AFL 2018 - AFL Round 18

[Robo87]

Not saying you are doing this but just something ive noticed others doing on here recently is comparing different bookmaker odds to determine if a player is value with this bet type and the number of disposals bets. Just because Sportsbet are offering rancid odds about a player doesnt mean the odds at B365 are value just because they are much higher. Sportsbet in particular set those markets hugely in their favour to the point where there is no value about anything unless you can pick up on some sort if edge with a player changing positions

Yeah i understand you and I dont commonly take that path for picking a multi GS , however when it comes to Sydney alot of the time they kick it to buddy in the fwd line (sorry i dont know the official stats on it). It may have changed slightly since ronke's come in and the occasional one from hayward, but other than that not many others have kicked multiples - and hence i like buddy for 3 or 4. however probably not going to take a bet on buddy for goals - as like you said theres clearly no value.
You can however use the reverse thinking and look at some players that a bookie (ie SB) raises high odds on and use that as thinking SB dont think those players will get touches/ kick goals. Then u can check the stats and role changes and see if u can pick a loophole to benefit from.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

One that has a bit of value this week will be Callum Sinclair to kick 3+ for us. Expect Darcy Cameron to ruck for a good portion just to give Sinclair a bit of a rest this week.

 

[come on oliver]

What do you think of ladbrokes promo. Max $20 but Riewoldt to kick 3+ $3.50?

 

[Red Dog Styles]

What do you think of ladbrokes promo. Max $20 but Riewoldt to kick 3+ $3.50?

Im on it. Will enjoy the game more, can only lose $20 maximum so a fun bet.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[tigertigertiger]

Im on it. Will enjoy the game more, can only lose $20 maximum so a fun bet.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

It all adds up

 

[ontheroad]

C'mon rain/wind etc:
2u WC/WB Under 152.5 @ $1.90 (SB)
0.5u (Bonus Bet) WC under 60pts @ $11 (SB)
2u WC under 90.5 @ $1.90 (SB)

FYI I use http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/ as a good source of predicted weather events for a future day/time.

 

[tigertigertiger]

over 172.5 tonight, 0 units

 

[RooTed]

over 172.5 tonight, 0 units

It's a tough TGS.. Stats say u by 3 or 4 but can see easy over at Etihad. Staying away on this one.


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[tigertigertiger]

It's a tough TGS.. Stats say u by 3 or 4 but can see easy over at Etihad. Staying away on this one.


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I love overs at Etihad every game, we usually have shootouts with the saints from memory, jack loves to kick a bag, he shall for cuz tonight!

 

[RooTed]

I love overs at Etihad every game, we usually have shootouts with the saints from memory, jack loves to kick a bag, he shall for cuz tonight!

Probably.. As a rookie what does 0 units mean? Kinda thought it meant expect that to win but putting nothing on it?

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[tigertigertiger]

Probably.. As a rookie what does 0 units mean? Kinda thought it meant expect that to win but putting nothing on it?

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It's my pick, but I haven't bet it

units are a measure, some make 1 unit = $100, it's an individual choice. So if I was a high roller, and my units were measured by 10k, a 0.5 unit bet is a 5k bet

 

[RooTed]

It's my pick, but I haven't bet it

units are a measure, some make 1 unit = $100, it's an individual choice. So if I was a high roller, and my units were measured by 10k, a 0.5 unit bet is a 5k bet

No worries. I like over tonight too but not touching it. Have a good night. I like Tigers to get over line now that it's dropped to 33.5. Expect 40+ .5u

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[demon_fanatic]

I'm suprised the drift on GWS with Port outs

 

[chrisdon16]

It's my pick, but I haven't bet it

units are a measure, some make 1 unit = $100, it's an individual choice. So if I was a high roller, and my units were measured by 10k, a 0.5 unit bet is a 5k bet

If it's a pick why wouldn't you bet anything?

 

[tigertigertiger]

If it's a pick why wouldn't you bet anything?

