Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[cookie monster]

If a first had to be let go, would posters here prefer it to be this years or next?

Trading next year's first would definitely accelerate our rebuild... GWS won't take it though. We are no chance of finishing bottom 4 if we add Kelly and a Rayner

 

[ShanDog]

If a first had to be let go, would posters here prefer it to be this years or next?

This year. I know we may bounce up the ladder a bit in 2018 and pick 1/2 gives more bargaining power than pick 6 or 7, but the purported 2018 draft class should negate that. Use 2017 to trade in the top talent and just use the picks we have further down the line, trying our best to conjure some more under 30 if we can.

It seems some of the last few big names we want to get in should be via free agency from next year onwards. If we can use some early picks in 2018 AND get a name like Shiel/Lynch via FA, then we are set for a really good run.

 

[HARKER]

Trading next year's first would definitely accelerate our rebuild... GWS won't take it though. We are no chance of finishing bottom 4 if we add Kelly and a Rayner

I don't think they'd buy it either, but it was more of a hypothetical.

I feel the majority would sooner hang onto next years first because of the talent that may be there, but I'd still take care of matters now and plan for next year thereafter.

 

[Arr0w]

If a first had to be let go, would posters here prefer it to be this years or next?

This year

 

[Arr0w]

I still get the feeling that Gibbs will be traded, especially if the Crows miss out on a flag, which IMO will be to our benefit long term

 

[HARKER]

I still get the feeling that Gibbs will be traded, especially if the Crows miss out on a flag, which IMO will be to our benefit long term

Haven't felt the 'vibe' about Gibbs leaving now for some weeks.

Even if it suited SOS for a Gibbs trade now, how do we open up that discussion without possibly causing some hurt?

 

[Soapy V]

I still get the feeling that Gibbs will be traded, especially if the Crows miss out on a flag, which IMO will be to our benefit long term

Especially if they lose Cameron Lever & McGovern. They will have the room to go after Gibbs and importantly need him.

 

[Arr0w]

Haven't felt the 'vibe' about Gibbs leaving now for some weeks.

Even if it suited SOS for a Gibbs trade now, how do we open up that discussion without possibly causing some hurt?

Gibbs, his manager and or the Crows will do that for us

 

[Space Cadet]

If a first had to be let go, would posters here prefer it to be this years or next?

Next year's easily.
Reduces the spread of ages and saves a year of player development for a talented mid.
We need players whose peak years overlap with Cripps*.

*Cripps and Kelly (edit)

 

[Cutz]

No it's not. They couldn't be farther apart. Best 22 should have around 12 mids. Terrible strawman attempt.


That's a pretty terrible saying. Sandilands is a great footballer but 22 of him would be easily beaten by an U18s side.


Not all that likely. But it's highly likely he'll be at least a good footballer

Well who even knows what McKay is going to turn into.. Thats the thing with kids.. We don't know his ceiling.. We try and guess but no one knows..

Could end up being the next Lynch.

Might end up being an average footballer

There's no exact science to it..

My 'guess' is this 200 cm key position forward is going to be a dead set gun..

Just wait till he puts on muscle and gains some confidence..

On SM-G935F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Cutz]

If a first had to be let go, would posters here prefer it to be this years or next?

This year for me Harks

On SM-G935F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Blue__Balls]

Given MS3's latest rumour, it's interesting to think about how we could trade without currency from Gibbs.

Pick 1 should get Kelly outright as it appears they are pretty keen on Rayner.

SOS will push for pick 2 outright, but we probably have to throw in a swap of picks (say 2018 2nds or 2017 2nds if Casboult nets us band 3).

If we can lure Kelly and Hopper, I think pick 1 and pick ~20 would be ideal but GWS would probably want 2017/18 1st rounders (maybe something back).

If we have pick 2, we could angle for something like 2, 20 and a 2018 2nd for the pair. Potentially 20 and a 2018 2nd could be packaged into another 1st rounder via another club.

Interesting times.

Would come down to whether or not Brisbane want Rayner.

If they do, then nothing we add to the deal makes any difference to GWS as they'll miss their man anyway.

On the other hand, if Brisbane don't want Rayner, they can position themselves to do a little trading of their own - Pick 1 for Pick 2 and a later pick or player from GWS after we complete the Kelly trade.

If GWS can secure Pick 1 from Brisbane without giving up another valued asset (and really, any extra pick or player is a win for Brisbane if they don't want Rayner anyway) then they'd have no reason not to trade Kelly for Pick 2 straight up.

 

[HARKER]

This may be the wrong way to look at it and of course there are many variables, but....

1. By holding onto this years first, we know exactly what we'll get and have 12 months of development put into that player.
2. Next year who knows? Pick 1.....Pick 10?
3. Hanging onto this years first, assures of a good trade/draft period in '17
4. If we know that we're a good chance for Lynch and with the knowledge BSOS is coming to us, we have a good draft/trade period in '18 also.

 

[Tushay]

Doubt whether the Crows winning or losing matters re Gibbs.

If they don't win, they'll want him. If they do win, they'll recognise him as being a weapon for a back to back tilt - like North and Colbert after 99.

Plus, if they are having another crack, the discussions would be going on now, and if they're smart they'd be carrying on those discussions with Carlton and Gibbs.

 

[Wily trout]

Well who even knows what McKay is going to turn into.. Thats the thing with kids.. We don't know his ceiling.. We try and guess but no one knows..

