2016 trade hypotheticals

jakefooty23

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The point with GWS & the academy bidding system is that the argument doesn't need to get stuck on worth being purely in terms of a top whatever pick. I would expect that GWS will take less than first round points equivalence in later picks, and that pick upgrades/downgrades and possibly future picks that are naturally speculative will come into play.

For example, GWS could trade up and Freo down within the first round plus a later round pick to get second or early third round value for McCarthy and both teams could claim a win in negotiations.
What' do you think is a fair trade involving McCarthy?
 

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What' do you think is a fair trade involving McCarthy?
I think that there's a few different options, and some will depend on trades early in the week. But overall, I see the value being accepted in the end as somewhere in the second round - less than GWS believe he's worth but more than Freo ideally want to pay.

For example, if Freo trade Mayne or get a second round compo pick, that could do it. A future second round pick could do it. Other options could be presented if GWS trade players to say Richmond or Carlton and trade up their Collingwood pick (nominally #7) and then trade that to Freo for #3 and a third rounder or a future second rounder. (In that scenario, Freo don't go far backwards staying in the first round and points value equates to second round.)
 

grouse mate

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I think that there's some truth in what you say about the ruck situation. Mummy is great for us, and has signed on for another 2 years. Lobb complements him very well - good contested mark and solid relief ruck. Tom Downie has been planned to be Mummy's replacement in another couple of years, with Matty Flynn next in development 4-5 years behind. I saw Dawson Simpson as the short term cover for a big-bodied aggressive ruckman in case Mummy goes down (as in 2015). Question is, how does GWS see both Downie's and Simpson's progress and report card against their expectations? The problem is GWS wants a ruckman who can/will happily sit in NEAFL, and then if Mummy's injured, come out and be his equal in first grade. Pretty impossible task, and more so in Sydney. I don't rate Witts particularly highly, and obviously last year both GWS and Witts weren't open to his trade to GWS as part of the Treloar deal. I guess this year, Witts might realise that he's less attractive than he thought. A lot of the linkage to GWS is that he's from Sydney. So, I agree that if GWS don't see Simpson as able to do the backup role as envisaged, and Downie not ready to assume #1 ruck mantle, they could despatch Simpson and get another ruck. I just don't see it being Witts. To take him, they'd also be stating that Downie was not developing well enough. In which case, both would go and Witts brought in to be Mummy's backup for the next 2 years, then assume the #1 ruck mantle.
Will Minson should be somebody we should look at if we feel Downie and Simpson wont cut it.
 

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I think that there's a few different options, and some will depend on trades early in the week. But overall, I see the value being accepted in the end as somewhere in the second round - less than GWS believe he's worth but more than Freo ideally want to pay.

For example, if Freo trade Mayne or get a second round compo pick, that could do it. A future second round pick could do it. Other options could be presented if GWS trade players to say Richmond or Carlton and trade up their Collingwood pick (nominally #7) and then trade that to Freo for #3 and a third rounder or a future second rounder. (In that scenario, Freo don't go far backwards staying in the first round and points value equates to second round.)
What you're saying sounds reasonable ( :thumbsu: ) but this is a year where a pick 3 in the draft will get a player as good as pick 1. I just can't see us downgrading pick 3 unless we get a grandfather offer. McCarthy wouldn't be worth the risk of us missing someone like SPS.
 

adammania9

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Dockers give: Pick 3, 3rd round pick 2017
Giants give: Pick 8 (Collingwood), Pick 17 (Giants), McCarthy

Let's value the Dockers' 2017 3rd at Pick 45 (10th on the ladder I think), that values McCarthy at a simple pick 68 however I think both clubs get good wins.

The Giants get to release McCarthy off the cap, get some points for 2017 and they also get Pick 3, guaranteed to be an open selection at this point and would have their choice of an open selection, rather than the highly likely chance of having an academy gun being bid of prior to their first pick (8).

Dockers get a tall forward in McCarthy, downgrade from 3 to 8 based on the risk that either or both of Marshall and English are available, and they get a later pick in the first round to get themselves a tall defender or medium forward or something of need.

Win/win.
 

raffrox

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No but you would ask for a between 10 and say 17 more then likely.
Do you genuinely believe that a team (any team) would give a pick between pick 10 and 17 for McCarthy now?