Is there some unspoken law here?

 

[lids2richo]

Hey guys long time reader of this punting board but haven't posted much. Weird multi this week, Tiges Swans Hawks Bombers Eagles to lead at every quarter into Crows and Cats on the line. Good luck to everyone

 

[chrisdon16]

Is there some unspoken law here?

No law. But if you like the over and it's an official play why no bet?

 

[mookieb]

Looks a good round for betting and got on a few early in the week:

Geel -7.5. 21-0 at Skilled (excluding Syd). Been far superior in big games than Melbourne who are starting to lose some quality (Hibberd, Lever, Viney) at the time Geel gets some back (Henderson, Menzel).

Coll -11.5. Both teams haven't really gone well against top 8 teams, but Coll has been superior on the season and i'm keen to oppose NM who haven't really impressed over the last 5 games. They don't have the depth to cover the loss of Wood, Waite and Jacobs and lost to a depleted Syd despite days out from Majak (4 goals) and Ziebell (5 goals).

StK +39.5. In good form and at ES. Won't win but should cover that line with Rich missing a few key players.

Ade -5.5. Got Bris horribly wrong last week, but I feel a drop in intensity is coming after 3 big weeks. I expect Ade to kick on with confidence from their great win so they should cover with a finals spot on the line. With players back starting to look like the team that made the GF last year.

WC -40.5. Think WC are the bet of the round coming off a great win vs WB with a dispirited 2nd half against Melb. WB typically get pumped against good teams and WC should have a field day except the weather looks not good and i'll have to reassess closer to game time.

GWS +11.5 + H2H. Really hoping that Gray is a late out after all he was knocked cold. Jonas and Ryder missing so a fair bit of upper end talent if all 3 don't play against a team playing pretty well.

 

[tigertigertiger]

No law. But if you like the over and it's an official play why no bet?

Unwritten law, don’t post picks that aren’t bets

Maybe you’d rather I say I bet a huge amount and then delete it later if it loses


Oh yeeah

 

[chrisdon16]

Unwritten law, don’t post picks that aren’t bets

Maybe you’d rather I say I bet a huge amount and then delete it later if it loses


Oh yeeah

Haha. We'll leave that to capperscap....

I don't think I'm understanding what you're doing tonight with the over. You like the over and it's a pick, but not betting any money?

 

[sledbomber]

Unwritten law, don’t post picks that aren’t bets

Maybe you’d rather I say I bet a huge amount and then delete it later if it loses


Oh yeeah

I didn't have an issue with you posting a bet and not putting money down.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Richmond coming off a six-day break, in Sydney (i.e. have to sleep over due to airport curfew or whatever it is called), a game they lost...

St. Kilda in their best form of the season, up against a mob they rolled by 10 goals in the corresponding match last year...

Put me down for 0.5U on St Kilda straight up and another 0.5U on St. Kilda -29.5.

Also a cheeky 0.1U bet on Gresham 3+ goals into St. Kilda into O172.

I'm feeling lucky.

REMEMBER: I'm down a lot of units this season. A lot. Boy have I got some 'hard luck' stories to tell but at the end of the day, I am just a mug punter. Thank christ I learned about bankroll management back in the day, so I could minimise my losses across the season to a responsible amount (i.e. much less than I would spend on drinking or movies or whatever, if they were my hobbies instead of betting on men kicking a ball around a field).

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Fwiw i have $5 on each tigers players on disposals overs in sportsbets exotic. Plus $20 on Roo2 for 3+ goals @3.50

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[Robo87]

What do you think of ladbrokes promo. Max $20 but Riewoldt to kick 3+ $3.50?

He's been learning how to share around his toys this year - Will probably hand off a few, but i'll tail for a guy whos kicked 3+ on 7 occasions this year.

 

[tigertigertiger]

I didn't have an issue with you posting a bet and not putting money down.

Really wasn’t that hard to understand was it