Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Ken Navies]

Blinded by the light, wrapped up like a douche and lend a ruler in the night...

Wow, you know what a ‘douche’ is right?

 

[ferrisb]

Make no mistake, the reason that GWS let players go like Smith and Kennedy is due to Salary Cap pressure, therefore the club taking them off their hands is doing them the favour, therefore you pay UNDERS not overs.

Warning: wanky, possibly long-winded post to follow.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Price doesn't always = value.

We fixate on price, but value is equally important.

Let's say my If my neighbour wants to sell his house, which has been valued at $1M.

I know he is desperate to sell as debt collectors are due in 10 mins (let's call them Vy Tickery's friends). If I play my cards right, and screw him over completely, I might pick up his house for $600k. He might come back later to burn the house down, though....

Let's say there are other interested buyers, I might pay $900-950k to get it over the line. Nowhere near as good as before, but still a good deal. And he walks away relatively happy.

If I wanted to buy his house as much as he wanted to sell it, I could pay the full $1M. I'm paying 'full value', which sounds crap. But while I'm no longer getting a good deal, I'm not getting a bad one either.

When we are chasing targets, I pray that we pay $700k but think it's reasonable to expect to pay $900k-$1M. Anything less than that is a bonus.

I contend that Kennedy and Smith together are worth ballpark pick 10 (see previous post).
But because of contract status, salary cap pressures, nominating Carlton etc, we might pay pick 15+. And if you include a salary cup dump it might blow out further. Just because circumstances mean we might pay a lower price, it doesn't mean the value of what we bring in dissipates. I'm not going to cry into my cornflakes if we paid pick 10 for them (even if I thought we could do better).

Buying a bottle of grange for $5 is the dream, but getting 15% off a slab of beer is still satisfying and much easier to accomplish.


Somehow, somewhere, a bird just shat on Blue Doormat's ice cream....

 

[jd2010]

How on earth are we planning on pulling off Smith + Kennedy and Saad holding just picks 3, 38 and something in the 50s?

Would be great to get all 3 and rockcliff but I guess that'll mean we lose Gibbs to do so.

Still would be an amazing summer. Pick 3, Smith, Kennedy, Rockcliff and Saad all in and just Gibbs out.

 

[ferrisb]

Back from a very relaxing holidays I'm not up on the recent discussions. Saad seems like a really good buy if we can get him. Explosive pace. We need a seasoned mentor up forward. Doesn't seem to be many in scope? Have I missed someone???

Yes. Where did you holiday ?

You say Sicily and you get a one-week ban.

We don't like that name round these parts. Not fair but them's the rules

 

[Blue and Silver]

That moment when the accountant's mind rears its head from beneath the veneer of the humorists facade.

Damn clever Ferris

 

[footyfan1978]

Warning: wanky, possibly long-winded post to follow.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Price doesn't always = value.

We fixate on price, but value is equally important.

Let's say my If my neighbour wants to sell his house, which has been valued at $1M.

I know he is desperate to sell as debt collectors are due in 10 mins (let's call them Vy Tickery's friends). If I play my cards right, and screw him over completely, I might pick up his house for $600k. He might come back later to burn the house down, though....

Let's say there are other interested buyers, I might pay $900-950k to get it over the line. Nowhere near as good as before, but still a good deal. And he walks away relatively happy.

If I wanted to buy his house as much as he wanted to sell it, I could pay the full $1M. I'm paying 'full value', which sounds crap. But while I'm no longer getting a good deal, I'm not getting a bad one either.

When we are chasing targets, I pray that we pay $700k but think it's reasonable to expect to pay $900k-$1M. Anything less than that is a bonus.

I contend that Kennedy and Smith together are worth ballpark pick 10 (see previous post).
But because of contract status, salary cap pressures, nominating Carlton etc, we might pay pick 15+. And if you include a salary cup dump it might blow out further. Just because circumstances mean we might pay a lower price, it doesn't mean the value of what we bring in dissipates. I'm not going to cry into my cornflakes if we paid pick 10 for them (even if I thought we could do better).

Buying a bottle of grange for $5 is the dream, but getting 15% off a slab of beer is still satisfying and much easier to accomplish.


Somehow, somewhere, a bird just shat on Blue Doormat's ice cream....

So what you are saying is the ice cream is worth nothing even before the bird shat on it ?

 

[Malifice]

10 for Kennedy and Smith is WAY overs.

Absolutely no chance of happening mate.

I'd do 10 for Smith and Kennedy.

 

[Blue Doormat]

Warning: wanky, possibly long-winded post to follow.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Price doesn't always = value.

We fixate on price, but value is equally important.

Let's say my If my neighbour wants to sell his house, which has been valued at $1M.

I know he is desperate to sell as debt collectors are due in 10 mins (let's call them Vy Tickery's friends). If I play my cards right, and screw him over completely, I might pick up his house for $600k. He might come back later to burn the house down, though....

Let's say there are other interested buyers, I might pay $900-950k to get it over the line. Nowhere near as good as before, but still a good deal. And he walks away relatively happy.

If I wanted to buy his house as much as he wanted to sell it, I could pay the full $1M. I'm paying 'full value', which sounds crap. But while I'm no longer getting a good deal, I'm not getting a bad one either.

When we are chasing targets, I pray that we pay $700k but think it's reasonable to expect to pay $900k-$1M. Anything less than that is a bonus.

