Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Funk]

Agree although I reckon McLuggage is a real chance to head home at the end of next year

Really Soapy V - why so??

 

[Neadsy83]

Agree plus another 4-5 great draft picks by SOS [emoji41]

What picks are you guys thinking for these three?
Hopper - 2018 2nd
Balic - 3rd
Miles - 4th?

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Cripps was pick #13 in 2013 draft. Yet I see a 0 in the elite column for pick #13.

That pretty much nullifies that person's opinion on elite players for me.

Work out your own numbers then. Maybe he feels Cripps is not elite until he becomes an AA or figures in awards or becomes a top 10 midfielder or something. He is on the cusp of the drafts recorded because it takes time to become elite.

 

[Soapy V]

What picks are you guys thinking for these three?
Hopper - 2018 2nd
Balic - 3rd
Miles - 4th?

Possibly.

Balic for Boekhurst or 4th rounder
Hopper for 2nd rounder 2018 or Casboult pick?
Miles 4th

So many scenarios possible plus money issues. I really have no idea what SOS will do. I am sure he will try and get picks in somehow

 

[Soapy V]

Really Soapy V - why so??

Not sure of current status but made it clear before draft wanted to stay in Vic and was very unhappy when Lions picked him. I wouldn't think it would take much to entice him home

 

[Funk]

I shall apologise for the long post now!

Whilst we have had a remarkable year in the development of some of our youth and lesser rated mature players such as Jones, C.Curnow (incredible), SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Pickett, Williamson, J.Silvagni, ASOS (solid), McKay, Macreadie & Lamb (passable), less has been spoken about how our second-tier players have progressed over the season.

Players I conclude that make up this field are those with over 8 games at VFL level who have struggled to hold their spot in the seniors or haven't made an appearance at all.

Smedts: 8 matches in the AFL where he averaged only 10.4 disposals. In his 8 VFL games he made it into the bests 4 times, playing serviceable on the wing and half forward. Unfortunately his game suffered terribly when asked to play an inside role. Consistency a problem so I see him depth at best but certainly not in the senior 22.

Palmer: Only 1 game at AFL level and it was a shocker. 12 disposal and 1 shot of goal which went out on the full. In the VFL he has made it into the Northern bests 5 times in his 14 games this season and has been a solid accumulator of the pill. He will be lucky not to be de-listed this year and I expect him to play out the majority if not all of next season in the reserves.

Boekhorst: 6 matches at AFL level with an average of 16.2 disposal. I have been particularly impressed by Blaine in the last two games and his VFL form this year has been outstanding. Played 9 VFL games and was in the bests 5 times showing he is a solid contributor, and thus has probably saved his career.

Polson: Not a lot to say about this guy with only 1 game at AFL level where he had the role of running with Sam Powell-Pepper. Added 10 VFL games to his resume and although his form has been highly inconsistent he is showing signs that he's learning. Seems to be playing a negating role on some tough opposition which hopefully will hold him in good steed with his progression.

Sheehan: Struggled at AFL level in his 2 games where he averaged 9.5 disposals. In the VFL though he has played pretty well in most of his 12 games. After an injury plagued career thus far it was promising to see him attack the ball aggressively and stand tall when he needed to. Hope he is offered another year but I can see that his spot might be in jeopardy.

Corringe: Injured all the time and I dare say that his time is up. Will be delisted at seasons end after some very ordinary VFL and development league performances.

Buckley: 1 game in the seniors for a return of 8 disposals. Hasn't fared much better in his 14 matches at VFL level although has done reasonably well defensively whilst also providing some rebound off half back. Torn on this guy but think he may be apart of the cull at seasons end.

Gallucci: Hasn't been able to break into the seniors but has showed some good things at VFL level. Needs to be more consistent and cleaner in his ball use but I can see him being retained for another year.

JGM: Unfortunately for us he seems like a bust. Struggled even in the development league and its clear he lacks aggression and constantly finds himself out of position. I cannot see how he will be retained with the mass of other key defenders that we currently posses.

Jaksch: Not 1 AFL game this season should be of major concern and whilst he is being used at both ends, he still seems a long way off the higher level. In an optimistic approach he did some good moments both in his time up forward and defence for Northern, having games where he kicked 5.2 (Casey) and 4.0 (Geelong). I would like him to be retained and think he will if not solely for depth and his versatility.

