Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[Benaly28]

I think we need to realise how lucky we are going to be this year re our second rounders.I don’t think anybody including sos would’ve banked on crows and doggies poor seasons.Weve gone from picks 27plus and 30 plus to both low twenties.In this draft that’s gold for both using them on draftees or swapping for established players.Saints/Freo would kill for those.

 

[Soapy V]

I think we need to realise how lucky we are going to be this year re our second rounders.I don’t think anybody including sos would’ve banked on crows and doggies poor seasons.Weve gone from picks 27plus and 30 plus to both low twenties.In this draft that’s gold for both using them on draftees or swapping for established players.Saints/Freo would kill for those.

Agree. If SOS somehow trades Pick One into 2 x Top 10 picks and get a PP we may have around 5, 8, 19, 20 & 30. That allows us to bring in some real talent in what I believe is a very good draft up to around Pick 30. We will have a group of young talent that anyone would be happy with.

That effectively allows us to then chase mature top end talent over the next 2-3 years and top off the list and fill in any gaps and build for sustained success.

 

[Captain Cripps]

Jones is doing his best for sure but his play style can be unpredictable. I think long term, ideally, Weiters and Marchbank are partnered with a true lockdown tall defender to optimise their talents.

That’s the best part being unpredictable,
As our game plan isn’t.

 

[Captain Cripps]

Not sure where that is.

Me neither

 

[gbatman]

This is our best 22 in 2022 and their ages. IMO 2022 is a significant year for us because it's when all of our young players are in their prime at the same time 22-27 years old or thereabouts so you could suggest that this is potentially our next premiership side.

B: Marchbank (25) Macreadie (23) Docherty (28)
HB: Byrne (27) Weitering (24) Williamson (23)
C: O'Brien (22) Cripps (27) Fisher (23)
HF: SPS (23) Curnow (24) Pickett (25)
F: Polson (23) McKay (24) Silvagni (24)
OB: TDK (22) Dow (22) (mid)
IC: Plowman (27) Garlett (25) Kennedy (24) (mid)
EM: Schumacher Lang Cuningham ???

Looking at it, there's a bit of work to do. Pickett, Macreadie, Polson, McKay and Garlett are a little on the unproven side of things. Macreadie, Byrne, Williamson, Pickett have had a fair amount of injuries. The bench is underwhelming for mine, the bench should be filled with hard running utilities who can play forward, back and midfield. Rotations are important. There are two players (mids or utilities) who are just plain missing.

Good news is we have rebuilt through youth, both trading and the draft. No quick fix, no big money older players. Just slow and steady. So we have 4 more draft/trade/free agency periods to add to this side!

We've given ourselves time and opportunity to build one hell of a side/list.

I think this season is another one for using early draft picks and really going for them. Draftees in this draft will be 21 or thereabouts in 2022 and in their 4th season so should be having an impact in a decent side.

I think from then on we go for it, trade early picks for high quality players in the 22-27 year age group. Try and get everyone at their peak at the same time.

I think 2019 will be an improved but another building year. Transitioning more youth to senior footy and taking whatever injuries come our way. I think 2020 we will see some really strong results and 2021 we will be very close.

If we could hammer this draft with early picks, maybe trade pick 1 for two early picks and a priority pick. Trade away the next few years for top end talent, pick up the odd free agent. We could have a hell of a team. But we have to be careful, we don't just need numbers anymore, we need elite talent so trading for more picks is good but the talent there must be top shelf. Those big name match winners.

When you think about it, 2021 could be a fair season too, especially if we bring in some good mature age talent and our older players hang on a bit.

 

[Duigan Alley34]

That’s the best part being unpredictable,
As our game plan isn’t.

Being unpredictable to your teammates is not great and has many times this season left players scrambling to make up for it.

 

[Soapy V]

This is our best 22 in 2022 and their ages. IMO 2022 is a significant year for us because it's when all of our young players are in their prime at the same time 22-27 years old or thereabouts so you could suggest that this is potentially our next premiership side.

B: Marchbank (25) Macreadie (23) Docherty (28)
HB: Byrne (27) Weitering (24) Williamson (23)
C: O'Brien (22) Cripps (27) Fisher (23)
HF: SPS (23) Curnow (24) Pickett (25)
F: Polson (23) McKay (24) Silvagni (24)
OB: TDK (22) Dow (22) (mid)
IC: Plowman (27) Garlett (25) Kennedy (24) (mid)
EM: Schumacher Lang Cuningham ???

