2017 trade/draft thread

[Spectore]

I think we should get this debate back on to a more fact based footing rather than an emotion based footing. It is boring reading posts from people running around trying to prove they are the clubs biggest supporter in the world by bagging those with less optimism about the future than them.

What are the fact based differences between those who think this is a good idea vrs those don't? Like i say, i think the odds of finding a successfull player with picks between 25 and 40 in any draft are no better than 1 in 8. And i think playing 120 games is a good marker of where a drafted player can be deemed to have been a success or not. And i think it is obvious that if this is a weak draft then those odds obviously blow out further.

Do the people backing this trade think that the odds of drafting a successfull player between picks 25 and 40 are better than 1 in 8 (and worse in a weak draft) and i am being pessismistic about the general odds? Or do you agree that this is a fair and accurate description of the odds but think that we are so good at drafting that we will be able to beat these odds and find successfull players with these picks anyway?

Using drafts 2000-2008 and picks 20-40 (excluding father/son selections):

Players taken: 175
Players with at least 120 games: 49

28%

 

[Jako Darling]

In anyone's language.

Just lost your midfield core, undoubtedly will slide down the table in 2018 on the back of a new midfield mix taking time to find it's feet, youngsters getting up to speed in the middle, slide down the ladder, that first round pick becomes more valuable.

Just gave it away - for some chump picks in a weaker draft, it's one of the worst decisions I've seen.

NN > Old Priddis & Mitchell

 

[Shmiddy15]

Also, isn't it a tad ironical that a freo fan comes onto our board and blasts us for trading away our first pick for the supposed super draft, after they traded away pick 1 in the greatest draft the game has ever seen? Speaking from experience I guess.

 

[Jako Darling]

Yeah, I'm sure NN tapping to Sheed will be pretty dynamic.

Sheed > Weller who was obviously worth pick 2.

 

[Beutbrute]

Yeah, I'm sure NN tapping to Sheed will be pretty dynamic.

Lol
NN tapping it to Sheed>Darcy loosing the ruck and not tapping it to Pearce

 

[tigger_ferret]

Also, isn't it a tad ironical that a freo fan comes onto our board and blasts us for trading away our first pick for the supposed super draft, after they traded away pick 1 in the greatest draft the game has ever seen? Speaking form experience I guess.

They also traded away rounds 2,3 & 4 next year.

So they only have 1 bite of the cherry in a Super draft in the first 4 rounds, pretty sure we have 4

 

[all that jazz]

They also traded away rounds 2,3 & 4 next year.

So they only have 1 bite of the cherry in a Super draft in the first 4 rounds, pretty sure we have 4

And in a draft full of talls - I assume they will take a mid with their 1st

 

[Shuestar13]

Some fantastic posts in here from Monocle, Asterix and Bond, really appreciate the insight of you guys! Can’t help but feel excited about this change of direction from the club so to speak, very happy with our work over the past fortnight. Now for the draft... Will be trying to read up as much as possible and be following this thread!

AsterixTheGaul, great response to our purple visitor. Completely agree with everything you wrote, except for the bit about them winning a premiership (I know what you mean, but the thought of that makes me feel slightly ill ).

Onwards and upwards, bring on the draft and let’s look forward to hopefully a very different WCE in 2018!

 

[flamingEMBERS]

So we could have a BrenDON and a BranDON (starcevich) by the end of next month

 

[Jako Darling]

I was wondering whether there were any talls that would stop us taking a midfielder as our first pick!

Oscar Allen only chance

 

[ronpingwins]

I don't think there was too much wrong with what Mincho was saying, and being a Freo fan is irrelevant, he didn't make any of their errors.

I really like our move overall but it is still a bigger gamble than we are letting on. The crux of the disagreement is that next year seems like it will have some particularly special talent at the top end in terms of talls. If we finish bottom four then we may have given up that opportunity for a few extra second rounders, which would be a very disappointing result. I'm a lot more bullish on our prospects for next year, but if we slip there is a missed opportunity.

 

[flamingEMBERS]

looked at some of starcevich's highlights, he looks a player. strong in the core. do want.

 

[Shmiddy15]

I don't think there was too much wrong with what Mincho was saying, and being a Freo fan is irrelevant, he didn't make any of their errors.

I really like our move overall but it is still a bigger gamble than we are letting on. The crux of the disagreement is that next year seems like it will have some particularly special talent at the top end in terms of talls. If we finish bottom four then we may have given up that opportunity for a few extra second rounders, which would be a very disappointing result. I'm a lot more bullish on our prospects for next year, but if we slip there is a missed opportunity.

Agree with all that, but he did also suggest it was close to the worst decision he'd ever seen though which is farcical. Gold Coast and Brissie made worse decisions today alone for example.

 

[Monocle]

I don't think there was too much wrong with what Mincho was saying, and being a Freo fan is irrelevant, he didn't make any of their errors.
.

