Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Blue_Fusion]

Then trade Gibbs three way for 10

That's how you get three mids in top ten

Which 3 mids would you draft with:

1 >>
8 >>
10 >>

???

 

[F_therest]

Do we have a snowball in hell's hope of getting a PP? We've gone backwards which is one of the criteria, loosely speaking.

PP 19
Cas 18

Trade them both for ~8

If we get those picks I reckon best case scenario would be:

Pick 18 for Hopper.
Pick 19 on best mid available.

Casboult for Hopper and then a free hit at a top 20 midfielder would be awesome!

I'd also trade pick 1 for Kelly and pick up Balic cheaply giving us 4 new talented young midfielders just like that.

 

[Navara79]

Carlton offer Levi 1.2 million over 3 years and Levi knocked it back. Carlton (rightfully) won't offer any more.

http://aflnation.com.au/2017/08/13/1758/

 

[I AM CARLTON]

This talk of trading Weitering is just crazy.

Think about it Sos scouts him for his u 18 season likes him so much that he drafts him with pick 1.

Knows that big boys take a while to develop, Bolton has played him every week he has been available.

2 years later does anyone think Sos will go you know i dont like what i did 2 years ago time to move him on. Its a 66 game rebuild people there is just no chance any of the players who have been brought in from the draft will be moved on during the 66 games.

We will prob end up with pick 1, Gibbs may go for a first rounder and if Kelly did nominate us i can see us maybe using our first round pick next year but Weitering will not be part of any trade. I dont think Macreadie will either but if they were going to trade 1 it would be the bloke playing ressies not the guy playing seniors.

 

[FairKouta]

Macreadie is a first year player and I have no doubt he will be a really really good player.
Sos and bolts are going for the Geelong model load from the back and front and then the middle. 2019 it will all start.

 

[Coona Blues]

Yeah getting pretty worried about Cuningham...it's been very quiet about it to no one seems to know why he hasn't signed no rumour at all.

Can't see why he would leave though...2Nd year player and a midfielder who will get plenty of opportunities with us given our lack of depth. He's already best 22. Plus it seems we really rated him higher than most others...Iirc it surprised most that we took him at pick 23 or whatever it ended up being. Was seen as one from a bit left field.

We have a salary cap to manage, we are certainly unsure at this stage which of our trade targets
are going to eventuate. Suspect Cuningham is locked in, but perhaps the contract is open, we may
need to front end more, and he would be likely to be one, however to commit those dollars with a
monumental payment to Kelly still a possibility would be premature.

My best guess.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Carlton offer Levi 1.2 million over 3 years and Levi knocked it back. Carlton (rightfully) won't offer any more.

http://aflnation.com.au/2017/08/13/1758/

Yep 400k should be all he gets. MAX. That's why when I heard the rumour the Tigers were offering 600k I thought it was too good to be true but if it was then I'd even help him pack his bags he'd be an idiot not to take that and I would've been very happy to see him go as a FA. The compo would've been 2nd rounder.

Turns out Tuggers aren't offering him anything.

But surely, you don't knock a contract offer back unless you've been offered something better elsewhere?

 

[Mr_Plow]

Carlton offer Levi 1.2 million over 3 years and Levi knocked it back. Carlton (rightfully) won't offer any more.

http://aflnation.com.au/2017/08/13/1758/

We're being extremely generous with that offer, perhaps strategically generous such that 500k for 3 years from another club gets him to leave.

From our point of view, that offer is obviously a year too long for my liking. Would prefer 500k for 2 prime Casboult years just for the shorter term, we'd be in severe trouble if Casboult is still in the team in 2020.

Although, 400k for 3 years under the new CBA isn't going to choke us.

 

[1981]

Which 3 mids would you draft with:

1 >>
8 >>
10 >>

???

Higgins and O'Brien might be around that mark (8-10).

I'd go Raynar at 1. I like the fact he is a bull who can impact up fwd. We need that type. Would compliment our list.

 

[Iamcarlton]

I stopped reading at... Silly

Think i made an error directing that post at yourself your response has confirmed my suspicion

 

[1981]

This talk of trading Weitering is just crazy.

Think about it Sos scouts him for his u 18 season likes him so much that he drafts him with pick 1.

Knows that big boys take a while to develop, Bolton has played him every week he has been available.

2 years later does anyone think Sos will go you know i dont like what i did 2 years ago time to move him on. Its a 66 game rebuild people there is just no chance any of the players who have been brought in from the draft will be moved on during the 66 games.

We will prob end up with pick 1, Gibbs may go for a first rounder and if Kelly did nominate us i can see us maybe using our first round pick next year but Weitering will not be part of any trade. I dont think Macreadie will either but if they were going to trade 1 it would be the bloke playing ressies not the guy playing seniors.

JW looked to have a spring in his step last night. May well have been injured a lot this year.

 

[1981]

Think i made an error directing that post at yourself your response has confirmed my suspicion

It is silly to talk of trading Murphy or Weitering. Is that plain enough English for you?

