Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[DangerousD]

With hopper and Kelly out of contract there is no way they can keep them in their cap so a nice neat package of 2 early picks (one defiantly being top 3) might be the best deal they can get for them.

They love these 2 kids and i think will do everything they can to keep them both. I can see them letting go a few others that will be a bit more realistic.
I think to have any chance of landing those two boys we would have to offer 3X1st rounders. But it is hard to say how much extra value it will be that our first this year should be top3.

 

[DangerousD]

Just wounding get Idea of what everyone's preference between brander and and fogherty

Its only April and way too early to make a call on either. A lot can change in 6 months. Brodie was touted as a number 1 pick this time last year and fell to 8 or so. There might be someone better come seasons end.

 

[Weiterbot23]

They love these 2 kids and i think will do everything they can to keep them both. I can see them letting go a few others that will be a bit more realistic.
I think to have any chance of landing those two boys we would have to offer 3X1st rounders. But it is hard to say how much extra value it will be that our first this year should be top3.

Who would they let go?

Shiel, Whitfield?

Can't keep them all, especially when Kelly is getting offered 1mil and Hopper probably 500

 

[Foucault1989]

Offer our first this year and next year for Kelly and hopper?

Trade Gibbs to Adelaide to get back into the first round and draft best available?

I'd do this in a heartbeat but I don't think it is going to happen. I suspect if GWS are going to lose top end young talent while they are in a premiership window they might want more senior players rather than just draft picks.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Its only April and way too early to make a call on either. A lot can change in 6 months. Brodie was touted as a number 1 pick this time last year and fell to 8 or so. There might be someone better come seasons end.

This time last year Macreadie was a concensus top 3 pick.


How good for us that proved to be probably accurate. Even thp we got him for 40 odd

 

[Weiterbot23]

I'd do this in a heartbeat but I don't think it is going to happen. I suspect if GWS are going to lose top end young talent while they are in a premiership window they might want more senior players rather than just draft picks.

I dunno if they could afford senior players as their cap would be extremely tight.

Another option If mummy goes down again, could be to trade them Kreuzer and pay his salary for someone like hopper. If mummy is out they are a 6 goal a game worse side, Kreuzer would be ideal for them.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I'd do it.

-There is little chance that a top 3 pick will be as good a Kelly (a former pick 2)
-Hopper is a bull of a mid, you'd be stoked with a top 5 pick that showed as much promise as him
-first pick in 2018 may be of less value considering BOSOS
-Kelly and hopper are right amongst our age group and apparently it's in fashion to have players come through in groups age wise
-Gives us 2 quailiy mids (an inside and outside) helping our weakest area
-Trading Gibbs gets us back into the first round

Build round Cripps, Kelly, Hopper, SPS for future midfield.

I would certainly do it for Kelly and Hopper, however I think the chances of Kelly coming to Carlton are ... Buckleys.
For both of them, I think the only way we could get the deal done is to do the Gibbs trade first and have our 2017 first, Adelaide's 2017 first and our 2018 first, and then maybe we get a GWS third rounder back.
The point in the whole exercise for me is that this is what we should pitch 2 first round picks for, and certainly not for a Schache.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I dunno if they could afford senior players as their cap would be extremely tight.

Another option If mummy goes down again, could be to trade them Kreuzer and pay his salary for someone like hopper. If mummy is out they are a 6 goal a game worse side, Kreuzer would be ideal for them.

Almost, but as Kreuzer is out of contract, we cannot pay his salary. If we re-contract him and trade him to GWS, it might work, but the FA compensation might be better than what GWS offer. If we get a FA ourselves, the FA compensation might cancel.
Gibbs with 2 years to go, we could 'trade salary cap space' as part of the deal.

 

[Soapy V]

Interesting what we will do with this "money" we have to recruit. At the end of 2017 our options should look like this

Docherty Weitering Plowman
Macreadie Marchbank Williamson (Sheehan Byrne Rowe Silvagni Simpson G-Mac)

Kruezer Curnow Murphy
SPS Cripps Fisher (Cuningham Polson Charlie)

Wright McKay Pickett
LeBois Phillips Silvagni (Jaksch Sumner Gallucci Kerr)

Int: ?

Depth: Palmer Kerridge Smedts (That's 34 players)

Defence looks set and is talented with options
Midfield lacks real depth, quality ball use and some leg speed
Forward line has options but another tall would be good

Says to me the target needs to be midfielders and quality ones (they can also play anywhere). One or two through FA and then another 5-6 through the draft is still vital and early picks are still needed. Pick 1-3 and a first rounder for Gibbs will help. Can't trade them.

