2016 trade hypotheticals

[YEMOC NAYR]

Callum twomey phantom guide doesn't have scheer in the top 20 at the moment. That could change.. Heaps of things could happen between now and draft night
Twomey is generally on the money when it comes to draft night.
Bowes is at 5 which is where we will end up.
If we trade 3-4-5 and 9 for 1 and pickup someone else other than Bowes how do we afford Bowes and scheer?

If we bid with 1, youd have to use pick 3 on bowes then your pick 9 would be pick 11. Could be later if you go up ladder more.
Also, i am fairly sure you guys have 4 second rounders. Plus you will get picks for omera and prestia if they leave I assume

 

[Scotty_222]

If we bid with 1, youd have to use pick 3 on bowes then your pick 9 would be pick 11. Could be later if you go up ladder more.
Also, i am fairly sure you guys have 4 second rounders. Plus you will get picks for omera and prestia if they leave I assume

I just don't think that will happen

This was posted from Knightmare:

↑
Given the points system Gold Coast WOULD NOT trade picks 4 and 8 for pick 1.

Pick 1 = 3,000
Pick 4 = 2,034
Pick 8 = 1,551

That is a fairly major loss of points.

Further to this, with the evenness of the first round. At picks 4/8 you have an pretty close to an even chance to picking someone who is as good or better than the first overall selection.

Then looking at it more deeply from a Gold Coast perspective. Bowes is no longer the favourite to go pick one overall. So there is no real value to having pick one overall specifically for Gold Coast anymore as many may have speculated a month or two ago.

 

[Milanista28]

What would Nathan Hrovat cost at the trade table?

4th round onward for me.

 

[Milanista28]

I just don't think that will happen

This was posted from Knightmare:

↑
Given the points system Gold Coast WOULD NOT trade picks 4 and 8 for pick 1.

Pick 1 = 3,000
Pick 4 = 2,034
Pick 8 = 1,551

That is a fairly major loss of points.

Further to this, with the evenness of the first round. At picks 4/8 you have an pretty close to an even chance to picking someone who is as good or better than the first overall selection.

Then looking at it more deeply from a Gold Coast perspective. Bowes is no longer the favourite to go pick one overall. So there is no real value to having pick one overall specifically for Gold Coast anymore as many may have speculated a month or two ago.

What would you rather? McCluggage/Brodie/SPS and Bowes or Bowes and Venables/McGrath/Simpkin

 

[YEMOC NAYR]

I just don't think that will happen

This was posted from Knightmare:

↑
Given the points system Gold Coast WOULD NOT trade picks 4 and 8 for pick 1.

Pick 1 = 3,000
Pick 4 = 2,034
Pick 8 = 1,551

That is a fairly major loss of points.

Further to this, with the evenness of the first round. At picks 4/8 you have an pretty close to an even chance to picking someone who is as good or better than the first overall selection.

Then looking at it more deeply from a Gold Coast perspective. Bowes is no longer the favourite to go pick one overall. So there is no real value to having pick one overall specifically for Gold Coast anymore as many may have speculated a month or two ago.

It's a loss of points for sure. But if you have 4 and 8, and ess/bris did theoretically bid at pick 1 you would be forced to use 4, and your pick 8 would go further back in the draft. You'd likely get sheer for a second rounder.

So you're left in this situation

Trade 4&8 for 1 and 37
Take any player you like with pick 1. Let's say SPS.
Then bowes gets bid on, and instead of losing points from your other first rounder, you can use up a few of the seconds you have.
So you end up with SPS, Bowes, and 1 second left after you use another to bid on sheer.

If a trade isn't done-
Bowes could be bid on with pick 1, he's obviously too good to let go, so GCS will 100% match the bid. Your pick 4 then goes, and you use some of pick 8 bringing it back to pick 12.
So you end up with Bowes, pick 12, and a couple of second rounders.

While it is a substaintial loss of points, it doesn't matter. The point of the trade would be GCS getting access to a player before anyone can bid on bowes. The tradeoff is pick 1 v a couple of second round picks. I'm sure everyone would take pick 1.

This could, and most likely would be rendered mute if Prestia/O'Meara leave.

 

[harro92]

Longer cost us 25 and 41 (with 48 coming back) three years ago, now you suggest we part with him for ~43 and ~25? Pass.

Yeah 3 years ago and is a back up ruckman, even pierce got a game over him he's losing value

 

[eth-dog]

Yeah 3 years ago and is a back up ruckman, even pierce got a game over him he's losing value

Might have to do with the fact that Longer's injured.

 

[Zach Package]

I just don't think that will happen

This was posted from Knightmare:
Given the points system Gold Coast WOULD NOT trade picks 4 and 8 for pick 1.

Pick 1 = 3,000
Pick 4 = 2,034
Pick 8 = 1,551

That is a fairly major loss of points.

It's a loss of point sure, but the point tally doesn't factor in the fact that pick 1 is guaranteed to be live, and isn't just a point dump to make up the numbers.

From Gold Coast's perspective not making the deal exposes them to an element of russian roulette in regards to where bids come, Could end up with 2, 3 or 4 selections in the first round. Lots of moving parts.

