Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Malifice]

i think he's too skillful with the ball to be played in defense, particularly with the depth we have there.

Thats exactly why we need him there. His ability not just to take intercept marks like Mbank, but also play on, run and carry and deliver the ball last year was ridiculous for a player of his age and experience.

If we need a key forward (and we do), then lets draft/ trade a key forward. Not try and covert our best young defender (his year last year was better than Plowmans and Marchbanks this year) into an average 2nd forward.

Its like saying Cripps is a decent 2nd forward because of his height so lets play him permanently in the forward line. He might make an OK 2nd forward, but he's an elite midfielder.

 

[ferrisb]

Re Schache:

Let's say the deal is our 1st this year OR next. Maybe pick 3-6.

Would we not be better just using that pick on a promising KPF draftee?

Pay Schache $700K or a kid $100k for a couple of years and then bump that up to $300-350k or whatever the promising kids get in their 2nd contract.

Obviously it would depend on how we rate 2017 KPF vs Schache. But if they were equivalent on talent, I'd rather pick the kid organically than trade him in. Also, I concede the draftee would be two years behind in development, but I don't think there is a huge diff between a 20yo and 18yo considering where we're at.

 

[Soapy V]

Thats exactly why we need him there. His ability not just to take intercept marks like Mbank, but also play on, run and carry and deliver the ball last year was ridiculous for a player of his age and experience.

That is my argument. Weitering is as good a ball user as we have on our list. He is elite! I think he will create as many scoring opportunities from defence as he will up forward. The bonus is he will stop goals as well.

 

[Malifice]

So what your saying is we should deny him the chance to play as a forward in his second year after what 30 games in a learning environment as that is what our side is for many of our players

No, I clearly said that he should be playing up forward a bit, and that he should be spending time over his career as a forward. I clearly said its good for his development, and having the ability to move him up forward from time to time gives us versatility and the ability to surprise opponents going forward.

SOS was the fullback of the century, but we moved him forward for the odd game.

My point is that he is a far better defender than a forward, he is the best young forward out of (Weitering, Mcreadie, Plowman and Marchbank), and that the MC are not playing him forward to leave him there.

Its development for him in a junk year. Nothing more and nothing less.

Doesnt make a lot of sense to me to pigeon hole a player that way in only his second year but thats just me and imo is very shortsighted . We are not winning premierships anytime soon so why that attitude or is it that your just trying to support your argument about obtaining a Key forward ? . Btw who has said he will be a permanent forward ?

Its not 'my argument that we need a key forward'. Blind Freddie can see we need a key forward. Our number 1 goal kicker last year was Wright with 22 goals. We have a ton of key defenders coming through, a gun halfback two talented mids, and a half forward and a utility.

We have one key forward in McKay. I mean, if we had another one, we'd be playing him up forward already.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Thats exactly why we need him there. His ability not just to take intercept marks like Mbank, but also play on, run and carry and deliver the ball last year was ridiculous for a player of his age and experience.

If we need a key forward (and we do), then lets draft/ trade a key forward. Not try and covert our best young defender (his year last year was better than Plowmans and Marchbanks this year) into an average 2nd forward.

Its like saying Cripps is a decent 2nd forward because of his height so lets play him permanently in the forward line. He might make an OK 2nd forward, but he's an elite midfielder.

our midfield is still ridiculously short of depth (in fact i'd go as far to say it's the worst in the AFL). so taking cripps out of there would be unthinkable. but our defense has some serious depth.

but for instance robbie gray was ports best midfielder, but they've added midfield depth and put him permanent forward this year and while his own game has suffered, the team is absolutely flying.

if we're able to find a good key forward prospect then all good throw weitering back, but considering weitering is performing about as good as schache who was a pick 2, we're gonna have to really hit the jackpot to find someone better.

 

[Malifice]

That is my argument. Weitering is as good a ball user as we have on our list. He is elite! I think he will create as many scoring opportunities from defence as he will up forward. The bonus is he will stop goals as well.

I can see the need to play him there this year (a nothing year/ development year for us).

But people who thing we're moving him there permanently are missing the big picture. Its not what the MC are planning at all. Its development for him, gives us a little bit of KPF coverage going forward, (Levi is a F/A and McKay is an unknown who needs time) gives him some exposure to the forward line, and lets the MC see if he's got what it takes to be a KPF.

