Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[Blue__Balls]

I put the pick from SOS as 6.5/10 because he isn’t as good as he should be for a top 10 Pick. The reason he has played 16 games is because he is a top 10 pick. To be honest for quite a lot of that he wouldn’t have played if he was 24+. Look at the draft again. Would you even put him in the first round?

De. Koning is higher because not only does he suit our future needs well, but he is also a great player. Talls take a while to develop, so we might not see him for a while

Schu 10/10 because he is great for someone who went so low in the draft. I reckon he might be one of the best pick 70s from what I’ve seen.

Reckon you're being unfairly critical of a first year player.

Let's run a comparison against other medium midfield types who have been taken around the middle of the first round over the last few years, looking at some pertinent stats for players of that type (disposals, efficiency, marks, tackles, score involvements, metres gained) as key indicators of their effectiveness at the role of an outside mid.

2017
7 - Hunter Clark - 15 games, averaging 15 disposals (@72%), 2 marks, 2.8 tackles, 3.5 score involvements, 196 metres gained
8 - Nick Coffield - 10 games, averaging 14 disposals (@85%), 4.6 marks, 1.4 tackles, 2.2 score involvements, 187 metres gained
10 - Lochie O'Brien - 16 games, averaging 13 disposals (@71%), 4.3 marks, 1.5 tackles, 2.2 score involvments, 214 metres gained
16 - Ed Richards - 19 games, averaging 13 disposals (@69%), 2.5 marks, 2.5 tackles, 3 score involvements, 213 metres gained

2016
10 - Jack Bowes - 11 games, averaging 12 disposals (@72%), 2.9 marks, 2.3 tackles, 2.5 score involvements, 152 metres gained
11 - Ollie Florent - 9 games, averaging 15 disposals (@68%), 1.7 marks, 2.1 tackles, 2.9 score involvements, 157 metres gained

2015
8 - Callum Ah Chee - 16 games, averaging 13 disposals (@76%), 2.9 marks, 3.1 tackles, 4.4 score involvements, 150 metres gained
11 - Wayne Milera - 8 games, averaging 11 disposals (@76%), 3.1 marks, 2.1 tackles, 5.8 score involvements, 180 metres gained

Average across this selection:
13 games, 13.25 disposals, 73.6% efficiency, 3 marks, 2.2 tackles, 3.3 score involvements, 181 metres gained.

Against that selection, he's up on games played, marks taken, and metres gained, on par for disposals and disposal efficiency, and below the average for tackles and score involvements.

I'm not seeing an issue, to be honest.

Re-drafting 2017 less than 12 months on?

1. Stephenson
2. Cerra
3. Dow
4. Brayshaw
5. Higgins
6. Rayner
7. Kelly
8. Fritsch
9. Clark
10. Richards
11. Coffield
12. O'Brien
13. Naughton
14. Fogarty
15. Fogarty

McCartin, Spargo, Worpel and Davies-Uniacke probably slot in somewhere in the bottom end of that list, maybe after the Fogarty's though.

Who did we "miss out on" for O'Brien?
Higgins, Richards, Kelly and Fritsch.
Well, two of them went second round, for good reason (mature agers).
Higgins would have been a good get.
O'Brien vs. Richards - I don't reckon the distinction is all that clear, and the difference stems more from Richards being used forward at times.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

TDK & Schu 9/10 & 10/10 and they have not played 1 AFL Senior game

6.5/10 for LOB who has played 16 AFL games.

I think you are selling LOB very short.

Sorry Aph. Agree with this, but the avatars are making it seem like one of you have D.I.D. and are arguing with yourself.

 

[katmanblue]

I tend to agree but I do understand the definitive aspect of if we get Shiel now we have another gun locked away.

I would however, rather take the punt on waiting til FA next year. We keep our 1st, have options to target a different FA if we please instead and the option to trade in a top line player like Shiel is still there if he takes a different direction.

Essendon are right into him this year too. What if gws want to pull the trigger but we dont have our hat in the ring?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Aphrodite]

Sorry Aph. Agree with this, but the avatars are making it seem like one of you have D.I.D. and are arguing with yourself.

Well I had mine first and have had it for quite a while.

Tyruddanaut can change his!

 

[Bluebag13]

Essendon are right into him this year too. What if gws want to pull the trigger but we dont have our hat in the ring?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

If they are offering more than we are willing to then so be it

 

[TeeJay Blue]

Well I had mine first and have had it for quite a while.

Tyruddanaut can change his!

Perhaps he could flip it.

 

[Aphrodite]

I put the pick from SOS as 6.5/10 because he isn’t as good as he should be for a top 10 Pick. The reason he has played 16 games is because he is a top 10 pick. To be honest for quite a lot of that he wouldn’t have played if he was 24+. Look at the draft again. Would you even put him in the first round?

