Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[SurreyBlue]

Just 1 more point as I know people will dismiss my point by raising the StKilda rebuild and model but just think where the Saints would be right now if Riewoldt had left and even more important the importance Goddard would be to their youngsters this and probably next year, let alone over the past few while rebuilding.

We just don't put enough value on that! StKilda with a Goddard would probably play finals this year and think what that would do to a young team. Something to think about........Betts, Tuohy, Garlett or Waite in out team right now!!!!

 

[Pafloyul]

I hope I don't get frustrated and depressed this trade period again.........Gibbs for anything over pick 10 and anything less than 2 picks in the top 20, would just about end my love for this sport and club. Sorry but I've just about had it with us giving away what we have of late. Yes, I don't cope well with watching our players star in other teams and god help me if they win a premiership elsewhere. There I said it!

This is not the Pagan and Maltouse years, if we trade players, we trade them for a reason.

 

[Red Bull]

I hope I don't get frustrated and depressed this trade period again.........Gibbs for anything over pick 10 and anything less than 2 picks in the top 20, would just about end my love for this sport and club. Sorry but I've just about had it with us giving away what we have of late. Yes, I don't cope well with watching our players star in other teams and god help me if they win a premiership elsewhere. There I said it!

Better buckle up ... or book some holidays .

 

[HARKER]

Just 1 more point as I know people will dismiss my point by raising the StKilda rebuild and model but just think where the Saints would be right now if Riewoldt had left and even more important the importance Goddard would be to their youngsters this and probably next year, let alone over the past few while rebuilding.

We just don't put enough value on that! StKilda with a Goddard would probably play finals this year and think what that would do to a young team. Something to think about........Betts, Tuohy, Garlett or Waite in out team right now!!!!

Surrey. I wouldn't be using the Saints as some sort of rebuild template.
Watched them close (at the ground) on the weekend and even the game against us. We'll be ahead of them next year.

I see a lot of gaps with the Saints right now, as I do with our team. Let's put the pieces together at years end and see what we come up with.

Funny how the experts keep bringing up the fact that St.Kilda have 2 first rounders this year..........without mentioning that they gave up one last year.
Their net gain is favourable as they basically got Steele for nothing in terms of trade, but they weren't simply handed a first for nothing.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Oh, what a sook

What about watching others' players play well for us? Docherty, Marchbank, Plowman, ASilvagni..........swings and roundabouts.
It's clear as to the 'types' that the club care to be part of the club now. Can't do much about the past.

Maybe.....

We are desperate for midfielders and have 1 classy ex-no.1 pick that can play for another 5 years at least and we want to trade him for a what point exactly? Just saying we need to think of how we can support these kids we draft and by moving on our experienced mids at that, just makes no sense. I don't agree with such a reset and I would hate for us flower this up as the club I have known and loved will be gone. Let's be a little careful and not try to outsmart ourselves here.

 

[HARKER]

Maybe.....

We are desperate for midfielders and have 1 classy ex-no.1 pick that can play for another 5 years at least and we want to trade him for a what point exactly? Just saying we need to think of how we can support these kids we depart and by moving on our experienced mids at that, just makes no sense. I don't agree with such a reset and I would hate for us flower this up as the club I have known and loved will be gone. Let's be a little careful and not try to outsmart ourselves here.

Yes. I agree that we fell behind for lack of attaining one mature mid through last trade period and this is where we have a huge 'catch-up' to perform.

We can now only comment on the outcome of the next trade period. That's where we stand.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Surrey. I wouldn't be using the Saints as some sort of rebuild template.
Watched them close (at the ground) on the weekend and even the game against us. We'll be ahead of them next year.

I see a lot of gaps with the Saints right now, as I do with our team. Let's put the pieces together at years end and see what we come up with.

Funny how the experts keep bringing up the fact that St.Kilda have 2 first rounders this year..........without mentioning that they gave up one last year.
Their net gain is favourable as they basically got Steele for nothing in terms of trade, but they weren't simply handed a first for nothing.

I agree actually but I've heard this argument raised many a times.