He only moves forward permanently if he starts kicking bags of 3+. Otherwise its just for us to have a look at how he goes, help his development, amd put some games as a forward under his belt if Casboult leaves as a FA this year.

 

[Soapy V]

I can see the need to play him there this year (a nothing year/ development year for us).

But people who thing we're moving him there permanently are missing the big picture. Its not what the MC are planning at all. Its development for him, gives us a little bit of KPF coverage going forward, (Levi is a F/A and McKay is an unknown who needs time) gives him some exposure to the forward line, and lets the MC see if he's got what it takes to be a KPF.

He only moves forward permanently if he starts kicking bags of 3+. Otherwise its just for us to have a look at how he goes, help his development, amd put some games as a forward under his belt if Casboult leaves as a FA this year.

I understand why the MC are doing it and it's fair enough. I see it more whilst McKay, Kerr, Silvagni develop rather than Casboult leaving.

I am just a believer that you build your defence first and they need time together. That is what wins flags. It's not the "sexy" option but it's what works. Weitering & Co could be the best Carlton defence ever. Even above the Silvagni/Sexton or Southby/Doull eras. He can always go forward when needed much like SOS did.

 

[Iamcarlton]

No, I clearly said that he should be playing up forward a bit, and that he should be spending time over his career as a forward. I clearly said its good for his development, and having the ability to move him up forward from time to time gives us versatility and the ability to surprise opponents going forward.

SOS was the fullback of the century, but we moved him forward for the odd game.

My point is that he is a far better defender than a forward, he is the best young forward out of (Weitering, Mcreadie, Plowman and Marchbank), and that the MC are not playing him forward to leave him there.

Its development for him in a junk year. Nothing more and nothing less.



Its not 'my argument that we need a key forward'. Blind Freddie can see we need a key forward. Our number 1 goal kicker last year was Wright with 22 goals. We have a ton of key defenders coming through, a gun halfback two talented mids, and a half forward and a utility.

We have one key forward in McKay. I mean, if we had another one, we'd be playing him up forward already.

In your opinion we need a key forward saying blind freddie is over the top imo .
You can go grab another tall forward if you like but imo its not going to make one iota of a difference unless its a Tom Lynch to our performance either in the short term or long term .
We are going nowhere until our midfield is addressed to the point where as the bulldogs and the best sides do is having good midfielders and midfielder types taking up flank positions .

 

[Malifice]

our midfield is still ridiculously short of depth (in fact i'd go as far to say it's the worst in the AFL). so taking cripps out of there would be unthinkable. but our defense has some serious depth.

Watch an Adelaide game. They have Sloane and then... no-one.

In addition to Cripps and SPS we have Murphy, Gibbs, Curnow and Kruezer (for a few more years yet) plus Polson, Cuningham and Fisher developing and Palmer, Kerridge and Graham for depth.

You are dramatically underrating that midfield. Our problem is around the half forward line, and inside our F50 with a lack of tall marking targets.

There is only so many times the defenders can intercept, move the ball back down the ground only for it to be coming straight back in.

if we're able to find a good key forward prospect then all good throw weitering back, but considering weitering is performing about as good as schache who was a pick 2, we're gonna have to really hit the jackpot to find someone better.

JW is averaging 7 goals and 57 SC points in 8 games. Im sure we can find someone better.

You can see that hes not being played up forward permanently right? This is only for 12 months to give him a taste, for his development and so we have a back up forward in case Levi leaves, McKay doesnt come on or both?

 

[Malifice]

In your opinion we need a key forward saying blind freddie is over the top imo .

Our leading goal scorer last year was 2 foot tall Matty Wright with 22. We've been forced to move our number 1 draft pick key defender down back for coverage.

We dont have the worst midfield in the comp, but we sure as shit have the worst forward line. Our total points for this year is 581, worst in the AFL. Brisbane is the next worst and even they have 638.

You can go grab another tall forward if you like but imo its not going to make one iota of a difference unless its a Tom Lynch to our performance either in the short term or long term .

