Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[JohnnyFontane90]

He might not even want to come to us.. Maybe he doesn't think it's a good trade
Two way street if you're trying to be too cute

Basically what you're trying to do is improve your list the best you can against seventeen other clubs.

You don't have a monopoly on options

all this trading talk assumes that the player wants to come. if they don't want to then the potential terms of the trade are irrelevant.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

I'd be all over Hopper with our 2018 first. The bloke is a jet. We could potentially get some steak knives back, especially if we take a salary dump again (not sure there's many 'dud' Giants left).

There's no reason why that 2018 first can't end up being a pick around 8-12 with improvement, as well as academy and F/S selections. We can win the trade easily if we back ourselves to get better.

the thing that's holding us back is our forward line. we all know key forwards take a long time to develop and we don't even have any goal kicking small forwards on the list yet except wright. until we see some development in that area i'll have hard time believing we can get out of the bottom 5-6.

so if that future first is expected to be a top 5 pick we should be getting more than just hopper.

 

[Blue__Balls]

You reckon Dodoro doesn't know what's up?

Doesn't matter in the slightest. A club won't go stupidly early on a player who hasn't shown enough to warrant it. It's simply too big a risk. Ben might perform well all year and end up being rated top 5, but I think mid-late first round is going to be more likely if SOS limits his exposure.

 

[LanceRomance]

Doesn't matter in the slightest. A club won't go stupidly early on a player who hasn't shown enough to warrant it. It's simply too big a risk. Ben might perform well all year and end up being rated top 5, but I think mid-late first round is going to be more likely if SOS limits his exposure.

You haven't watched Dodoro

 

[Blue__Balls]

You haven't watched Dodoro

If Essendon bid on Ben a full round ahead of where he's rated, I'll concede. Comfortable that it won't happen though.

 

[Dramoth]

Doesn't matter in the slightest. A club won't go stupidly early on a player who hasn't shown enough to warrant it. It's simply too big a risk. Ben might perform well all year and end up being rated top 5, but I think mid-late first round is going to be more likely if SOS limits his exposure.

What Ben does this year matters not... next year is when Dodoro is going to be watching him. And if Dodoro thinks Ben is worth a first round pick, he will pull the trigger.

Being a friend of the family isn't going to help much either.

 

[Malifice]

If we finish in that position next year then may as well pack up,shut the doors and go home.This is the "gap"year next year is the start of the climb back.Gibbs certain to go,kreuzer is heart and soul,casboilt can be replaced,injuries are just bad luck can happen to anyone.Our draftees will have another 10-15 games full pre season build a tank and get bigger bodies.IMO we should get better.

3 year reset followed by a few development years. We're not even 2 years into the 3 year reset yet.

Next year we're bottom 3 again. Followed by a mid table finish the year after.

Its 2020 onwards that we're firmly in the 8 and pushing for top 4.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Agreed but you must also concede Whitfield and Hooper are practically kids. Picking an big bodied eighteen year old won't address our immediate need to protect Cripps.

Are you serious??? Protect him from who??? Or what??? He's 195cm and 100kg. He's a ****ing monster!!! And while we're on the subject, I don't want to ease his load, if anything, I want him to increase it!!! And when we get some more guns I want them to embrace their own loads, not take some off Cripps.

FWIW using your example of Shiel I don't think he is an elite player, however, why would you be assuming that the late first rounder we would receive along with Hopper in your stated scenario only be a " decent " player as opposed to a very good player?

Hmmmm. I used to wonder what HBF used to see in Shiel. The way he can snaffle a ball in a tight clearance or stoppage situation, then rotate 180 degrees and proceed to accelerate away without anyone laying a glove on him is unique. Is he elite like Judd, Ablett or Goodes??? No......but he's still bloody good.

Stephen will hide his son at Xavier if need be Harks. Serge didn't let Stephen play more than 1 game a week and SOS appears to run the same philosophy

Too late for that my friend. Has already towelled up Oscar Claravino, the best KPD prospect for this years ND. You don't go unnoticed just because you're playing Private School footy anymore.