Lebois: Crippled by a quad injury at the beginning of the season Lebois has slowly started to build a base towards the end of the VFL season. Very low possession count in his games, so he needs to find more of the pill but is good at harassing opposition defenders and also can cut sides open with his plays into the forward line. I look forward to seeing him next year with another pre-season under his belt.

Sumner: Very underwhelming in both his 4 games at AFL level and his 11 in the VFL. Needs to work on many facets of his game such as working harder at the ball and improving not only his inside and under but also his outside part of his game. Not sure given his year how he stays on the list and therefore may be culled.

Korcheck: The 208cm big man has played 13 games in the VFL this year and whilst not being consistently dominant has showed positive signs including a 43 hitouts game against Casey. He needs to work on his athleticism as well as his consistency and seems to often find it hard to adapt to certain conditions. More likely than not he will still be on the rookie list next year due to our lack of depth in this area.

Kerr: Played 10 games thus far in the VFL and while not being dominant he has shown us a bit in stages and an unrelenting work ethic. Will build on this year and hopefully will get senior time in 2018.

Cheers for reading

Thanks for taking the time to post this HalAlaric

Think you've pretty much nailed it - very little to disagree with!

LeBois is the mystery to me.

He was rated by some "experts" as the best player left for the rookie draft last year.

Obviously he is small and slightly built and the quad injury must have seriously derailed his pre-season and I haven't seen much to justify this.


But does he:

have the commitment?
have the tricks?
have the resilience?

to make it at AFL level?

He looked promising in one of the pre-season games and we will be so much better as a team if he can fire up as a small forward.

Fingers crossed!!!

 

[Soapy V]

Thanks for taking the time to post this HalAlaric

Think you've pretty much nailed it - very little to disagree with!

LeBois is the mystery to me.

He was rated by some "experts" as the best player left for the rookie draft last year.

Obviously he is small and slightly built and the quad injury must have seriously derailed his pre-season and I haven't seen much to justify this.


But does he:

have the commitment?
have the tricks?
have the resilience?

to make it at AFL level?

He looked promising in one of the pre-season games and we will be so much better as a team if he can fire up as a small forward.

Fingers crossed!!!

He's fine Funk. Been a tough first year for him but he has come through it well. Watch out 2018

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Saw an interesting list on the main board in relation to the value of a draft pick.



So when we talk about #4 and #10 for Kelly, we are really talking 4 elite players from those picks out of 20 selections. Seems a no brainer to take the established gun doesn't it? We do like the mystery box though.

This is why stats can be useless and quite often dangerous. Cripps might not be rated elite - i dont personally care about the rating specifically of good vs elite. But I'd take two Cripps over one Kelly when building a 22. So it could be said it is a no brainer to not give two picks for Kelly.

Two players are harder to stop. Both are needs. The real winner is GWS who in three years have lost Kelly but have a new Taranto and Cripps running around. How to build a neverending GWS dynasty.

Let's not get carried away and overpay. Better to spread talent by numbers.

 

[Funk]

I will give them this- they sure know how to pick elite young talent. All the more impressive given the players that have chosen to leave- our own Docherty being one of them. It could get scary if their coaching matches their potential

Listen to Chris Fagan on SEN yesterday morning - sounds like a really pragmatic, positive and level headed bloke who will get the best out of their kids.

Sounds like a bloke you'd love to be coached by.

Beams says "players don't want the season to end - unlike recent years" = quite a telling remark!

 

[Funk]

Why miles... Why on a long contract too...

Obvious Lance - ex GWS so SOS ought to know him well.

 

[bluemahogany]

Miles does not excite me at all, not what we need in the middle

 

[Funk]

Miles does not excite me at all, not what we need in the middle

Why not?

 

[Soapy V]

Miles does not excite me at all, not what we need in the middle

In and under player who wins a lot of contested ball. Something we lack apart from Cripps. If Gibbs goes, Simpson Armfield Palmer Thomas etc all retire another mature hard body won't hurt

 

[RudyBlue]

Seems a no brainer to take the established gun doesn't it?

Definitely. It's amazing how some can't see how trading for an elite talent his age is the LOW risk move, provided we don't blow the cap down the line with his contract.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

People can adjust their own figures as to who is elite or not. I think the point is that you are very unlikely to get 2 elite players out of the picks you give up for Kelly. In fact you would do very well to get one.

I can see an argument both ways however.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Possibly.

