List Mgmt. 2017 Trade & FA Targets Part 2

[saint66au]

We will trade a ruckman this year which will net us a late 1st/early 2nd.

Put yourself in Ameets shoes on the last day of trade week...
Josh Kelly, fresh off his first AA and top 3 brownlow finish... has knocked back north and nominated the saints.
...who would have won finals in 2017 if only poor little jack steven had some help.

No way ameet says no, when gws say "2 first rounders please".
Especially when ameet remembers that pick 4 only cost us pick 10

No way on Gods green earth will we get that a late first round pick for Hickey or Longer. We will be shopping them rather than other Clubs calling. Mid 2nd at best

 

[Joffaboy]

Not Sloan, not Lever

Louis Slungpoo will love us getting Jenkins

 

[Joffaboy]

No way on Gods green earth will we get that a late first round pick for Hickey or Longer. We will be shopping them rather than other Clubs calling. Mid 2nd at best

We got 21 for Stanley and both Longer and Hickey are better than Stanley as ruckmen.

 

[Mowman]

Not Sloan, not Lever

Both Crouch brothers signed up?

 

[saint66au]

We got 21 for Stanley and both Longer and Hickey are better than Stanley as ruckmen.

21 for Stanley was a steal of Packer/Bond proportions

 

[Yawkey way]

Is it Brodie smith.

 

[The_Steadier]

Not Sloan, not Lever

Mclovin!

 

[The_Steadier]

We werent trying to trade for Fyfe last year... Carlton had a fair crack but I havent heard anything that suggests that we had a massive go.

We tried to turn our 2017 pick into an early pick in last year's draft. That's not going after mids desperately & missing out on them causing more desperation in my book.

Either way, we need class in the guts now & Jelly Kelly is priority #1

EAD Norfies

Cmon stavro#4 back me up on this one

 

[Glen Buterol]

Probably bloody Andy Otten who is OOC & a FA

 

[stavro#4]

Cmon stavro#4 back me up on this one

Last year we didn't have a crack at Fyfe. We made our interest known. The year before we made a huge crack at Shiel and Treloar. This year we spoke with Fyfe Shiel and jelly. I believe we spoke with dusty but I don't believe anything came of that. Something about dusty has always spooked us

 

[aussierulesrules]

Not Sloan, not Lever

Playing tonight?

 

[VDS66]

Not Sloan, not Lever

Cruel bastard...

 

[Joffaboy]

21 for Stanley was a steal of Packer/Bond proportions

Regardless, thats what we got. We tend to overprice other players and underprice our own.

 

[PrinceofSeaford]

first name is Rory so must be Atkins

 

[aussierulesrules]

Haven't seen much of Adelaide this year, but I imagine we could do worse than Otten, who has been good enough to play every game for them this year and has taken over 4 times more contested marks for the year than Bruce (albeit from 3 more games) and has gotten more hitouts than Bruce got all year last year (despite probably having only rucked in 5-6 games).

We'd presumably be planning on playing him down back if we got him though of course, although it would be questionable as to whether he'd be any better than Gilbo, who is currently going really well. Fair upgrade in the ruck contests possibly though (11 hitouts in one game this year and a 5 and a 6, whereas Gilbo has just 7 in total, from 5 games of back-up rucking).

 

[Half Back Pocket]

Not Sloan, not Lever

Ameet has made a huge mistake and signed Jake Kelly instead of Josh!!

 

[gringo2011]

Mclovin!

He gave a like to someone suggesting Rory but even Laird is contracted another year.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

21 for Stanley was a steal of Packer/Bond proportions

So what's Hickey's worth if a club with a late 1st round pick is keen to trade for him but doesn't have a mid 2nd rounder? Or a late 2nd rounder? Do we give him up for less that he's worth or hold out until the buyer pays slightly over?

We're talking about a max of 9 picks between late 1st & mid 2nd anyway... Just sayin' it's funny how we can be adamant what a player's worth is yet when it comes down to it, it all comes down to what a club has to trade.

If the Filth hadn't already acquired Jolly from the Swans for pick 14, I have no doubt that #14 would have been heading our way for Ball. They didn't have 14 so guess what? Here you go Sainters, take pick 30 or lose him for nothing.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I reckon if there are any clubs looking for established ruck talent for their no.1 role Goldstein will be their target. North will want to ensure Preuss doesn't get disgruntled and leave for more opportunities.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Haven't seen much of Adelaide this year, but I imagine we could do worse than Otten, who has been good enough to play every game for them this year and has taken over 4 times more contested marks for the year than Bruce (albeit from 3 more games) and has gotten more hitouts than Bruce got all year last year (despite probably having only rucked in 5-6 games).

We'd presumably be planning on playing him down back if we got him though of course, although it would be questionable as to whether he'd be any better than Gilbo, who is currently going really well. Fair upgrade in the ruck contests possibly though (11 hitouts in one game this year and a 5 and a 6, whereas Gilbo has just 7 in total, from 5 games of back-up rucking).

Otten makes Jason Blake look like the most co-ordinated player in the world.

Just a GOP & hopefully we're past recruiting them... he's maybe a shade better than Cam Pedersen.

 

[The_Steadier]

Otten makes Jason Blake look like the most co-ordinated player in the world.

Just a GOP & hopefully we're past recruiting them... he's maybe a shade better than Cam Pedersen.

He's been serviceable as a ruck who actually kicks goals when resting fwd.

We haven't had a ruck that does that since spider.

Otten would be an ok get for free to fill a need- like brown has been this year.
Moot point anyway, i assume it's atkins

 

[Flandersss]

Hearing it's David McKay.

 

[Glen Buterol]

Hearing it's David McKay.

Crows fans wish

 

[plugger66]

CrustyUndies is correct.

You have 2 random coin tosses. There are only 4 possible sequences that can occur:

HH
HT
TH
TT

From these we can observe that in at least 3 scenarios we flip a head (or land a gun player in this case). In other words a 75% chance. We have 1 scenario where we land 2 guns (a 25% chance), and 1 scenario where we also land 2 spuds (also a 25% chance).

Even if you drop the underlying assumption to 20% chance of landing a star per crack at it, the sum of the first 3 options is still 36% chance of securing a gun. So effectively better than 1 in 3 chance. Not amazing, but hardly a long shot.

That's fine for that example but unlike heads or tails you can't have a good and bad player as one option. You are either good or bad. It's 50% chance whether you have 2 picks or 7 picks if we are working on a top 20 in the draft


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[Groin guru]

Good to see Jack already has his travel arrangements sorted.

If Steele being good friends with Kelly = coming to StK

What does being friends with this many equal?