Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[F_therest]

Agree! I want to keep pick 1 at all costs.

I'd do pick 1 for Kelly.

 

[Teagueeee15]

Still an incredibly stupid trade. Difference with pick 1 v 3 we will miss out on Rayner. 20 to 25? I couldn't care less the guy we would've taken at 20 could still be there at 25.

We don't have pick 20. I think what that poster was trying to say was we move down from 1 to 3 and get 25 to do so (getting us back into the 2nd round of the draft). Pick 20 is North Melbourne's pick and would go to GWS to facilitate Kelly going to North. Not saying I agree with it, but that's what I think that poster was trying to say.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

We don't have pick 20. I think what that poster was trying to say was we move down from 1 to 3 and get 25 to do so (getting us back into the 2nd round of the draft). Pick 20 is North Melbourne's pick and would go to GWS to facilitate Kelly going to North. Not saying I agree with it, but that's what I think that poster was trying to say.

Possibly. But I still wouldn't do that

 

[btdg]

I meant we trade pick 1, and get back 3 and 25.

I've been looking at the draft and I honestly reckon picks 1-3 are about even. All 3 are mids, and we could fit any of them. I think GWS really want Rayner, but for us Cerra may be the best fit...

Plus, we don't have a second rounder right now, and my whole argument is we need the depth - we can't just bring in 1 good player this year (whether that is Rayner or Kelly).

If others can see a way to get multiple 2nd round picks, though, I'd love to hear it. I think there is great value 20-25 in this draft, same as there was great value 45-65 last year

 

[TooBlue14]

I think if he hasn't come along after a couple more years then his value may have already dropped.

He was excellent on Saturday. Back to his best. I'd guess that he's playing free of whatever niggle has been hampering him lately. The last two weeks he's been great actually. If he'd played all year like this we'd be stoked. Losing marchbank is obviously allowing him to play his best position. We definitely have too many tall defenders.

 

[TooBlue14]

I looked at that for a while.

I think he means our pick 1 and Norths pick 20 for 3 and 25 to us.

I'd almost just keep Rayner and leave Kelly to north. If gws want pick 1 that badly it's Kelly+ for the pick. I'm pretty sure we'd be very happy to tell GWS to * off if they want more.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Josh Kelly is a better player right now then any Pick 1 in a decade:

For reference:

2016: Andrew McGrath
2015: Jacob Weitering
2014: Paddy McCartin
2013: Tom Boyd
2012: Lachie Whitfield
2011: Jon Patton
2010: David Swallow
2009: Tom Scully
2008: Jack Watts
2007: Matthew Kreuzer

There is no strong line of reasoning why he would not be worth trading that selection for.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I meant we trade pick 1, and get back 3 and 25.

I've been looking at the draft and I honestly reckon picks 1-3 are about even. All 3 are mids, and we could fit any of them. I think GWS really want Rayner, but for us Cerra may be the best fit...

Plus, we don't have a second rounder right now, and my whole argument is we need the depth - we can't just bring in 1 good player this year (whether that is Rayner or Kelly).

If others can see a way to get multiple 2nd round picks, though, I'd love to hear it. I think there is great value 20-25 in this draft, same as there was great value 45-65 last year

I'd want to see us take this route:

Pick #1 >> Kelly or Rayner (Prefer Kelly but Rayner would be a great get as well)
Gibbs >> Pick #10 + #35
Priority pick >> #18 (We surely get this pick and I don't care about 'looking weak' we definitely need to ask for it)
Casboult >> end of 2nd round compo (Likely pick #36 band 4 compo)
Pick #36+#37 >> #24 (GC have 3 2nd rounders in a row, they may part with one)
Pick #54 >> Balic

So potentially, we end up with:

#1 + #10 + #18 + #24 + Balic OR
Kelly + #10 + #18 + #24 + Balic

This way we either bring in 2 top 10 picks (one of which being pick#1) plus 3 solid depth players (Pick #18 may even become a best 22 player potentially) or we bring in Kelly, still have a top 10 pick and still have the 3 depth players.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Josh Kelly is a better player right now then any Pick 1 in a decade:

For reference:

2016: Andrew McGrath
2015: Jacob Weitering
2014: Paddy McCartin
2013: Tom Boyd
2012: Lachie Whitfield
2011: Jon Patton
2010: David Swallow
2009: Tom Scully
2008: Jack Watts
2007: Matthew Kreuzer

There is no strong line of reasoning why he would not be worth trading that selection for.

Main reason you would is salary cap management. For us its probs not a factor but for someone like geelong you wouldnt be able to do it.