If they do it things become much more linear. 1 is 1, that's set in stone, and then from there things become a bit more straight forward, the clutch of picks between 20 and 30 pay for Bowes and Scheer no matter where bidding occurs and then any leftovers get repaid as a bonus 3rd round selection or something like that.

It's genuinely a fantastic opportunity for the suns, they could basically trade a bunch of magic beans they gathered last year for pick 1.

 

[adammania9]

Bombers fans trying to use GCS as a quick route to two top picks

 

[Yoda_]

Bombers fans trying to use GCS as a quick route to two top picks

When the media have suggested it is a good, worthwhile trade, its hard to ignore it.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Bombers fans trying to use GCS as a quick route to two top picks

It's actually a pretty good idea, we got the inspiration from GWS using you guys as a quick route to two top picks.

 

[Mego Red]

If Essendon want two top ten picks, they have to offer up at least their first and second pick.

 

[Ants]

Bombers fans trying to use GCS as a quick route to two top picks

If its win-win, why wouldn't we?

 

[YEMOC NAYR]

It's actually a pretty good idea, we got the inspiration from GWS using you guys as a quick route to two top picks.

apply water to burn area...

Bombers fans trying to use GCS as a quick route to two top picks

it's not like offering up pick 1 is being unreasonable, too. It's a win win.. it's made waves on more than just bigfooty boards

 

[Ants]

It's mostly your win

Do you want to explain why that's the case? They've been enough posts by EFC fans saying why it works for both clubs.

 

[Colonial]

Do you want to explain why that's the case? They've been enough posts by EFC fans saying why it works for both clubs.

What do suns fans think?

 

[YEMOC NAYR]

That's a pretty good explanation.

The Suns do pretty well, but the Bombers get away with way too much. The Suns would be very one-sided to let a rival club (who could definitely peak alongside each other in a few years) strengthen themselves like that. Throw in your 2nd rounder and you have a pretty even deal.

How is what he said an explanation? He just asked you to explain because there has been about 10 posts in the last page with people explaining why it works!

Oh please... ess don't give up enough.. we're theoretically giving up pick 1! Not long ago, saints declined a 2 top 10 trade offer from the giants didn't they?

 

[YEMOC NAYR]

The amount of times I've read that there is no standout number 1 draftee this year (quite often by posters from your board) is pretty extreme. Surely that applies to this? I'd argue that the players that are taken at picks four and eight are much, much more important to a rebuilding team like the Suns than a SPS/Brodie type.

It doesn't matter if their is no standout.. the whole point of the trade is to benefit both clubs. Ess get 2 selections rather than 1 and GCS get to have a selection before they are forced to match a bid on bowes! If their was a standout the trade offer wouldn't be on the table..

Why limit yourself to Bowes, sheer and 2 second rounders when you can have Bowes, sheer, pick 1 and 0 second rounders??? is 2 seconds better than pick 1?

 

[markm106]

Essendon apparently offering Josh Green 400k a year. What would he be worth in a trade? Showed some promise a couple years back. Has he been injured this year. Only played 6 games for 6 goals

 

[Ants]

The amount of times I've read that there is no standout number 1 draftee this year (quite often by posters from your board) is pretty extreme. Surely that applies to this? I'd argue that the players that are taken at picks four and eight are much, much more important to a rebuilding team like the Suns than a SPS/Brodie type.

It doesn't apply to anyone who is going to lose those top 10 picks on academy players.

If Bowes was lower rated, or if Brisbane wasn't going to finish at best 2nd last, then you would have a point. But there is no way Brisbane isn't going to bid on a Queensland player. Which means GCS won't have the opportunity to use those picks in the even draft as they'll have been used to pay for Bowes. Which negates the value in them.

You seem to be saying "you both win, but EFC win by more. So chuck in your pick #19 so you don't win anymore and only GCS win".

 

[YEMOC NAYR]

Going in with no second rounders for a club like the Suns is a no-no. I see where you're getting at but the Suns are still short-changed I reckon. 2nd rounder needs to come from you, 3rd at absolute worst considering your ladder position.

Oh yeah, I think if the deal was done it would involve a 2nd or 3rd. Obviously suns would push for a second.

Fwiw, I think the deal would be better if we involved a suns player. But obviously that involves a suns player wanting to come to ess.

 

[MightyDons4]

Essendon apparently offering Josh Green 400k a year. What would he be worth in a trade? Showed some promise a couple years back. Has he been injured this year. Only played 6 games for 6 goals

My ideal scenario would be that Brisbane take Dempsey via FA (has been surprisingly decent this year, and Brisbane have very poor small defenders), which generates band 5 compo (3rd round). We then trade the compo pick back to Brisbane for Green, could even add a sweetener if necessary.

I just hope the PSD talk is rubbish, it's an ugly path that I wouldn't like to go down.

 

[TheBeardAmigos]

Eagles should look at Cam McCarthy seriously. Give up your next couple of 2nd rounders or so and that could be the best forward line in the league, and could for sure prolong their journey to a flag.

HF: Mark LeCras, Jack Darling, Jamie Cripps
F: Josh Hill, Josh Kennedy, Cam McCarthy

Take the best available mid with your first, and get a guy like McCarthy and they're flying again.

still need to win away from home......

 

[Milanista28]

400k for green? Overs???

 

[markm106]

400k for green? Overs???

I would have thought so.