 

[ShanDog]

It is silly to talk of trading Murphy or Weitering. Is that plain enough English for you?

Hell would freeze over before we trade Weiters, but there's nothing wrong with talking about it. Takes guts to have an opinion against the grain, and if you can back it up with a reasoned argument, then the discussion is worthwhile.

I think if a swap of JW and Kelly could occur, it would benefit both teams.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Higgins and O'Brien might be around that mark (8-10).

I'd go Raynar at 1. I like the fact he is a bull who can impact up fwd. We need that type. Would compliment our list.

Good choices at those picks.

If we do have pick #1 and keep it then Rayner is a no brainer.

I doubt that Levi is going to get us pick #19 though. We've offered him 400k for 3 years and he's knocking that back, but it has been revealed that Tigers 600k off is bullshit and not happening. So highly doubt the Pies would be offering that either.

 

[Blue and Silver]

OK Long Post Warning, going to chuck it behind spoiler tags so you aren't scrolling all day:

Spoiler: State of List

State of List:

Key Forwards:

Levi Casboult
Charlie Curnow
Harry McKay
Kristian Jaksch
Pat Kerr

Medium Forwards:
Jack Silvagni

Small Forwards:
Matthew Wright
Jed Lamb
Liam Sumner
Dennis Armfield
Jarrod Pickett
Kym Lebois
Andrew Gallucci

Ruck:
Matthew Kreuzer
Andrew Phillips
Daniel Gorringe
Matthew Korcheck

Outside Midfielder:
Marc Murphy
Sam Petrevski-Seton
Kade Simpson
Sam Kerridge
Blaine Boekhorst
Zac Fisher
Cam Polson
Dale Thomas
Billie Smedts

Inside Midfielder:
Bryce Gibbs
Patrick Cripps
Rhys Palmer
David Cuningham
Nick Graham
Ed Curnow

Key Defenders:
Liam Jones
Caleb Marchbank
Jacob Weitering
Harrison MacReadie
Alex Silvagni
Sam Rowe
Jesse Glass-McCasker

Medium Defenders:
Lachie Plowman
Sam Docherty
Ciaran Byrne
Tom Williamson
Simon White
Ciaran Sheehan

Small Defenders:
Dylan Buckley

Above is simply a list of the approximate role I see each player on the list performing.

Spoiler: Players Leaving:

Retiring:
Dennis Armfield

Delisted:

Dylan Buckley
Kristian Jaksch
Daniel Gorringe
Jesse Glass-McCasker
Andrew Gallucci
Matt Korcheck

Likely traded/free agent:
Bryce Gibbs
Levi Casboult

That's 9 players who I expect will be gone, 3 off the rookie list, 6 off the senior.

Spoiler: Expected Compensation:

Casboult: 2nd Rounder
Gibbs: 1st Rounder + change

Which brings us to: 2 1st rounders, 1 second rounder, 1 third rounder and so on

Spoiler: Trade Targets:

Josh Kelly - High 1st rounder and change
Jacob Hopper - Mid first rounder
Jack Redpath - Late third rounder or less

This is based on rumours and not on my personal opinion, you could probably come up with more. Personally I think we only land 1 of Kelly and Hopper (I will nominate Kelly), while if true about Redpath I think it's a pretty easy deal for us to finalise (although it will almost certainly happen late).

State of list post changes:

Spoiler: State of List post changes:

State of List:

Key Forwards:

Charlie Curnow
Harry McKay
Kristian Jaksch
Pat Kerr
Jack Redpath

Medium Forwards:
Jack Silvagni

Small Forwards:
Matthew Wright
Jed Lamb
Liam Sumner
Jarrod Pickett
Kym Lebois

Ruck:
Matthew Kreuzer
Andrew Phillips


Outside Midfielder:
Marc Murphy
Sam Petrevski-Seton
Kade Simpson
Sam Kerridge
Blaine Boekhorst
Zac Fisher
Cam Polson
Dale Thomas
Billie Smedts

Inside Midfielder:
Josh Kelly
Patrick Cripps
Rhys Palmer
David Cuningham
Nick Graham
Ed Curnow

Key Defenders:
Liam Jones
Caleb Marchbank
Jacob Weitering
Harrison MacReadie
Alex Silvagni
Sam Rowe

Medium Defenders:
Lachie Plowman
Sam Docherty
Ciaran Byrne
Tom Williamson
Simon White
Ciaran Sheehan

Small Defenders:

So now we are at 3 rookie places, 4 senior spots, 1 mid first rounder, 1 second rounder, 1 third rounder, 1 fourth

Spoiler: Draft Options at picks:

Mid First Round: Jack Higgins, Charlie Constable, Jack Petrucculle, Andrew Brayshaw, Hunter Clark, Lochie O'Brien

Second Rounder: Charlie Spargo, Zac Bailey, James Worpel, Lachlan Fogarty

Third Round: Jordan Houlahan, Adam Sambono, Nicholas Shipley, Cassidy Parish

This year is pretty good for midfielders, who while not "wow" types, seem to be good at getting the job done. Not a bad draft to go after the bread and butter types

End of Post-Season Best 22:

B: Williamson, Jones, Plowman
HB: Docherty, Marchbank, Weitering
C: Petrevski-Seton, Cripps, Murphy
HF: Wright, C. Curnow, Fisher
F: Pickett, McKay, Silvagni
R: Kreuzer, Kelly, E. Curnow
I/C: Kerridge, Thomas, Byrne, Cuningham

 

[Iamcarlton]

It is silly to talk of trading Murphy or Weitering. Is that plain enough English for you?