 

[Weiterbot23]

I would certainly do it for Kelly and Hopper, however I think the chances of Kelly coming to Carlton are ... Buckleys.
For both of them, I think the only way we could get the deal done is to do the Gibbs trade first and have our 2017 first, Adelaide's 2017 first and our 2018 first, and then maybe we get a GWS third rounder back.
The point in the whole exercise for me is that this is what we should pitch 2 first round picks for, and certainly not for a Schache.

I hear what your saying in terms of value (our 2017 + 2018 first not being enough). But if they can't fit them in the salary cap what better deal could they get?

High picks would be all they'd be interested in, and who can offer as high a picks as we can?

No doubt 10 Victorian clubs will be throwing cash at Kelly and hopper, but can then offer a top 3 (maybe 1) draft pick plus a likely top 5 the next year.

It solves a lot of headaches for GWS in one deal and gives them high picks that looks after their future and most importantly fit into their cap.

 

[DangerousD]

Who would they let go?

Shiel, Whitfield?

Can't keep them all, especially when Kelly is getting offered 1mil and Hopper probably 500

No idea to be honest, as the season goes on we will see who is getting stuck in the reserves or who is in and out of the side. But someone like Devon Smith i see as expendable to their list, Whitfield could be overtaken also. Himmelberg was someone i was interested in his draft year although i only saw his highlight reel. He has played a handful of games but will struggle as long as Deledio, Johnson, Smith and Greene are their.

 

[DangerousD]

This time last year Macreadie was a concensus top 3 pick.


How good for us that proved to be probably accurate. Even thp we got him for 40 odd

These are the picks that set a good draft scout apart from a great one. Hopefully more gold like this in the future.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I'd do this in a heartbeat but I don't think it is going to happen. I suspect if GWS are going to lose top end young talent while they are in a premiership window they might want more senior players rather than just draft picks.

GWS will lose some talent, but I don't think they will happily lose Best 22 players. Marchbank who was injured and on the fringes of Best 22 they drove a hard bargain for, with Pickett a bonus for us coming off a long ankle injury lay off. So, expect players not getting much Senior games to be available, and the replaceable 'bottom 6' of the Best 22 perhaps.
The differences are (1) GWS gets draft picks and players for their 'cast offs' and we don't since SOS' 2015 trade clean out, and (2) GWS get the option over a few academy players each year, Setterfield, etc., and these are players that other clubs want, while we wait for the drip feed of good father-son talent ...

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Interesting what we will do with this "money" we have to recruit. At the end of 2017 our options should look like this

Docherty Weitering Plowman
Macreadie Marchbank Williamson (Sheehan Byrne Rowe Silvagni Simpson G-Mac)

Kruezer Curnow Murphy
SPS Cripps Fisher (Cuningham Polson Charlie)

Wright McKay Pickett
LeBois Phillips Silvagni (Jaksch Sumner Gallucci)

Int: ?

Depth: Palmer Kerridge Smedts (That's 33 players)

Defence looks set and is talented with options
Midfield lacks real depth, quality ball use and some leg speed
Forward line has options but another tall would be good

Says to me the target needs to be midfielders and quality ones (they can also play anywhere). One or two through FA and then another 5-6 through the draft is still vital and early picks are still needed. Pick 1-3 and a first rounder for Gibbs will help. Can't trade them.

I like your work Soapy and I agree with your conclusion of 5-6 draftees, and 1-2 midfielders through FA. And the high draft picks we should keep which probably means we forego a Kelly or a Hopper for another couple of years (when GC and GWS players become eligible as FAs ...)

Your team and depth players counts 4 rookies: Sheehan, JGM, Le Bois and Gallucci. Do you see us upgrading Sheehan, JGM and Gallucci and retaining Le Bois as a second year rookie?

Your team does not include Lamb who was an out with injury for our Round 1 team, or Kerr (I think you have done a really good job btw, I don't agree, as you will see below, that we will retain some players you count in the 33).

IMO, we could easily delist 8-10 players and lose another couple to trades / FA / retirement. Here goes (confined to senior list players):

Thomas, Jones, Jaksch, Boekhorst, Gorringe, Buckley, and if they don't retire, Armfield and White I predict will not be offered a contract for Season 2018. That is 8. Graham could make a ninth but has certainly made out his case at Northern Blues so far to be given another contract so not counting him.

Simpson could retire but I anticipate that he will play on so not counting him.

Gibbs could well be traded.

Kreuzer and Casboult are the two that could also go to other clubs, with Kreuzer possibly gaining FA compensation and Casboult not. If we take a FA or two (and I think we will have to), then any FA compensation for Kreuzer will cancel.

So could be 6 draftees, 2 rookie upgrades (see how JGM develops as the year goes on), 1-2 FAs and whatever player might come our way if the Gibbs deal is back on.