Looking at it, there's a bit of work to do. Pickett, Macreadie, Polson, McKay and Garlett are a little on the unproven side of things. Macreadie, Byrne, Williamson, Pickett have had a fair amount of injuries. The bench is underwhelming for mine, the bench should be filled with hard running utilities who can play forward, back and midfield. Rotations are important. There are two players (mids or utilities) who are just plain missing.

Good post. We will add another 5-6 more young draftees this year as well and more over next 2-3 years. Then I have no doubt 1 or 2 "big fish"

I have high hopes for Pickett Garlett Polson Kerr & LeBois. I think Cuningham will be a beauty. Phillips if fit could be in his prime as a ruck. Simmo could still be playing . Lots of positives

Even if we only add Walsh Valente Wallis Brodie Miles this year it's a big step forward

 

[Yoda_]

Hi guys, hope you don't mind me intruding but wanted to join the conversation.

Had posted this on the Drafts & Trading board about how the Blues will look in 5 years time.

As many have mentioned, plenty of talent at the Blues, feel they just need some leadership around them to improve there standards and thus improve the football on field. Melbourne did that when they brought in older, wiser guys like Cameron Pedersen, Daniel Cross etc. Brisbane have done that recently with the recruitment of guys like Luke Hodge, Charlie Cameron, Allen Christensen and Dayne Beams (even though he wanted to return home to Qld).

Feel Carlton should be doing something similar at the end of the year. You can pick up B & C grade players but not run of the mil, borderline fringe players they seemed to have stacked there list with. These guys should be of high character, leaders if you will, help improve and set the standards everywhere for the Blues to improve on.

The kids they have are a decent crop, they do need some guidance but the previous 2 years un Bolton showed they can play football. Obviously injuries have curtailed this year but the previous two years Win:loss ratios ('17 - 6 wins, '16 - 7 wins) suggests they can play football.

Anyways, to the topic at hand. A Best 22 using only the guys they currently have is incredibly hard to fill. They have a large number of guys on the cusp of going either way. Jarrod Picket, Ciaran Byrne, David Cunningham, Nick Graham, Darcy Lang even. The top ends are seriously as good as any but it is that mid > lower end of this 22 that really falls away.

Will try to break down each zone in what I feel the 22 will look likei n 5 years time. Some contentious calls but may be required in due time at Carlton.


Defense:

Backline: Lachie Plowman - Jacob Weitering - ????
Half Backs Line: Sam Docherty - Caleb Marchbank - ????

The two lynchpins of this last line of defence could be as good as any. Weitering obviously has talent. You don't go at No.1 for little reason and his debut season showed this. Plowman has been a revelation since coming across from GWS. Docherty is obviously one of the best in the caper and Marchbank goes about it with very little fuss but do not underestimate how good he could be/is. O'Brien is one that should/could seriously come into consideration for one of these spots. Has shown PLENTY this year already.

Obviously two more spots to fill in this 18, one on each line here. A number of guys have the opportunity on the current list to nail down a spot.

Midfield:

Centreline: Zac Fisher - Pat Cripps - SPS
Rucks: ???? - Matt Kennedy - Dow

I genuinely believe the nucleus of a great midfield is already set in stone. SPS could genuinely be anything. Cripps is obviously one of the best in the caper and whilst the rest of this currently named group are 50:50, they have all shown they can be very good players at the top level. A ruck for the future is the most glaring need and hard to find but once filled, this group could be something special imho.

Forwards:

Half Forward Line: ???? - ???? - Charlie Curnow
Forward Line: ???? - McKay - ????

If/when McKay comes on, the Blues have a seriously talented duo to build a forward line around. Obviously this is one area they very much need to address moving forward but easily filled. Marking forwards a must and whilst many have tipped Curnow to be a hulking CHF, feel his best work will be done floating off a flank and tearing games apart at will.


Depth analysis:

This will be very contentious but a worthwhile task none the less. All these guys are 26 or under (roughly 31 in 5 years) NOT NAMED ABOVE currently on the Blues list.

