Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[HARKER]

This is how I see it as well.
2018 will be much the same as this year.
2019 I can see us starting to work our way up the ladder.
2020 Will be the earliest that we'll start challenging for finals.

Challenging for finals in 2020?
It will want to be at least one year earlier, unless something drastic comes about to change the landscape.

Further development in the younger players.
The quality of player we'll be chasing this and next year via trade.
The quality of player we may be chasing via FA next year.

This year will be telling as if we reel in our targets, we won't be jogging along towards finals involvement.....we may be sprinting.

 

[big_sav]

Think he signed early this year for 2 more years after this one. So not until the end of the 2019 season

You are correct. My bad

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/out_of_contract_players?year=2017

Full list here if anyone wants to have a look at each year

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Challenging for finals in 2020?
It will want to be at least one year earlier, unless something drastic comes about to change the landscape.

Further development in the younger players.
The quality of player we'll be chasing this and next year via trade.
The quality of player we may be chasing via FA next year.

This year will be telling as if we reel in our targets, we won't be jogging along towards finals involvement.....we may be sprinting.

All trade and draft periods are important. This one coming I feel is the most important as to whether we chase a premiership in 2020/2021 or just play finals from 2019 onwards to make up the numbers

 

[Toddski]

Plowman is a tricky one.

I love his disposal by foot and his one-on-one aerial defence. However, at times he has brain fades and commits errors in crucial parts of the ground. Mind you, he is still young and Marchbank/Weiters also make mistakes occasionally.

I do think he is suited to play on a third tall more so than the gun small forwards of the competition. But we have so many slightly better options to use. This makes his place in the team shaky IMO.

I met him out once and he isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree. However, he's a good kid and has a bit of cheek which I like. I really hope he continues to develop and hold his spot but it wouldn't surprise me if he becomes a back-up option as others grow and mature (Macreadie).

 

[Arr0w]

This is how I see it as well.
2018 will be much the same as this year.
2019 I can see us starting to work our way up the ladder.
2020 Will be the earliest that we'll start challenging for finals.

I agree, 2020 is when I believe we are a finals contender, with our window opening up a year later

 

[BJuddy]

The thing with drafting another KPF is, even if McKay comes on, and BSOS is a prodigy, we can still get a decent return on investment for a KPF should we end up overstocked.

IE. Take Brander this year, take BSOS next year. McKay has a few years' head start, and should be playing seniors while the others develop. If 2 of the three come good, we have a quality pair of tall forwards in 5 years' time. If all three of them do, we either adjust the gameplan to accommodate, or we trade one of our AFL standard KPF's for a high draft pick to help sustain our list quality moving forward, or trade them for a quality player who helps us win a flag.

The thing is, by the time all of McKay, Brander and BSOS are of an age to be playing seniors together, it's 2022 and the whole landscape has changed.

We certainly shouldn't be knocking back a quality KPF this year because we have McKay and hope to have Ben Silvagni. If there's a mid available at our pick who we think is more important to us, that's fine - just don't get sucked into thinking that McKay and BSOS will have us covered.

I get what your saying but we could have the best forwards in the league but it wont matter if the delivery is not coming in. If its not getting down there or the entries are subpar then they are all but useless. IMO we need to be seriously looking at good users of the footy in the Midfield this year, and continue to develop fwds.

Get a few mids that can kick some goals, i think Murphy may spend some time down forward over the next few years, Cripps is another.

KPF are valuable on the trade market, but they take time, 4-5 years from now to get a decent return on investment which is fine if we wanna rebuild for the next decade, which i don't want and don't see being the case.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Went about trying to figure out why Scrimshaw was being described as solid in defence week after week, had a look at last week's NEAFL team sheet and he's playing a key defensive post along with Brooksby. Predictable ******* Eade and Clayton.

Maybe SOS can rescue him at the end of next year?

That's it, slide to our pick

I imagine they have been watching players like Marchbank but more so Lever and trying to get him into that roll, which isn't a waste

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

In one of DOC interview, he said the club aware of the blame Plowman gets from small forwards goals but said that:
1. it is a team defence, not one single person fault
2. Plowman useably the one closed to the small forwards when they kick for goal as he is the one to react and get back first

I really love listen to DOC interviews, so clear of team directions, instructions, structures, where team heading etc...

Although I agree with it, statements like that are the new cliché

 

[Wily trout]

I get what your saying but we could have the best forwards in the league but it wont matter if the delivery is not coming in. If its not getting down there or the entries are subpar then they are all but useless. IMO we need to be seriously looking at good users of the footy in the Midfield this year, and continue to develop fwds.

