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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

Discussion in 'Carlton' started by BrisbaneCFC, Jun 17, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. HARKER

    HARKER Hall of Famer

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    He did ask for extra time but it's about the conversation he was having with Bolton that interested me.
     
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  2. Teagueeee15

    Teagueeee15 Club Legend

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    Eric Pascoe posted in one of the draft day threads last year that if GWS matched the Macreadie bid that ED Phillips would have been taken.
     
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  3. zeeCFC

    zeeCFC With All The Champions

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    Wasn't it along the lines of
    "A defender?"
    "He can play forward too"
     
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  4. HARKER

    HARKER Hall of Famer

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    Thanks zee. Yes, that's what I understand.
    Bolton was questioning taking another defender.......not a bad thing SOS did. :)
     
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  5. Pafloyul

    Pafloyul Club Legend

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    Plowman's the defender to trade out; I happen to think it's bleeding obvious if the need is great enough, even if it hurts in the short term. However, it won't be back to GWS. I don't think Jones has the currency.
     
  6. zeeCFC

    zeeCFC With All The Champions

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    Just watched it again. Was a 2min intense discussion.

    Very happy with Harrison though, I'd be disappointed if we traded him. ASOS and Rowe won't be around much longer and Marchbank hasn't put together a full season yet.
     
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  7. Aphrodite

    Aphrodite Moderator

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    CHANEL BOUTIQUE!

    No.
     
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  8. Farktherest

    Farktherest Norm Smith Medallist

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    Yeah i'm in the camp of keeping them and just find other ways to get mids eg use our draft picks in trades or drafting.

    Thing is we won't even get much in return for any of our defenders except Weitering since he was the no.1 pick. Marchbank would have value but obviously won't be traded since we just got him in. Plowman, Jones & Macreadie are players we wouldn't get much in return for even though they'e been good for us...worth more to us than what other clubs would offer.

    As you said Rowe, ASOS & White will all probably be finished up by the end of 2018 which would leave us with Weitering, Jones, Marchbank, Plowman & Macreadie which is fine.
     
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  9. Farktherest

    Farktherest Norm Smith Medallist

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    Yes very possible given the issues he's having at Freo.

    Given he was a pick 38 originally and is out of contract at most a team will only have to give up a pretty token late pick for him.
     
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  10. Soapy V

    Soapy V Norm Smith Medallist

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    I'm a bit of a fan and if we can get him for a pick over 40 then I would do it. Certainly wouldn't be using an early pick for him
     
  11. btdg

    btdg Club Legend

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    As an interesting point of comparison, here is Carlton's team from towards the end of 2007, compared with today. I reckon there are a lot of parallels.

    2007:
    18-21 yo: Betts, Bentick, Bower, Gibbs, Grigg, Hampson, Jamison, Josh Kennedy, Murphy, Russell, Walker
    21-24 yo: Bannister, Carazzo, Fisher, Simpson, Waite, Wiggins, O'Hailpin, Thornton,
    25-28 yo: Saddington, Scotland, Whitnall, Ackland, Bannister, Houlihan, Fevola,
    29+: Lappin,

    2017:
    18-21 yo: C Curnow, Fisher, Marchbank, Petrevski-Seton, Silvagni, Weitering, Macraedie, McKay, Williamson, Cuningham
    21-24 yo: Pickett, Plowman, Docherty, Cripps, Lamb, Smedts, Boekhurst, Byrne, Graham
    25-28 yo: Gibbs, Casboult, Jones, Kreuzer, Wright, E Curnow
    29+: Murphy, Armfield, Thomas, White, Simpson,

    In both teams, there is a strong core of 18-20yo guys - 11 guys playing regularly in 2007, 10 for us in 2017. Most of those guys looked potentially great in 2007, featured a mix of mids and KP players. Gibbs/Murphy/Grigg vs Petrevski-Seton/Curnow/Cuningham as midfielders (probably a win to 2007). Both had a promising but unproven KP player who looked 3-4 years away (Kennedy/McKay). Both had a zippy small forward (Betts/Fisher). 2017 stronger for KP defenders (Weitering/Macraedie/Marchbank vs Jamison/Bower). Russell/Williamson play the same spot. Walker/Hampson vs Silvagni as the others.

    In both teams, the 21-24yo group was a bit thin, courtesy of the Malthouse/Elliot years. Both contained a ripping half-back flank (Simpson/Docherty) and a future star (Cripps/Waite), as well as a bunch of guys found elsewhere. Thornton/Carazzo/Fisher gave us a useful third defender, midfielder and forward, closely paralleled by Plowman/Pickett/Lamb.

    The 25-28 group had strong talls in both groups: Whitnall/Fev vs Casboult/Kreuzer. Whitnall/Kreuzer have tough injury histories, Fev didn't last long (and neither might Casboult). The mids in the current group - Gibbs + Curnow trump the '07 group of Scotland. Jones/Saddinton are both defenders from other clubs filling a role. Houlihan/Wright fairly similar as hff.

    The current team has a lot more 29+ although only Murphy will really do much beyond this year.

    So, having drawn some parallels, what can we learn from what followed?

    Firstly, in 2007 we went hard chasing a star midfielder elsewhere. Judd helped us rise up the ladder and helped support our young midfielders, but giving up Kennedy was a huge mistake. Similarly, I think giving up Weitering for Kelly would be a problem. Lesson #1 - don't sell the farm for a star midfielder. It's worth it to get a Judd/Kelly, but only in a 1-1 trade, and only if we keep the young KP studs.