I dont give two tosses about the short term. It takes 3-4 years for a KPF to start performing. I only give a toss about us having two 60+ goal -crash pack - clunk mark - kick goal key forwards fit and firing come 2020 when the window opens and we are starting to compete for the top 8.

We are going nowhere until our midfield is addressed to the point where as the bulldogs and the best sides do is having good midfielders and midfielder types taking up flank positions .

Our Midfield at present isnt bad. Cripps, SPS, Murphy, Gibbs, Curnow, Kruezer is actually pretty bloody good. The problem with the midfield is all of that list barring Cripps and SPS will be gone in 3 years time, meaning we need replacements for Murphy, Gibbs, Kruzer and Curnow (plus 1 or 2 more) sometime between me finishing this post and the ball being bounced to start season 2020.

Its not that the midfield is bad now; its that we need youth in the midfield to replace Gibbs, Murphy, Kruezer, Curnow and Thomas.

 

[Cutz]

There will be at least seven senior list players moved on (not even counting the rookie list) and that's before you even consider who might be traded out. There is no use keeping players on the list that pain you to even consider them for a possible senior spot, I count seven of them. Then there is another swath twice as big who are doubtfully capable of having the required impact at finals level. Soapy is not far of the mark, not far at all, even if he comes across as a rebuild fundamentalist. I am too, but I just don't have the energy to type as much.

"Rebuild Fundamentalist"......................Love it : )

Im definitely a rebuild fundamentalist !

 

[Malifice]

I understand why the MC are doing it and it's fair enough. I see it more whilst McKay, Kerr, Silvagni develop rather than Casboult leaving.

I am just a believer that you build your defence first and they need time together. That is what wins flags. It's not the "sexy" option but it's what works. Weitering & Co could be the best Carlton defence ever. Even above the Silvagni/Sexton or Southby/Doull eras. He can always go forward when needed much like SOS did.

I think Weitering could play the whole year as a permanent forward and then go straight down back at round 1 next year and not miss a beat.

Im not opposed to playing him forward. Its just (barring him kicking bags and dominating) he aint a permanent forward. He'll be the occasional swing man, and a bodge job patchwork holding the forward line together for a year or two while McKay develops/ we get Cameron in as a F/A.

 

[Arr0w]

I have to say, I am with Malifice on this.

We have drafted and traded very well over the last 2 years.

The upcoming draft is rich with talls, so I would be inclined to think that SOS & Co will target KPP's, especially forwards. As an example, 4 of 8 possible picks to be KPP's. The caveat on this depends on how active we are during the trade period.

As satisfying as it is to win several games during the year, at present, I would prefer we stay the course, with our list management strategy, so when our group comes through together, it is for sustained success, not the yo yo affect we have had over the last 15 years.

 

[Malifice]

I have to say, I am with Malifice on this.

We have drafted and traded very well over the last 2 years.

The upcoming draft is rich with talls, so I would be inclined to think that SOS & Co will target KPP's, especially forwards. As an example, 4 of 8 possible picks to be KPP's. The caveat on this depends on how active we are during the trade period.

As satisfying as it is to win several games during the year, at present, I would prefer we stay the course, with our list management strategy, so when our group comes through together, it is for sustained success, not the yo yo affect we have had over the last 15 years.

SOS has form mate. 4 KPFs at GWS (Cameron, Patton, Mcarthy and Boyd). Two left, two came good. He got them in first.

Im not surprused to see Schache's name getting thrown up, and Weitering played forward. They've identified a rather large hole we have up forward.

I just cant read what the plan is. It looks like they're planning on plastering over the hole up forward for 2 years with JW (seeing if he comes good, and buying McKay more time) and then throwing the farm at one of Patton or JC when they become free agents.

If he doesnt draft a Key Forward this year, somethings up.

 

[Arr0w]

SOS has form mate. 4 KPFs at GWS (Cameron, Patton, Mcarthy and Boyd). Two left, two came good. He got them in first.

Im not surprused to see Schache's name getting thrown up, and Weitering played forward. They've identified a rather large hole we have up forward.

I just cant read what the plan is. It looks like they're planning on plastering over the hole up forward for 2 years with JW (seeing if he comes good, and buying McKay more time) and then throwing the farm at one of Patton or JC when they become free agents.