 

[F_therest]

Josh Kelly is a better player right now then any Pick 1 in a decade:

For reference:

2016: Andrew McGrath
2015: Jacob Weitering
2014: Paddy McCartin
2013: Tom Boyd
2012: Lachie Whitfield
2011: Jon Patton
2010: David Swallow
2009: Tom Scully
2008: Jack Watts
2007: Matthew Kreuzer

There is no strong line of reasoning why he would not be worth trading that selection for.

If we can do pick 1 for Kelly straight swap we should absolutely go for it imo...and surely that's as good an offer as GWS could hope to get. Don't think any team has traded pick 1 since Freo got burned trading it to Hawthorn who drafted Luke Hodge.

We get the gun mid we need who is ready to go but still young enough to play with us for 10 years. Giants get the damaging half forward player they need to replace Stevie J and Deledio in Rayner.

 

[goreds]

If we can do pick 1 for Kelly straight swap we should absolutely go for it imo...and surely that's as good an offer as GWS could hope to get. Don't think any team has traded pick 1 since Freo got burned trading it to Hawthorn who drafted Luke Hodge.

We get the gun mid we need who is ready to go but still young enough to play with us for 10 years. Giants get the damaging half forward player they need to replace Stevie J and Deledio in Rayner.

Great sales pitch there...

Don't think Rayner would ever get with in 10 goals of those two!

 

[Mondyboy]

I'd take Kelly for a pick 1 swap. He oozes class and is precisely what we are desperate for. Would I like Rayner - you bet, but I'll take the young mid just reaching his peak any day of the week.


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[Juddernaut08]

As an interesting point of comparison, here is Carlton's team from towards the end of 2007, compared with today. I reckon there are a lot of parallels.

2007:
18-21 yo: Betts, Bentick, Bower, Gibbs, Grigg, Hampson, Jamison, Josh Kennedy, Murphy, Russell, Walker
21-24 yo: Bannister, Carazzo, Fisher, Simpson, Waite, Wiggins, O'Hailpin, Thornton,
25-28 yo: Saddington, Scotland, Whitnall, Ackland, Bannister, Houlihan, Fevola,
29+: Lappin,

2017:
18-21 yo: C Curnow, Fisher, Marchbank, Petrevski-Seton, Silvagni, Weitering, Macraedie, McKay, Williamson, Cuningham
21-24 yo: Pickett, Plowman, Docherty, Cripps, Lamb, Smedts, Boekhurst, Byrne, Graham
25-28 yo: Gibbs, Casboult, Jones, Kreuzer, Wright, E Curnow
29+: Murphy, Armfield, Thomas, White, Simpson,

In both teams, there is a strong core of 18-20yo guys - 11 guys playing regularly in 2007, 10 for us in 2017. Most of those guys looked potentially great in 2007, featured a mix of mids and KP players. Gibbs/Murphy/Grigg vs Petrevski-Seton/Curnow/Cuningham as midfielders (probably a win to 2007). Both had a promising but unproven KP player who looked 3-4 years away (Kennedy/McKay). Both had a zippy small forward (Betts/Fisher). 2017 stronger for KP defenders (Weitering/Macraedie/Marchbank vs Jamison/Bower). Russell/Williamson play the same spot. Walker/Hampson vs Silvagni as the others.

In both teams, the 21-24yo group was a bit thin, courtesy of the Malthouse/Elliot years. Both contained a ripping half-back flank (Simpson/Docherty) and a future star (Cripps/Waite), as well as a bunch of guys found elsewhere. Thornton/Carazzo/Fisher gave us a useful third defender, midfielder and forward, closely paralleled by Plowman/Pickett/Lamb.

The 25-28 group had strong talls in both groups: Whitnall/Fev vs Casboult/Kreuzer. Whitnall/Kreuzer have tough injury histories, Fev didn't last long (and neither might Casboult). The mids in the current group - Gibbs + Curnow trump the '07 group of Scotland. Jones/Saddinton are both defenders from other clubs filling a role. Houlihan/Wright fairly similar as hff.

The current team has a lot more 29+ although only Murphy will really do much beyond this year.

So, having drawn some parallels, what can we learn from what followed?

Firstly, in 2007 we went hard chasing a star midfielder elsewhere. Judd helped us rise up the ladder and helped support our young midfielders, but giving up Kennedy was a huge mistake. Similarly, I think giving up Weitering for Kelly would be a problem. Lesson #1 - don't sell the farm for a star midfielder. It's worth it to get a Judd/Kelly, but only in a 1-1 trade, and only if we keep the young KP studs.

