Prediction 2018 trade hypothetical thread

[Stifler's mom]

I would want to have a look at him, could be another Jarryd Lyons type to bring into the club.

QLD lad in form, we would benefit from having him in the team. Midfield goals are something we don't have a lot of.

Question would be whether he would want to come up and struggle for another year or 2 before we look like a finals outfit, and whether the Pies want to part with him? Could easily give him a pay rise, what is his contract situation like?

I think he is out of contract at seasons end, but not certain.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

WBulldogs have P5 atm... trade to the Crows for P8 and P19

It will more then likely be mitch and their pick say 19 for pick 5. Then we make an offer for Jeremy.

 

[Suma Magic]

The problem is you’re still heavily speculating with pick 40 on him. Recruiters would back themselves to find something else with their pick 40 IMO.

Another comparison so I don’t seem biased. Brennan Cox was pick 41. He easily had a better first year than Petrucelle. Is having a good second season for a young tall.

If he were to leave? We’d be lucky to get a pick of similar value ~ 40.

First rounders go for stars or young potential guns. 2nd rounders go for best 22 players or still young potential guns. 3rd rounders go for ‘go home players’ or nobodies that other teams seek.

Petro isn’t 1st or 2nd round.

If cox left and you got pick 40 would your reaction seriously be “wow we were lucky to get that much for him!”?

 

[Cobbler]

If cox left and you got pick 40 would your reaction seriously be “wow we were lucky to get that much for him!”?

No I’d be pissed.

What I’d want and what would be realistic are vastly different.

If he walked out I’d say wow we were lucky if we got pick 25-30. If we put him up for trade we’d also be lucky to get 25-30 for him.

Most players from most clubs would argue its better to keep the player then play the draft pick game. Hence why we all overrate our own players.

 

[Suma Magic]

No I’d be pissed.

What I’d want and what would be realistic are vastly different.

If he walked out I’d say wow we were lucky if we got pick 25-30. If we put him up for trade we’d also be lucky to get 25-30 for him.

Most players from most clubs would argue its better to keep the player then play the draft pick game. Hence why we all overrate our own players.

You said you’d be lucky to get 40 for him. Let’s agree to disagree on that one.

 

[JustInsideFifty]

I would want to have a look at him, could be another Jarryd Lyons type to bring into the club.

QLD lad in form, we would benefit from having him in the team. Midfield goals are something we don't have a lot of.

Question would be whether he would want to come up and struggle for another year or 2 before we look like a finals outfit, and whether the Pies want to part with him? Could easily give him a pay rise, what is his contract situation like?

Thomas is a free agent.

 

[Cobbler]

You said you’d be lucky to get 40 for him. Let’s agree to disagree on that one.

Yes.
We would be lucky to get 40 for him.

I’d say ‘wow that was lucky to get 25-30’ for him.

There is a difference there.

 

[Suma Magic]

Yes.
We would be lucky to get 40 for him.

I’d say ‘wow that was lucky to get 25-30’ for him.

There is a difference there.

I understood.

My post still stands.

 

[Obeanie1]

West Coast will not be able to match North's Gaff offer especially when they pay more for McGovern.

Dont be so sure. If Gaff wants to go back to Melbourne the Eagles could match because he wants to move, same situation as Danderfield. Then multiple clubs would trade.

Gaff IMO is worth more than Gov as he is much harder to replace.

If we matched a Gov offer he would just happily stay.

End of the day we have the likes of Jetta coming out of contract, if the choice was to retain both Gov and Gaff and cut Jetta I know what choice I would make.

 

[Obeanie1]

Haha

Lycett wouldn’t get pick 16 if west coast had incriminating photos of the other trading party.

They would rather be outed as a nazi with signed beiber posters cheating on their wife with a goat than be the guy who paid pick 16 for free agent lycett.

Lycett wouldnt get pick 16, agree.

A low to medium pick in the 20's, say 20 to 26 is about right.

 

[Groin guru]

The thing is getting Gaff to accept norths offer, He would be looking to go to a team thats challenging for a flag

So North...

 

[Turbocat]

Dont be so sure. If Gaff wants to go back to Melbourne the Eagles could match because he wants to move, same situation as Danderfield. Then multiple clubs would trade.

Gaff IMO is worth more than Gov as he is much harder to replace.

If we matched a Gov offer he would just happily stay.

End of the day we have the likes of Jetta coming out of contract, if the choice was to retain both Gov and Gaff and cut Jetta I know what choice I would make.

Eagles could "threaten" to match because he wants to move, same situation as Danderfield.

I dont see a club matching anyone.. once destination club has been informed that the current club will match... it would take the destination club to disbelieve the other to still submit the offer. ie ... they are only bluffing.. Id say they will all know it other better than that.
I could imagine WC telling Geelong for example ... "Wellys..im telling you.. and we have know each for ages... we will match any offer up to 1.2M (for eg.) .."

 

[Suma Magic]

Eagles could "threaten" to match because he wants to move, same situation as Danderfield.

I dont see a club matching anyone.. once destination club has been informed that the current club will match... it would take the destination club to disbelieve the other to still submit the offer. ie ... they are only bluffing.. Id say they will all know it other better than that.
I could imagine WC telling Geelong for example ... "Wellys..im telling you.. and we have know each for ages... we will match any offer up to 1.2M (for eg.) .."

I think it will happen. It was so obvious that the crows would have matched, such was the salary offer and likely compensation.

I think other RFA situations will be less clear cut, and it would make sense for a club to not take the other clubs word, and formally submit the offer.

 

[Turbocat]

I think it will happen. It was so obvious that the crows would have matched, such was the salary offer and likely compensation.