If he doesnt draft a Key Forward this year, somethings up.

Whether it is via FA/Draft/Trade, I believe we will add at least 4 KPP/Ruckmen. As for Schache, perhaps. Maybe people should cast their eyes over the rest of the list

 

[Malifice]

Whether it is via FA/Draft/Trade, I believe we will add at least 4 KPP/Ruckmen. As for Schache, perhaps. Maybe people should cast their eyes over the rest of the list

By my count we need 1 KPF (and a good one), 1 ruckman, and 6 mids (2 elite) between now and bounce of the ball in 2020.

 

[Arr0w]

By my count we need 1 KPF (and a good one), 1 ruckman, and 6 mids (2 elite) between now and bounce of the ball in 2020.

I believe, there will be more than 1 KPF & 1 Ruckman, of high quality by 2020, the midfield is easier to turn around, over the next 2 1/2 years

 

[Cripps17]

He doesnt need to play there at present because we can cover him with the glut of key defenders we have. That doesnt mean its going to be a permanent move up forward.

You're contradicting yourself - if the team can already cover him in defence, then it stands to reason there is not a need to send him back. It's not as though we have an aging defence.

We do not need Weitering to be an AA backman, if the net effect for the team is greater by playing him forward.

 

[branedotorg]

You're contradicting yourself - if the team can already cover him in defence, then it stands to reason there is not a need to send him back. It's not as though we have an aging defence.

We do not need Weitering to be an AA backman, if the net effect for the team is greater by playing him forward.

i'd rather see him developed as a chf, he has the skills and tank for it.

 

[Malifice]

I believe, there will be more than 1 KPF & 1 Ruckman, of high quality by 2020, the midfield is easier to turn around, over the next 2 1/2 years

The way I look at it, we need 8 players in 3 years.

I assume 1 x gun free agent signing (one of Cameron, Patton or Shiel in 19 is most likely). Leaving us 7.

That leaves us 3 x 1sts, 2 x 2nds our 2020 1st (I would be happy trading it out for an extra 1st round pick in 2019), maybe a late 1st for Gibbs or end of 1st compo for Kruezer, and 3 x 3rds and 3 x rookies to find 7 players.

We need to nail every pick, but we have just enough to do it.

I prioritize the KPF (and ruck) first as I reckon our midfield will keep going for another few years (Even if Gibbs + Kruezer leave = Cripps, Murphy, SPS, Cuningham, Polson, Fisher, Graham, Curnow, Phillips - it isnt good but it serves as a placeholder for 2 years) and KPF and Rucks take time and are much harder to obtain on the market.

The other option is get an in principle deal in place with say Cameron now (years out but hey) for like a squillion a year, and then focus on drafting mids.

 

[ferrisb]

Not sure if best here or the Bolton thread in FBI's uber-awesome Youf thread...

I've been pondering the success we have had through the last couple of drafts. Not only did we play most of our 2015 draftees last year, but for the most part they have kept their spots in the team and 2016 draftees have been added. Very impressive. Fast forward to next year and I expect this year's crop to keep their spots and we add yet more youth.

The natural reaction seems to be 'SOS is a recruiting genius'. And I've felt and said the same. But the more I think about it, the more I realise we should be giving as much praise (or more?) to Bolts and the assistant coaches.

I mean Weitering was going to make it regardless. But to step in like he did last year...WOW. A player like SPS arguably could have been drafted by anyone and played early games this year. Sure we had a stack of first round picks in 2015, but you look at the later guys that have slotted in seamlessly. Macreadie; Pick 47, playing CHB/3rd tall at 18yo and looking like a natural. I think that comes from coaching and gameplan understanding more than 'hey, we picked a gem at 47'. Same goes for Williamson; Pick 61. Is he more talented than DVR was? I dunno. But he has fit right in. SOSAJ, Fisher, Polson, Macreadie and Williamson have played earlier and looked better than I expected this early.

Obviously it all starts with drafting talented, hard-working kids. But without good coaching they either don't make it or take years to make the grade. The fact that our draftees have seemed to be 'plug-and-play', especially in non-traditional roles for kids (eg CHB) has to be a HUGE endorsement for Bolts and co.

So I bow to you, coaching team. Bravo....