Could end up being the next Lynch.

Might end up being an average footballer

There's no exact science to it..

My 'guess' is this 200 cm key position forward is going to be a dead set gun..

Just wait till he puts on muscle and gains some confidence..

On SM-G935F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Already averaging 1.5 goals a game

 

[Mr_Plow]

Prefer picking Rayner and trading away the 2018 1st.

Looking at an 8 year age difference between Lynch, Shiel and the kid we take with our 1st round pick in 2018.

That's starting to get a little wide for my liking.

Clustering players within 3-5 years of each other with a sprinkling of older elite FAs is the way to go.

 

[therubbernub]

Prefer picking Rayner and trading away the 2018 1st.

Looking at an 8 year age difference between Lynch, Shiel and the kid we take with our 1st round pick in 2018.

That's starting to get a little wide for my liking.

Clustering players within 3-5 years of each other with a sprinkling of older elite FAs is the way to go.

The problem with that thory is the peak age of the positions that you are comparing.

 

[goreds]

If a first had to be let go, would posters here prefer it to be this years or next?

This years by a mile...

 

[Jimmae]

If a first had to be let go, would posters here prefer it to be this years or next?

This year

OK, let's say it's going to be #2, who would you pick? Personally, I'd go with LDU.

Now let's say next year, we wind up just outside the 8, and it's #8. What kind of prospects do we secure by waiting a year?

I know at the pointy end it looks like the King twins, Lukosius and Rankine, but who can we expect at the lower end of the top 10? Yes it's a year out and a lot of things can happen, but what is the talk?

While my questions aren't rhetorical, my key point here is that we probably won't have a top 5 draft pick, so unless we plan on trading up next year (and no one will budge from that top 5 easily) we might be better off getting a bite of the cherry now if our pick is a step down from that quality.

 

[Arr0w]

OK, let's say it's going to be #2, who would you pick? Personally, I'd go with LDU.

Now let's say next year, we wind up just outside the 8, and it's #8. What kind of prospects do we secure by waiting a year?

I know at the pointy end it looks like the King twins, Lukosius and Rankine, but who can we expect at the lower end of the top 10? Yes it's a year out and a lot of things can happen, but what is the talk?

So much to play out, if we secure Kelly but lose Gibbs, i can make a strong argument that we will still finish bottom 4 next year, despite the growth of the kids

 

[Jimmae]

So much to play out, if we secure Kelly but lose Gibbs, i can make a strong argument that we will still finish bottom 4 next year, despite the growth of the kids

I can make a strong argument that we won't, and you didn't answer the direct questions posed.

My argument for:

1. Plowman, SPS', Charlie, SOS, Weitering, Marchbank, Boekhorst, Pickett, Cuningham and Williamson's current fitness levels, and what they can eke out of another pre-season.

2. A fit Cripps, E.Curnow and Byrne to come back in and compliment Kreuzer, Murphy, Docherty, Kelly, Simpson, Wright, Thomas, Kerridge and the aforementioned.

3. Harry McKay & Liam Jones

4. A support cast of A.Silvagni, Rowe, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Lamb, Phillips and maybe three or four of Sumner, Smedts, Palmer, Graham, Buckley and Graham.

I'm pretty happy with the top 30 of our list, and there's some decent chances in that bottom 15. That number is probably going to grow to 34-35 after the off-season changes, at which point it's a very strong nucleus for a push up the ladder, and it will be a 2-year process to make a real dent in the competition.

Anyway, pick 8 in 2018: who's your guy?

 

[TBellicious]

The things I would do to see Chris Yarran back in the navy blue...

 

[Jimmae]

The things I would do to see Chris Yarran back in the navy blue...

Sounds like you might need Chris to council you

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

If a first had to be let go, would posters here prefer it to be this years or next?

If it's pick 1 then next seasons if not then this seasons.

 

[Arr0w]

I can make a strong argument that we won't, and you didn't answer the direct questions posed.

My argument for:

1. Plowman, SPS', Charlie, SOS, Weitering, Marchbank, Boekhorst, Pickett, Cuningham and Williamson's current fitness levels, and what they can eke out of another pre-season.

2. A fit Cripps, E.Curnow and Byrne to come back in and compliment Kreuzer, Murphy, Docherty, Kelly, Simpson, Wright, Thomas, Kerridge and the aforementioned.

3. Harry McKay & Liam Jones

4. A support cast of A.Silvagni, Rowe, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Lamb, Phillips and maybe three or four of Sumner, Smedts, Palmer, Graham, Buckley and Graham.

I'm pretty happy with the top 30 of our list, and there's some decent chances in that bottom 15. That number is probably going to grow to 34-35 after the off-season changes, at which point it's a very strong nucleus for a push up the ladder, and it will be a 2-year process to make a real dent in the competition.

Anyway, pick 8 in 2018: who's your guy?

Sorry Jim you lost me at Boekhorst

You also don't account for average number of injuries and players having down years, like Weitering is having this year. The possible deterioration of players like Simpson. If we gain Kelly and lose Gibbs, we will be bottom 4 next year, even if we keep Gibbs, the possible improvement in the win/loss will be marginal

We are still 2 trade/draft periods from the nucleus of our next premeirship tilt core group.

No recruiter would have the top 10 pegged down this year, let alone next year.

If Kelly is gettable this year, use this year's pick