Certainly need midfielders, and rucks in the above scenario if we lose / delist Kreuzer, Gorringe, Casboult and we don't persist with Korcheck.

I would do this in one, hopefully last, clean out at the end of Season 2017. Perhaps offer 1 year contracts if we don't see much better in the available FAs or DFAs ... so 1 year contracts were offered to Casboult, Buckley and Graham at the end of last season (I really like it that SOS / Bolts do this).

 

[Jeremias]

Appreciate you taking on the challenge Jeremias

The question asked in two ways are highlighted below.

I look forward to your reply.

1. Do you agree that a good sign that our list is improving is that Rowe is squeezed out?

Potentially, but I absolutely do not believe he has to be squeezed out for us to improve, or be seen to be improving. Every club has good solid mature role players - he's playing a role for us now & I think he's capable of continuing to do so over the next couple of years.

2. So when you are looking at our 22, who do you see dropping out in the next year or 2 to make way for the kids coming through?

From the 22 named for today?

- Thomas
- White
- Casboult
- Simpson

Rowe, E Curnow, Gibbs and Kreuzer I'd have as possibilities.

 

[Soapy V]

Your team and depth players counts 4 rookies: Sheehan, JGM, Le Bois and Gallucci. Do you see us upgrading Sheehan, JGM and Gallucci and retaining Le Bois as a second year rookie?

Your team does not include Lamb who was an out with injury for our Round 1 team, or Kerr (I think you have done a really good job btw, I don't agree, as you will see below, that we will retain some players you count in the 33).

If he can stay fit I would upgrade Sheehan. JGM will be interesting. Definitely improved this season. Lebois can stay another year if needed and Gallucci was re-rookied this year. Does this mean he gets 2 years?

Don't think Lamb is up to it. Kerr i have as a forward. Needs time. As for others 1 or 2 might stay but I believe as kids step up they will go straight past a number of players and expose their frailties. Still expect 8-10 changes

 

[Soapy V]

IMO, we could easily delist 8-10 players and lose another couple to trades / FA / retirement. Here goes (confined to senior list players):

Thomas, Jones, Jaksch, Boekhorst, Gorringe, Buckley, and if they don't retire, Armfield and White I predict will not be offered a contract for Season 2018. That is 8. Graham could make a ninth but has certainly made out his case at Northern Blues so far to be given another contract so not counting him.

Simpson could retire but I anticipate that he will play on so not counting him.

Gibbs could well be traded.

Kreuzer and Casboult are the two that could also go to other clubs, with Kreuzer possibly gaining FA compensation and Casboult not. If we take a FA or two (and I think we will have to), then any FA compensation for Kreuzer will cancel.

So could be 6 draftees, 2 rookie upgrades (see how JGM develops as the year goes on), 1-2 FAs and whatever player might come our way if the Gibbs deal is back on.

Certainly need midfielders, and rucks in the above scenario if we lose / delist Kreuzer, Gorringe, Casboult and we don't persist with Korcheck.

I would do this in one, hopefully last, clean out at the end of Season 2017. Perhaps offer 1 year contracts if we don't see much better in the available FAs or DFAs ... so 1 year contracts were offered to Casboult, Buckley and Graham at the end of last season (I really like it that SOS / Bolts do this).

Similar to my thoughts. I think Kruezer will stay. Highly doubtful on Gorringe Casboult & Korcheck. I just hope SOS is aggressive again and clears the rest of the deadwood. Need to get past okay or handy players and chase young elite talent.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

1. Do you agree that a good sign that our list is improving is that Rowe is squeezed out?

Potentially, but I absolutely do not believe he has to be squeezed out for us to improve, or be seen to be improving. Every club has good solid mature role players - he's playing a role for us now & I think he's capable of continuing to do so over the next couple of years.

2. So when you are looking at our 22, who do you see dropping out in the next year or 2 to make way for the kids coming through?

From the 22 named for today?

- Thomas
- White
- Casboult
- Simpson

Rowe, E Curnow, Gibbs and Kreuzer I'd have as possibilities.

Thanks again Jeremais for taking up the challenge.

FWIW, from the 22 named today, I would hope that we have replaced Thomas, White, Kerridge, Casboult and Rowe in the Best 22 by the end of Season 2018. And if Palmer plays, him too.

Gibbs could be traded but if not will remain in Best 22, Kreuzer could be an FA out but if not will remain in Best 22.

E Curnow to the bench adding to midfield rotations as our midfield depth improves.

Simpson I think plays one more year and then retires.

