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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 21

Who Covers The Line This Week?

  • Total voters
    24
  • Poll closed .

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Sabbathen said:
What exactly do they have to prove at the MCG? They’ve won both games there this year. It’s a bit unrealistic to put any real weight on a record at a ground they only play at twice a year. In the last 3 years(inclusive of this year) the Eagles record at the MCG is 3 wins 4 losses. I would imagine most non WA teams would have a similar, if not worse record playing the Eagles in Perth yet do we ever hear about how a Victorian club can’t win in Perth?
What about the Swans, a week ago they couldn’t win at the SCG and yet they started favourites against Collingwood, a team well above them on the ladder at the time. Saw a lot of recreational punters jumping on Collingwood off the back of this apparently ingrained mental inability of the Swans to win at home.
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Excluding this year where it's perceived that WC should be better at the MCG given that Optus is similar dimensions, WC's performance at the line has been:

Haven't covered the spread by margins - 64.5, 23.5, 41.5, 26.5, 24.5

Has covered the spread by margin - +22.5

Included in your wins quoted figure is 2 game against Carl with winning margins of 7 and 10 points.

This year has been inconclusive - terrible against Carl but excellent against Coll.

I haven't included the GF where they were terrible.

As for the Swans I doubt anyone thinks that they have "ingrained mental inability" to win at home to me it simply seems that there is an established trend that their performances have been sub-standard at home. As for starting favourites against Coll - if anyone bet on Syd to win against Coll then you should be quoting a favourite saying of mine "that's it's better to be lucky than good".
 

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mookieb said:
Excluding this year where it's perceived that WC should be better at the MCG given that Optus is similar dimensions, WC's performance at the line has been:

Haven't covered the spread by margins - 64.5, 23.5, 41.5, 26.5, 24.5

Has covered the spread by margin - +22.5

Included in your wins quoted figure is 2 game against Carl with winning margins of 7 and 10 points.

This year has been inconclusive - terrible against Carl but excellent against Coll.

I haven't included the GF where they were terrible.

As for the Swans I doubt anyone thinks that they have "ingrained mental inability" to win at home to me it simply seems that there is an established trend that their performances have been sub-standard at home. As for starting favourites against Coll - if anyone bet on Syd to win against Coll then you should be quoting a favourite saying of mine "that's it's better to be lucky than good".
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Not sure what covering the spread has to do with the win loss record at the MCG I quoted... If you said they haven't played at the MCG as well as the market says they should have in the past, that's fair enough. I was referring to their ability to simply win the game though and pointing out how the media often run with an agenda so it becomes public opinion and then influences people's betting, usually for the worse. Go back and read the first couple of pages of the round 20 thread and tell me there weren't a number of people completely sucked in by that recent SCG record.
 
Sabbathen said:
Not sure what covering the spread has to do with the win loss record at the MCG I quoted... If you said they haven't played at the MCG as well as the market says they should have in the past, that's fair enough. I was referring to their ability to simply win the game though and pointing out how the media often run with an agenda so it becomes public opinion and then influences people's betting, usually for the worse. Go back and read the first couple of pages of the round 20 thread and tell me there weren't a number of people completely sucked in by that recent SCG record.
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The performance against the spread indicates how well they have performed against a set metric. Their results have been terrible. Beating Carl twice by 10 points or less only might make you're win / loss ratio look better but in reality it's an awful result.

I'm assuming posters here look at other factors apart from the ground they are playing on, but if you picked Coll at the line you won and if you picked them to win then you experienced some very bad variance. There was no indicator pointing to a Syd win early in the week, although the loss of Howe and McVeigh and Jack in helped swing it somewhat closer to a more competitive performance from Syd. Just because the better team lost doesn't mean the bet was a bad one.

In effect Syd playing at home coming off 2 losses, played a team without virtually all of their key backs out, only to lose their final key back, playing 1 short, playing a rookie on Buddy at times, gifted 2 goals, needing a herculean match winning performance from Buddy and then can only win when McCartin kicks a miracle goal in the last minutes while lying on the ground. That doesn't scream a team with a 2 or 3 goal HGA like some interstate teams.
 
andwhenitcomes said:
3-10 mm, coupled with Port Adelaide’s fairly lacklustre offence and West Coast’s defence.
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yeh nice im on the under 151.5 with weather forecast for all of the day before too as well as game day... i see this 151.5 lowering a fair bit so chance to middle it if there's a chance it ends up dry by game time like the derby did after early forecasts of it being wet... We saw how West Coast went against North without Kennedy and now they lose Gaff too an elite disposal player, they play Adelaide Oval ok though but I think yeh both defences are solid enough to keep this fairly low scoring.
 
demon_fanatic said:
yeh nice im on the under 151.5 with weather forecast for all of the day before too as well as game day... i see this 151.5 lowering a fair bit so chance to middle it if there's a chance it ends up dry by game time like the derby did after early forecasts of it being wet... We saw how West Coast went against North without Kennedy and now they lose Gaff too an elite disposal player, they play Adelaide Oval ok though but I think yeh both defences are solid enough to keep this fairly low scoring.
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Yeah that's it. Even without rain can't see this going over 150 with both teams needing to win. Should be a pretty intense contested battle.
 
Like Hawks/Cats TGS O150.5 and GWS/Crows TGS O152.5. Both 1.90 at SB. Also like Eagles on the line +15.5 for 1.92 also at SB.

Ave. scores for each team at the end of Round 20 (with their one highest and lowest game removed) as below.

upload_2018-8-9_13-46-12.png
 
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srobbo said:
<164.5 Freo- Carl $1.91

2nd & 4th lowest scoring teams, can see this being a 12 goals to 9 snore fest & struggle to break 140.

Even an extended line to 174.5 for $1.50 is a pretty solid leg to add.
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I like this one, I did under 160 $2.10. However i feel they will really approach 160 if not exceed it with Carlton being easy to score against, hence why I didnt do 150 or under at $2.90.

So what is ur prediction?
 

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Don’t mind Richmond to win every quarter $1.95 (TAB), $1.90 (UBET).

Prefer this over the line as I think there is a possibility they take the foot off the gas, but at the same time I doubt they’d lose control of the match at any point.
 
dees went 5 from 9 without gawn last year

wins against adel in adel, dogs, gc, coll and ess

losses to hawks, freo at the g, north and rich (anzac eve when they had no bench for last quarter)

all 4 losses at the g, 1 win at the g

dont know if that changes things or not, maybe more look at sinclair dt and sc points
 

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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 21

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