Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Azul]

I initially tried to suppress the McLean trade pain, but I ended up throwing things at the TV every time a toothpaste commercial came on.


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Same but Bathurst motor racing

 

[therubbernub]

A few teams will drop off in the next couple of years as we start improving rapidly. It may not even be a case of us 'being ready' to play finals. We may Bradbury it into finals earlier than expected..

West coast will be losing Mitchell, Priddis, Petrie this year with Josh Kennedy turning 31 next year and I don't see a lot of replacements waiting in the wings (pun intended). Expect a rebuild from them.

Essendon on top of losing Jobe, Kelly this year also have a 33 year old Goddard coming into next year. That's 3 of their top 10 players potentially gone after losing a final by 10 goals in 2017 with a draw this year which saw them play 7 of their last 8 games against bottom 8 sides. Still only just scraped into finals.

Hawthorn, no Hodge, Gibson and 35 year old Burgoyne and no first round draft picks. Still reckon the pain is on its way for the Hawks.

The cats are already showing the cracks, they may also possibly be without Harry Taylor on top of Lonergan and Mackie next year..

Collingwood are going nowhere.

Freo losing Michael Johnson and having a 34 year old injury prone Sandilands will hurt (6 of their 8 wins this year came with Sandi in the ruck). Mundy also 33 next year. Big question marks.

GC, big question marks.

North Melbourne, big question marks.

I think that every club will be pretty even. The player selection and development has improved so much over the past decade, and the talent available to most clubs is pretty even compared to 20 years ago where there were a huge gap between the haves and have nots.
Why? I think that the AFL have done a great job bringing money, prestige and exposure into the concept of AFL as a career. Simply the % of young kids aspiring to play AFL professionally has soared. Add to that % is the fact that our population growth has been enormous over the same period and you have a massively expanded pool of young players entering into the system each year. If that figure has tripled I wouldnt be surprised. At the same time, the competition has expanded by just 2 teams -a 12.5% increase in players required. Sheer numbers dictate that the extra demand for list places by the massively increased supply of young players, means that most clubs are able to enjoy very talented players on their lists. In addition , the players are playing longer due to recent rule changes that have slowed the game down and hence favor older players . What that means is that the opportunity for younger players is reduced slightly as some older players continue well past 30YO.

So all clubs are now getting exposed to enough talent, that is no longer the main determining factor of success that it used to be. The more important factors IMO are development programs and culture that favors player retention. There have been a few clubs that were waay behind the 8 ball with regards to culture and development and we were one of those clubs- as was brisbane post premiership era, melbourne pre Roos, Dogs prior to Beveridge. I believe Brisbane are on the way to being fixed with Fagan in charge, We are looking good, dogs just won last year. Melbourne seem to be on the right track as well. That really leaves just Gold coast and MAYBE GWS (who continue to underperform despite their list)

Really there is no reason to assume that just because a club hasnt been playing young players , but instead sticking with established senior players , that those young players dont exist on their list. Look at the Hawks and what they have unearthed this year. We all thought that with dangerfield gone and sloane being heavily tagged, that the crows had no midfield to speak of- how wrong we were.The swans have shown us all how well run their development program is with the evolution of their list. Every club knows how important it is to have young players waiting in the wings ready to step up when needed.

There are misjudgments that come into play that modify player development/opportunity when teams are contending. Clarkson the other night admitted that he knew after the 2015 premiership that their best football was behind them and i think was saying that he really didnt expect to win in 2015. He went on to say that he couldnt deny the players the chance to win their 4th in 2016 even though he knew it wasnt the best thing for his list development. So I guess there are the issues that surround playing old established stars for too long that are brought on by a belief that you could contend with an ageing list. North as another example finally pulled the pin in 2016 retiring Petrie , Harvey and Del Santo after they tired badly in the second half after being top of the ladder with 10-1 wins after rd 11.

But if the culture is there and the development behind the scenes is happening, then it can turn around much more quickly than we think. All that is really needed is some senior experience with some young players and they are ready to impact the game.

 

[therubbernub]

Hope in the midfield. Really rate this kid. Raw but very smart with ball in hand, can win a lot of ball and has some pace. Ideal Murphy replacement IMO

Soap have you seen him play?

 

[Soapy V]

Luke Dahlhaus apparently up for trade. Interesting one.

25 year old mid/forward who generally has a real go. I rate him highly and can kick goals. Had poor year this year but so have most of the Bulldogs

Is he what we need, fit age bracket and would we chase him at 25 and if so what would he cost?

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Can we get his brother too?

Id just prefer the brother actually.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

did you hear the tirade Kochy let fly ?

firstly - ridiculous right after the match
secondly - i dare say you're right

Its no more ridiculous than the posters who comment here five minutes after any loss with comments based purely on emotion without objectivity.

