Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[CJMB]

The way we move up the ladder is by getting him though. Getting Shiel this year makes Kelly/Coniglio more realistic next year. Right now they're all going elsewhere because there is no sell for a 6-16 side unfortunately. With Shiel and better injury luck we could get an extra win or two and have more of a sell

It's not like we have 2 years to pick up top line players and then the window closes.

Next year we'll see more improvement through the return of Doc, Plow & Willo plus Cripps, Charlie, Harry, Kennedy, Fisher, Samo, Weitering, Marchbank, Pickett, Dow, O'Brien, Lang, Garlett, etc (I know I've missed players...) all getting another 9 games and a preseason than purely by adding Shiel, Kelly or anyone else for that matter.

I'm not sure Kelly (or anyone) would look as us at the end of next year and think "geez, I would have liked to go to Carlton but unfortunately they didn't sell the farm in an alleged superdraft so my interest waned". To get Shiel across we'd have to sell him the hope for the future, ie the kids, otherwise why would he nominate us? And surely aren't we better positioned to sell that same hope in a years time if we take our pretty damn good hand to the draft and add to our list?

You're suggesting we trade 1 for Shiel this year and then trade our first (and more) for Kelly next year. If we want those players, aren't we better off to take 1 to the draft and go for Shiel next year as a FA and then trade our first (& something) for Kelly? If it effectively costs the same (picks & dollars) why would you rather have Shiel+Kelly when you can have Shiel+Kelly+Lukosius/Walsh?...

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

It could also go down like this.

Shiel to manager ‘I desperately want to get back to Melbourne, I’m done up here, I’d love to play for the Blues’
Manager to SOS “Dylan is desperate to get to Carlton this trade period”
SOS to manger “Thanks but we aren’t nterested in Dylan this year because we have to pay so we will wait”
Manager to Shiel “Carlton aren’t interested this year, told me, you have to wait until next year, they obviously don’t think you’re worth it. But I’ve got good offers from 4 other Vic clubs”

This, we will just get him next year talk really annoys me, if Dylan decides he wants out and GWS are willing to trade then you don’t burn your bridges by telling him/them nah we will wait until next year so we can screw you over.

It’s possible SOS might be in to another FA next year.

Meh! If this was the scenario and Shiel went elsewhere then we move on a look elsewhere, no big deal. Shiel isn't the be all and end all.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

The way we move up the ladder is by getting him though. Getting Shiel this year makes Kelly/Coniglio more realistic next year. Right now they're all going elsewhere because there is no sell for a 6-16 side unfortunately. With Shiel and better injury luck we could get an extra win or two and have more of a sell

I think Shiel is massively over rated by Carlton supporters. All this fawning over another teams 3rd, if not 4th best midfielder. Little crazy to me.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I think Shiel is massively over rated by Carlton supporters. All this fawning over another teams 3rd, if not 4th best midfielder. Little crazy to me.

He's pretty damn good though. Would be awesome to have.

 

[jd2010]

ALL Melbourne clubs

Firstly, some can offer finals from next year, while the club could offer picks and players

Secondly, any side not contending for finals could offer as much as us in terms of value.

Do not get caught up that we have more money to spend than any other club, we are certainly well placed,, but other clubs such as North could offer as much if not more

Reasons Shiel could want to come home

Home (10 clubs)
Immediate success (Not us at present
Money ( 3 or 4 clubs )
Carlton (Dream reason)

How do the clubs get a deal done this year?

That's what we have that others don't. It's the way we got the Judd deal over Collingwood, Essendon & Melbourne. Paul Connors has said so himself (funnily enough manages Shiel too)

 

[jd2010]

You're suggesting we trade 1 for Shiel this year and then trade our first (and more) for Kelly next year. If we want those players, aren't we better off to take 1 to the draft and go for Shiel next year as a FA and then trade our first (& something) for Kelly? If it effectively costs the same (picks & dollars) why would you rather have Shiel+Kelly when you can have Shiel+Kelly+Lukosius/Walsh?...

No. I'm suggesting trading 1 this year for Shiel. Improving in 2019 and being able to sign Kelly as a FA.

Without Shiel in 2019 our improvement will be there but minor in 2019. Too minor to sign Kelly or Shiel (let alone both) imo

 

[Arr0w]

No. I'm suggesting trading 1 this year for Shiel. Improving in 2019 and being able to sign Kelly as a FA.

Without Shiel in 2019 our improvement will be there but minor in 2019. Too minor to sign Kelly or Shiel (let alone both) imo

You need to do some more research, Kelly is not a FA next year

 

[Arr0w]

How do the clubs get a deal done this year?

That's what we have that others don't. It's the way we got the Judd deal over Collingwood, Essendon & Melbourne. Paul Connors has said so himself (funnily enough manages Shiel too)

Judd was out of contract

Unless Shiel nominates us at the end of this year, we continue with other business

 

[jd2010]

You need to do some more research, Kelly is not a FA next year

Not sure why he was brought up in the first place someone must have mentioned his name and I assumed it was because he was. My point was Shiel this year and FA next year, doesn't have to be Kelly but whoever is in the FA pool they're more likely to join us after landing Shiel the year before and being decent on the park

 

[jd2010]

Unless Shiel nominates us at the end of this year, we continue with other business

If (and it still is a big if) he does want to come home his manager will look at which club is most likely to get the deal done, he'll present that to Shiel see if he still wants to leave & then Connors will instruct the clubs to get a deal done

 

[Arr0w]

Not sure why he was brought up in the first place someone must have mentioned his name and I assumed it was because he was. My point was Shiel this year and FA next year, doesn't have to be Kelly but whoever is in the FA pool they're more likely to join us after landing Shiel the year before and being decent on the park

No

 

[Arr0w]

If (and it still is a big if) he does want to come home his manager will look at which club is most likely to get the deal done, he'll present that to Shiel see if he still wants to leave & then Connors will instruct the clubs to get a deal done

No

 

[jd2010]

No

“That was a hard trade because the rules in place today were not the rules in the place then,” Connors said.

