Prediction 2018 trade hypothetical thread

[Tyler Hodges]

Quick look and reckon Bris, GWS and swans fans would be unimpressed to say the least.

Hmm after posting I was reading about Hanners worth, genuinely didn't realise he was only 27 thought he'd be 29-30 he fell off such a cliff this year. Your right his value gives more back to the swans, Saints going to have to fall back in the draft from 4 to get the pieces they need.

As for the others GWS by all reports are hamstrung and a bidding war for Shiels between STK, CARL, HAWKS and ESS is their best hope for a decent trade period, they just can't take anyone good with the cap. Thought the Lions would take Neale for virtually pick 5 and Mayes considering I'm hearing talks of 5 and 23 on the table for a straight swap? Won't lie dont have a great read on Mayes value.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Quick look and reckon Bris, GWS and swans fans would be unimpressed to say the least.

Not from Brisbane's perspective. 5 and 23 is what we expect to pay for Neale, and a second round pick for Mayes is good.

But there's no chance in hell Lukosius makes it to 4. And Melbourne get shafted hard, if they don't end up with at least pick 6 from Hogan, they got robbed.

 

[Tyler Hodges]

Reckon the crows would want Carlton to bundle 24/25 for 12-15 range. 2nd rounders don't really give us anything decent

Fir enough, Would you be happy with a 7&15 bundle even if its a 50/50 one of Lukosius or Rankine might be off the table?

 

[Tyler Hodges]

Not from Brisbane's perspective. 5 and 23 is what we expect to pay for Neale, and a second round pick for Mayes is good.

But there's no chance in hell Lukosius makes it to 4. And Melbourne get shafted hard, if they don't end up with at least pick 6 from Hogan, they got robbed.

considering Hogan is contracted maybe 6 and 9 would be more realistic and freo keep 10.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

considering Hogan is contracted maybe 6 and 9 would be more realistic and freo keep 10.

I like my trade better

 

[Xhoquelin]

Just an experiment:

Gaff + 20 + 21 (Lycett compo) for Hogan. How would that compare to 9 and 10?

The reason being end of round 1 for Gaff is crap and I wonder if Melbourne want more then draft picks?

That’s more like it.

Unless we get Rankine who can slot right into our forward pocket, which we can’t with the picks being floated for Hogan, we would much prefer ready made players.

Problem is Freo don’t have anyone in that 24-27 age range that would even entertain a move; Walters/Hill bros/Hamling all absolute guns but all off the table.

Obviously Gaff isn’t coming to the Dees which means a west coast deal becomes harder. Didn’t realise we didn’t have the cap to offer Gaff a good deal.

 

[King Patty]

Hawthorn: In: Dylan Shiel, 49
Out: pick 14, 2019 first rd and ceglar
And Hawks pay Ceglars wage in 2019.

 

[Tyler Hodges]

Hawthorn: In: Dylan Shiel, 49
Out: pick 14, 2019 first rd and ceglar
And Hawks pay Ceglars wage in 2019.

This is where we need NBA style pick protection. Top 10 protected and I'd do that trade in a heartbeat but considering the tough 2019 draw well be getting I could see hawks giving up a top 10 pick next year which makes it a loss. Would probably still do.

 

[PMBangers]

GWS
In: 33, 35
Out: Lobb

Big No

GWS: OUT- Shiels, Lobb, IN- Pick 22, Pick 8 C+

Also a Big No

 

[Rob R]

Sorry if this is pretty freo based but this seems like it's going to be a huge trade period for them. Not counting restricted FA's they will all go to aformentioned teams (GAFF NM, LYCETT PORT, LYNCH RICH ETC)

