AFL 2017 - AFL Round 7

[Aussie_boy]

Pretty tough round for finding value. I think Essendon's line is a good bet along with Dogs and Dees both H2H. Plenty of games that I consider untouchable.

 

[free at last]

Anyone tempted U200.5 Crows v North at Blundstone Arena.Traditionally not a high scoring venue.There is a hint of wet weather Saturday for Hobart.However the Crows are flying and could really destroy North in any conditions.

I'm going to take the unders now.
Total will drop for sure....It'll probably be quite windy in Hobart on Saturday with an approaching cold front.It wouldn't surprise me if Brad Scott tries to somehow turn the game in to a scrap too.

 

[Clarke Healy]

Guys Sydney lost to Carlton... CARLTON.

Unless their form improves they will lose to Brisbane.

The only question mark around this game is if they get their shit together and improve or not. Because Carlton are the worst side in the competition so if you lose to them you lose to anyone.

This is a pretty naive statement, firstly sydney played carlton at Carlton's preferred venue, they actually had one more scoring shot than carlton so although they did lose after accounting for away disadvantage and accuracy the swans come out slightly ahead. I think it is pretty clear Brisbane are the worst side in the competition at the moment, I could also form a strong argument that hawthorn are also below the blues, both brisbane and the hawks certainly have a lost worse scoring shot differential to the blues. So I think to say Carlton is the worst side in the competition therefor brisbane will beat sydney is plain dumb considering brisbane have the clearest stake to holding the title of worst side in the competition.
What is clear and correct is sydney are not 1.12 or -40.5 shots but they should be winning on form.

 

[targett]

I'm going to take the unders now.
Total will drop for sure....It'll probably be quite windy in Hobart on Saturday with an approaching cold front.It wouldn't surprise me if Brad Scott tries to somehow turn the game in to a scrap too.

Betting Club U202.5 $1.90

 

[Spads]

Which of the those 3 corporate betting companies have you found to be the most lenient?

It would be as pointless as comparing tragedy in third world countries. It's all horrific.

If you really want an answer, I guess 365 took the longest to limit ... but then limited the most.

 

[Keystone agony]

I reckon eagles are a big chance of winning or causing the upset but Port havnt really done anything wtong. They actually pushes the crows for a fair bit and they are an extremely good side once they get confidence up. Boak should also be back. The eagles have only really had 2 losses and both at the MCG doom. Vs STkilda was another poor game but the saints were great that game.

I wonder if the pies are vunerable after a win and some positive media news. Do they rock up again for Buckley?

Syndey are in a funny position. They cant make finals so what are they playing for would be crossing their minds struggling to get up for the game mentally.

How do the tigers go at Etihad? Won all games at MCG this year and the gabba where brisbane have been poor

 

[Keystone agony]

Best bets:
GWS win
Eagles +21.5 @1.93
Fremantle Win

 

[free at last]

It would be as pointless as comparing tragedy in third world countries. It's all horrific.

If you really want an answer, I guess 365 took the longest to limit ... but then limited the most.

And B365 posts a pre-tax profit of close to 500 million pounds.

 

[targett]

Betting Club U202.5 $1.90

In to 189.5 this could end up a nice middle

 

[Vhaluus]

Beams out for lions makes chance of an upset much smaller

 

[Angus Young]

The Tigers hadn't played anyone of note until this weekend and got found out.The doggies showed some of their 2016 finals form on Friday night,they'll roll Richmond imo.

agreed... Dogs are a quality side.

 

[Keystone agony]

Beams out for lions makes chance of an upset much smaller

Wow market takes much longer to react than i thought. Stayed at 5.75 for a while now 6.70

 

[targett]

Wow market takes much longer to react than i thought. Stayed at 5.75 for a while now 6.70

$8 B365

 

[langdon19]

Tgs under 194.5 crown
Tgs over 186.5 365

Edit crows v north

 

[Jelly85]

Odd....TAB line margins not out yet for tomorrow?

 

[Special Agent Utah]

What i am liking early on.

GWS -14.5
Collingwood 1-39
WCE +23.5
Melbourne -13.5

North/Adel over 185.5 * Edit Unders looking at weather
Port Eagles under 191
Dogs Tigers under 195
Melbourne Hawks Unders

 

[targett]

Tgs under 194.5 crown
Tgs over 186.5 365

Edit crows v north

Nice.Im cotemplating taking the O185.5 Crown along with U202.5 but might wait until tomorrow or when they start pushing the line the other way.

 

[Special Agent Utah]

Multi for the Round

GWS -14.5 > Coll 1-39 > WCE +38.5 > Melbourne -13.5 > Under 205.5 Dogs/Tigers > Under 207.5 North Adelaide @ $17

 

[iluvparis]

Sports offering bonus bet if your BWLW bet loses but you get the right winning team on the Saints-Giants match.

 

[mookieb]

Anyone got any thoughts on some of the following Unibet specials:

Saints +14.5 + Ross 30+ - $4.50 - Expecting a close game especially with Haynes and Greene out. Seb Ross (36, 33 and 32) in his last 3.
Coll win + Pendles 30+ - $3 - Expecting a comfortable Coll win. Pendles out of form, but 30 last week.
Port or WC under 15 + Wingard 1 goal - $4.50 - Expecting a close game and Wingard to keep a couple (assuming he's not primarily midfield).
Swans -39.5 + Hannebery 30+ - $5 - Lines out to -44.5 with Beams out. Hanners not playing well, but should rack them up here.
Freo win + Neale 1 goal - $3.50 - Freo should win. Neale been playing forward and kicking goals.
Under 190.5 + Zorko 1 goal - $8 - Seems the best value. Zorko's a noted goal kicker and both Syd and Bris are struggling to kick big scores (their WB score was flattered by great kicking for goal)

 

[karaoke]

Under 190.5 + Zorko + o29.5 disp. +1 goal - $8 - Seems the best value. Zorko's a noted goal kicker and both Syd and Bris are struggling to kick big scores (their WB score was flattered by great kicking for goal)

EFA

 

[mookieb]

EFA

Not sure where you got the possession number from - https://www.unibet.com.au/betting#filter/unibet_featured/australian_rules/afl

Edit: Actually it shows up when you go to place the bet, but not in the original description. Well that's f*cking annoying.

 

[karaoke]

Not sure where you got the possession number from - https://www.unibet.com.au/betting#filter/unibet_featured/australian_rules/afl

Edit: Actually it shows up when you go to place the bet, but not in the original description. Well that's f*cking annoying.

For me, the link says o29.5 disposals...

 

[mookieb]

Early lines taken during week

Port. -7.5. Current. -16.6
Crows -15.5 Current. -36.5
GWS. - 12.5 Current. -14.5
Tigers +16.5. Current +19.5

Will look to middle these.The Tigers line might just hold tight till pre match to see what happen worst case just hedge out maybe putting bias on the bulldogs.The unpredictability of team performance has me leaning to the Middles rather than taking the lines.

I would give some thought to hedging out that Richmond bet. Surprised it hasn't changed much with announcement of teams. Conca, Nankervis and Prestia out plus Edwards who is also missing. Depth players in and a project ruck.

I was on WB -10.5 earlier so I could middle, but don't think I will as the ins (Boyd in for WB) and outs are pretty significant in my eyes.

 

[sledbomber]

On sb pies are paying $2 to kick more behinds than goals. They have done this in all 6 of their games this season. It is under season exotics.