Balic for Boekhurst or 4th rounder
Hopper for 2nd rounder 2018 or Casboult pick?
Miles 4th

So many scenarios possible plus money issues. I really have no idea what SOS will do. I am sure he will try and get picks in somehow

To date Boekhorst has shown more than Balic.

Balic was a draft slider and has had problems over there which ensured he didn't get on the park. I guess we'd be looking at knowing Boek's ceiling vs an unknown. If it is a mistake it would be one like Grigg vs Collins.

 

[Soapy V]

To date Boekhorst has shown more than Balic.

Balic was a draft slider and has had problems over there which ensured he didn't get on the park. I guess we'd be looking at knowing Boek's ceiling vs an unknown. If it is a mistake it would be one like Grigg vs Collins.

Difference now is SOS is making the decisions

 

[La Dispute]

Miles'd be a Moneyball pickup. Great contested ball winner, but not especially skilled in other areas. Would only cost a low-ish draft pick

 

[bluemahogany]

In and under player who wins a lot of contested ball. Something we lack apart from Cripps. If Gibbs goes, Simpson Armfield Palmer Thomas etc all retire another mature hard body won't hurt

Wouldn't be playing he, Cripps, Curnow and Hopper in the same team, that's assuming Gibbs is traded, he has no upside, just very meat and potatoes

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Work out your own numbers then. Maybe he feels Cripps is not elite until he becomes an AA or figures in awards or becomes a top 10 midfielder or something. He is on the cusp of the drafts recorded because it takes time to become elite.

Don't care what his criteria is, Cripps is an elite player. He was #1 in the AFL for clearances and #2 for contested possessions last year. That is elite. He's also won a B&F.

Anyway I don't need to do the numbers to figure out that drafting an elite player is a very hard thing to do, it's common sense.

The more I think about it, the more I'm happy to give up pick #4+#10 from this year's draft for Kelly. But I don't want us to trade our 2018 first. I still stand by my thoughts that the other bottom teams will use the picks mostly on kpp leaving the best mids still available to us. Rankine looks to be a really talented one, I'd hate for us to miss out on the opportunity.

 

[Soapy V]

Wouldn't be playing he, Cripps, Curnow and Hopper in the same team, that's assuming Gibbs is traded, he has no upside, just very meat and potatoes

Up to SOS

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Don't care what his criteria is, Cripps is an elite player. He was #1 in the AFL for clearances and #2 for contested possessions last year. That is elite. He's also won a B&F.

Anyway I don't need to do the numbers to figure out that drafting an elite player is a very hard thing to do, it's common sense.

The more I think about it, the more I'm happy to give up pick #4+#10 from this year's draft for Kelly. But I don't want us to trade our 2018 first. I still stand by my thoughts that the other bottom teams will use the picks mostly on kpp leaving the best mids still available to us. Rankine looks to be a really talented one, I'd hate for us to miss out on the opportunity.

Doesn't matter how we get to the same conclusion, as long as we do. Let's hope we can get somewhere near 10 for Gibbs if he goes. Then hope GWS take the deal.

The other thing Kelly (together with Cripps and Bolts) will do is increase our appeal to other players.

We must add to our depth as well of course.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Doesn't matter how we get to the same conclusion, as long as we do. Let's hope we can get somewhere near 10 for Gibbs if he goes. Then hope GWS take the deal.

The other thing Kelly (together with Cripps and Bolts) will do is increase our appeal to other players.

We must add to our depth as well of course.

If we put #4 + #10 on the table then I highly doubt they'll knock it back. The problem is getting a pick around #10 from Adelaide. Gibbs being contracted will come at a higher premium it just depends how bad they want him. That's why I'm tipping that if they just miss out on the flag they'll see Gibbs as the missing piece and the pressure to get the trade done will be on.

 

[reubsblues]

I was thinking our backline on the wkend is probably the best combination of players we've had all yr
Plowman Jones Byrne
Docherty Weitering Simpson/Williamson
Im struggling to find a spot for marchbank
Does anyone agree

 

[Neadsy83]

I was thinking our backline on the wkend is probably the best combination of players we've had all yr
Plowman Jones Byrne
Docherty Weitering Simpson/Williamson
Im struggling to find a spot for marchbank
Does anyone agree

Maybe we should play him forward during our practice matches for next season. Then Charlie could spend a bit more time in the midfield.