Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Funk]

Some clubs deal with each other much more easily than others and have a good relationship when it comes to trade period . Id think from what weve seen SOS is a good operator and is building good relationships with other clubs . Geelong and Sydney have always been reasonable when it comes to trade period i think Hawthorn is another . Essendon on the other hand we know are usually unrealistic in their demands . Wouldnt be in the best interest of clubs to screw sos over he may be around for a long time .

Tigers will now be good to deal with as well.

Balme is a very smart operator and will get deals done quite quickly.

Note how early the Vickery, Prestia, Caddy and Nankervis deals were all done last year.

Expect Levi deal to be knocked over very quickly if Tigers are in play.

Knowing how Balme hates the AFL it would not surprise me if he works with SOS to set up Levi's initial contract to give Blues maximum compo - he knows SOS would "scratch his back" if the roles were reversed.

Levi's final contract can be renegotiated later - remember the "confusion" over how many years Hawks signed Vickery for!!

 

[F_therest]

Only thing is if we nabbed both Kelly and Hopper and Gibbs stayed no way we are finishing too low next year .
So more like pick 1/2 pick 8-10 and levi compo pick 18-20 . Still overs though .

If push came to shove and there's 5 minutes to go in the trade period and GWS aren't budging...to be honest I'd do it.

We are just in such desperate need for quality young midfielders to take the load off the senior players and kids in their first year.

It's not far off...rating Kelly at about pick 2 and 19 then Hopper at pick 8.

At the end of the day it would almost instantly fix our midfield and draft picks are still a gamble that could easily be busts.

It would also signal Carlton as a team on the rise and a destination club once again if we nabbed both.

 

[KohPhi]

Also, I have been told we have tabled (pick 1/2, Our 2018 1st & Levi compo pick for Kelly and Whitfield/Hopper. If GWS budge, expect this done in a heartbeat otherwise we may have to fight this out to the end

Pick 1 or 2 plus pick 18 plus most likely a top 5 pick in 2018 for Kelly and one of the others!
Sorry but my opinion is we are being bent over.
If it's for Kelly, Whitfield AND Hopper, then that's worth considering.

 

[BlueTongue]

How is targeting a 22yo a quick fix?

Because it's targeting a ready made player rather than going to the draft???

 

[F_therest]

I'd give up pick 1 and 2018 1st+compo for Whitfield and Kelly in a heartbeat. Two A grade mids guaranteed.

Same. 2 young guns who were pick 1 and 2 themselves who are ready to go entering their prime.

Also need to consider there doesn't seem to be a standout midfielder at pick 2 for us to take this year...meaning we would be more willing to trade it.

If we keep Gibbs...Murphy, Gibbs, Kelly, Whitfield, Cripps, Curnow, sps, fisher, Cuningham...moist.

 

[Robertio]

Two guaranteed 10+ year A-graders/elite (1 already top 5 in the comp) for 2 first rounders and a late first/early second.... and we keep Gibbs? That isn't overs, that's realistic.

I'm with you Joe.

 

[reubsblues]

You think ?

Imagine Whitfield, Hopper and Kelly in the middle with Gibbs and Murphy alongside the Cunninghams, Seton et al...

Thats midfield fixed in one swoop !

Me like!

 

[Iamcarlton]

Tigers will now be good to deal with as well.

Balme is a very smart operator and will get deals done quite quickly.

Note how early the Vickery, Prestia, Caddy and Nankervis deals were all done last year.

Expect Levi deal to be knocked over very quickly if Tigers are in play.

Knowing how Balme hates the AFL it would not surprise me if he works with SOS to set up Levi's initial contract to give Blues maximum compo - he knows SOS would "scratch his back" if the roles were reversed.

Levi's final contract can be renegotiated later - remember the "confusion" over how many years Hawks signed Vickery for!!

It benefits to build good relationships doesnt it . Weve done well out of dealing with Richmond of late besides Collins of course lets hope that continues if Cas is indeed gone .

 

[Jimmae]

It's only for two of the three, not all of them. If it was for all three I'd be stoked with that trade. But it's not and it's overs IMO.

Even if it was all three, I'd want another player we can put in our 22 at that price given Hopper and Kelly are out of contract.

Whitfield is overrated and closer to a salary dump than a top 10 pick.

 

[bluekidjoe]

It's 'or' not 'and'

 

[Iamcarlton]

If push came to shove and there's 5 minutes to go in the trade period and GWS aren't budging...to be honest I'd do it.

We are just in such desperate need for quality young midfielders to take the load off the senior players and kids in their first year.

It's not far off...rating Kelly at about pick 2 and 19 then Hopper at pick 8.

At the end of the day it would almost instantly fix our midfield and draft picks are still a gamble that could easily be busts.

It would also signal Carlton as a team on the rise and a destination club once again if we nabbed both.

Agree entirely and love that last point about destination club and team on the rise .
I also think that deal we did with Hawthorn in a way would/could make up a little if we payed overs in the end on a deal like Kelly/Hopper . Getting those 3 kids for that 1 pick is gold .