De. Koning is higher because not only does he suit our future needs well, but he is also a great player. Talls take a while to develop, so we might not see him for a while

Schu 10/10 because he is great for someone who went so low in the draft. I reckon he might be one of the best pick 70s from what I’ve seen.

Sorry but have to disagree on this one and being a Top 10 pick is not the reason he has played 16 games this year.

 

[Aphrodite]

Perhaps he could flip it.

Nope he can change his.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

Nope he can change his.

Now now Aph. You can't keep Crippa all to yourself. Share him around will ya?

 

[Aphrodite]

Now now Aph. You can't keep Crippa all to yourself. Share him around will ya?

No.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

Oh well, I tried.

 

[Arr0w]

9 wins? Who are you thinking we beat?

7-9 and given what we had done previous 2 years, don't think that was a stretch

 

[Prem17]

Isn't Collins more an intercept defender as well?

Put on some size at Freo on instruction from the club, then got cut cause he was too slow.

I think he'd be a better fit for our backline than Jones if we wanted to run the three-tall set-up. But we may be better off trying to develop BSOS into a big key defender at the bargain price of Pick 60-odd or even a rookie pick.

You may be right BB. I know that he is playing as an interceptor in the VFL atm but I was going off where he was at with Freo, so I figured he would be a more natural defender than Jones.
If as you say, his best comes only as an interceptor, than it might not work out as well for us.
We need a genuine FB atm. Someone that can help from round 1 next year. Not sure how much longer Rowe has left in him as a genuine first option KPD.

 

[Prem17]

I've written previously about targeting Hugh Goddard as a rookie to fill that very role, if the Saints are looking to get rid of him. Has had a rough time over the past few years with injuries, but really liked him a few years back and would be OK with taking him on as a rookie to see if we can get his body right.

I've been on that wagon as well.
Pretty sure he is OOC this year.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

7-9 and given what we had done previous 2 years, don't think that was a stretch

I think if you went and told a supporter of another club we could win 9 games next year you would be laughed at. Slim slim possibility. 2020 - sure. If not more than 9. But next year i struggle to see it

 

[Sector 7G]

I

I've written previously about targeting Hugh Goddard as a rookie to fill that very role, if the Saints are looking to get rid of him. Has had a rough time over the past few years with injuries, but really liked him a few years back and would be OK with taking him on as a rookie to see if we can get his body right.

So the Saints who have got no decent young KPD are punting him and we want to take a chance on him. Was a massive slider in his draft year. While he has been unlucky with injuries has shown nothing in 4 year on the list.

Thats a no from me.

 

[Soapy V]

I think if you went and told a supporter of another club we could win 9 games next year you would be laughed at. Slim slim possibility. 2020 - sure. If not more than 9. But next year i struggle to see it

I think people really underestimate what the injuries have done this year in terms of mature bodies and cohesion. Really bad when you are a young list. Benefit is games into youngsters.

If we can be fit next year especially Docherty Simpson Murphy Curnow Kruezer Plowman Cripps Kennedy Williamson Marchbank Charlie as our core and recruit a Lloyd maybe McGovern Miles Brodie Fasolo etc, then Walsh I see 7-9 wins as very realistic. Another pre season into our 2-4th year players will really make a difference as well.

If that all happens I expect a big improvement with finals the target in 2020.

 

[Arr0w]

I think if you went and told a supporter of another club we could win 9 games next year you would be laughed at. Slim slim possibility. 2020 - sure. If not more than 9. But next year i struggle to see it

Well most supporters, wouldn't really understand the impact of our injuries, or the progression of our youth and that includes many of our supporters

7 wins in 2016, 6 in 2017

I don't see it as unreasonable, given the development and a healthier list

Pretty sure most had Norf in the bottom 4, yet only used 28 players in the first half of the year, an admission by Scott as to why they have had a better season

 

[Jeremias]

So the Saints who have got no decent young KPD are punting him and we want to take a chance on him. Was a massive slider in his draft year. While he has been unlucky with injuries has shown nothing in 4 year on the list.

Thats a no from me.

Are they "punting him"?

I don't know what he's thinking but maybe he decides a change of scenery is a good thing for him going forward, a situation St Kilda would be familiar with given Freeman joined them after having no luck with injury at the Pies.

He was taken at pick 21 so I'm not sure he was a "massive slider".

Thought he showed a fair bit early in his career but obviously hasn't come on since, largely due to the injuries - did his Achilles and has had other issues since.

What have we got to lose by taking him as a rookie?

 

[footyfan1978]

Apologies if already mentioned, but Brad Hardie on the PerthNow website mentioned that we are chasing Cerra hard to get him across this year (Hawks and Magpies also in the picture).