(from oldest to youngest according to footywire)

Matt Shaw (borderline/gone)
Aaron Mullet - gone
Cam O'Shea - gone
Jed Lamb - gone
Sam Kerridge - gone
Nicholas Graham - gone
Ciaran Byrne - 50:50
Darcy Lang - gone
Jarrod Garlett - 50:50
Jarrod Pickett - 50:50
Jesse Glass McCasker - 50:50 (more gone)
David Cunningham - high possibility of being on the list
Cillian McDaid - didn't he retire and return home already?
Jack Silvagni - Genuinely torn about Jack. Could be a player but not sure the bodies are around the help protect him.
Harry McKay - Needs to come on for the sake of the Blues moving forward.
Cameron Polson - 50:50 shows plenty of go but needs to better finish to have a consistent impact at AFL level.
Harrison Macreadie - 50:50 the Blues like him and he has plenty to offer at AFL level. Certainly one to watch.
Kym Lebois - gone but could still keep improving and be ok in 5 years.
Pat Kerr - 50:50 talls do take longer and Kerr is young. Will be keen to see how he improves in the next 2 years.
Tom Williamson - Another player that many Blues supporters rave about. Could be a real player and is one many expect to make it.
Angus Schumacher - 50:50 younger defender with a raking left foot. Could fill a void in defense.
Tom De Koning - 50:50 ruckmen/fwd who continues to grow. Perfect for the Blues if he comes on.
Lochie O'Brien - Genuinely excited about this kid. He and Dow will be brilliant from this draft class.

Final Analysis:

B. Plowman - Weitering - ??
Hb. Docherty - Marchbank - ??
C. Fisher - Cripps - SPS
R. ?? - Kennedy - Dow
Hf. ?? - ?? - C.Curnow
F. ?? - McKay - ??

This is a very solid foundation to fill the team around. With this core of players all 24 or younger (bar Docherty) they should be ok. Plenty of opportunities for the next batch of kids to fill but an exciting one none the less. A ruckmen should be paramount for the Blues moving forward and obviously capable forwards are required. In 5 years time they may not be pushing for a flag but they should have turnt around there fortunes by 2023.

Just wanted to further add that, for the short term, the wholes in the best 18 can easily be filled by mature aged guys and FA's.

A couple of guys I would add for discussion purposes are;

Sam Collins - Former Fremantle Docker is an absolute standout VFL player. Class above imho. Would easily come in and play from Rd 1 2019 and release Marchbank/Plowman to be more intercepting players they appear more suited too.

Corey Rich - Dynamic med/small fwd from Frankston Dolphins. Don't be fooled by the poor team record of Frankston this kid can play. Explosive and dynamic, he would easily push for round 1 next year.

 

[footyfan1978]

Corey Rich - Dynamic med/small fwd from Frankston Dolphins. Don't be fooled by the poor team record of Frankston this kid can play. Explosive and dynamic, he would easily push for round 1 next year.

We play Frankston this weekend. Might have to look out for him and see what he like.

 

[Funk]

I’d like Hannebery. Good character. family connection through the O’Sullivan and Aitken clan.

He's a cripple

 

[Juddernaut08]

This is our best 22 in 2022 and their ages. IMO 2022 is a significant year for us because it's when all of our young players are in their prime at the same time 22-27 years old or thereabouts so you could suggest that this is potentially our next premiership side.

B: Marchbank (25) Macreadie (23) Docherty (28)
HB: Byrne (27) Weitering (24) Williamson (23)
C: O'Brien (22) Cripps (27) Fisher (23)
HF: SPS (23) Curnow (24) Pickett (25)
F: Polson (23) McKay (24) Silvagni (24)
OB: TDK (22) Dow (22) (mid)
IC: Plowman (27) Garlett (25) Kennedy (24) (mid)
EM: Schumacher Lang Cuningham ???

Looking at it, there's a bit of work to do. Pickett, Macreadie, Polson, McKay and Garlett are a little on the unproven side of things. Macreadie, Byrne, Williamson, Pickett have had a fair amount of injuries. The bench is underwhelming for mine, the bench should be filled with hard running utilities who can play forward, back and midfield. Rotations are important. There are two players (mids or utilities) who are just plain missing.

Good news is we have rebuilt through youth, both trading and the draft. No quick fix, no big money older players. Just slow and steady. So we have 4 more draft/trade/free agency periods to add to this side!

We've given ourselves time and opportunity to build one hell of a side/list.

I think this season is another one for using early draft picks and really going for them. Draftees in this draft will be 21 or thereabouts in 2022 and in their 4th season so should be having an impact in a decent side.

I think from then on we go for it, trade early picks for high quality players in the 22-27 year age group. Try and get everyone at their peak at the same time.