 

[ParapMarkets]

JW as a backman - career high disposals 26 (in his 3rd game) 17 kicks and 129 SC points (BOG followed by Sam Docherty with 119 SC points). 24 disposals and 14 marks against Brissy in round 11 (3rd best on).

Finished last year:

1st among rising stars in Total Marks in 2016

4th among rising stars in Total Contested Marks in 2016

3rd among rising stars in Total Rebound 50s in 2016

4th among rising stars in Total One Percenters in 2016

3rd among rising stars in Marks Per Game in 2016

5th among rising stars in Effective Disposals % Per Game in 2016

He's currently averaging 11 disposals, 4.8 marks, 1 tackle, 57 SC points, and under 1 goal a game (as a forward).

I get why we need to expose and train him as a forward, and I agree he will switch hit up there, but I seriously think some people have some very short memories here. Not even Carlton go out and draft a gun once in a generation key defender with pick 1, to play him permanently as a mediocre forward.

We drafted him at pick 1 because he was the best prospect, not because we wanted to stubbornly pigeonhole him as a key defender. Just like Nick Riewoldt wasn't drafted at pick 1 because they wanted to stubbornly pigeonhole him as a defender, or Jeremy Cameron, or David Mundy......the list goes on.

How about we be patient and afford him the same opportunity up forward that we would for say Josh Schache or Charlie Curnow before we declare him a mediocre forward. If it doesn't work then fine put him back, he has a challenge ahead of him and I think he is up for it. You might get "weirded out" by people suggesting he can be a long term forward for us, but personally I find it staggering that people are being so impatient with his development up forward, especially with so many of our young key backs looking good. He's playing the most difficult position on the ground, it takes time to master and there will be ups and downs.

 

[Iamcarlton]

i'd rather see him developed as a chf, he has the skills and tank for it.

I like him forward also but tbh i dont think it matters where he plays . Until we have a midfield that bats deep with both quality and depth our team is not going to challenge the best with Weitering at FB or FF .

 

[Malifice]

You're contradicting yourself - if the team can already cover him in defence, then it stands to reason there is not a need to send him back. It's not as though we have an aging defence.

Yet every time our defence has been overwhelmed this year, Bolton has sent him back into defence.

Our defenders are good, but theyre better with Weitering down there. He is:

1) A better defender than Marchbank or Plowman or Mcreadie, and
2) A better defender than a forward.

We do not need Weitering to be an AA backman, if the net effect for the team is greater by playing him forward.

How are you not seeing this? We are only playing him forward as we have no-one else coming through at present that can do it. He have 4 key backs (Weitering, Mcreadie, Mbank and Plowman) coming through and 1 key forward (McKay). Of those 4 key backs, Weitering has runs on the board as a junior playing forward so we are shifting him up forward to plug a gaping hole in our list (lack of a key forward).

The plan isnt for him to stay there. Surely you can see this? He's there for a year or two for development, and as a bodge job to plug a gaping hole in our list. In time will play primarily as a defender, who occasionally moves forward.

 

[Arr0w]

The way I look at it, we need 8 players in 3 years.

I assume 1 x gun free agent signing (one of Cameron, Patton or Shiel in 19 is most likely). Leaving us 7.

That leaves us 3 x 1sts, 2 x 2nds our 2020 1st (I would be happy trading it out for an extra 1st round pick in 2019), maybe a late 1st for Gibbs or end of 1st compo for Kruezer, and 3 x 3rds and 3 x rookies to find 7 players.

We need to nail every pick, but we have just enough to do it.

I prioritize the KPF (and ruck) first as I reckon our midfield will keep going for another few years (Even if Gibbs + Kruezer leave = Cripps, Murphy, SPS, Cuningham, Polson, Fisher, Graham, Curnow, Phillips - it isnt good but it serves as a placeholder for 2 years) and KPF and Rucks take time and are much harder to obtain on the market.

The other option is get an in principle deal in place with say Cameron now (years out but hey) for like a squillion a year, and then focus on drafting mids.

I see it similar, although I would continue to build the spine via the Draft and or Trade (Money ball type scenario, which KPP player is under valued aka Marchbank). over the next to draft/trade periods. Then, target some top end FA's