I contend that Kennedy and Smith together are worth ballpark pick 10 (see previous post).
But because of contract status, salary cap pressures, nominating Carlton etc, we might pay pick 15+. And if you include a salary cup dump it might blow out further. Just because circumstances mean we might pay a lower price, it doesn't mean the value of what we bring in dissipates. I'm not going to cry into my cornflakes if we paid pick 10 for them (even if I thought we could do better).

Buying a bottle of grange for $5 is the dream, but getting 15% off a slab of beer is still satisfying and much easier to accomplish.


Somehow, somewhere, a bird just shat on Blue Doormat's ice cream....

Nice mix

 

[Soapy V]

I expect 4-6 of the following then to the draft for another 4-6 plus rookies:

Rockliff
Kennedy
Smith
Lang
Balic
Miles
Shaw
Saad

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Braydon Preuss – Some talk going around that with North set to retain Todd Goldstein, he might be the target of other clubs. Contracted until the end of 2018.

'


Would we consider Braydon Preuss?

 

[Toddski]

I'd do 10 for Smith and Kennedy.

One bloke has knee issues and the other has shown very little.

Current value for both including a salary dump would be second rounder.

Glad you're not running our footy department.

 

[Wickzki]

'


Would we consider Braydon Preuss?

Don't have the currency to trade for him with other targets given the priority and the priority other clubs may have on Braydon.

Though with talk of Mumford being done, GWS may have interest and he may well become part of a 3-team trade there IF that's who GWS focus their attention on.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

'


Would we consider Braydon Preuss?

Yes at a price but I doubt he considers us with Kreuzer.

 

[Malifice]

One bloke has knee issues and the other has shown very little.

Its a weak draft, and I disagree that Kennedy has shown very little.

He's shown more than another Kennedy who was traded for a packet of chips a while back who plays similar. Also a midfielder.

Current value for both including a salary dump would be second rounder.

Kennedy was taken with a mid first round draft pick and has shown he was worth it.

Would you accept a second rounder for Cuningham or Fisher in this draft?

Glad you're not running our footy department.

Is there a need for this?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

#16 + #34 for Gibbs
Rockliff for free
Balic + #55 for #38
Smith + Kennedy + #63 for #16
#42 for #55 + #63 (Hawks owe us)

Leaves us with
#4, #34, #42, #56, #75

Not interested in Lang or Shaw who have been discussed. I think 9 changes is enough + perhaps a 10th for a SOS DFA special pending a GWS salary dump. Saad is not a huge need IMO.

 

[thylacine60]

will the other teams be drafting and trading as well? anyone know?

 

[juzza316]

I expect 4-6 of the following then to the draft for another 4-6 plus rookies:

Rockliff
Kennedy
Smith
Lang
Balic
Miles
Shaw
Saad

I would be expecting 1-3 of that list, max. Hopefully the top 3.

 

[Blue and Silver]

will the other teams be drafting and trading as well? anyone know?

I hear that Collingwood is looking for a grand total of 87 front teeth for the cheer squad.

Willing to trade Chris Mayne

 

[DangerousD]

That's an opinion I suppose, actually no its not. Here's one though. How about you **** OFF keyboard expert and stop sniping as you always do and actually have a real opinion.

Settle down, no need for that here.

 

[footyfan1978]

will the other teams be drafting and trading as well? anyone know?

Adelaide with Reid may give away someone like Jake Kelly for a pick 60 if last year is anything to go by.
Goldy will go somewhere.
Balic too.
Stringer too.
Lever to Dees I think is a monty.

 

[FilthyRon]

Melbourne
Out: Pick 10, Pick 27 and 2018 Second Round Pick
In: Lever, Pick 38

Adelaide
Out: Lever, Cameron, (18, back out, but keep their 1st in 16)
In: Pick 10, Pick 18 and Gibbs

Carlton
Out: Gibbs, Pick 38
In: Pick 18, Pick 27, 2018 Second Round Pick

Brisbane
Out: Pick 18
In: Cameron

Cant see why any team would be super unhappy with these trades.

and we could probably get Kennedy, Smith and Saad for 18, 27 and 2018 second

 

[Toddski]

Its a weak draft, and I disagree that Kennedy has shown very little.

He's shown more than another Kennedy who was traded for a packet of chips a while back who plays similar. Also a midfielder.



Kennedy was taken with a mid first round draft pick and has shown he was worth it.

Would you accept a second rounder for Cuningham or Fisher in this draft?



Is there a need for this?

You're forgetting that they want out mate and the club are on the back foot.

If they nominate us we will not be paying anywhere close to what you are suggesting.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Lever to Dees I think is a monty.

Jake Niall warbling the Pies may get into Adelaide with 2 first rounders for Lever.

 

[kingkingston]

Melbourne
Out: Pick 10, Pick 27 and 2018 Second Round Pick
In: Lever, Pick 38

Adelaide
Out: Lever, Cameron, (18, back out, but keep their 1st in 16)
In: Pick 10, Pick 18 and Gibbs

Carlton
Out: Gibbs, Pick 38
In: Pick 18, Pick 27, 2018 Second Round Pick

Brisbane
Out: Pick 18
In: Cameron

Cant see why any team would be super unhappy with these trades.

and we could probably get Kennedy, Smith and Saad for 18, 27 and 2018 second

Firstly at this stage Gibbs will not be traded, secondly that is a horrible deal for us

 

[footyfan1978]

Jake Niall warbling the Pies may get into Adelaide with 2 first rounders for Lever.

Could make things interesting.
Collingwood need something as treading water slowly for a number of years now.