 

[1981]

Are you serious??? Protect him from who??? Or what??? He's 195cm and 100kg. He's a ******* monster!!! And while we're on the subject, I don't want to ease his load, if anything, I want him to increase it!!! And when we get some more guns I want them to embrace their own loads, not take some off Cripps.


Hmmmm. I used to wonder what HBF used to see in Shiel. The way he can snaffle a ball in a tight clearance or stoppage situation, then rotate 180 degrees and proceed to accelerate away without anyone laying a glove on him is unique. Is he elite like Judd, Ablett or Goodes??? No......but he's still bloody good.


Too late for that my friend. Has already towelled up Oscar Claravino, the best KPD prospect for this years ND. You don't go unnoticed just because you're playing Private School footy anymore.

Many experts lately are worried Cripps could be wrecked by 26.

 

[Arr0w]

Personally, it seems Cripps has been managed well since he first arrived at the club. Missed the majority of 2013 due to injuries and this year seems to be spending more time forward. Conjecture as to his real height and weight, so let's just say he has a massive frame that will only get bigger and stronger.

It would be like suggesting that Oliver Wines should be rested

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Personally, it seems Cripps has been managed well since he first arrived at the club. Missed the majority of 2013 due to injuries and this year seems to be spending more time forward. Conjecture as to his real height and weight, so let's just say he has a massive frame that will only get bigger and stronger.

It would be like suggesting that Oliver Wines should be rested

He got fined for being bigger than the guy he bumped on the weekend.... Massive frame.

 

[ParapMarkets]

It would take a miracle for us to be top 4 capable going into 2019.

With 2 more years of hitting the draft hard plus trades and free agency we should absolutely have the list in place to take us there. They may not be ready to take us there that early but the bulk of our list should be in place by then. How strong and deep do you think other lists are? If they were that much stronger than us surely they would be spanking our VFL team.

 

[ParapMarkets]

I understood what he was saying, just believe that whilst it would be great if it happened, we still have a lot of work to do to completely rebuild the list and being 'Top 4' capable heading into 2019 is somewhat unrealistic.

Sneaking into the Top 8 (ie. positions 6-8) in 2019 would be a good achievement by then.

Yeah, I don't think we would be making top 4 in 2019. I just think the list in place should have the primary players needed to take us there by then (they just may be a bit too inexperienced at that stage).

 

[j-top]

Interesting, what do you think we would have to give up to acquire Hopper and Whitfield in the same deal?

Would our first pick this year be enough ie: Pick 2


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[BLUEALLTHRU]

Is Whitfield the sort of character we want around the club? Sos and Bolts look to be bringing in young players that are excellent people. Imo Whitfield is not.

 

[Malifice]

With 2 more years of hitting the draft hard plus trades and free agency we should absolutely have the list in place to take us there. They may not be ready to take us there that early but the bulk of our list should be in place by then. How strong and deep do you think other lists are? If they were that much stronger than us surely they would be spanking our VFL team.

Over the next 2 years we are likely to lose most of: Simpson, Gibbs, Kruezer, Casboult, Rowe, Thomas, White, Army. Murphy will be into his 30's and not far off retirement either.

These will be players that will be largely replaced by 18 year olds.

By the end of 2018, the bulk of our reset is largely over, and our talent will be concentrated in the 18-22 year old age bracket. You don't win flags or push for top 4 with a list chock a block full of 18-22 year olds who have 10-50 games experience on average. You need a couple of years of continuity, getting AFL bodies, and experience (games under the belt).

Within 3 years time to the end of next year we will have pruned back over 40 list spots, and brought in 30+ teenagers. We are going to need a few years of development into the kids after the reset finishes before we are a seriously competitive side.

2020 onwards is when we're back in amongst it again. The start of the next decade we will be pushing for a top 4 spot, and that will continue for the next 5 or so years (when our list management strategy changes somewhat).

 

[Cutz]

No ones talking about Judd contracts here mate.