Get a few mids that can kick some goals, i think Murphy may spend some time down forward over the next few years, Cripps is another.

KPF are valuable on the trade market, but they take time, 4-5 years from now to get a decent return on investment which is fine if we wanna rebuild for the next decade, which i don't want and don't see being the case.

Just on that note, I feel like our forward entries, generally speaking, have become a lot better thought out over the last 5/6 weeks or so . We still get the long bomb on top of the forward's head as well, but we seem to hold onto the ball a bit longer, looking for a shorter pass or good option much more consistently??

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Just on that note, I feel like our forward entries, generally speaking, have become a lot better thought out over the last 5/6 weeks or so . We still get the long bomb on top of the forward's head as well, but we seem to hold onto the ball a bit longer, looking for a shorter pass or good option much more consistently??

Agree with this. We have seemed more composed and less rushed so we have had more time to find and create options. I'm not really sure what has brought this on but I think it could be structural

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Plowman is a tricky one.

I love his disposal by foot and his one-on-one aerial defence. However, at times he has brain fades and commits errors in crucial parts of the ground. Mind you, he is still young and Marchbank/Weiters also make mistakes occasionally.

I do think he is suited to play on a third tall more so than the gun small forwards of the competition. But we have so many slightly better options to use. This makes his place in the team shaky IMO.

I met him out once and he isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree. However, he's a good kid and has a bit of cheek which I like. I really hope he continues to develop and hold his spot but it wouldn't surprise me if he becomes a back-up option as others grow and mature (Macreadie).

If you mean he makes errors by foot I actually like that in a young defender. It's difficult to know the line between a clever kick & a silly kick unless you cross it a whole bunch of times, much like Docherty did earlier in his career

 

[HBF]

Challenging for finals in 2020?
It will want to be at least one year earlier, unless something drastic comes about to change the landscape.

Further development in the younger players.
The quality of player we'll be chasing this and next year via trade.
The quality of player we may be chasing via FA next year.

This year will be telling as if we reel in our targets, we won't be jogging along towards finals involvement.....we may be sprinting.

If we make some key FA signings then maybe we can challenge for finals in 2019, but if we stick to the draft route then I think 2020 is more realistic.

 

[Jeremias]

I don't see why we can't push for finals as early as next year.

 

[Arr0w]

I don't see why we can't push for finals as early as next year.

Sure we will push, but our list would have change dramatically to be playing in finals. All the FA/trade options that are being talked about, would have to be acquired for us to be challenging for finals next year

 

[zeeCFC]

Pick 3ish to Richmond for their pick 14ish and 2018 1st

2017 pick 14ish and Carlton+Richmond 2018 1sts (3 first rounders) for Josh Kelly and Jacob Hopper.

Tiges get Naish and a top pick while Giants get 3 firsts, two of which are in a supposed strong draft.

Blaine Boekhorst for Harley Balic because why not

 

[Wily trout]

Agree with this. We have seemed more composed and less rushed so we have had more time to find and create options. I'm not really sure what has brought this on but I think it could be structural

Natural growth and confidence from the young forwards. Confidence in them from team mates and coaching/ tactics I suppose.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Sure we will push, but our list would have change dramatically to be playing in finals. All the FA/trade options that are being talked about, would have to be acquired for us to be challenging for finals next year

Not really.

Look at Melbourne this year - they're entrenched in the 8 despite missing the best ruckman in the comp for most of the season, missing their best key forward for a decent chunk of games, and they're being dragged over the line a lot of the time by young players such as Viney and Oliver.

If we retain Gibbs and Casboult, and bring in one of Kelly or Hopper, we're a better side than we are this year. Not only because we bring in some quality players, but because our young guys have another preseason to build their strength and skills, and our coaches have another preseason to further develop our gameplan and ability to adjust during matches.

Next year's ladder:

Top tier (definite finalists) - GWS, Geelong, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney
Second tier (fighting for a top 8 spot) - Richmond, West Coast, St Kilda, WB, Essendon, Freo
Bottom tier (work to be done) - Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Brisbane

With natural improvement, I'd have us in that middle group. Richmond likely to be in the top group if they can retain Martin. Means we're fighting for two spots with West Coast, St Kilda, WB, Essendon and Freo.

Don't mind our chances. Not locking us in by any stretch of the imagination, but I think we'll be aiming to be thereabouts come Round 20 next year.

