first should be trade for 2017 picks, how high we can trade back in is the concern, getting a pick in the top #8 may be harder, but honestly, I think after taking #4 picks inside the top 20 in 2015 and another 3 inside the top #20 odd in 2016, the bulk of the work is already done.
thylacine60
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Huh? All this talk about flippantly trading a future pick for a current pick indicates that our fanbase is still just as impatient & myopic as the old days (fortunately the club seem to be more forward-thinking). The mere fact your case for trading the 2017 1st is partially based on us eventually getting back into the 2017 1st by trading our 2018 1st shows the big flaw. You can't afford to sell the farm in any given year.
I'm sorry, whilst we have added some young talent recently & Bolton absolutely has us on the right path, our list is no good. We have no time urgency compelling us to sacrifice future draft picks in exchange for immediate return. If anything, we are so far from "win now" mode that we should be looking at the opposite - that is, to trade out current picks for some future sweeteners. We have so many holes on our list & such a dearth of talent that our #1 and only focus should be to accumulate the maximum amount of young talent as possible.
By trading future picks for current picks, we are paying a price to move that opportunity forward 1 year - you receive a discounted return on that future pick because you are insisting on cashing it in now rather than next year. Add in hyperbolic discounting where we have a natural tendency to undervalue future assets versus present assets, and it's a very ugly combo.
Not saying we should never do it - never say never, you should always be prepared to inexplicably and unashamedly take advantage of a lopsided trade - but the general attitude is less about that sort of opportunism and more about greedily trying to stockpile picks in this draft to speed up our improvement. Ain't gonna happen that way unfortunately, our list isn't good enough to add a few picks here and there. We've got a long road ahead and we need to embrace it, there are no short cuts.
To say we're guaranteed to move up the ladder is madness (even if we add some talent). I'm very optimistic, but we have one of the shallowest lists in the AFL. The teams around us are younger, more talented and clearly on an upward trajectory - because they've been patiently pursuing their rebuild longer than us. Looking forward to SOS & co doing the right thing, aggressively stockpiling and maximising opportunities to bring in talented youth, and not trying to cut any corners.
Turns out he didn't play in the reserves grand final for East Perth..
http://www.wafl.com.au/games/view/10899
But he did play in the Colts preliminary final and grand final
Prelim 24 POWELL-PEPPER, S D19 K16 H3 M4 T1 HO2 I506 G0 B2
Grannie 24 POWELL-PEPPER, S D22 K13 H9 M2 T7 HO0 I504 G4 B1
Very good performances, I really want him with our pick #23 if we keep it.
I outlined the reasons for trading a future pick, you didn't address them.
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Dramoth
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The trading of our 2017 and 2018 draft picks this year and next would be dependent on a couple of options. What we rate next years collection of players like... and how the rest of the league rates Ben Silvagni for the 2018 draft.
We would also have to take into consideration this year, what the academy players for the relevant teams are going to be like next year. If there is going to be a strong crop of academy players next year for GC or GWS, then potentially trading our first round pick for 1-2 first round picks this year would be a solid bit of business.
This could be especially valuable if Ben Silvagni is rated a top 10 prospect for 2018. A team like Essendon would definitely bid on him and if we jump above Essendon on the ladder in 2018, then we could be forced to use our first round pick on Ben.
We would be better off planning ahead and saying that by trading our 2017 first round pick for, arguments sake, pick 6 (Prestia pick) and a 2016 or 2017 second round pick from GC17. This would allow us to address our midfield issues with picks 5 and 6 in this years draft, which could be Brodie and Scrimshaw.
If we did the same next year with our 2018 first round pick, targetting a mid top 10 first round pick and a future 2018 second round pick, we would be covering the possibility that Ben goes top 10 and we wouldn't be wasting a mid-late top 10 pick in 2018 on him if some team decides they are going to bid on him with a top 5 pick.
It's not about being patient... it's about long term planning.
We would also have to take into consideration this year, what the academy players for the relevant teams are going to be like next year. If there is going to be a strong crop of academy players next year for GC or GWS, then potentially trading our first round pick for 1-2 first round picks this year would be a solid bit of business.
This could be especially valuable if Ben Silvagni is rated a top 10 prospect for 2018. A team like Essendon would definitely bid on him and if we jump above Essendon on the ladder in 2018, then we could be forced to use our first round pick on Ben.
We would be better off planning ahead and saying that by trading our 2017 first round pick for, arguments sake, pick 6 (Prestia pick) and a 2016 or 2017 second round pick from GC17. This would allow us to address our midfield issues with picks 5 and 6 in this years draft, which could be Brodie and Scrimshaw.
If we did the same next year with our 2018 first round pick, targetting a mid top 10 first round pick and a future 2018 second round pick, we would be covering the possibility that Ben goes top 10 and we wouldn't be wasting a mid-late top 10 pick in 2018 on him if some team decides they are going to bid on him with a top 5 pick.
It's not about being patient... it's about long term planning.
Are you confusing Sam Maclure with Mark Maclure ??
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The big bloke who is on the footy broadcast.. which one's he?
thylacine60
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mark - sellers
The Old Dark Navy's
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Oh FBI. I'm afraid your supporterdom has been reduced to probationary status.
I'm 24 years old. My only experience with Maclure is him bad mouthing the club on AFL broadcasts, don't like the bloke.
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He only happens to be a triple Premiership player, played just under 250 games and also a former Captain of the Club FBI.
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Personally I have respect for what he helped the club accomplish, but in his media role he fires from the hip about things far too much.
What is the point of appearing on national TV to analyse things if you don't offer in-depth analysis most of the time? He's not the only one with this problem, but past accolades only take people so far.
And added to that he was the spiritual and off field leader of our greatest ever team. That 79 to 82 team.
- Dec 22, 2006
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Agree seems to get all his leads from Twitter or Bigfooty.
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In which he played in 3 Premierships.
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