Did i specifically mention we should trade weitering and murphy did i ? Maybe you should have read my post in full instead of stopping at silly.....

 

[bmaurizio]

For the future I'd draft Rayner impactful, game changing ability rare talent and Joel Garner for a silky skilled versatility very good midfielder.
For immediate pain relief chase Dusty Martin and keep Gibbs if he's happy to continue .
We do need to chase a tall KPF also preferably a kick goal kicker.
Although 2018 draft should settled that issue once and for all , we'l be flying after that.
Go Baggers

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Just wrong. He may not be the greatest leader but I thought he worked as hard as possible last night

Who says? You? Big comment. Why do you say this?

I was being sarcastic.

 

[Jabba73]

It is silly to talk of trading Murphy or Weitering. Is that plain enough English for you?

It would be sillier to say that our list is complete when we are going to finish last or second last.

No player is off the table when it comes to talk of how to improve the list, unless there is no need to change the list at all. If we are going to make changes, all options with trade currency should be able to be discussed. Dreaming of a pick inside the top 20 for players some are willing to delist is not going to get the job done. Pretty much only leaves players that some/most/all supporters would like to stay.

If we don't make changes to the list after winning less than 20% of games for the year, that would be the definition of silly. Discussions, while probably unlikely to happen in reality, are not.

 

[1981]

Hell would freeze over before we trade Weiters, but there's nothing wrong with talking about it. Takes guts to have an opinion against the grain, and if you can back it up with a reasoned argument, then the discussion is worthwhile.

I think if a swap of JW and Kelly could occur, it would benefit both teams.

You say he'll would freeze over

So it is POINTLESS discussing it

 

[1981]

It would be sillier to say that our list is complete when we are going to finish last or second last.

No player is off the table when it comes to talk of how to improve the list, unless there is no need to change the list at all. If we are going to make changes, all options with trade currency should be able to be discussed. Dreaming of a pick inside the top 20 for players some are willing to delist is not going to get the job done. Pretty much only leaves players that some/most/all supporters would like to stay.

If we don't make changes to the list after winning less than 20% of games for the year, that would be the definition of silly. Discussions, while probably unlikely to happen in reality, are not.

Who says our list is complete???
Good argument

 

[Toddski]

For the future I'd draft Rayner impactful, game changing ability rare talent and Joel Garner for a silky skilled versatility very good midfielder.
For immediate pain relief chase Dusty Martin and keep Gibbs if he's happy to continue .
We do need to chase a tall KPF also preferably a kick goal kicker.
Although 2018 draft should settled that issue once and for all , we'l be flying after that.
Go Baggers

I always wonder how these ridiculous reputations come about. Joel Garner is a butcher of the highest order. Do not want.

 

[Robertio]

LIST BUILDING 102 - Trust The Process

When we traded for Judd, the trade was analysed to death.

We got Judd and Armfield. We lost 3, 20, Kennedy. End of story right?

Wrong.

WCE got 3, 4 and Natanui the very next year. Losing Judd meant they wouldnt wallow in mediocrity for a few years while they figure shit out. They were able to bring in young talent.

A similar process is evident for us at the Blues. We built our spine/KPPs first for a reason. Mids reach a level of good contribution 3 years faster than bigs.

This means if we truly sort out our spines first (im not sure but for argument sake)

Back: Weitering Marchbank Plowman
Forward: McKay Curnow SOS

You can then spend the years after that acquiring your SPS/Rayner/Oliver types.

But trusting the process has 2 benefits:

1) You peak together. Mids and Bigs will end up peaking in 2019/2020 together for a sustained rise.

2) The fact that your KPPs take longer to mature mean you'll wallow at the bottom for a few years allowing you to acquire top picks for those mids.

If you had done the reverse, those Mids would rise you up faster than the KPPs meaning you dont have those top picks to acquire the elite KPPs you need.

TLDR: Don't trade Weiters. Be patient and we will get our mids.

See now that was easy.

 

[ShanDog]

You say he'll would freeze over

So it is POINTLESS discussing it

Well let's extend your logic out further.

Nothing we discuss here impacts what the club doesn.

So it is POINTLESS having a forum.

Swim in your own lane and stop trying to tell people what they should or shouldn't discuss.

 

[Jabba73]

Who says our list is complete???
Good argument

No one has said the list is complete, also can't find a single player on the list with any trade value that everyone agrees should be traded. If we couldn't trade away anyone that BF was willing to defend, the list is technically complete.