FREO: OUT- Neale, 2019 Second Round Pick, Pick 22 IN- Hogan, Lobb A+
BRISBANE: OUT- Pick 4, Pick 22, Mayes IN- Neale, FREO 2019 Second Rd Pick A
PORT: OUT- Polec, Pick 9, Pick 21 IN- Pick 4, Mayes, Pick 28 C
NORTH: OUT- Pick 10, Pick 28 IN- Polec, Pick 21 C+
DEMONS: OUT- Hogan, Kent, Vandenburg IN: Pick 9(Traded for May), Pick 10, STK 2019 Third Rd Pick. D+
GC: OUT- May, IN- Pick 9, Pick 30, C+
GWS: OUT- Shiels, Lobb, IN- Pick 22, Pick 8 C+
ESSENDON: OUT- Pick 8, IN- Shiels A-
SWANS: OUT- Pick 30, Rohan, Hannebery IN- VandenBurg, Pick 36, Picks 57 and 61, B+
STK: OUT- Picks 3, 57,61 IN- Pick 7, Pick 15, Hannebery, Kent B+
GEEL: OUT- Kelly IN- Pick 20, G.Rohan C+
WCE: OUT- Pick 20, Pick 36 IN- Kelly C
CARL- OUT- Picks 24 and 25, 2019 3rd RD Pick IN- M.McGovern, Pick 37 B-
ADELAIDE: OUT- McGovern, Pick 7, Pick 15, Pick 37 IN: Pick 3, Pick 24, Pick 25, 2019 CARL 3rd Rd Pick B+

Hawks, Richmond, Pies, Dogs all pretty quiet.
Bit of rationale behind the trades. Demons get into bidding war with Pies for May so have to pay slight overs 9,30 for May, virtually losing Vandenburg for nil after he has to go home to Sydney. Crows swoop in on Ports parade by swapping 7,15 for St kilda's pick to steal Lukosius after its confirmed GC will take King brothers with 2 and 3. Neale trade falls into Freo's lap allowing them to keep both this years and next year's first round picks- GWS had to shed salary so just wind up with some decent draft Picks.

This years draft will dictate a lot of activity in trade period, more than ever before as it will dominate the SA clubs plays.
Pick 1- Carlton take S.WALSH
Pick 2- GC take M.KING
Pick 3- GC take B.KING
Pick 4- Adelaide take J.LUKOSIUS
Pick 5- Port take I.RANKINE
Pick 6- Freo take B.SMITH

Would these sides supporters be pleased with this trade period prediction?

Are you suggesting the Saints get Hannebery and Kent for 57 & 61? GWS & Swans lose out big time.

 

[Tyler Hodges]

Are you suggesting the Saints get Hannebery and Kent for 57 & 61? GWS & Swans lose out big time.

The trade for 15 sees it head back to swans, but would recieve 36 in return. 57 and 61 for Kent seems more likely.

 

[Tyler Hodges]

Big No


Also a Big No

You would rather hawks 14 and next yrs 1st for Shiels? Hardest seen GWS coming out of this trade period successfully considering their cash restraints.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Big No

What are you realistically expecting in return? I doubt the Giants will get anything more than a pick in the early 2nd given the salary cap crunch and Lobb being likely to make a trade request. Two second round picks surely gets around that value.

 

[jatsad]

Purely hypothetical that's why I am in here.

These trades are before any compo picks that may be allocated.

These trades whilst having similar parts will all be separate to make it easier.


Trade 1: Ade trade 7+19 to St K for 3+ 57 (2,592 points for 2,416 not that points matter all that much but for note takers)

Trade 2: St K trade 19 to Syd for Hannebery

Trade 3: Syd trade 19+66 to Coll for Moore and 48

Trade 4: Carl trade 24+25 to Syd for 12 (1,541 points for 1,268)

Trade 5: Carl trade 12 to Ade for McGovern (Carl offering 24+25 for MM Crows want 15~ surely that is there abouts?)

So this leaves:
Adelaide IN: 3, 12, 57
Adelaide OUT: McGovern, 7, 19

Sydney IN: Moore, 24, 25, 48
Sydney OUT: Hannebery, 12, 66

Collingwood IN: 19, 66
Collingwood OUT: Moore, 48

Carlton IN: McGovern
Carlton OUT: 24, 25

St Kilda IN: Hannebury, 7
St Kilda OUT: 3, 57

Saints take a 4 spot slide in the draft but get Hannebury with an early second which is there abouts.

