MVP 2018 Brownlow discussion

[catempire]

Have it out here.

Note: Red Carpet discussion, photos, etc. goes here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2018-brownlow-red-carpet.1205661/

 

[FISTO]

Parsons a smokey

 

[BUSTER29]

Have it out here.

Note: Red Carpet discussion, photos, etc. goes here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2018-brownlow-red-carpet.1205661/

You have any $ on anyone or anything at Brownlow tonight CE?

 

[catempire]

You have any $ on anyone or anything at Brownlow tonight CE?

Not yet. Will post some thoughts later. Will probably focus on the more novel markets given Mitchell is $1.50.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

 

[Spazz Cat]

Think Danger will win. Got him at 34$$$$
Got Sidebottom and The great Zoeko for the top 3.

 

[cats_09]

OBSCURE BETS WITH TAB ON THE 2018 BROWNLOW MEDAL

$500 at $501 on Jake Stringer to win for a $250,500 collect

$50 at $5,001 on Chad Wingard to win for a $250,050 collect

$40 each-way at $2,501/$626 on Alex Rance for a $125,080 collect

$50 at $2,501 on Alex Rance to win for a $125,050 collect

$20 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Chad Wingard for a $125,040 collect

$20 at $5,001 on Jake Stringer to win, $10 at $1,251 to place for a $112,530 collect

$30 at $2,501 on Tom Bellchambers to win, $50 at $626 to place for a $106,330 collect

$200 at $501 on Tom Liberatore to win for a $100,200 collect

$200 at $501 on Scott Pendlebury to win for a $100,200 collect

$150 each-way at $501/$126 on Jake Lloyd for a $94,050 collect

$100 each-way at $501/$126 on Jake Lloyd for a $62,700 collect

$50 each-way at $1,001/$251 on Paul Seedsman for a $62,600 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Taylor Adams for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Chad Wingard for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Touk Miller for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Jack Ziebell for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Nathan Jones for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Alex Rance for a $62,520 collect (2 different bets)

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Justin Westhoff for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Jared Polec for a $62,520 collect

$10 at $5,001 on Jack Ziebell to win, $5 at $1,251 to place for a $56,265 collect

$8 at $5,001 on Alex Rance to win, $12 at $1,251 to place for a $55,020 collect

$20 at $2,501 on Taylor Adams to win for a $50,200 collect

$200 at $251 on Bryce Gibbs to win for a $50,200 collect

$100 at $501 on Jarryd Lyons to win for a $50,100 collect

$50 at $1,001 on Shane Edwards to win for a $50,050 collect

$10 at $5,001 on Tom Rockliff to win for a $50,010 collect

$10 at $5,001 on Jack Viney to win for a $50,010 collect (2 different bets)

$10 at $5,001 on Jack Ziebell to win for a $50,010 collect (4 different bets)

$10 at $5,001 on Nathan Jones to win for a $50,010 collect

$10 at $5,001 on Justin Westhoff to win for a $50,010 collect

 

[Spazz Cat]

OBSCURE BETS WITH TAB ON THE 2018 BROWNLOW MEDAL

$500 at $501 on Jake Stringer to win for a $250,500 collect

$50 at $5,001 on Chad Wingard to win for a $250,050 collect

$40 each-way at $2,501/$626 on Alex Rance for a $125,080 collect

$50 at $2,501 on Alex Rance to win for a $125,050 collect

$20 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Chad Wingard for a $125,040 collect

$20 at $5,001 on Jake Stringer to win, $10 at $1,251 to place for a $112,530 collect

$30 at $2,501 on Tom Bellchambers to win, $50 at $626 to place for a $106,330 collect

$200 at $501 on Tom Liberatore to win for a $100,200 collect

$200 at $501 on Scott Pendlebury to win for a $100,200 collect

$150 each-way at $501/$126 on Jake Lloyd for a $94,050 collect

$100 each-way at $501/$126 on Jake Lloyd for a $62,700 collect

$50 each-way at $1,001/$251 on Paul Seedsman for a $62,600 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Taylor Adams for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Chad Wingard for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Touk Miller for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Jack Ziebell for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Nathan Jones for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Alex Rance for a $62,520 collect (2 different bets)

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Justin Westhoff for a $62,520 collect

$10 each-way at $5,001/$1,251 on Jared Polec for a $62,520 collect

$10 at $5,001 on Jack Ziebell to win, $5 at $1,251 to place for a $56,265 collect

$8 at $5,001 on Alex Rance to win, $12 at $1,251 to place for a $55,020 collect

$20 at $2,501 on Taylor Adams to win for a $50,200 collect

$200 at $251 on Bryce Gibbs to win for a $50,200 collect

$100 at $501 on Jarryd Lyons to win for a $50,100 collect

$50 at $1,001 on Shane Edwards to win for a $50,050 collect

$10 at $5,001 on Tom Rockliff to win for a $50,010 collect

$10 at $5,001 on Jack Viney to win for a $50,010 collect (2 different bets)

$10 at $5,001 on Jack Ziebell to win for a $50,010 collect (4 different bets)

$10 at $5,001 on Nathan Jones to win for a $50,010 collect

$10 at $5,001 on Justin Westhoff to win for a $50,010 collect

Why are so many people betting on Wingard? Am I missing something here?

 

[cats_09]

Why are so many people betting on Wingard? Am I missing something here?

No idea, but I'm hoping the bet placed on Libba was before the season started as he did his ACL in round 1

 

[Spazz Cat]

No idea, but I'm hoping the bet placed on Libba was before the season started as he did his ACL in round 1

Yeah I had a laugh at that one.