And no one has talked about Fyfe for a while...and even when they were if was on the proviso of not trading anything for him.

We''re talking trading something like a 2018 1st pick or a first rounder from Adelaide that we receive for Gibbs, for Hopper.
Only giving up one draft pick for a guy who is only 20 and on moderate wage...Judd cost #3, #20 & Kennedy plus $1 million and was already 25 or so. Not the same at all.

If elite talent is on offer for a good price we should take it while we can...there's no guarantee that these stars or potential stars will choose us in 3 years time. You just don't know what will happen. At some point, simply doing nothing but stockpiling draft picks becomes less and less productive...bringing in guys in their early 20's to tighten the age gap and make an impact straight away to help Cripps, Murphy & Co is more beneficial than hitting the draft just because.

Harker explained it well...if we have pick #3 and the guy rated at that pick is not as good as Hopper...why wouldn't we do the trade? It would be stupid not to since the same pick would get us an inferior player.

When I say Fyfe..I mean in a broad sense any of the free agents that are attracting very very big dollars. It doesn’t have to be Fyfe per se…it could be Martin..or even Kelly…There’s divided opinion on this forum as to whether we are ready for a big name player and contract to come over to Carlton. My opinion is we should wait and do the deal when we are a little deeper into the 66 game rebuild. Right now my opinion is we should keep bringing in kids and focus hard on developing them.

When I say Judd like contract. I mean the time of his contract along with the % of the salary cap he took. Not what the deal consisted of to get him to Carlton in the first place. Net gain here really is that the guy was probably the best footballer of his generation. But had we not misjudged we were as a club back then things could have been very different. Imagine if a player of his ilk came in say at the start of the 2019 season? Timing is everything. Not just stockpiling draft picks but timing the inclusion of specific elite free agent talent in that 25-30 age brack at the right time…

My opinion is that time is not now.

Re: Hopper. Right age, Right Fit, heap of upside as he’s only going to keep improving and at Carlton do so alongside a group of kids more or less the same age. Great get if the deal can be done even for pick #3 in the context you speak of. Totally agree.

Cheers

 

[Arr0w]

Would our first pick this year be enough ie: Pick 2


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Not even close, both Hopper & Whitfield were early picks and have shown that to be justified, with their value increasing. Pick 2 is roughly the value of pick 12 & 13

A couple of examples of past trades (I won't detail all the picks in and out, just the net worth of the pick)

Dom Tyson - Pick 6
Adam Treloar - Between pick 1 & 2
Prestia - Pick 3 (If Richmond finish 9th, pick 4 if they finish higher this year)

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Is Whitfield the sort of character we want around the club? Sos and Bolts look to be bringing in young players that are excellent people. Imo Whitfield is not.

whitfield is a no1 pick who's playing well and 22. that makes his price very high and given he does his best work outside i don't think that's what we need right now. i reckon we got a bloke called williamson who's got his name on the carlton wing for the next 15 years

hopper and kennedy are the 2 i think we need to look at. both probably haven't as done as well this year as they would have expected.

 

[DangerousD]

Is Whitfield the sort of character we want around the club? Sos and Bolts look to be bringing in young players that are excellent people. Imo Whitfield is not.

Based on what?

 

[Sector 7G]

Many experts lately are worried Cripps could be wrecked by 26.

We could have followed the old Brock McLean playbook and gone hard at an injury prone, slow, inside mid in Prestia last year. Fortunately we now have SOS running the show.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Based on what?

Just my opinion or call it gut feel but the 6 month ban was his first mistake in his AFL career and I don't think it will be his last.

 

[therubbernub]

You're kidding yourself if you think clubs are going to let us have a free hit with BSOS.
Other clubs also know we will match the bid because we are getting a 25% discount

 

[therubbernub]

Is Whitfield the sort of character we want around the club? Sos and Bolts look to be bringing in young players that are excellent people. Imo Whitfield is not.

He's not the pariah , he's just a very naughty boy

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

He,s not the pariah , he,s just a very naughty boy

Something about him I don't like and do not want.