2018 Rucks

[markm106]

Ryder slapping the ball to the same midfield PLUS Rockliff. Locked and loaded, staying away from Gawn who I think won’t return to his best.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I might be biased but I’m backing Gawn in. Very fit ATM. As someone else mentioned Ryder’s bye post China presents an issue.

 

[toxic]

Nic Nat underdone and a set back.
Ryder has a bye and we are unlikely to have coverage.

Everyone will have Gawn.

Martin is progressively getting worse and his finish to the year was awful, expecting Archie Smith to play more this year.

Grundy will be stifled by Big Cox.

Not many people have faith that the Big Jew can turn it around and Preuss breathing down his neck.

Literally leaves Jacobs and Big Boy.

I don't like this one bit.

FWitt to da rescue

 

[Flandersss]

Billy Longer.

Fittest he’s ever been.

 

[Majunga]

Id probably only conside Goldy if Pruess was injured all year. North would be silly not to play Pruess majority of the year. Even if only sharing ruck duties.

Agree, should be getting as much game time into him as they can.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Gawn and NicNat.

Both can go large. Both will be in 90% of teams. Lycett for cover or #prayforcover

 

[Seymour Skinner]

I know we are clutching at straws but any takers for Nankervis??
Good up until the bye except for his one week suspension. Average after the bye.
But this was his first full season which showed as he got tired. Previous two seasons played 5 and 6 games.
Averaged 88 and could he be expected to improve on that with all the extra miles now in his legs.

He's devilishly handsome too.

 

[markm106]

Billy Longer.

Fittest he’s ever been.

View attachment 444619

Having a look at Longers numbers last season. His last month very good. Had some worrying scores early on but I assume he was sharing ruck duties those games. Definitely worth a look as my R2.

 

[big_bazza]

He's devilishly handsome too.

I've got some of the big fellas old swans training gear, you jealous bruh?

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Gawn and Tip for me.

Just need Tip to play 10 games before his yearly injury strikes.

 

[toxic]

Gawn and Tip for me.

Just need Tip to play 10 games before his yearly injury strikes.

He's already injured tho

 

[Dennis Trumpet]

Okay a couple of pages ago I posted that Goldstein was locked into my side. Id like to offer my reasoning as to why.

Part 1

Spoiler

In the last 10 seasons a ruckman has averaged over 100 points in a season on 39 occasions.

Sandilands 6 times
Cox 5 times
Goldstein 5 times
Jacobs 3 times
Nic Nat 3 times
Ryder 3 times
Mumford 3 times
Martin 2 times
Mcevoy 2 times
Gawn 2 times
Lobbe 1 time
Mcintosh 1 time
Kreuzer 1 time
Luenberger 1 time
Maric 1 time

However there are only 16 instances of ruckmen having back to back years averaging over 100

Sandilands (09/10),(10/11),(11/12)(14/15)
Cox (08/09),(11/12),(12/13)
Goldstein (13/14),(14/15),(15/16)
Mcevoy (11/12)
Jacobs (14/15)
Martin (14/15)
Mumford (14/15)
Nic Nat (15/16)
Gawn (15/16)

There are 21 seasons where ruckmen have failed to ton up following their success from the season before. I will be looking at how they perform the following season, in response to their poor year.

#1 Sandilands 2014 -age 31


Responds to his poor 2013 with a massive year. An excellent buy at a bargain.

#2 Sandilands 2017 -age 34

Averaged 95.6 over the first 9 rounds, returned in round 15 for just 12 points. Still was very good value if you started with him.

#3 Cox 2011 - age 29

responds to his first sub 90 point season in god knows how long with a career best season. You would have been spewing if you didnt start with him because you thought it was the start of a decline. He Managed this despite sharing the ruck duties with an improving Natanui too.

#4 Cox 2015 - age 33

Cox didnt play becuase he had retired.

#5 Goldstein 2013 - age 24

After sharing the ruck duties with Hamish mcintosh for 7 weeks in 2012, he responds with another super premo year.

#6 Goldstein 2018 - age 29

Will be the upcoming season.

#7 Jacobs 2014 - age 25

Responds to a poor 2013 with a massive season. A 30 point improvement

#8 Jacobs 2017 - age 28

After an Infuriating 2016 He responds with a pretty decent season averaging roughly 96 points per game and led the league in hit outs.

#9 Naitanui 2014 - age 23

The First example so far where their performance gets even worse. Started the Season Awfully, but averaged over 100 over the back half of the season.

#10 Naitanui 2018 - 27

Will be this season. Couldnt go back to back in 2017 because he missed the entire season with an ACL injury.