 

[BUSTER29]

Not yet. Will post some thoughts later. Will probably focus on the more novel markets given Mitchell is $1.50.

Yep.
$1.50 is very short. Think Mitchell will get over the line,but it could be very close.
Having a look through the separate team odds at the moment looking for some value.
As it stands i have $10 on each of Dusty,Gawn,Oliver and Yeo straight up for the Brownlow.

 

[nananana catman]

Don't know why, but I like Kelly as most votes for us tonight as a cheeky smokey bet. Under the umpires noses and gets on with it minus the fuss of the big three. Expect him to poll pretty well. $15 to do so is worth a little nibble.

 

[cynical]

cant really go past Mitchell, I wouldn't bet on him @$1.50 cos he isn't flashy enough to be guaranteed 3 votes every time he gets 40 possessions (not a lock like Danger or Dusty were), if the umps like him he will win by 10

The AFL brownlow predictor (normally a pretty good indicator) has Mitchell only getting 21 votes, which seems rather low considering all his big games.

As a roughie I'd go with Oliver, rucks normally dont poll well so he could take votes off Gawn.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

 

[Zouz Kitty]

 

[cats_09]

This could be something different to track tonight:

THE RACE is on between Geelong champion Gary Ablett and teammate Patrick Dangerfield to see who can become the first man to poll against 18 clubs.

Ablett is almost certain to achieve the feat in round 11, when he racked up 37 disposals and three goals in the Cats' thumping of Gold Coast.

He was considered best on ground in the AFL.com.au Brownlow predictor that day, but even if the umpires don't reward him, the 34-year-old might have been noticed by the whistleblowers when he had 25 disposals and two goals against the Suns in the final round.

Those two matches are the only times he has faced the Suns and come after he spent seven seasons on the Gold Coast. During his 110-game career at the Suns he played the Cats six times and polled five Brownlow votes.

Ablett's teammate Dangerfield needs only St Kilda to complete the set and could do it in round four when Geelong comprehensively beat the Saints.

The 2016 winner was one of the Cats' better players with 25 disposals but isn't expected to feature among the votes, according to the predictor.

Sydney superstar Lance Franklin needs to poll against just the Suns but the only time he faced them this season in round 18, the spearhead was held goalless as the lowly Gold Coast pulled off a massive upset.

COMPLETING THE SET
Polled against 17 clubs – who they need to poll against
Gary Ablett – Gold Coast
Patrick Dangerfield – St Kilda
Lance Franklin – Gold Coast

Polled against 16 clubs – who they need to poll against
Bryce Gibbs – Carlton and GWS
Luke Hodge – GWS and Hawthorn
Jordan Lewis – Hawthorn and St Kilda

Polled against 15 clubs – who they need to poll against
Tom Rockliff – Brisbane, GWS and Sydney

 

[Tony Barber]

I hated Mitchell's mid season.
But there was already so much focus on him that he may poll anyway.

Gut feel is that the talk of him getting mid 20's is stupid.
29-33 type year.

Thought gaff could get him before the suspension.

Will be a boring night unless the umps jump on Gawn.

 

[catempire]

My prediction is Mitchell to win on 23-26 votes with a bunch right behind him including Oliver, Grundy and Gaff. Taking those three to get close to Mitchell in handicap markets.

Happy to lay Gawn, rucks of his type haven’t polled well since Wynd. Grundy much better value.

Higgins is a nice dark horse. No competition at North. Nice place odds.

Reckon Selwood is good value to poll most votes for us at $8. His first half of the season was excellent.

 

[FredLeDeux]

My prediction is Mitchell to win on 23-26 votes with a bunch right behind him including Oliver, Grundy and Gaff. Taking those three to get close to Mitchell in handicap markets.

Happy to lay Gawn, rucks of his type haven’t polled well since Wynd. Grundy much better value.

Higgins is a nice dark horse. No competition at North. Nice place odds.

Reckon Selwood is good value to poll most votes for us at $8. His first half of the season was excellent.

Goldstein polled 18 for a very similar season to Gawn, and "Maxy" is more popular, so he's not out of it.

 

[catempire]

Goldstein polled 18 for a very similar season to Gawn, and "Maxy" is more popular, so he's not out of it.

18 wouldn’t shock me but if someone was offering under 15 I’d lap that up.

Grundy plays like a mid (see Stynes, J) and could poll low 20s.

 

[Tony Barber]

Well this is no fun.
I've had a bet. But there's no way I can track it.

Effectively I'll just have to log on to my betting account later to see if I won.
And I won't ever know know what I won or lost by.


Had $100 on Mitchell to score the most votes between rounds 15-23 @$6

 

[Zouz Kitty]

View attachment 563368

catempire - please transfer this to the Style thread?

No idea what happened, haven't even had wine.

 

[ATSAM]

Hard to get excited about anything that Umpires touch. They can't even get a free kick correct so hard to understand how they can pick the best player. Plus after the Judd three acts of violence and wins the medal in the year that he commits two it is a farce. Then there is the Cooney and Watson wins.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Hard to get excited about anything that Umpires touch. They can't even get a free kick correct so hard to understand how they can pick the best player. Plus after the Judd three acts of violence and wins the medal in the year that he commits two it is a farce. Then there is the Cooney and Watson wins.

Yeah it's total bullshit. That's why I predicted a Danger win. Just a vote magnet.

 

[Tandy]

Was going to put some change on Danger to win at $34 but ended up putting it on Dusty for a top 3 place and use the winnings for next weekend hopefully.
Could Gary win it?