Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Sharks On A Plane]

If you accept that gun CHF's:

A) take 3-4 years to develop, and
B) are much harder to find as F/A compared to a mid

We have already drafted the gun CHF: Jacob Weitering.

You bleating on that we only have one KPF prospect on our list in Harry McKay doesn't make it true, given the fact the club clearly see Weitering as a KPF prospect.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

The weight of your argument - sorry discussion - has got the better of me.... I concede your statistical based approach is far superior to my humble rambl

I'm not sure you are grasping what Malfice has been explaining quite well for the last few pages.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I would actually be happy enough to lose both Kruez and Casboult if we could get band 2 and 3 picks for them. I like both players but we are still along way off contending and I'm happy to take a step backwards to take two forward in the future.
We already have no second round picks so if we stuff up our first round pick which is always a chance and can't attract anyone of note in trades we could potentially add no talented kids at the end of this season. (Our third pick will be 40+ and it's a roll of a dice from around there)
I think this will be the season SOS will be judged on because he will have to either nail the draft of move on much loved players.

TBH, I'm not sure we can afford to give up Levi at seasons end. Especially if his season continues the way it has been so far. I'm not certain giving up our only mature KPF is the right way to go. Even at this point, I'm more than happy to offer him up a contract for the next two seasons. Kruezer on the other hand, I'm more than content for him to leave if it will net us an end of first round compo pick. I'm more than happy if Gibbs leaves also, giving us what I assume would be another first round pick in the 15 - 18 range. I'm even more content again to offer up our 2018 first rounder for Hopper + from GWS.

 

[LordLucifer]

nobody tells this bloke where he can and can't play

You know, I was going to make an Eraserhead reference towards C.Curnow but wasn't sure if too many people would of got it.

 

[Funk]

I don't think it means anything other than a guy bloke out watching the footy, but I noticed Matthew Kennedy at the Carlton Collingwood game at the weekend. Maybe scouting the fellas he will be playing with next year.

Guessing he's more likely to end up at the Blues than the Pies after that game........

 

[HBF]

So Daisy has had his clause removed from his contact, seems like an absolute ripper of a clubman. I actually hope he does get a new contract he is a great leader and role model

Reckon he'd be great as a development coach.

 

[Funk]

Over the prior 20 years of the AFL draft 95% of all gun key forwards come in the first round. Less than 5% of players across all positions selected after draft pick 40 go on to play 50 or more games.

Statistically speaking he is almost a certainty not to make it. It is not pessimistic to say he probably wont make it; the reality is, it is optimistic to say anything else.

Far from being pessimistic, I am simply being objective.

Now don't get me wrong. I desperately want him to make it. I'm just saying from a list management perspective we need to be pragmatic and play the numbers. We don't want to be betting our future premiership on a 200 to 1 longshot.

Further to this I read recently 70% of players who play >150 games were taken in top 20 of the draft.

 

[Funk]

So his gf must have been wearing Navy Blue

She's been offered a job at Carlton???

 

[Malifice]

Agree it could be better but we need more that a KPF to make this team work. Midfield is priority.

Im advocating using one (and one only) 1st round pick on a KPF (CHF).

Seeing as we are every chance of having 3 picks in the top 20 (Gibbs leaves, and one of MK or Levi leave as F/A after having good years) its not asking much. We still have two top 20 picks this year, our first next year and our first in 2019, plus two years to attract F/A.

1. We had the best KPF in the AFL with Fev but we were smashed, it was not until our midfield of Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simmo, Scotland, Carrotts, etc. developed in 2011 post Fev) that we looked competitive.

You want to talk goal scoring and Forwards? Spot the trend:

11th (Fevola, 99 goals)
7th (Fevola 89 goals; Fev sacked at the end of the year)
8th (Judd wins the Brownlow, Betts kicks 42 goals)
5th (Andrew Walker kicks 56 goals, Betts kicks 50, Garlett kicks 48. Walker and Betts come 7th and 10th in the Coleman)
10th (Betts again with 48 goals)
8th (Garlett with 43, Betts leaves for Adelaide)
13th (Waite with 29 goals)
18th (Everitt with 31 goals)
14th (Wright with 22 goals)

2. If you had a choice this draft between a Fev and a Judd who do you take?

We have a Judd. His name is Cripps. And we have SPS. I want to add a 60+ goal per season CHF to the side to play with them so they have someone to kick to, and to give our defenders a break from repelling the ball every 2 minutes only to have it pumped back in.

And shouldnt the comparison be between Judd and Kennedy?

How much better do we look with Levi marking the ball when it goes inside 50, and going back and slotting goals instead of us chipping it in the pocket all the time, or the ball being repelled around the half forward line?

3. We have Kerr, McKay and Weiters developing - if we add BSOS next year, use LJ, Casboult, Rowe, KJ, etc. as depth we do not need to reach for a KPF this year. We also have talls down back who may swing forward.