 

[Dennis Trumpet]

Part 2

Spoiler

#11 Ryder 2014 - age 25
&
#12 Ryder 2016 - age 27

Ryder responded to a 15 point drop off in 2013 with another 100+ year in 2014

Ryder wasn't able to play in 2016 due a drug ban, however as you can see when afforded the opportunity to respond to his poor year in 2018 he tonned up, and was named the AA ruckman.

#13 Mumford 2013 - age 26

Only managed a slight improvement following a disappointing 2012.

#14 Mumford 2017 - age 30

The second example so far where a player has been down on his previous season, but still managed a respectable 98.3 points per game.

#15 Martin 2017 - age 30

Replied with a 9 point increase in his average and almost another 100+ ppg season. Was super durable and played every single game.

#16 Mcevoy 2014 - age 23

The third example so far where the players average has to continued to decrease. Missed a lot of games.

#17 Gawn 2018 - age 26

Will be this year.

#18 Lobbe 2016 - age 26

Absolutely putrid. enough said.

#19 Luenberger 2013 - age 24

Back with a very solid 97 point average.

#20 Mcintosh 2014 - age 29

A bit lucky to be in this list considering he only played 7 games when he managed to average 100 points per game.Completely missed 2013, and was pretty much cooked in his final season averaging just 83 points.

#21 Maric 2014 - age 27

Almost managed to get back up to the ton, but was only able mange 13 games.



Of the 21 seasons i have posted, 5 either havent been played yet or the player missed the entire season which leaves 16 seasons worth analysing. In order from best to worst.

22 games at 122.2
22 games at 113.5
22 games at 115.4
21 games at 108
20 games at 101.1
13 games at 99.7
20 games at 98.3
22 games at 98.2
20 games at 97
22 games at 95.7
19 games at 91.9
20 games at 90.8
12 games at 89.8
10 games at 87.3
18 games at 83.8
8 games at 65.8

9/16 seasons the ruckman respond with seasons of 20+ games and 95+ points. Cox, Martin, Mumford, Jacobs and Sandilands all managed it despite being 28 years or older.

The 7 that didnt manage to do it were Lobbe, Mcintosh, Maric, Mcevoy, Mumford, a 34 year old Sandilands and 23 year old Naitanui. And with the greatest respect to these players Goldstein does not belong in this category.

Goldstein has already responded after a poor season sharing the ruck duty once before in 2014, and i see no reason why he wont do it again next year.

 

[Dennis Trumpet]

apologies to will minson who i forgot.

 

[Majunga]

apologies to will minson who i forgot.

That's ok, Wilbur forgot himself.

It wasn't just a down year though, a key factor is always the supercoach scoring system.
Many of these Rucks played and scored under different scoring systems, after the change a few years ago
the elite scoring rucks are either HOTA masters or around the ground specialists i.e Nank/Grundy/Martin.

Goldy was always going to drop off because of the retirements at North i thought, it matters who a ruck
is tapping it to, he might bounce back a bit form wise but i have trouble seeing 110 type numbers with North's current outfit.

 

[toxic]

 

[big_bazza]

Fingers crossed on Cameron starting round 1, if he has a ripper JLT? he could well play round 1 like he was going to last year. Could he be the saving grace as ruck cover?

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2017-12-21/cameron-not-holding-back

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Fingers crossed on Cameron starting round 1, if he has a ripper JLT? he could well play round 1 like he was going to last year. Could he be the saving grace as ruck cover?

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2017-12-21/cameron-not-holding-back

What held him back last season .....IIRC he had a great PS & we all thought he was a definite to play some games ....yet nothing?

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

What held him back last season .....IIRC he had a great PS & we all thought he was a definite to play some games ....yet nothing?

A horse called campaigner

 

[ScrewInStuds]

What held him back last season .....IIRC he had a great PS & we all thought he was a definite to play some games ....yet nothing?

He got injured.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

He got injured.

The whole season ? What did he injure?

 

[Me Myself and I]

The whole season ? What did he injure?

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2017-12-21/cameron-not-holding-back-17

 

[Obese Arachnid]

Fingers crossed on Cameron starting round 1, if he has a ripper JLT? he could well play round 1 like he was going to last year. Could he be the saving grace as ruck cover?

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2017-12-21/cameron-not-holding-back

Locked.

Starting rucks Preuss Goose & Cameron Diaz.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Locked.

Starting rucks Preuss Goose & Cameron Diaz.

With Cripps at M8

 

[Obese Arachnid]

With Cripps at M8

Plus Hurn at D1.

It's a masterstroke, or a stroke of some kind.

 

[big_bazza]

What held him back last season .....IIRC he had a great PS & we all thought he was a definite to play some games ....yet nothing?

Injuries mate, he got injured before rd 1 like a week or 2 before and then came back and got injured gain. looks a very likely type. Could hopefuly be a poor man Witts for next year and relative to his starting price.