 

[thylacine60]

Sorry for your loss

was genuinely surprised he was cut - had hopes for him similar to young mcinnes before he did his knee

 

[thylacine60]

Its no more ridiculous than the posters who comment here five minutes after any loss with comments based purely on emotion without objectivity.

er, we ain't president of a footy club

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

er, we ain't president of a footy club

The principle of what I'm saying is exactly the same though. Club President or supporter.

 

[thylacine60]

The principle of what I'm saying is exactly the same though. Club President or supporter.

oh I see........... the principle.........

 

[HBF]

I reckon there will be fallout from the Port loss.

I wouldn't be surprised if Impey, Trengove, Young and Ah Chee are thrown onto the trade table.

this isn't a rumor, just a hunch. I have worked with Ginever, Kelly and Thomas in a corporate/sponsorship setting and they wont be impressed with the currents group failure.

They would be much better to trade with than the Cows. In my opinion, Gibbs is exactly what they need.

TA

All of that is probably true, but if Gibbs does go back to SA I dare say he'd want to be playing for the Crows.

 

[HBF]

Really hope we arent chasing Trengove from Port. Dont think we need him especially with Casboult staying.

We don't need talls at all.
Surely we focus our efforts on building our midfield depth.

 

[I AM CARLTON]

Any update on Cuningham?

 

[thylacine60]

nno

 

[Tommy Alvin]

We don't need talls at all.
Surely we focus our efforts on building our midfield depth.

you are right HBF, Gibbs would probably want to play for the Cows but I wouldn't be surprised if Port become quite active all of a sudden and throw a few players around in trade week. They don't take losing finals very well and they were absolutely thrashed in the last Showdown (where they copped a lot of criticism). They think that Grey x 2, Hartlett, Wingard, Ryder, SPP, Wines, Boak and Dixon are elite and that they have enough talent to contend for a flag (which is rubbish). I reckon they would look at Gibbs and like Adelaide think that he would improve their midfield and add class to their last lick into the forward 50m. I reckon they are right, Gibbs does that very well.

What none of us know is who Port think is 'not part of a premiership' team like Koch stated on Saturday night. You never know, they might throw one of their touted 'elite' on the table to try an lure some one in.

As I have always said, this is not a rumor, its a hunch. I KNOW NOTHING.

TA

 

[Cripps17]

Luke Dahlhaus apparently up for trade. Interesting one.

25 year old mid/forward who generally has a real go. I rate him highly and can kick goals. Had poor year this year but so have most of the Bulldogs

Is he what we need, fit age bracket and would we chase him at 25 and if so what would he cost?

Would like him but can't see him going for less than a mid to late 1st round pick, which we don't have, and would be better directed toward any GWS targets if we did.

Not sure why they'd offload him though unless he has requested it.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

nno

Intentional or not, that will be $2 in the no jar thank you very much.

 

[Soapy V]

We don't need talls at all.
Surely we focus our efforts on building our midfield depth.

From Round 23 this year our midfield could add Cripps Curnow Kennedy Balic Smith Lang & LDU plus improvement in Charlie Fisher Polson Pickett Cuningham & SPS. At worst we lose Gibbs and if we do it may add Stephenson & another player.

 

[Soapy V]

Would like him but can't see him going for less than a mid to late 1st round pick, which we don't have, and would be better directed toward any GWS targets if we did.

If we somehow traded Gibbs for 9 & 18 would 18 be worth it? I'd be tempted especially with two picks in the top 10.


PS Can't see Adelaide doing tha deal but can always hope.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Any update on Cuningham?

Clerical error with the paperwork.

McKay keeps spelling it Cunningham.

Legal team getting frustrated, have asked him to fix it.

Sources within the club say McKay's only response so far has been "I'm confident it'll be 1-2 n's".

 

[HBF]

Would like him but can't see him going for less than a mid to late 1st round pick, which we don't have, and would be better directed toward any GWS targets if we did.

Not sure why they'd offload him though unless he has requested it.

Dahlhaus I would enquire about for sure. A goalkicking mid is exactly what we need.

 

[HBF]

From Round 23 this year our midfield could add Cripps Curnow Kennedy Balic Smith Lang & LDU plus improvement in Charlie Fisher Polson Pickett Cuningham & SPS. At worst we lose Gibbs and if we do it may add Stephenson & another player.

This is still adding depth.
I just can't think of any reason why we would go tall again in this draft, unless we're taking a ruckman.

 

[nike1]

would love dahlhaus , but not sure what we'd have to give up.

 

[Quazza]

Dahlhaus I would enquire about for sure. A goalkicking mid is exactly what we need.

they seemed to play him a lot less in the midfield this year for some reason.

(as an owner in Supercoach it was most frustrating )

 

[therubbernub]

Clerical error with the paperwork.

McKay keeps spelling it Cunningham.

Legal team getting frustrated, have asked him to fix it.

Sources within the club say McKay's only response so far has been "I'm confident it'll be 1-2 n's".

lucky its not the dreaded 3