    In the 2007 draft, we were shallow after the Judd trade - just pick 1, 36 and 47. Hmmm - right now, we have only pick 1, pick 37 and pick 48. Almost exact. In 2008, we traded out our second round pick for an 'established' ruckman (while ignoring Hampson/Kreuzer/Jacobs) and were agin shallow, taking only picks 6, 40 and 65. In 2009 we traded out Fev for Henderson (special circumstances) but further went shallow in the middle rounds of the draft, giving up picks 11 and 27 (for Brock McLean and as part of the Fev trade). 2010, 2011 were compromised by Gold Coast and GWS. End result - 5 straight years where we drafted 'shallow' - and by 2012, when we hit our peak, we had very little depth. Cue a bunch of injuries, missed finals due to that lack of depth, and the end of the Ratten era. Lesson 2 - keep drafting deep, particularly ensuring we keep hitting the second and third rounds, where you can find solid depth players.

    The 2007 had a string of bad luck, too. Stevens had a freak neck injury that ended his career. Fev blew up at the Brownlow and had to be traded. Waite and Kreuzer had injury worries. In that case, we didn't have the KP players waiting in the wings (having traded Kennedy) to cover those losses, and it really hurt us. Lesson 3 - expect the unexpected. Development won't go as planned, so keep your depth/strength.

    One strength of the 2007 team going forward was rookie list drafting. We have to try and follow this as well. Lesson 4 - Use your rookie list.

    Last lesson - don't panic! In 2012, we panicked when Ratten didn't make finals, and threw in the towel for an established coach who blew the club apart. We have to be patient - lets face it, we probably aren't competing until 2023! But that's where we are right now - so get settled in for the long haul

    Anyway, I just thought that was an interesting comparison to make given what I see area lot of parallels. Be interested to hear what others think in relation to this!
     

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  12. Blue_Fusion

    Blue_Fusion Premiership Player

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    Not for Kelly, we'd have to throw in a pick #10 as well and still probably won't get the job done.
     
  13. btdg

    btdg Club Legend

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    Just to add to my post above, I think our course of action from here needs to be based off the lessons we learned last time.

    First off, in this years draft ,we need to add depth. I'd be looking at something like:
    - Trade pick 1 and 20 to GWS, Kelly to North, picks 3 and 25 to Carlton
    - Offer Kerridge (who I forgot to list above) to Gold Coast for pick 23 (they need a big bodied mid, and have 3 picks in the 20s they won't use). Or similar
    - If Casboult gets a good enough offer to get pick 19 as compensation, let him roll. In that case, trade for Tippett as a salary dump for Sydney to replace him (remember - expect the unexpected. We need that older big/second ruck)
    Then, hit this year's draft with picks 3, 19, 23, 25, 37, 48. 6 hits, but more importantly, 4 hits in the top 25 of a draft I reckon is around 25 players deep...

    Try to get heavily into next year's draft too. If we can move on older guys for future 2nd/3rd round picks, take it. We need at least 2 more years of having 4-5 picks in the top 40. At that point, we'll have around 20 guys aged 23 and under who can be the core of a contending team in 2023+.

    Treat Murphy/Gibbs as our 'Judd' - the guy who helps the young midfielders advance. That means keeping them around. Don't be afraid to use free agency for this role too. Could we get Shiel in 2 years time? Possibly. Keep the cap space free.

    Look for another ruckman in the rookie draft or late. Remember, last time around, the best ruckman we had was on our rookie list the whole time. Alternatively, wait and trade for one - there are always excess ruckmen around who can play first ruck, and right now it is the least important position on the ground, imo.

    Make an effort to keep our mid-tier young guys. Last time, losing Grigg, Hampson, etc really hurt. Cuningham, Silvagni, Macreadie, etc - these are the guys who aren't the stars, but will be good depth when we are competing.

    Last, but not least, don't panic along the way. Last time, we had a young developing coach (Ratten) who made a few mistakes but was ultimately on the right track. AFter we fired him prematurely, he went to Hawthorn and took them to 3 premierships playing basically the same style he created for us. We, instead, hired an old, established coach who alienated a bunch of our developing players and set us back a decade.
     
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  14. HARKER

    HARKER Hall of Famer

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    You may want to re-look at that. :)
     
  15. No1Suspect

    No1Suspect Club Legend

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    Im going to drink a bottle of red and revisit this to see if it makes sense...
     
  16. LordLucifer

    LordLucifer Suspended

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    Dylan Buckley is not going to be given another year, he has been a very generous tenure at the club based on the fact he is a Father-Son choice but that 'Free Ride' ticket has now expired.
     
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  17. AT97

    AT97 Debutant

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    Just emphasizing how crap my lip reading skills are that I could only get the most obvious.
     
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  18. blue healer

    blue healer Club Legend

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    I think if he hasn't come along after a couple more years then his value may have already dropped.
     
  19. Blue_Fusion

    Blue_Fusion Premiership Player

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    what? you don't want to downgrade pick 1 to 3? And pick 20 to 25?
     
  20. Blue_Fusion

    Blue_Fusion Premiership Player

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    Not really, 4 years other clubs will still believe they're capable of getting the best out of him. If we wait 8 years, then his value will drop significantly.
     
  21. Heres Waite

    Heres Waite Club Legend

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    I looked at that for a while.

    I think he means our pick 1 and Norths pick 20 for 3 and 25 to us.

     
  22. KohPhi

    KohPhi Norm Smith Medallist

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    That's the problem with people here, they just want to win EVERY Trade!!

    :p
     
  23. Blue_Fusion

    Blue_Fusion Premiership Player

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    Still an incredibly stupid trade. Difference with pick 1 v 3 we will miss out on Rayner. 20 to 25? I couldn't care less the guy we would've taken at 20 could still be there at 25.
     
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  24. Heres Waite

    Heres Waite Club Legend

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    Agree! I want to keep pick 1 at all costs.
     
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  25. No1Suspect

    No1Suspect Club Legend

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    Still drinking..... no good yet