Sydney bank points for Blakely. 12+66= 1348 (roughly pick 11) 24+25+48= 1843 (roughly pick 6)

If you think Collingwood will give up Moore and pick 48 for 19 and 66, you've got rocks in your head

 

[jatsad]

Brisbane
Out: pick 4, pick 40
In: Lachie Neale

Melbourne
Out: Jesse Hogan
In: Steven May, Kade Koladjashnij

Gold Coast
Out: Steven May, Kade Koladjashnij
In: pick 4, pick 17

Freo:
Out: Lachie Neale, pick 5
In: Jesse Hogan, 2019 pies 1st round pick, Tom Langdon

Pies:
Out: Pick 17, 2019 1st round pick, Tom Langdon
In: pick 5, pick 40

Are you serious, how do the Pies do well with that trade? 2 first round picks AND Langdom for 5 and 40. No possible way

 

[Rob R]

The trade for 15 sees it head back to swans, but would recieve 36 in return. 57 and 61 for Kent seems more likely.

Sorry, I missed that. That evens it up. Good on you for trying to sort all of the trades out in one hit and making a pretty good job of it.

 

[Rob R]

The trade for 15 sees it head back to swans, but would recieve 36 in return. 57 and 61 for Kent seems more likely.

Sorry, I missed that. That evens it up. Good on you for trying to sort all of the trades out in one hit and making a pretty good job of it.

 

[Prochard123]

Are you serious, how do the Pies do well with that trade? 2 first round picks AND Langdom for 5 and 40. No possible way

Pick 17 x 2 is 2 first rounders
Pick 1 x 2 is also 2 first rounders

Keep trying to spin it

 

[markm106]

I read somewhere that apparently Sam Mclure reporter Tim English wants a trade back to WA. although I can’t confirm he said it anywhere as not on any of his twitter accounts.

Anyone else heard anything?

 

[Crowstar]

Fir enough, Would you be happy with a 7&15 bundle even if its a 50/50 one of Lukosius or Rankine might be off the table?

Hmmmm....it's a strong draft. I'd rather us take 4 x 1st rounders into the draft and bank on our development. I think we have 7,15,19 so far and if w can get another one say 13 I'd be pretty comfortable with that. We could get Hately, Valente, Butters, possibly Rozee at 7. Exciting times.

 

[Freoforever86]

I read somewhere that apparently Sam Mclure reporter Tim English wants a trade back to WA. although I can’t confirm he said it anywhere as not on any of his twitter accounts.

Anyone else heard anything?

He seems to just throw names around at will

 

[PMBangers]

You would rather hawks 14 and next yrs 1st for Shiels? Hardest seen GWS coming out of this trade period successfully considering their cash restraints.

Don't you blokes have Shiels? I definitley think Shiel is worth two first rounders however

What are you realistically expecting in return? I doubt the Giants will get anything more than a pick in the early 2nd given the salary cap crunch and Lobb being likely to make a trade request. Two second round picks surely gets around that value.

2 late second round picks don't represent value for Lobb. A pick between 15-20 is what would be expected

 

[SnPshaker]

If you think Collingwood will give up Moore and pick 48 for 19 and 66, you've got rocks in your head

Well if he re-signs you won't need to worry about the trade.

I think 19 is to much for Moore alone. But Sydney won't be keen on giving up a stockpile of later 2nd's due to wanting to keep the points. Would want a point increase to come back to even it out somewhat.

 

[Couch Coach]

Well if he re-signs you won't need to worry about the trade.

I think 19 is to much for Moore alone. But Sydney won't be keen on giving up a stockpile of later 2nd's due to wanting to keep the points. Would want a point increase to come back to even it out somewhat.

Based upon points value that values Moore as:
948 + 80 - 302 = 726 or pick 26ish.

Personally I would rather keep Moore than get pick 26.

 

[Couch Coach]

Pick 17 x 2 is 2 first rounders
Pick 1 x 2 is also 2 first rounders

Keep trying to spin it

17 = 1025 pts
5 = 1878 pts
40 = 429 pts

1025 + 1025 + Langdon - 1878 - 429 = -257 therefore T Langdon valued as a Pick 51 / 52.

No thanks.