If so, is there anyone else on this board that would agree with their team giving up a pick between 10 and 17 for McCarthy? Anybody?
 

Stifler's mom

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Freo are holding the cards here.
They can walk him into the PSD and no way bombers of Lions gamble on him.

GWS will get an ordinary pick or nothing IMO.
 

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jason pm

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Suns need the picks for Jack Bowes. Won't happen. Rockliff isn't worth that much as well. A first sure. He's not Ablett!
maybe, picks 20 &27 are actually worth about 300 more points than pick 8, so they are getting an AA and a B&F winner for around pick 4-5 to go with the increase in points.
 

Bulldog15

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Not a fan of overseas teams.....
Do you genuinely believe that a team (any team) would give a pick between pick 10 and 17 for McCarthy now?

If so, is there anyone else on this board that would agree with their team giving up a pick between 10 and 17 for McCarthy? Anybody?
Yes the Lions your team, Carlton, Collingwood and the bombers would for starters.
 

Kristof

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Dockers give: Pick 3, 3rd round pick 2017
Giants give: Pick 8 (Collingwood), Pick 17 (Giants), McCarthy

Let's value the Dockers' 2017 3rd at Pick 45 (10th on the ladder I think), that values McCarthy at a simple pick 68 however I think both clubs get good wins.

The Giants get to release McCarthy off the cap, get some points for 2017 and they also get Pick 3, guaranteed to be an open selection at this point and would have their choice of an open selection, rather than the highly likely chance of having an academy gun being bid of prior to their first pick (8).

Dockers get a tall forward in McCarthy, downgrade from 3 to 8 based on the risk that either or both of Marshall and English are available, and they get a later pick in the first round to get themselves a tall defender or medium forward or something of need.

Win/win.
Yuck.

Horrendous.

You were onto something with 3 for McCarthy and 8, and you had to ruin it with that second first round pick.

GWS might as well keep him for another year, just because they can.
 

grouse mate

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Dockers give: Pick 3, 3rd round pick 2017
Giants give: Pick 8 (Collingwood), Pick 17 (Giants), McCarthy

Let's value the Dockers' 2017 3rd at Pick 45 (10th on the ladder I think), that values McCarthy at a simple pick 68 however I think both clubs get good wins.

The Giants get to release McCarthy off the cap, get some points for 2017 and they also get Pick 3, guaranteed to be an open selection at this point and would have their choice of an open selection, rather than the highly likely chance of having an academy gun being bid of prior to their first pick (8).

Dockers get a tall forward in McCarthy, downgrade from 3 to 8 based on the risk that either or both of Marshall and English are available, and they get a later pick in the first round to get themselves a tall defender or medium forward or something of need.

Win/win.
The top 3 picks in this draft are all mids. Our list is stacked with mids, first rounders battling to get regular games. We have 3 mids in this years academy crop all rated top 25. I dont see the win, I see foolish list management.
 

MightyDons4

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The top 3 picks in this draft are all mids. Our list is stacked with mids, first rounders battling to get regular games. We have 3 mids in this years academy crop all rated top 25. I dont see the win, I see foolish list management.
SPS and Ainsworth would both be very welcome additions into your forward line.
 

adammania9

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The top 3 picks in this draft are all mids. Our list is stacked with mids, first rounders battling to get regular games. We have 3 mids in this years academy crop all rated top 25. I dont see the win, I see foolish list management.
Tim English could well be a top 5 talent by November and I reckon he'd be an incredible pick-up as a long-term replacement for Mumford and how Simpson and Downie aren't exactly the greatest in the league.
 

MightyDons4

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Ahead of who?

Clubs fairly open about wanting to get a defensive small fwd. It wont be an 18yo.
Stevie j hasn't got much time left, Reid is very ordinary and Pickett isn't much chop. SPS applies excellent pressure and hits the scoreboard, would be the ideal player for GWS.
 

grouse mate

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Tim English could well be a top 5 talent by November and I reckon he'd be an incredible pick-up as a long-term replacement for Mumford and how Simpson and Downie aren't exactly the greatest in the league.
We took Flynn last year who is progressing fine. Next years academy has Nathan Richards who is a highly rated ruck/fwd.
 
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