Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Blue_Fusion]

Maybe. It depends how SOS sees the draft. If he thinks there is a clear number one then sure, he won't trade it. If GWS are keen on Rayner and we like someone else, I can see him extracting value from the pick.

Also, if we have pick 1, North will have pick 2 because Brisbane would've beaten them and therefore leapfrogged into 16th spot.

Rayner is the clear #1. Any later pick and we will not get him.

The way I see it, we either keep pick #1 for Rayner or we trade it for Kelly. Not interested in doing anything else with that pick unless something ridiculous comes on offer but it won't.

 

[ParapMarkets]

After we beat Hawthorn, we'll have pick 4!

Lol, I love your optimism. The last time we beat Hawthorn, you could take your partner out out to dinner for $10 and have enough change for the taxi home.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Rayner is the clear #1. Any later pick and we will not get him.

The way I see it, we either keep pick #1 for Rayner or we trade it for Kelly. Not interested in doing anything else with that pick unless something ridiculous comes on offer but it won't.

Is he though? I'll admit I haven't watched the juniors this year like I have the past few years, but his 11.1 beep test (or whatever it was) is extremely concerning for a pick 1. He looked very impressive in the one game I watched him in but you need to be able to run all day to play AFL. His combine results will be very interesting.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Is he though? I'll admit I haven't watched the juniors this year like I have the past few years, but his 11.1 beep test (or whatever it was) is extremely concerning for a pick 1. He looked very impressive in the one game I watched him in but you need to be able to run all day to play AFL. His combine results will be very interesting.

I wouldn't stress about his endurance. Once we get him on the right program he'll be fitter than ever.

His ability clearly outshines everyone else though imo.

 

[ParapMarkets]

I wouldn't stress about his endurance. Once we get him on the right program he'll be fitter than ever.

His ability clearly outshines everyone else though imo.

I think his attitude will be key. If he is willing to put the work in then his endurance level atm won't be an issue. Cripps tested pretty badly from memory, his desire to get the best out of himself has overcome these challenges. I really hope Rayner is a clear number 1 pick, we need something good to come out of another wooden spoon (apart from the huge growth in our young guys this year).

 

[katmanblue]

This Weitering thing

He is a real boy. I assure you.








We just upgraded his circuits.

 

[katmanblue]

Looks like the Carlton Show has us covered lol. Will defer to them

Booooo

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[Dramoth]

Would anyone trade for Ben Lennon for a 3rd round pick hasn't played many games

I think that would be a big nope... he signed a new multi-year contract last year IIRC.

 

[katmanblue]

Surely we can revive the PSD for
Balic can't we ?

Freo will get something for him. Wont go to psd.

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[Dramoth]

We don't have pick 20. I think what that poster was trying to say was we move down from 1 to 3 and get 25 to do so (getting us back into the 2nd round of the draft). Pick 20 is North Melbourne's pick and would go to GWS to facilitate Kelly going to North. Not saying I agree with it, but that's what I think that poster was trying to say.

If we end up on the bottom, I don't see why we wouldnt just send picks 1 and 18 to GWS for Kelly and **** #Norf.

 

[Kismet]

If we end up on the bottom, I don't see why we wouldnt just send picks 1 and 18 to GWS for Kelly and **** #Norf.

The irony is that North could well end up on the bottom. If they lose to St Kilda (probable) and Brisbane in Brisbane (possible), and we beat Hawthorn (possible) or Sydney in Sydney (highly improbable), then the Shinboners collect the spoon.

Methinks there's much to play out yet for Kelly.

 

[therubbernub]

My Problem with Kreuzer + Phillips.

Matthew Kreuzer is a standout number one ruckman. Definite AA contention and would be a lock if we were a good team.
Andrew Phillips is a potential number one ruckman. He's not quite there yet, may never be, but has an outside shot to be one.

The lowest TOG% you'd bank on a player having on a team, unless they get hurt, is 70% (look at last night's game for example)

Take away the Geelong game (Kreuzer had 51% TOG because of the concussion) and Kreuzer is averaging 86.53 TOG%. If Phillips gives you a minimum expectancy 70% that combines to 156.53% (would likely be higher).

That means that for over half the game Phillips or Kreuzer have to be at either end of the ground. More than likely this would mean KPF.

The problem with this is that neither gives you enough to be one of your two key forwards for over half the game.

Thus, in conclusion, there is room for only one of Kreuzer and Phillips in the Carlton team. Unfortunately for Phillips Kreuzer is the standout and unless he gets injured (touch wood he doesn't) Phillips opportunities will be sparse.

If they cant play forward, put them in the backline - seems to work

 

[djw1952]

I don't think either of those two will ever be A graders
Love to see Kelly in navy next year

With a surplus of defenders I would be off loading from there and say Marc Murphy to reconstitute our midfield
The defender I would be putting up for a trade is jw
Jones is our best lock down defender ( Alex silvagni can help
Rowe I see as finished
Marchbank can do the weitering
Plowman is getting better and better
And the one that I believe is a hybrid defender lock down and intercept and the best of the whole lot potentially is my man in defence Macreadie
I truly think this guy will fill out and be the absolute bees knees defender
Probably needs two to three more years

We can afford to let weitering go because I'm hoping he has enough currency for a straight out swap ( might be wishful)
Kelly is an absolute must to get to the club moving forward
I would also do Marc for another midfielder or package
I just don't see him in plans moving forward
Will lose the captaincy and needs a reset

We will see if SOS agrees with all that in a couple of months...............he obviously thinks Hopper can play, and knows Kelly is a gun......Whitfield is no slouch either..........has played well in the second half of this year.