 

[HARKER]

If we make some key FA signings then maybe we can challenge for finals in 2019, but if we stick to the draft route then I think 2020 is more realistic.

We don't know for sure whichever way, but even at our current growth rate, we may be better than quite a few teams that beat us this year.
I'll be disappointed if we can't put away the likes of St.Kilda, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Richmond next year.

Wouldn't be banking on a finals spot next year and it will depend on whether the seeds we've sewn take hold, but we have to be in contention for a top 8 spot by 2019.........doesn't mean it will happen, but the club may be disappointed should it not come about........and rightly so.

 

[Jeremias]

Sure we will push, but our list would have change dramatically to be playing in finals. All the FA/trade options that are being talked about, would have to be acquired for us to be challenging for finals next year

I don't agree.

The competition is more even now than ever before, and I expect that to be the case next year also.

I think I'm fairly realistic when assessing where we're at, and I can honestly say there aren't many games remaining this year in which I don't give us a genuine chance of taking the 4 points.

We're becoming a pretty difficult team to play against and we're only going to improve on the back of another preseason into this group + another draft and trade period.

As Blue__Balls said above - we're not a lock by any stretch of the imagination, but I give us a very good chance of pushing into the 8 as soon as next season.

 

[AB_Blue]

I think that if things fall in our favour in the off season and the growth of our youth continues we should be a realistic chance to finish 8th - 12th next season

2019 we could be 6th-10th and

2020 4th - 8th

Takes in to account growth, recruiting and a good injury run

 

[HARKER]

We may finish last forever but have a look at each team in the competition and consider the pros and cons and then pad out a best case scenario for each of them.

It wouldn't take a lot to leapfrog plenty of teams and pretty quickly.

We have gaps that require filling but we're not really losing much to retirement for some years yet.

 

[Arr0w]

We don't know for sure whichever way, but even at our current growth rate, we may be better than quite a few teams that beat us this year.
I'll be disappointed if we can't put away the likes of St.Kilda, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Richmond next year.

Wouldn't be banking on a finals spot next year and it will depend on whether the seeds we've sewn take hold, but we have to be in contention for a top 8 spot by 2019.........doesn't mean it will happen, but the club may be disappointed should it not come about........and rightly so.

I don't agree.

The competition is more even now than ever before, and I expect that to be the case next year also.

I think I'm fairly realistic when assessing where we're at, and I can honestly say there aren't many games remaining this year in which I don't give us a genuine chance of taking the 4 points.

We're becoming a pretty difficult team to play against and we're only going to improve on the back of another preseason into this group + another draft and trade period.

As Blue__Balls said above - we're not a lock by any stretch of the imagination, but I give us a very good chance of pushing into the 8 as soon as next season.

Not saying it is impossible.

We will improve, but so will other sides above us, as you suggested, Jeremias the competition is more even and it will continue next year. Adding a Hopper will certainly help, but trades are not exclusive to us. I won't add Kelly as I see that us highly unlikely at this stage. That being the case, I do believe we will start to add attacking layers to our game plan, as Melbourne did a couple of years ago, but I still believe we will be bottom 6 again next year. Looking forward to reassessing this at the end of the year, as well as after the trade/draft period.

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

I get what your saying but we could have the best forwards in the league but it wont matter if the delivery is not coming in. If its not getting down there or the entries are subpar then they are all but useless. IMO we need to be seriously looking at good users of the footy in the Midfield this year, and continue to develop fwds.

Get a few mids that can kick some goals, i think Murphy may spend some time down forward over the next few years, Cripps is another.

KPF are valuable on the trade market, but they take time, 4-5 years from now to get a decent return on investment which is fine if we wanna rebuild for the next decade, which i don't want and don't see being the case.

Murphy forward for possible goal assists? He even shirks having a crack at goals

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I don't see why we can't push for finals as early as next year.

Depends what we do this offseason.

If we lose Gibbs for picks and don't get Kelly then we'll be approx where we finish this year.

If we do get Kelly, I can see us around 7-12.

Kelly and keep Gibbs, a little higher. 6th max but our lowest I reckon 10th.

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

We may finish last forever but have a look at each team in the competition and consider the pros and cons and then pad out a best case scenario for each of them.

It wouldn't take a lot to leapfrog plenty of teams and pretty quickly.

We have gaps that require filling but we're not really losing much to retirement for some years yet.

What you can't take into account are the unknowns.. Development etc
How many people would have picked the dogs last year?