Kerr and McKay arent quality forwards. They are (at present) question marks, with Kerr highly unlikey to turn that question mark into 'consistent elite AFL level KPF'. McKay maybe, but thats all he is at present: a maybe. Weitering is a full back, we cant have him occupying both full back in our spine and CHF. He should stay at FB (Im happy with him spending some time up forward to prepare to cover for McKay should Cas leave this year). BSOS might not even get drafted or enter the draft, might not be any good, and if he does get drafted might not get drafted by us.

And on that point, why are you keen on drafting BSOS next year? I thought we needed midfielders?

And its not about needing one this year. I dont care about this year. I dont care about next year. I dont care about the year after. We arent winning the flag in any of those years. Let GWS have their day. The only function 2017, 18 and 19 serve is to get games into the kids, develop youngsters and draft talent. It doesnt matter what we need this year, or next year, or the year after. What matters is the window opening from 2020 onwards. Getting the list right so in 2020 we hit the ground ready to go, the list 19-25 years old, spine complete, midfield assembled.

That is why we need a CHF in the side now. They take 3-4 years to develop.

I dont want to swing players around. Cameron doest get swung to FB. Neither does Lynch. Or Patton. Or Hawkins. Or Kennedy. Or Franklin. Or Dixon. Or Riewoldt. Or the other Riewoldt. Or Daniher. Or Boyd. Or Hogan.

4. Drafting KPF is really hard.

Thats precisely why we should be drafting one more.

Traded KPF include Buddy, Tippett, Kennedy, Dixon, Toyd, Vickery, LJ, etc. etc. Rucks is Witts, Big boy, Jacobs, Mumford, Maric*2, ...just about every team has traded in a ruck.

Every one of them was drafted by someone.

5. Lynch and Patton become free agents in the next few years.

If we dont draft our of KPF this year, and McKay doesnt become a Hawkins like CHF, thats our only chance to get one while the window is open.

And we'll be in a market with 17 other clubs.

I would rather be short a Midfielder and need to top up on one via the draft of F/A than be short a KPF and have to find one via trade or F/A. Elite mids are a Dime a Dozen (the 2015 Brownlow medalist and probably this years winner are up for sale this year; plus a former number 2 draft pick in Kelly). Good luck getting a key forward - youre lucky if one comes on the market every year, and you're fighting it out with 17 other clubs for their services.

We've been trying to attract one in the decade since Fev left, and far from attracting any forwards of note, all we've been able to do is lose them to other clubs.

 

[Iamcarlton]

I, I, I.

I, I, I would sooner develop what we have for the next couple of years building the on-ball division and then place the cherry on top.

Agreed harks our onball division is still a long long way from ideal we are 1 long term injury to either a Cripps or Murphy from being a basket case in the middle again . With Gibbs a possible out at end of season all high end picks i would hope would be used to bring quality into our midfield brigade . The fast track at etihad against stkilda this week may re-emphasise the urgency in shifting the emphasis to stocking our mids . If we are only 1 KPF away from being set in that area then thats a great position to be in . Not so the midfield .

 

[GoBlues!]

Plagiarising post is plagiarising

I see red...

 

[Malifice]

Further to this I read recently 70% of players who play >150 games were taken in top 20 of the draft.

The AFL Draft points value is based off average games played by draft position and it tapers off rapidly and steeply.

 

[Funk]

Let's walk through it, knowing things could change.

I feel we may still need that one pure shut down defender post Rowe/ASilvagni.
You don't though invest a #1 pick for that guy..................that would be crazy.

Marchbank looks on track to become our Rance. A rebounding CHB.
Macreadie is an agile tall that add lots of run and flexibility.
Plowman does what Plowman does so very well.
Docherty........is Docherty
Byrne makes for another rebounding defender all be it a mid sized one.
Williamson if he stays here, has already shown what he is capable of.
Sheehan if we need him and if he can stay clear of injury.

There's a pretty good foundation right there for mine, so if we look at having to replace Rowe, than that will be much easier and cheaper than throwing down your #1 pick player.
I know Weitering isn't kicking multiple goals just yet but we know what kind of player he is and is yet to become...so you don't throw that guy back to muscle with gorillas.

Right now a sore (and younger) Weitering is showing so much more forward than Schache, McCartin and D.Moore are, but somehow that's not quite good enough yet. Guy's a gun and not one you'd want to waste down back unless you're absolutely inundated with forward riches...............and we're not.

Totally agree Harks!!!!!

 

[Iamcarlton]

We have already drafted the gun CHF: Jacob Weitering.

You bleating on that we only have one KPF prospect on our list in Harry McKay doesn't make it true, given the fact the club clearly see Weitering as a KPF prospect.