 

[djw1952]

The irony is that North could well end up on the bottom. If they lose to St Kilda (probable) and Brisbane in Brisbane (possible), and we beat Hawthorn (possible) or Sydney in Sydney (highly improbable), then the Shinboners collect the spoon.

Methinks there's much to play out yet for Kelly.

Carlton has not beaten the haws since moses was a boy, and yet you think we are a chance.........wow what supreme optimism you have!!! With hodge looking for more victims in his second last game our poor kids will be watching his every move and be very nervous indeed........but never say never I suppose.........

 

[Wickzki]

If they cant play forward, put them in the backline - seems to work

I know you kid but I should have implied that I don't believe either have the appropriate skill set to play a KP post other than ruck.

 

[Wickzki]

Would anyone trade for Ben Lennon for a 3rd round pick hasn't played many games

 

[Blue_Fusion]

If we end up on the bottom, I don't see why we wouldnt just send picks 1 and 18 to GWS for Kelly and **** #Norf.

Pick #1 is enough. If we finish last and he nominates us we hold the power. No need to go giving them an additional early pick.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

It sounds bad but pick 1 would be incredible if we are chasing Kelly and Hopper. It completely changes our rebuild imo. We would be able to afford both without giving up Gibbs and all of a sudden we would have midfield. The dream would be pick 1, Cas compo and future second for Kelly and Hopper.

Best 22 next year

Plowman Jones Doc
Bryne Weitering Marchbank
Murphy Gibbs Kelly
SPS Curnow Fisher
Pickett McKay SOJ

Kruezer Cripps Hopper

Bench from
Curnow Wright Simpson Cuningham Williamson Thomas

Handy backup also in ASOS, Rowe, Macreadie, Lamb, Kerridge and Phillips.

There would also be a heap of natural improvement in that side. I would also hope we chase Gaff next season and we would also have another top 5-6 pick which i hope we take a midfielder with. After that we could nearly start filling in the holes.

 

[Blue__Balls]

If we end up on the bottom, I don't see why we wouldnt just send picks 1 and 18 to GWS for Kelly and **** #Norf.

Because the hypothetical being discussed there is that Kelly nominates North Melbourne. If we want to trade down, we'd have a couple of options.

A) Trade Pick 1 to NM for Picks 3 and 20. They can then trade Pick 1 to GWS for Kelly, which gets GWS Rayner.
- Net result for us is that we miss Rayner, but get LDU/Cerra/Dow and a slider like Worpel, Brayshaw or Higgins.

B) Tell GWS that if they accept Pick 3 and change from NM for Kelly, we'll deal for Pick 1. Trade Pick 1 to GWS for Pick 3, Matt Kennedy and Matt Flynn.
- Net result for us is that we miss Rayner, but get LDU/Cerra/Dow, Kennedy and Flynn.

Either option would be a good result if Kelly nominates North Melbourne, and by helping those two sides get their deal done, we can come out slightly ahead ourselves. Same principle as the trade with Hawthorn last year - they needed help getting O'Meara, and we got three quality players out of helping them.

 

[Matty411]

From the Bluemour thread.

HE's soft and he handballs way too much.

We need warriors. Toughnut midfielders

Vehemently disagree. Touk is a hardnut leader and can play inside - just hasn't had much chop with the Suns' players. Would walk into our starting midfield and add character and leadership to the group. Right age, too.

Now is the time to strike with Miller as he'll start to reach his peak soon and value go up.

If we got Pick 18 for Levi, I wouldn't hesitate in moving that on for Touk. Suns might see that as fair value, too. Perhaps with a later pick our way.

 

[zeeCFC]

If Kelly leaves GWS I'm sure it'll only be for us.

Can't see us wanting him and losing out to North.

 

[Unknown Origin]

It sounds bad but pick 1 would be incredible if we are chasing Kelly and Hopper. It completely changes our rebuild imo. We would be able to afford both without giving up Gibbs and all of a sudden we would have midfield. The dream would be pick 1, Cas compo and future second for Kelly and Hopper.

Best 22 next year

Plowman Jones Doc
Bryne Weitering Marchbank
Murphy Gibbs Kelly
SPS Curnow Fisher
Pickett McKay SOJ

Kruezer Cripps Hopper

Bench from
Curnow Wright Simpson Cuningham Williamson Thomas

Handy backup also in ASOS, Rowe, Macreadie, Lamb, Kerridge and Phillips.

There would also be a heap of natural improvement in that side. I would also hope we chase Gaff next season and we would also have another top 5-6 pick which i hope we take a midfielder with. After that we could nearly start filling in the holes.

I'd take Whitfield over Hopper.

I don't see what all the fuss is about with Jacob

 

[HBF]

Please not Lennon

I don't want him either, but if we did go after him there's no way I would trade from him. Richmond will probably delist him at the end of the year.

 

[HBF]

Harry Taylor was the most influential player on the field today.

No Selwood, no Duncan.

A midfield consisting of Dangerfield and Guthrie.

I think I'll keep Weitering, thanks.

As Mal (I think?) says, it's a lot easier to find gun mids than gun KPPs.

Taylor was amazing on Saturday and completely towelled up Rance.
Who knows if JW will ever be as good as Taylor, but as a 19 year old with now 40 games under his belt he can only improve from here.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I'd take Whitfield over Hopper.

I don't see what all the fuss is about with Jacob

So would I but they won't let him go