 

[Red Bull]

It appears that we will have heaps of cap space at seasons end .
So what to do with it ?
Front load contract extensions for our top rated youth .
Reported that this is already in place for Cripps and Weitering with presumably McKay , Curnow etc to follow in due course .
What next ? we are compelled by AFL rules to spend it .
Chasing high quality talent in our required age demographic costs plenty trade wise .
I'd entertain this using our future draft picks or any picks gained from a possible Gibbs trade .
We're looking at a very high pick this year and we must take it and hopefully more to the draft.
This leaves FA .
I'd be all in for Fyfe provided he has no major injury concerns this year .
He is still only 25/26 and we cannot continue to burden Cripps with the entire midfield load .
At no trade cost to us it'd be a no brainer .
Then there's Martin .
He's not everyone's favorite choice as a son in law but by golly can he play !!
At the very least we could force Richmond to pay huge $$$ to keep him thus keeping them out of the market for any others we may be pursuing .
Its going to be interesting to watch the season unfold with an eye to the trade period in the knowledge that we will have this "war chest" and have to spend it ...

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Yeah I see what you are saying about Treloar, but Collingwoods first wasn't as high as ours will be, and everyone expected them to easily make the 8 the next year, so their 2x firsts would have been (expected) to be way less than our 2xfirsts.

With hopper and Kelly out of contract there is no way they can keep them in their cap so a nice neat package of 2 early picks (one defiantly being top 3) might be the best deal they can get for them.

I reckon you're right regarding the North offer to Kelly, no way I'd want to pay that kind of money, not that we couldn't afford it, or front load it, but what does that say to the rest of our list? Could mYbe stomach that sort of deal if it was a free agent, but not if we have to stump up picks.

Hopefully north land someone else and we can get Kelly for 700k x 6 years.

Why would Kelly accept 4.2 mil over 6 years when he could more than double that with 3 extra years?

 

[Dramoth]

Personally, if Kreuzer has a great season and is back to his best form then we would be cutting off our noses to spite our faces. We had this argument two years ago when he first got to FA and then he came out and repaid the club with a good year... and so far this year, it looks like he is back to his best form with his work following a bounce or throw in.

Unfortunately, it is also the type of around the ground work that's going to get other clubs interested. Unless Phillips or Korchek rapidly improve, we might let go of Kreuzer and not have a decent replacement for him in the wings.

 

[Funk]

I'd do it.

-There is little chance that a top 3 pick will be as good a Kelly (a former pick 2)
-Hopper is a bull of a mid, you'd be stoked with a top 5 pick that showed as much promise as him
-first pick in 2018 may be of less value considering BOSOS
-Kelly and hopper are right amongst our age group and apparently it's in fashion to have players come through in groups age wise
-Gives us 2 quailiy mids (an inside and outside) helping our weakest area
-Trading Gibbs gets us back into the first round

Build round Cripps, Kelly, Hopper, SPS for future midfield.

SOS has shown great strategic and negotiating skills.

I would be hoping (maybe in vain!!) that he can conjure ways of getting some of these guys without burning our top 10 draft picks.

Eg we have cap space to burn - so if we can offer these players such a good deal to nominate us we are in the box seat from a negotiating position. Eg Marchbank.

Time will tell.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Personally, if Kreuzer has a great season and is back to his best form then we would be cutting off our noses to spite our faces. We had this argument two years ago when he first got to FA and then he came out and repaid the club with a good year... and so far this year, it looks like he is back to his best form with his work following a bounce or throw in.

Unfortunately, it is also the type of around the ground work that's going to get other clubs interested. Unless Phillips or Korchek rapidly improve, we might let go of Kreuzer and not have a decent replacement for him in the wings.

Wasn't he set to go to Colingwood bar a failed medical? He may have repaid us, but he was certainly open to leaving Carlton. You would assume he would be open to it again, especially if a team is in a premiership window like GWS for instance. Its worth exploring at least him leaving and what we could get in return, say a Hopper, an inside mid we desperately need.

 

[Funk]

These are the picks that set a good draft scout apart from a great one. Hopefully more gold like this in the future.

Absolutely spot on here dd.

Dogs premiership team was built on nailing later draft picks.

 

[Funk]

GWS will lose some talent, but I don't think they will happily lose Best 22 players. Marchbank who was injured and on the fringes of Best 22 they drove a hard bargain for, with Pickett a bonus for us coming off a long ankle injury lay off. So, expect players not getting much Senior games to be available, and the replaceable 'bottom 6' of the Best 22 perhaps.
The differences are (1) GWS gets draft picks and players for their 'cast offs' and we don't since SOS' 2015 trade clean out, and (2) GWS get the option over a few academy players each year, Setterfield, etc., and these are players that other clubs want, while we wait for the drip feed of good father-son talent ...

GWS did not "happily lose" Marchbank.

But they can't force uncontracted players to re-sign.

All they can hope to do is get the best return possible in a trade - or lose them for nothing in the draft.

All best 22 players decide to leave for more $ there is not much GWS can do about it.