Brad "Sandra" Hardie

 

[Bobmonkey]

True, but if he is squeezed out the door, the last thing we would want to see is him wearing that hideous red seatbelt. I'd be willing to take the risk if he doesn't stay with the giants.

Shiel is not worth Sam Walsh, as much as I'd like to see him in the Blues next year.
Surely we would look to package some of our second round picks for a first rounder, or do something with a future first.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I think people really underestimate what the injuries have done this year in terms of mature bodies and cohesion. Really bad when you are a young list. Benefit is games into youngsters.

If we can be fit next year especially Docherty Simpson Murphy Curnow Kruezer Plowman Cripps Kennedy Williamson Marchbank Charlie as our core and recruit a Lloyd maybe McGovern Miles Brodie Fasolo etc, then Walsh I see 7-9 wins as very realistic. Another pre season into our 2-4th year players will really make a difference as well.

If that all happens I expect a big improvement with finals the target in 2020.

Ill go with facts soap.

Theres no such thing as a fit list all year round. If 1 of cripps, charlie or mckay goes down we are in struggle town once again.

- Murphy doesnt look fantastic and im concerned the 2 years we have given him just might not have been the smartest of moves. I fear his foot issue isn't going to ever be 100%

- Kruezer... i just hope he is ok firstly. But he is another that will have question marks on him going into next season. This is reality.

- Doc is coming back from a year long injury. Will he be at his best. Doubt it.

- Simmo is nearing the end and if goes on is a huge chance to not make it through the season.

These 4 above are leaders at our club. We desperately need them at 100%. Im concerned!

We will lose players which bridge the age gap a little but just arent up to it.

Players i want: lloyd, gaff, brodie, setterfield and im even tempted to throw Faz a lifeline since no picks will be involved. Cant see us getting most of the mentioned. But even the inclusion of those 5 and Walsh, i still dont think we get to 9 wins. Just my opinion

 

[footyfan1978]

Glass Half empty meets the Glass Half full.

 

[Soapy V]

Ill go with facts soap.

Theres no such thing as a fit list all year round. If 1 of cripps, charlie or mckay goes down we are in struggle town once again.

- Murphy doesnt look fantastic and im concerned the 2 years we have given him just might not have been the smartest of moves. I fear his foot issue isn't going to ever be 100%

- Kruezer... i just hope he is ok firstly. But he is another that will have question marks on him going into next season. This is reality.

- Doc is coming back from a year long injury. Will he be at his best. Doubt it.

- Simmo is nearing the end and if goes on is a huge chance to not make it through the season.

These 4 above are leaders at our club. We desperately need them at 100%. Im concerned!

We will lose players which bridge the age gap a little but just arent up to it.

Players i want: lloyd, gaff, brodie, setterfield and im even tempted to throw Faz a lifeline since no picks will be involved. Cant see us getting most of the mentioned. But even the inclusion of those 5 and Walsh, i still dont think we get to 9 wins. Just my opinion

Fair points HCJ but my belief is on the depth we will have next year. You need a good 30-35 players to have a good year

Ours

Docherty Weitering Plowman
Lloyd Marchbank Williamson
Pickett Cripps Simpson
Charlie McKay SPS
Murphy Kerr Fisher
Kruezer Kennedy Dow
O'Brien Curnow Walsh Cuningham

Jones Brodie Caldwell Polson Macreadie Rowe Miles Fasolo TDK Lang Byrne Lamb Phillips Lobbe Garlett plus some more picks & mature bodies

If we get a Gaff Shiel and/or Cerra it's even better. A better midfiled makes a massive difference. I think Murphy will thrive as a small forward.

Weitering Charlie SPS Williamson Pickett Lang Cuningham Fisher Kennedy Lang Byrne Marchbank are then 3-4th year players and will improve greatly and should be more consistent.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Fair points HCJ but my belief is on the depth we will have next year. You need a good 30-35 players to have a good year

Ours

Docherty Weitering Plowman
Lloyd Marchbank Williamson
Pickett Cripps Simpson
Charlie McKay SPS
Murphy Kerr Fisher
Kruezer Kennedy Dow
O'Brien Curnow Walsh Cuningham

Jones Brodie Caldwell Polson Rowe Miles Fasolo TDK Lang Byrne Lamb Phillips Lobbe Garlett plus some more picks & mature bodies

If we get a Gaff Shiel and/or Cerra it's even better. I think Murphy will thrive as a small forward.

Weitering Charlie SPS Williamson Pickett Lang Cuningham Fisher are then 3-4th year players and will improve greatly and should be more consistent.

Good team Soap. I like it.
I hope we can stay on the park with that line up you have. We will definitely be competitive.