 

[FlowersByIrene]

If we finish last priority pick discussions should 100% be on the table. **** being NOBLE the AFL are corrupt, as proven by their incessant pushing of the drug cheats on us - see James Hird's presentation of the norm smith.

They have no morals. We shouldnt concern ourselves with them either. Demand the pick

 

[rp84]

Wouldnt say Hopper or Whitfield are guaranteed A graders but yeah its not that far away i suppose and we do have a pressing need

Whitfield is essentially an A grader. Look at his numbers. If he kicked another .5 goals per game he'd be one of the best going around.

All 3 for that deal. Done.

Whitfield and Kelly for that deal with their unused 2nd and 3rd rounders coming back..also done.

Wouldn't do it for hopper as he is much more of an unknown (though certainly tracking well)

 

[rp84]

The only thing that holds me back a little is the temptation to tell rayner to work on his endurance until the camp. If he runs a 14 beep, he's the clear number one. Would instantly improve our fwd line and if he UPS his endurance, shows he can become a mid at the next level

 

[Iamcarlton]

Whitfield is essentially an A grader. Look at his numbers. If he kicked another .5 goals per game he'd be one of the best going around.

All 3 for that deal. Done.

Whitfield and Kelly for that deal with their unused 2nd and 3rd rounders coming back..also done.

Wouldn't do it for hopper as he is much more of an unknown (though certainly tracking well)

Think you might be right could be some other later picks involved . Main thing is if this rumour is true and it nets us Kelly and 1 of Whitfield or Hopper personally id prefer Hopper then we will all be extremely happy i would think . Even if we pay slightly overs

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Kelly and Hopper and (????) = Pick #1, 2018 1st and Levi Compo

Questions is.. what sweetens the deal for us? GWS 2nd round? M. Kennedy? Perryman?

 

[rp84]

Kelly and Hopper and (????) = Pick #1, 2018 1st and Levi Compo

Questions is.. what sweetens the deal for us? GWS 2nd round? M. Kennedy? Perryman?

Would think we can get Kennedy and their second as we will likely take griffens salary.

 

[Wickzki]

see James Hird's presentation of the norm smith.

To be fair they've gone in Norm Smith winning order. Shannon Grant presented it last year to JJ as he won it in '99. Hird won it in 2000.

 

[HARKER]

That type deal isn't completely unfair, but just don't think the club will allow us to trade out high 2 firsts and then some.
If it was for Kelly, Hopper & Whitfield though??

If all the cards to play out for us, I still think there will be a player involved in the deal. We'll see.

 

[Matty411]

What many of us seems to be forgetting is the small matter of GWS letting 2 (or 3) highly rated, young midfielders go at once. After already losing Adams and Treloar in recent years, they won't let this slide - although if SOS has a massive brain fart and gives us what would be 3 x first rounders (no way in hell) then GWS may bite. Just cannot see them letting go of more than 1 of Kelly, Hopper or Whitfield.

 

[JrDr]

It's not a bad deal if you look at the points value.

Kelly +Hopper + 4161
Kelly +Whitfield + 5517

Picks 1(2017) + 8(2018) + 19(Compo) = 5499
Picks 2(2017) + 8(2018) + 20(Compo) = 4980

May require a little sweetener in return

 

[rp84]

That type deal isn't completely unfair, but just don't think the club will allow us to trade out high 2 firsts and then some.
If it was for Kelly, Hopper & Whitfield though??

If all the cards to play out for us, I still think there will be a player involved in the deal. We'll see.

It's really not unfair. Slightly overs, yes. Just need to look at the players available at those likely picks vs the benefits/pitfalls of getting 23yos in.

Does it raise our ladder position too quickly? (Therefore potentially robbing us of greater depth in the long term)
Vs risk of drafting unknown quantities and potential to stay rooted to the bottom for a couple more years.

Can the club cope with another 3yrs of bottom 4?

Huge decisions. No easy answer. Positives and negatives in both camps.

It's certainly a fork in the road.

 

[F_therest]

Even if it was all three, I'd want another player we can put in our 22 at that price given Hopper and Kelly are out of contract.

Whitfield is overrated and closer to a salary dump than a top 10 pick.

That last part about Whitfield is way off.

Actually the first part is as well. We definitely win the trade if we got all 3 at that price...not that gws would let all 3 go at once.

 

[HARKER]

It's not a bad deal if you look at the points value.
Kelly +Hopper + 4161 Kelly +Whitfield + 5517
Picks 1(2017) + 8(2018) + 19(Compo) = 5499 Picks 2(2017) + 8(2018) + 20(Compo) = 4980
May require a little sweetener in return

Lobb and we're talking.

 

[Blue since 72]

I'd take the deal. Club wants to play finals sooner than later.

Two quality mids which we would have targeted over the next two drafts anyway who can play rnd 1 next year versus two draftees who may or may not be game ready spread over the next two drafts.

Pretty sure Bolts would want to be pushing towards the 8 next year and sitting inside it in 2019.