It a troll account, so it is fair game for ridicule.
Just a bit of fun.

I really like our move overall but it is still a bigger gamble than we are letting on.

All drafting has elements of gambling attached to it.
Its a dark science of extrapolating and projecting how raw talent and character will develop and assessing what ceilings might be achieved.
History shows that there are many busts in the first round so draft position guaranteeing success is a bit of a furphy.

Example : Masten was highly rated and taken with pick # 3, whereas McGovern was passed over several times even by a Club who his father played for and eventually was taken as a rookie pick by us and even then it took him some time to find his feet. ( Much to Masto's displeasure ..... what ever happen to Masto was he banished or did he retreat in embarrassment when the Gov came good ??? )

I digress.

Back on topic so who now would you rate the better footballer now Masten or McGovern.

Thats the vagaries of drafting.

Some gambles come off : Hawthorn trading Burgoyne and Stewart Dew in.
Some don't : Tippett at the Swans.

Bottom line you need to back yourself in knowing you have a strategy and a plan.

Sometimes wrong .... but never in doubt.

Have the courage to see things through and then courage to change and review when its necessary
Admitting you got a strategy wrong and then changing or retweking it is not a sign of weakness, its a sign of vitality.

I think our Club has had a Culture shift in attitude towards trading and drafting, and as one who has recently been a harsh critic, I now applaud the change of attitude.

 

[Jako Darling]

Ben Lennon and Trent Mackenzie worth a look in free agency?

 

[Monocle]

I was wondering whether there were any talls that would stop us taking a midfielder as our first pick!

Welcome aboard .

Let me put it this way :
Would be an interesting conversation come draft day at the West Coast Table if all the rated mids are off the board by pick 13 but Naughton was still available.

Now that we have four picks in the second round at 21, 26, 32 and 37. There is still ample opportunity to address the midfield needs after pick 13.

IMO with our 5 picks in the top 37, I cant see us taking all mids / smalls I think a tall will be taken at some point and thats where the needs verses best available conundrum of drafting comes into play.

 

[Monocle]

Ben Lennon and Trent Mackenzie worth a look in free agency?

Pass.

Lennon only runs one way and is not a hard worker, rather give games to Waterman or Lamb.
Mackenzie plays a position we are long on, we don't need any more depth at HBF.

 

[jesterwester]

Pass.

Lennon only runs one way and is not a hard worker, rather give games to Waterman or Lamb.
Mackenzie plays a position we are long on, we don't need any more depth at HBF.

We are full of HBF's at the moment, sure- but it only takes an injury or two and all of a sudden the cupboard is a bit bare with quality, especially if Wellingham is delisted.

His kick makes him useful. IMO he is worth a look. Easy way to solve our midfield problems- let him kick it over the midfield from half back to Kennedy at FF.

Lennons not all that bad, there are plenty of less talented footballers that found new homes, but would be a pass from me as well. We were keen on him pre-draft iirc. Had sheed gone we would have picked him.

 

[swannies]

Spend a load of money getting better people in our drafting and development department than the ones we have had in charge for last 5 years for a start. Hard to have confidence trading for more picks when you look at the track record of the people who are going to be deciding who to use them on.

Colonel Kurtz, just let this play out and see where it goes before we start thinking the sun is setting on the world, per se. There seems to be a change of tack, let's see where it leads us. Then hang them, if you still want to.

 

[swannies]

My dig at Matt was light hearted, hard not to like the fella . I think most of us know the leaders in the "knob head" cup.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I thought I used to former lurker but after this week I am very confused......

 

[swannies]

More a recognition that the world is changing & one must move with the times.

Yep, much like the IT industry BOND 007 stagnate and die, is what I learned a few years ago.

 

[Crimson King]

Let's not forget Rawlings was a senior recruiter at Norf before he came to us so he knows his shit and I'm quite confident he will add alot of value to our recruitment strategy/direction.

 

[Coasters7]

Giving up a first round pick, in a superdraft for a 2nd rounders in what has been described as a weak draft, is mind boggling.

So we just sit on our ass for 2018 and tank ala freo? Meanwhile our generational kpps and rucks are wasting away. We could still potentially have a pick in the teens/early 20s next year, to go with our nice little pickup of mids (hopefully 1 or 2 mature agers) from this year.

Looking to hold ground at least next year (or hopefully see improvement) and have a real crack at it in 2019/20 before the full rebuild starts.

From your point of view Id be more concerned what you're going to do when freo blows its two top 10s on brander and naughton.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

The cretins on FB out in force.

I especially like the fan that suggests Freo snared 2 so they can use either 2 or 5 on Liam Ryan, who won’t be there at 13.

 

[The Stid]

The cretins on FB out in force.

I especially like the fan that suggests Freo snared 2 so they can use either 2 or 5 on Liam Ryan, who won’t be there at 13.

I saw one poster say we made this trade purely to be able to get Ryan and for no other reason.