 

[Jimmae]

lt hard to see SOS knowing what band any offer for Kreuzer would trigger. We make an offer (say $500K for 2 years). Someone else offers more (and more importantly) for a longer term and Kreuze says "well I'm an unrestricted free agent which means I am not in Carltons current 25% highest paid players and they clearly still don't rate me" and leaves. We have no idea what the offer is or what band compo we would receive till the AFL announces it.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-

Band 1 - top 5% of salaries over 25
Band 3 - top 30% of salaries over 25

And as myself and others have pointed out he is an UFA, we have no direct control on Kreuzer's decision

We could offer him a 3 year deal at 900K a year. Dogs could offer a 2 year deal at 600K a year.

He could take the dogs offer, as he wants to play finals and possibly win a premiership medal

We have no control in that type of situation

This just underscores why I think people have rocks in their head as to how the list is supposed to look at the end of 2018. Murphy would be the only elite senior player left if we didn't have some serious aspirations this off-season.

 

[HARKER]

I agree actually but I've heard this argument raised many a times.

There's no argument in what I put forward, as I was only presenting facts.
Saints haven't been gifted a first for this year. They paid for it with a pick #10 last year........and one can put any name they care to, to that number; Powell-Pepper, Hayward, Berry, English.....and what about Williamson or Macreadie?
Their major gain was to attain a second rounder for free which netted them Steele.

 

[BuxbaumBixby]

Wonder if we could 'work' with Sydney to help them out. We'll take Jones ..... and Tippett ..... and send something below par their way for helping them fix their salary cap problem.

If we've got as much cap space as reported - we could grab Tippett for a year or two - and get Jones who would really fit our age profile.

 

[Red Bull]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-

Band 1 - top 5% of salaries over 25
Band 3 - top 30% of salaries over 25


This just underscores why I think people have rocks in their head as to how the list is supposed to look at the end of 2018. Murphy would be the only elite senior player left if we didn't have some serious aspirations this off-season.

Perhaps the plan is to lose Kruezer and Casboult for FA compo picks this year and then in the following years bring in targeted quality FA's which will add class and experience to round out our list .

 

[SurreyBlue]

There's no argument in what I put forward, as I was only presenting facts.
Saints haven't been gifted a first for this year. They paid for it with a pick #10 last year........and one can put any name they care to, to that number; Powell-Pepper, Hayward, Berry, English.....and what about Williamson or Macreadie?
Their major gain was to attain a second rounder for free which netted them Steele.

My argument statement was re: the StKilda rebuild not what they gave up. I would deeply laugh my ass off and have everything crossed Hawthorn now play finals and even push top 6 in the end. Bugger them!

 

[Jimmae]

Perhaps the plan is to lose Kruezer and Casboult for FA compo picks this year and then in the following years bring in targeted quality FA's which will add class and experience to round out our list .

Any particular reason why we'd turf one of the best rucks in the league for a 2nd round pick?

 

[Metalcrusher]

I still cant see the club NOT bringing in an age targeted FA this year ....

 

[HARKER]

My argument statement was re: the StKilda rebuild not what they gave up. I would deeply laugh my ass off and have everything crossed Hawthorn now play finals and even push top 6 in the end. Bugger them!

I think that St.Kilda & Hawthorn may have had an understanding and willingness to help one another in the way we had with GWS.

All good things come to an end though.

 

[Arr0w]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-

Band 1 - top 5% of salaries over 25
Band 3 - top 30% of salaries over 25


This just underscores why I think people have rocks in their head as to how the list is supposed to look at the end of 2018. Murphy would be the only elite senior player left if we didn't have some serious aspirations this off-season.

They are two different arguments, so let's just agree that we can't do a single thing if Kreuzer wants to leave.

As for people having rocks in their head, perhaps some people should stop worrying about the now and embrace this rebuild. We are 18 months away from the end of 2018, are you suggesting that none of our kids that we drafted over the last 2 years will be elite?

The club will stay the course despite what results we endure in the short term

 

[Benaly28]

Just 1 more point as I know people will dismiss my point by raising the StKilda rebuild and model but just think where the Saints would be right now if Riewoldt had left and even more important the importance Goddard would be to their youngsters this and probably next year, let alone over the past few while rebuilding.

We just don't put enough value on that! StKilda with a Goddard would probably play finals this year and think what that would do to a young team. Something to think about........Betts, Tuohy, Garlett or Waite in out team right now!!!!

Can we please move on from the 'who we let go'.All those desicions were right at the time.Betts was in the reserves,gartlett went against team protocol,we let touy go for basically Marchbank and waite is...well what Waite is hot and cold and does not fit our age profile and will never win a premiership.The ONLY one that hurts now is of course Betts.And yes there are others we also let go like Jacobs etc. hindsight is a wonderful thing!