In the 2007 draft, we were shallow after the Judd trade - just pick 1, 36 and 47. Hmmm - right now, we have only pick 1, pick 37 and pick 48. Almost exact. In 2008, we traded out our second round pick for an 'established' ruckman (while ignoring Hampson/Kreuzer/Jacobs) and were agin shallow, taking only picks 6, 40 and 65. In 2009 we traded out Fev for Henderson (special circumstances) but further went shallow in the middle rounds of the draft, giving up picks 11 and 27 (for Brock McLean and as part of the Fev trade). 2010, 2011 were compromised by Gold Coast and GWS. End result - 5 straight years where we drafted 'shallow' - and by 2012, when we hit our peak, we had very little depth. Cue a bunch of injuries, missed finals due to that lack of depth, and the end of the Ratten era. Lesson 2 - keep drafting deep, particularly ensuring we keep hitting the second and third rounds, where you can find solid depth players.

The 2007 had a string of bad luck, too. Stevens had a freak neck injury that ended his career. Fev blew up at the Brownlow and had to be traded. Waite and Kreuzer had injury worries. In that case, we didn't have the KP players waiting in the wings (having traded Kennedy) to cover those losses, and it really hurt us. Lesson 3 - expect the unexpected. Development won't go as planned, so keep your depth/strength.

One strength of the 2007 team going forward was rookie list drafting. We have to try and follow this as well. Lesson 4 - Use your rookie list.

Last lesson - don't panic! In 2012, we panicked when Ratten didn't make finals, and threw in the towel for an established coach who blew the club apart. We have to be patient - lets face it, we probably aren't competing until 2023! But that's where we are right now - so get settled in for the long haul

Anyway, I just thought that was an interesting comparison to make given what I see area lot of parallels. Be interested to hear what others think in relation to this!

Lol wtf lets face it wait tip 2023 to compete? Id rather blow my brains out

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Wasn't it along the lines of
"A defender?"
"He can play forward too"

'That deal with the Hawks looking good now.
'Macreadie was good in the car wash last week. Much prefers Melbourne than Sydney too, Giants won't match. Barracked for us as a kid. Smokey for Round 1 I reckon.'
"Can he intercept and run of his man and spoil? Put his body on the line? Has he got good kicking skills and speed?" asked Bolta.
'Absolutely. In my top 10.
'Still reckon all the clubs are looking the wrong way. My next 3 are Polson, Williamson and Kerr.'
"If you get them all, I shout you coffee until the next Draft."

 

[Bluebag13]

Would there be in conceivable way we could get Kelly and keep pick 1 or at minimum keep a pick in the top 12 or so?


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[Juddernaut08]

Would there be in conceivable way we could get Kelly and keep pick 1 or at minimum keep a pick in the top 12 or so?


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Yes. Use other picks from next year or gibbs or cas

 

[Zlatan]

Would there be in conceivable way we could get Kelly and keep pick 1 or at minimum keep a pick in the top 12 or so?


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Pick 1/2 goes to GWS for Kelly 100%.

However, if we trade Gibbs to Adelaide, that opens the door for us back into the first round. Where in the first round possibly depends on what they get for Lever.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Pick 1/2 goes to GWS for Kelly 100%.

However, if we trade Gibbs to Adelaide, that opens the door for us back into the first round. Where in the first round possibly depends on what they get for Lever or McGovern.

 

[Azul]

Josh Kelly is a better player right now then any Pick 1 in a decade:

We currently have pick 2 and plenty of good #2s still playing AFL in Petracca, Josh Kelly, Coniglio, Nic Nat, Cotchin, Daisy Thomas, Roughy, Wells.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Maybe I'm dreaming but I think pick 1 should go close to sealing Kelly if he were to nominate us. We won't be trading Gibbs unless the deal is good, getting quality players is difficult, we shouldn't be offloading him unless the compensation is very good. A midfield of Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy, Kelly, Hopper and SPS would have serious depth and quality.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Agree! I want to keep pick 1 at all costs.

I actually think there is a good chance we downgrade pick 1 to pick pick 3 if Kelly were to go to North. The payday would have to be better than pick 25 though.

 

[Azul]

I actually think there is a good chance we downgrade pick 1 to pick pick 3 if Kelly were to go to North. The payday would have to be better than pick 25 though.

chuck in Harry McKay's evil twin.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I actually think there is a good chance we downgrade pick 1 to pick pick 3 if Kelly were to go to North. The payday would have to be better than pick 25 though.

Nonsense! If Kelly nominates Norf we let Norf trade their pick and we keep pick #1!

 

[ParapMarkets]

Nonsense! If Kelly nominates Norf we let Norf trade their pick and we keep pick #1!

Maybe. It depends how SOS sees the draft. If he thinks there is a clear number one then sure, he won't trade it. If GWS are keen on Rayner and we like someone else, I can see him extracting value from the pick.

Also, if we have pick 1, North will have pick 2 because Brisbane would've beaten them and therefore leapfrogged into 16th spot.

 

[Azul]

Also, if we have pick 1, North will have pick 2 because Brisbane would've beaten them and therefore leapfrogged into 16th spot.

After we beat Hawthorn, we'll have pick 4!