I think 2019 will be an improved but another building year. Transitioning more youth to senior footy and taking whatever injuries come our way. I think 2020 we will see some really strong results and 2021 we will be very close.

If we could hammer this draft with early picks, maybe trade pick 1 for two early picks and a priority pick. Trade away the next few years for top end talent, pick up the odd free agent. We could have a hell of a team. But we have to be careful, we don't just need numbers anymore, we need elite talent so trading for more picks is good but the talent there must be top shelf. Those big name match winners.

When you think about it, 2021 could be a fair season too, especially if we bring in some good mature age talent and our older players hang on a bit.

Love this post.

Probably very optimistic, but still something I can see as a decent %probability.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I will say, sometimes it's best not to overreact.

Surely, at the start of this year our biggest need was to replace Gibbs and Docherty with B+Grade (or better) mature players.

We failed to do this, Rockliff chose Port, Essendon swooped on others. This has been a compounding detriment for our year.

This may no longer be our issue next year. Docherty will be back, but also everyone will be another year older.

There is no reason why next year Kennedy can't fill that role we've been crying out for. There's no need to bring in another slow crash-bash dude like Wines or Wallis.

All this is to say, don't view this year's needs as next year's needs.

 

[Sector 7G]

Mullett, Lamb, Kerridge and Graham are all around that 24yo mark that the club severely lacks in. I suspect the VFL team would be rather bad without Kerridge and / or Graham. Lamb would be handy backup. Mullett in a better team may serve us well.

Amazingly the NB non listed players have stepped up massively in the second half of the season especially when you consider how bad they looked early in the season (especially against Collingwood and Port).

 

[Sector 7G]

I think we need to realise how lucky we are going to be this year re our second rounders.I don’t think anybody including sos would’ve banked on crows and doggies poor seasons.Weve gone from picks 27plus and 30 plus to both low twenties.In this draft that’s gold for both using them on draftees or swapping for established players.Saints/Freo would kill for those.

Think SOS was hoping we would be giving away pick 24 not 19.

 

[harrisendblue]

Good post. We will add another 5-6 more young draftees this year as well and more over next 2-3 years. Then I have no doubt 1 or 2 "big fish"

I have high hopes for Pickett Garlett Polson Kerr & LeBois. I think Cuningham will be a beauty. Phillips if fit could be in his prime as a ruck. Simmo could still be playing . Lots of positives

Even if we only add Walsh Valente Wallis Brodie Miles this year it's a big step forward

Like the strategy of this a lot especially because it includes Walsh.

Agree on adding more kids this year and only pick up mature types on the basis it wont hurt our chances of making the big money play for a gun. I would also like to see us pick up another one from NB's so if nothing it shows the industry that we do pick from our own and therefore may help attract better unlisted talent to NB's.

Not sure on which names yet other than Walsh but a focus on pure mids with elite skill and above average speed. Dont want flankers who may develop into mids.

 

[Sector 7G]

Like the strategy of this a lot especially because it includes Walsh.

Agree on adding more kids this year and only pick up mature types on the basis it wont hurt our chances of making the big money play for a gun. I would also like to see us pick up another one from NB's so if nothing it shows the industry that we do pick from our own and therefore may help attract better unlisted talent to NB's.

Not sure on which names yet other than Walsh but a focus on pure mids with elite skill and above average speed. Dont want flankers who may develop into mids.

We do need some natural goal kickers though. No point bolstering our midfield and getting it in if there is no one that knows how to kick a goal.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I will say, sometimes it's best not to overreact.

Surely, at the start of this year our biggest need was to replace Gibbs and Docherty with B+Grade (or better) mature players.

We failed to do this, Rockliff chose Port, Essendon swooped on others. This has been a compounding detriment for our year.

This may no longer be our issue next year. Docherty will be back, but also everyone will be another year older.

There is no reason why next year Kennedy can't fill that role we've been crying out for. There's no need to bring in another slow crash-bash dude like Wines or Wallis.

All this is to say, don't view this year's needs as next year's needs.

This is the way I see it. Marchbank and Pickett will be coming into their 5 season so have no excuses.
History also suggests if Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cunningham, Kennedy
and SOJ are going to become good players than they will be good players next season (injury permitting).
I'm not expecting much from Dow and LOB but hopefully they can increase their output from around that 14 touch games to around 17 which would help the side a lot.
Third year for Williamson, SPS and Fisher none of which are KPP so hopefully all hold their own at the level if not better.