I think other RFA situations will be less clear cut, and it would make sense for a club to not take the other clubs word, and formally submit the offer.

what will happen? Matching? Dont agree.

 

[Suma Magic]

what will happen? Matching? Dont agree.

Agree to disagree then.

I just don’t think the Dangerfield example is a good precedent as I think it will be rare that both these conditions are met:
1) it’s so blatantly obvious that a player’s current team can afford the dollars offered and would want to keep them at that price
2) the compo is clearly inadequate.

Edit, a quick attempt at a scenario table:

 

[Prochard123]

Wanted him but not as desperate as Weller , He look good playing alongside with Stephenson , Degoey , Hoskins in the forward line and service from Peddle , sidebottom and Grundy . I think he is those type that look good when their team are winning but disappeared when the battle are on ,maybe third round pick if Dew want him.

He's been phenomenal. Actually quite crucial to our team as he's one of the only 2 players we have that can play both inside mid and hit the score board FREQUENTLY. 24 goals 8 behinds in 14 games...Alot more impressive than other small forwards that just sit in forward line all day. If he played full time forward probably will get 40-45 goals a year.

What you guys are prepared to offer him is another matter. But personally I feel like we would be worse off with anything less than a late first round pick (pick 15 ish).

He's probably close to top 10 in our B n F already...

 

[Peel67skin]

He's been phenomenal. Actually quite crucial to our team as he's one of the only 2 players we have that can play both inside mid and hit the score board FREQUENTLY. 24 goals 8 behinds in 14 games...Alot more impressive than other small forwards that just sit in forward line all day. If he played full time forward probably will get 40-45 goals a year.

What you guys are prepared to offer him is another matter. But personally I feel like we would be worse off with anything less than a late first round pick (pick 15 ish).

He's probably close to top 10 in our B n F already...

Fair enough , you better keep him then . I won't touch a player that are 26+ and not in B N F when Collingwood playing badly last few season . Like I said he is worth more to Collingwood as Buckley found his forward line formula, without Blair , Fasolo , Moore .

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Harry McKay for North Melbourne's 2019 First round pick?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Harry McKay for North Melbourne's 2019 First round pick?

Wouldn’t you just keep McKay? You need forwards not less of them!

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Wouldn’t you just keep McKay? You need forwards not less of them!

Depends if we take Lukosious with pick #1 this year. A fwd line of Lukosios, Curnow & McKay i dont see working, we also have Paddy Kerr who has shown a bit and Levi for the next few years. Pointless holding a former top pick key forward to play in the VFL when you can get some value out of him, especially if that 2019 first round pick allows us to get a mid like Dylan Shiel which is our real need.

 

[Dangerousfield]

Josh Thomas.

Currently 26, turning 27 in October.

Josh is having his best season after a 2 year suspension for a positive illicit drug test.

Does anyone think he is just the type of player that GC should chase?

Not suggesting the Pies want to trade him, but he would be on minimum $’s at the Pies and GC have a truckload of cap space and they should be desperate for ready made senior players, especially if they have a local connection.
24 goals in 14 games this season.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/J/Josh_Thomas.html

Thoughts??

Free Agent so well worth chucking $ his way, GC can offer a stack more than the Pies and need mature players.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Depends if we take Lukosious with pick #1 this year. A fwd line of Lukosios, Curnow & McKay i dont see working, we also have Paddy Kerr who has shown a bit and Levi for the next few years. Pointless holding a former top pick key forward to play in the VFL when you can get some value out of him, especially if that 2019 first round pick allows us to get a mid like Dylan Shiel which is our real need.

You are selling at the worst time. Don’t see how all 3 couldn’t work anyway. Kerr will be handy but he’s just that right now, McKay has more scope.

 

[Turbocat]

Agree to disagree then.

I just don’t think the Dangerfield example is a good precedent as I think it will be rare that both these conditions are met:
1) it’s so blatantly obvious that a player’s current team can afford the dollars offered and would want to keep them at that price
2) the compo is clearly inadequate.

Edit, a quick attempt at a scenario table:

View attachment 522519

Didn't you use the Dangerfield situation? sorry not you but the post ...

For what its worth ... the comp is not meant to be a full compensation for teams at the top of the ladder.. I have questions over whether league ladder leaders should get any comp.

 

[Obeanie1]

Eagles could "threaten" to match because he wants to move, same situation as Danderfield.

I dont see a club matching anyone.. once destination club has been informed that the current club will match... it would take the destination club to disbelieve the other to still submit the offer. ie ... they are only bluffing.. Id say they will all know it other better than that.
I could imagine WC telling Geelong for example ... "Wellys..im telling you.. and we have know each for ages... we will match any offer up to 1.2M (for eg.) .."

Correct. The club states it will match without qctually haven't ng to formally match a fa bid.

Which is still matching!

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Depends if we take Lukosious with pick #1 this year. A fwd line of Lukosios, Curnow & McKay i dont see working, we also have Paddy Kerr who has shown a bit and Levi for the next few years. Pointless holding a former top pick key forward to play in the VFL when you can get some value out of him, especially if that 2019 first round pick allows us to get a mid like Dylan Shiel which is our real need.

I reckon that's almost the prototype of your ideal modern forward line if they all come on. McKay as a deeper but still mobile option that can contest the high ball and relief ruck in spurts, Lukosius as a roaming half-forward that can push up and back and serve as an equally valuable link player or target, and Curnow as a slightly smaller, damaging type that is equally capable at ground level and in the air. Surround them with some pressure and a bit of speed and it's a structure that can absolutely buck the trend away from three KPPs.