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List Mgmt. 2017 Trade & FA Targets Part 1

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St Neil said:
Two first round draft picks?
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Did someone suggest that? I think pick 3 is about what it would take, but fair value is pick 3 plus a pick in the 30s or similar.

If the choice was between taking a chance on a kid at pick 3 and getting Kelly with pick 3, the club would be negligent and incompetent to take the pick to the draft. Kelly is 95% certain of being an A-grader, injuries the only possible thing stopping him. Pick 3 is about 50% chance of being an A-grader, maybe 5% chance of being better than Kelly.
 
Glen Buterol said:
Get Kelly. I have bugger all trust in our recruiters & development coaches atm. Kelly is ready to go.
Click to expand...
Who are Development coaches at the moment ?
 
bergholt said:
Did someone suggest that? I think pick 3 is about what it would take, but fair value is pick 3 plus a pick in the 30s or similar.

If the choice was between taking a chance on a kid at pick 3 and getting Kelly with pick 3, the club would be negligent and incompetent to take the pick to the draft. Kelly is 95% certain of being an A-grader, injuries the only possible thing stopping him. Pick 3 is about 50% chance of being an A-grader, maybe 5% chance of being better than Kelly.
Click to expand...

I suggested two 1st RDPs with a second coming back in a previous post, but keeping a low pick such as pick 3 that we take to the draft.

We both rate Kelly very highly but disagree on the picks we use to trade him in. I explained my rationale but I can see arguments to support your argument. But I couldn't stomach us trading a very early 1st RDP for him (top 5) when we've had so few of them.

My view is that the academy that GWS has been gifted does open the door to creatively trade 1st RDPs without having to sacrifice a very early early 1st RDP. The value of the picks for them is more than the value of one pick, but the spread of picks over multiple years that they can use to match bids for local talent.

Of course all of this supposition is meaningless if Hawks start to win more games. But if they lose their next 3-4 games that becomes a real possibility as they begin to turn their list over.
 

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Glen Buterol said:
Get Kelly. I have bugger all trust in our recruiters & development coaches atm. Kelly is ready to go.
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I went back through some draft top 10s and there is a pretty low strike rate considering the science is supposedly improving. Dogs nailed the draft getting Mc Crae and Stringer who were the two best in the top 10 that year. Then backed it with Bont. GWS had 3 first picks and got Whitfield, Plowman and Jono O'Rourke. One average to good player, one average and one spud.
 
gringo2011 said:
I went back through some draft top 10s and there is a pretty low strike rate considering the science is supposedly improving. Dogs nailed the draft getting Mc Crae and Stringer who were the two best in the top 10 that year. Then backed it with Bont. GWS had 3 first picks and got Whitfield, Plowman and Jono O'Rourke. One average to good player, one average and one spud.
Click to expand...

Melbourne also nailed a few early picks. Although Brayshaw looks a worse pick 3 than Billings at this stage.
 
St Neil said:
I think we are in furious agreement, but my point is we don't cave in to the price that the trading partner demands.

Pick 3 for GWS is just another bloody 1st RDP that they continue to rack up year after year. Whereas, for us they are like gold.

We keep pick 3 in such a scenario. Bugger them. It's important for us. But we have other collateral that could get the deal done and we trade fairly and responsibly to achieve it. If we put an electric fence around pick 3 then we can still do the deal.

Maybe I'm just a pig headed negotiator. So I know others will disagree.
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I agree with you 100%. Including a pick like 3 in a trade for someone like Kelly would be a last resort type move.

Highly unlikely that you'd only be able to have one and not the other, unless we need to pull off another big trade or two.

In which case if it's Kelly or pick 3 I doubt I would hesitate to trade it for Kelly- especially if our drafting/development is still looking iffy at the end of the season.
 

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  • Mowman said:
    Who are Development coaches at the moment ?
    Click to expand...
    ..........2010 Draft : 24 - Cripps , 43 - Crocker , 59 - Ledger , 75 - Siposs , 90 -Gamble.......................................................................................................................2011 Draft : 25 - Ross , 35 - Markworth , 37 - Newnes , 42 - Webster , 60 - Lever , 68 - Maister ,..............................................................................................................................2012 Draft : 24 - Wright , 25 - S.White , 40 - Murdoch , 43 - Saunders , 75 - Pierce , 90 - Dunell ...............................................................................................................................2013 Draft : 3 - Billings , 18 - Dunstan , 19 - Acres , 83 - Curran ...............................................................................................................................2014 Draft : 1 - McCartin , 21 - Goddard , 22 - McKenzie , 41 - Lonie ................................................................................................................................2015 Draft : 18 - Gresham , 40 - B.White , 49 - Rice...........................................................................................................................2016 Draft : 25 - Long , 39 - Battle , 56 - Phillips
 
Last edited:
bergholt said:
Not many worth decent picks who we'd be happy to lose, by my guess:

10-20: McCartin
10-25: Carlisle, Gresham, Steven
15-30: Billings, Hickey
20-40: Armitage, Bruce, Longer, Membrey, Newnes, Ross, Steele
30-50: Acres, Dunstan, Geary, Roberton, Savage
40-60: Battle, Goddard, Long, Webster, Weller
65+: Holmes, McKenzie, Stevens, Wright
no value: Connellan, Coughlan, Freeman, Joyce, Lonie, Marshall, Minchington, O'Kearney, Phillips, Piece, Rice, Sinclair, White
Click to expand...

Based on that rating we should be giving Hawthorn a run for 18th.




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saintsrfreak said:
Why would he wanna leave as long as he's playing in the ones though?
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Barracked for the Bombers, parents are coterie Bombers members, always wanted to play for the Bombers until he was drafted by us & the Bombers have wanted him since he was drafted.

He'd easily walk into their best 22 too

Probably won't happen, but I have this shit feeling that it could happen
 
Rors said:
Barracked for the Bombers, parents are coterie Bombers members, always wanted to play for the Bombers until he was drafted by us & the Bombers have wanted him since he was drafted.

He'd easily walk into their best 22 too

Probably won't happen, but I have this shit feeling that it could happen
Click to expand...
Well he is a top three pick and potential AA.
Bombers first rounder or we will Hawk him about and see what we can get.

Perhaps leak everything to the papers and our pet journos.
Maybe Parish for him
 
If he gains form, he'll be worth a top 10 pick. We'd go to town with 3 firsts this year. Land a big fish and still hit the draft.
 
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