If our younger players are any good there is no reason at all why we won't see a fair improvement within the list we already have next season

 

[Soapy V]

This is the way I see it. Marchbank and Pickett will be coming into their 5 season so have no excuses.
History also suggests if Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cunningham, Kennedy
and SOJ are going to become good players than they will be good players next season (injury permitting).
I'm not expecting much from Dow and LOB but hopefully they can increase their output from around that 14 touch games to around 17 which would help the side a lot.
Third year for Williamson, SPS and Fisher none of which are KPP so hopefully all hold their own at the level if not better.

If our younger players are any good there is no reason at all why we won't see a fair improvement within the list we already have next season

My gut feel is Dow will be one that steps up quickly

 

[Juddernaut08]

This is the way I see it. Marchbank and Pickett will be coming into their 5 season so have no excuses.
History also suggests if Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cunningham, Kennedy
and SOJ are going to become good players than they will be good players next season (injury permitting).
I'm not expecting much from Dow and LOB but hopefully they can increase their output from around that 14 touch games to around 17 which would help the side a lot.
Third year for Williamson, SPS and Fisher none of which are KPP so hopefully all hold their own at the level if not better.

If our younger players are any good there is no reason at all why we won't see a fair improvement within the list we already have next season

Yep - can see Fisher and SPS becoming reliable for that 20+ possessions next year

 

[Soapy V]

Sam Collins - Former Fremantle Docker is an absolute standout VFL player. Class above imho. Would easily come in and play from Rd 1 2019 and release Marchbank/Plowman to be more intercepting players they appear more suited too.

I haven't seen much of Collins this year but I liked what I saw when at Freo. Not sure why he was delisted?

 

[Mr_Plow]

My gut feel is Dow will be one that steps up quickly

I believe both Dow and O'Brien will average 18-20 possessions next season.

Fisher made the step up with a great pre-season. If both these guys can stay healthy both have shown the character and drive to improve significantly.

If we can turn Samo into a 20 possession player with a full preseason too, that would be marvellous.

There is plenty of potential upside next year as players enter their 2nd, 3rd and 4th years. One or two will announce themselves as genuine stars of the future, and this is discounting the draftees we bring in.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

My gut feel is Dow will be one that steps up quickly

Yeh I agree. Minutes played is the main reason he isn't pushing 20 touches most weeks. Fitness will see him improve quickly

 

[Soapy V]

We do need some natural goal kickers though. No point bolstering our midfield and getting it in if there is no one that knows how to kick a goal.

I think we have them. It's the delivery and midfield that are the issue.

Murphy forward next year, improvement in McKay & Charlie, maybe Kerr and a better deep midfield will kick a lot of goals. I like the idea of Cripps Kennedy SPS Dow Fisher spending more time up forward.

Better ball use of Docherty & Willo off HB will help as well.

 

[Sector 7G]

I think we have them. It's the delivery and midfield that are the issue.

Murphy forward next year, improvement in McKay & Charlie, maybe Kerr and a better deep midfield will kick a lot of goals. I like the idea of Cripps Kennedy SPS Dow Fisher spending more time up forward.

Better ball use of Docherty & Willo off HB will help as well.

I don't think midfielders spending time forward is the answer. Goal sense is a specific skill
We need a Bruest,Poppy,Rioli, Betts, WHE. Guys that can consistently make something out of nothing and can read the play. How many times did we bomb the ball long and it spill out the back of the pack to a waiting Hawks players with no Blue in site.

Polson and Picket are yet to really show that they have that goal sense and forward craft.

 

[Soapy V]

I don't think midfielders spending time forward is the answer. Goal sense is a specific skill
We need a Bruest,Poppy,Rioli, Betts, WHE. Guys that can consistently make something out of nothing and can read the play. How many times did we bomb the ball long and it spill out the back of the pack to a waiting Hawks players with no Blue in site.

Polson and Pickett are yet to really show that they have that goal sense and forward craft.

I see them both as mids. I am still hopeful on LeBois if he can get on the park. He's the type that will do better in a better standard.

I wouldn't mid seeing Kerridge up forward, a bit like Townsend. Charlie can do it all. We may get Lukosious? Murphy I think can be a goal kicker as can SPS & Dow. I understand your point but I'm not concerned.

I like the flexibility and options we are developing. Improved midfield will make a massive difference