“I remember Juddy leaning towards Collingwood at one stage.

“I didn’t want him to go to Collingwood because I couldn’t have got him there. They didn’t have the picks. It wasn’t going to work.”

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

He's pretty damn good though. Would be awesome to have.

Maybe. Id rather look in Angus Brayshaw's direction considering he is OOC. We can offer him more than the Dee's can I reckon.

 

[Arr0w]

“That was a hard trade because the rules in place today were not the rules in the place then,” Connors said.

“I remember Juddy leaning towards Collingwood at one stage.

“I didn’t want him to go to Collingwood because I couldn’t have got him there. They didn’t have the picks. It wasn’t going to work.”

Incorrect

 

[CJMB]

If (and it still is a big if) he does want to come home his manager will look at which club is most likely to get the deal done, he'll present that to Shiel see if he still wants to leave & then Connors will instruct the clubs to get a deal done

It's a bit different to the days when Connors got Judd to Carlton.

The player nominates a club and they'll probably get there (sometimes it takes a couple of goes, like Gibbs).

The club losing the player can possibly try and suggest who they'd rather deal with but at the end of the day the player has to sign off on the trade so it's up to them. If the club receiving the player doesn't have enough currency in hand to make it work, be it players or draft picks, then they can use future picks.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

He's pretty damn good though. Would be awesome to have.

Agree, but not for a top 3 pick this year. We have seen Dow come on this year. Looks like the kid will be an absolute gun. Add Walsh this year... look out!

 

[jd2010]

Incorrect

Straight from the horses mouth but okay

 

[jd2010]

It's a bit different to the days when Connors got Judd to Carlton.

The player nominates a club and they'll probably get there (sometimes it takes a couple of goes, like Gibbs).

The club losing the player can possibly try and suggest who they'd rather deal with but at the end of the day the player has to sign off on the trade so it's up to them. If the club receiving the player doesn't have enough currency in hand to make it work, be it players or draft picks, then they can use future picks.

The player had to sign off on the trade back then too didn't they?

I don't think any club in for Shiel can remotely come close to offering enough to GWS compared to us.

We don't actually know that he wants out fwiw just speculating at this stage. But if there was a market for his services Carlton 2019 trade period is 2nd favourite behind going to a top club as FA in 2020

 

[Iamcarlton]

Blue supporters need to wake up and stop taking Cripps for granted - all very well to swoon over the future potential of SPS/Fisher and Dow - none of whom can take on the bigger players who rotate through on ball to Cripps and just smash him over and over again. Cripps hasn't signed up for a bunged up body by his mid 20's in order to provide an armchair ride for developing 'potential' of kids. He has less support than Judd had and Judd had none. thank goodness Kennedy is back on field and playing - the only other player in teh side on Sunday with any hint of genuine menace.

AFL football STARTS with midfield capability and Carlton isnt even on the starting blocks - destroys any defensive structure as well as attacking structure - just a joke - no one is fooled except look long term rose coloured glass optimists. Long term is built by incremental improvement short terms.

2 genuine midfield presences required to keep rebuild on track - no BS.

Top post jab

 

[Arr0w]

Straight from the horses mouth but okay

The strong mail was that the Judd deal was done in June/July of that year. McGuire contacted WC to try and broker a deal, at which point he was advised "Haven't you heard, Judd has already agreed to play at Carlton next year"

Not my mouth

 

[Iamcarlton]

Then take either a FA or trade off our 2nds. No way would i send a top 3 pick for Shiel when be is just coin the following year.

I dont believe SOS will give up an early pick this year.

Send Cripps forward more if we are that concerned about his body this year. I want him to play for as many years as possible too. But Shiel is not the answer 1 year out from free agency.

Maybe he isnt but players of his ilk fast plays both inside and outside midfield role are absolutely whats needed for our side and to support Cripps going forward .

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Play this year and next years trade/draft period correctly, and practically we are set for the next 5 years and beyond.

2018:
Add Gaff via FA
Draft Lukosius with pick 1
Trade pick 23 for Lloyd
Pick 25 for Brodie
Add BSOS and others with remaining picks

2019:
Add Shiel via FA
Trade 2019 1st round pick and 2020 1st round pick for Kelly and their 2019 2nd round pick

B: Docherty Weitering Lloyd
HB: Williamson Marchbank O'Brien
C: Gaff Dow Shiel
HF: Kelly C.Curnow SPS
F: Lukosius McKay Fisher
R: Kruezer Cripps E.Curnow
Int: Kennedy Lang Brodie Cuningham/Murphy/Pickett/Polson/Silvangi etc

If we hold our nerve and make the right choices, there's a possibility we could have a team that looks similar to this in 32 games time. Cripps will have more than enough support and we have match winners all over the park.

 

[jd2010]

The strong mail was that the Judd deal was done in June/July of that year. McGuire contacted WC to try and broker a deal, at which point he was advised "Haven't you heard, Judd has already agreed to play at Carlton next year"

Not my mouth

So Paul Connors is lying when he recounts what happened then and the strong mail is true

 

[BluStreak]

Brilliant article by Riley Beveridge today on afl.com about us.

Interesting read. One thing that I believe is missing in the comparison with Melbourne is that they started their list over haul before Roos and Goodwin joined. So we are getting to the starting blocks at the end of this season. Next season would put us in line with their first season.