Spot on i was going to mention this wack 5 or 6 kgs on Weitering and theres your power forward

 

[Funk]

I think I need to re-make by point on the 2016 GF.

Based on your logic Jahannisen, Boyd, Biggs, Morris, Picken, Cordy, Dickson (Dogs) and Lloyd, Grundy, Smith, Laidler, Rampe, Jack, Papley, McGlynn, Naismith, Richards (Swans) - ALL 50 PLUS OR ROOKIES - should not have played. That is one big statistical anomaly.

The draft can't be all about stats. Good recruiters need to be able to consider stats but pick players on experience and intuition otherwise you compete in the pack. All recruiters work off the same data!

I get your point BB.

However the odds are in favour of higher picks.

If we can keep mustering them AND nail our lower picks and rookies?

People really will see that we're cooking something special.....

 

[Malifice]

Let me have a go at it.

Target Tom Lynch now. Work towards orchestrating an agreement in principle.
Build a fluent and cohesive mid-field in the mean time, ready to drop in the last piece of the puzzle.

That's one way of going about it as you'd know where you have to be at a certain point in time, in relation to the TPP.

If we are to target a KPF (could be anything up to 2mil) get all your ducks in a row first and not have the forward with no-one capable of getting the ball to them. That would be a waste.

Mids are easier to target than Key Forwards.

Youre running a 1/17 risk there (18 clubs, we need to attract him to us). We went years trying to get a quality key forward after Fev left, even offering half a million per season to Cloke.

OTOH 3-4 mids leave to F/A each year, which provides much better odds of attracting one if youre genuinely on the lookout for mids and got money to splash.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

We done it to Tuohy last year and it hasn't seemed to affect us. The players aren't idiots they know we are going through a complete rebuild and that tough decisions will be made.
The players also know Kruez would have left us if he passed a medical and they still love him

The difference here is that Tuohy was only mediocre so the players could understand. Tuohy was up against Simpson, Docherty and Plowman and was looked on as the poorer version.

Krueze is our current best option, so is Casbault. That difference is important. People quote that Tuohy was lowballed but there is an argument that he was 4th in line against Plowman, Doch, Simpson and then a returning Byrne. The detail is quite important...Tuohy was an 'honest' surplus to requirements.

Playing the game of lowballing salaries can come back to bite the club. We just don't need to operate that way with our best performed players. Hawthorn have just tested that process in detail. They are ****ed period now.

And what is the point of pushing club culture at all? Listen players...give your all, accept lower contracts for a shot at a flag, accept injuries, live a good culture - don't drink on weekends, prepare yourself professionally for EVERY game, and lastly, if we get a better option, we'll low ball your salary to ship you on so we can get someone better as we head towards that ultimate glory - a flag. Seems pretty mercenary and could only breed mercenary players in response.

 

[Cliffords Blues]

Take Fev up on his offer to get back into shape and draft as a rookie, Hudson style.
Hudson came back and kicked 100+...I think?
(tongue in cheek)

 

[Funk]

I think I need to re-make by point on the 2016 GF.

Based on your logic Jahannisen, Boyd, Biggs, Morris, Picken, Cordy, Dickson (Dogs) and Lloyd, Grundy, Smith, Laidler, Rampe, Jack, Papley, McGlynn, Naismith, Richards (Swans) - ALL 50 PLUS OR ROOKIES - should not have played. That is one big statistical anomaly.

The draft can't be all about stats. Good recruiters need to be able to consider stats but pick players on experience and intuition otherwise you compete in the pack. All recruiters work off the same data!

Dogs gave more weighting than other clubs to CP's (ability to win their own ball) and tackle numbers (preparedness to work hard defensively).

These are "stats" not just intuition.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

For those looking to move on Casbault, you can look across at the Pies and check out how trading Cloke has helped D Moore progress.

Seriously inept analysis in wanting to trade Casbault.

Anyone look closely at Moore's face last week as he played. Failure was ingrained on it. Lack of confidence as the pressure has built up so high as a sole target.

 

[thylacine60]

You know, I was going to make an Eraserhead reference towards C.Curnow but wasn't sure if too many people would of got it.

Print and be damned.....

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

Just mentioned on Fox Sports News that SPS & Charlie are close to signing new long term contract extensions.

So much for Samo being unhappy & wanting home....

 

[LanceRomance]

Just mentioned on Fox Sports News that SPS & Charlie are close to signing new long term contract extensions.

So much for Samo being unhappy & wanting home....

Didn't they say to which club?

 

[HARKER]

You know, I was going to make an Eraserhead reference towards C.Curnow but wasn't sure if too many people would of got it.

You won't get too much David Lynch past here.
Don't forget: Twin Peaks is on its way.

Who really knows what may yet come about, but this thread does make for some 'fun' ideas. Don't stop now.

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

Didn't they say to which club?

West Coast for Samo
Booze bus bandits for Charlie