 

[OZBomb]

This is just a theory, but do you think we're trying to lock Harry McKay into a long term deal before we play him in the the senior team? Once he's exposed at AFL level, with better delivery, there's every chance his price goes up.

 

[Jeremias]

Can we please move on from the 'who we let go'.All those desicions were right at the time.Betts was in the reserves

He was what?

 

[Sector 7G]

Any particular reason why we'd turf one of the best rucks in the league for a 2nd round pick?

Would also need to trade our 3rd rounder to try to find another Philips type ruck who is not getting a game somewhere. Gorringe probably won't be on the list and I can't see the Yank making it. Would still need to look for another ruck option but at least it gives a little time to try and develop a rookie.

 

[Red Bull]

Any particular reason why we'd turf one of the best rucks in the league for a 2nd round pick?

I like Kruezer like everyone else does .
Doesn't change the fact that he has a very battle scarred 29yo body and can just leave if he so chooses .
As the Menzel and Tuohy trades proved , Silvagni uses many different pieces to solve the puzzle during the trade period so nothing should be discounted .

 

[Metalcrusher]

He was what?

lol Benally needs to fact check before he posts

 

[BigFrizz36]

Surrey. I wouldn't be using the Saints as some sort of rebuild template.
Watched them close (at the ground) on the weekend and even the game against us. We'll be ahead of them next year.

I see a lot of gaps with the Saints right now, as I do with our team. Let's put the pieces together at years end and see what we come up with.

Funny how the experts keep bringing up the fact that St.Kilda have 2 first rounders this year..........without mentioning that they gave up one last year.
Their net gain is favourable as they basically got Steele for nothing in terms of trade, but they weren't simply handed a first for nothing.

Steele is pretty vanilla though. O.K. but nothing the sets him above the pack. Grigg like? Tackles well but just O.K. kick. GWS won't lose any sleep about losing him. Symptomatic as to why St.Kilda are struggling to be above a 50% team and desperately need a classy free agent.

 

[Jimmae]

They are two different arguments, so let's just agree that we can't do a single thing if Kreuzer wants to leave.

As for people having rocks in their head, perhaps some people should stop worrying about the now and embrace this rebuild. We are 18 months away from the end of 2018, are you suggesting that none of our kids that we drafted over the last 2 years will be elite?

The club will stay the course despite what results we endure in the short term

If Kreuzer walks and Gibbs is traded and we don't net a FA, we need all of them to wind up better than average, and 5 of them elite.

Would also need to trade our 3rd rounder to try to find another Philips type ruck who is not getting a game somewhere. Gorringe probably won't be on the list and I can't see the Yank making it. Would still need to look for another ruck option but at least it gives a little time to try and develop a rookie.

They'd want to be a hell of a lot better than what Phillips has done so far.

I like Kruezer like everyone else does .
Doesn't change the fact that he has a very battle scarred 29yo body and can just leave if he so chooses .
As the Menzel and Tuohy trades proved , Silvagni uses many different pieces to solve the puzzle during the trade period so nothing should be discounted .

It's not voodoo. There's a clear logic to it, and he ultimately overplayed his hand with Tuohy. In fact, the biggest 'wins' we've had so far in what SOS has done have been on-trading GWS future 2nd for those later picks (which was roughly equal on DVI points) and Yarran for pick 19 (Cuningham at what became pick 23).

By the end of next year, the net result of the Menzel trade might be Menzel for Plowman and Sumner. I still call that a win, but I can also recall being a bit miffed about what we would do with pick 28 to improve a list barren for elite skills. What us plebs were missing was the contract estimates of the GWS players and our relative cap position to the rest of the league after we'd sent 4 high-earning players out the door.

For years I'd been scratching my head at some of the trade valuations we'd seen for players in the AFL, and suddenly trades had started to make economic sense. Go back through my posts in this thread if you want an idea of what I think we'll do, and take note that we don't need to jettison anyone via free agency to accomplish it.

 

[DangerousD]

I agree. Probably best to sell high.

Except we don't get to sell. Only choice is match or not. It's unlikely he will get an offer to give us band 1 compensation.

So it's not as simple a choice.

What if he get offered a contract that will get us band 3? Can we pick up someone decent at pick 28ish?

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28ish? We are 17th. 22 right now