Resource 2019 AFL Draft Order

[grimlock]

The AFL have finally done an article on the 2019 future picks.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-12-04/future-picks-who-you-should-barrack-against-in-2019

About time, but they stuffed up Carlton's outs. Mixed up what should have been "R2 to Adelaide and R5 to GWS" with "R2 to GWS and R5 to Adelaide"

 

[Lore]

About time, but they stuffed up Carlton's outs. Mixed up what should have been "R2 to Adelaide and R5 to GWS" with "R2 to GWS and R5 to Adelaide"

They've given Hawthorn's round 4 pick to both Port Adelaide and Collingwood as well.

You and I both have Port with the Dogs' R4 pick instead of Hawthorn's, Hawthorn's R4 is with Collingwood.

 

[Lore]

I think I'm just going to call it at this point. This is as good as it's going to get, short of clarification around who actually has Hawthorn's 4th round pick.

 

[DangerSloane]

Absolute guru Lore keep up the good work

 

[Dylan82]

Lore - I think there may be a few minor things that have been missed in this:


**EDIT** - wrongful data previously posted - now removed to keep things tidy.


GWS are carrying a 43 point deficit after the 2018 selection of Briggs at 34. Currently this impacts their third round pick which should reduce it from 49 to 53.

 

[Lore]

Lore - I think there may be a few minor things that have been missed in this:

Pick 39 should be with North Melbourne [Link]
Pick 46 should be with Bulldogs [Link]
Pick 67 should be with St Kilda [Link]
Pick 73 should be with Carlton [Link]
Pick 79 should be with GWS [Link]

GWS are carrying a 43 point deficit after the 2018 selection of Briggs at 34. Currently this impacts their third round pick which should reduce it from 49 to 53.


Which means the current [according to 2018 finishing positions] would be as follows:

View attachment 640180

More than happy to assist you in this if you like, I already have a sheet on hand that works out FA and NGA pick calculations in addition to trades.

I won't rely on draft guru as a source. As a collective we've gone over every trade to try and get it right over the last few months so I doubt we have that many picks wrong (you can scroll back through the thread if you can see somewhere we've gone wrong in our reasoning).

What I have in the OP matches with what the AFL House twitter, AFL website and club websites have published, but if you have any other sources then we can look into where it might've gone wrong.

 

[footyfan1978]

Yep, sticking to your process. Well done.

 

[Dylan82]

First off, apologies to all - I've jumped the shark on this one.


Pick 46 with North Melbourne and Pick 39 with Bulldogs is correct - 2019 3rd Rounder originally from St Kilda ontraded as confirmed by @NMFCOfficial

Pick 73 with GWS and pick 79 with Carlton is correct - Confusion over which 5th Rounders Adelaide gave to whom. Source here suggests Carlton received Adelaide's original 5th Round pick. Doing so would also avoid illegally trading 73 back to Carlton.

Pick 67 with Carlton is most likely correct so far as can be gathered about them receiving the GWS-reliant 4th Rounder from St Kilda.


I'm looking around for sources without much success, but am convinced that GWS are carrying a draft point deficit into 2019.
They used pick 48 alone (their next available pick at the time was 85) to match for Briggs at 34 - even with the discount applied it's not enough (i.e. 542 - 197 - 302 = 43).
As far as my understanding of deficit carryover goes, the deficit is to be applied next season to the corresponding round that the matched bid took place in. So in this case with Pick 34 being in the 2nd Round, the 2019 points deficit for GWS would be taken from their first pick that falls from the 2nd Round onwards. Currently that is the 3rd Round pick 49, worth 287 points. Removing 43 points from 287 reduces it to 244, which moves that pick downwards to 53. If GWS gain a pick outside the 1st Round that is higher than 49, the points deficit should apply to that instead.

 

[Lore]

First off, apologies to all - I've jumped the shark on this one.


Pick 46 with North Melbourne and Pick 39 with Bulldogs is correct - 2019 3rd Rounder originally from St Kilda ontraded as confirmed by @NMFCOfficial

Pick 73 with GWS and pick 79 with Carlton is correct - Confusion over which 5th Rounders Adelaide gave to whom. Source here suggests Carlton received Adelaide's original 5th Round pick. Doing so would also avoid illegally trading 73 back to Carlton.

Pick 67 with Carlton is most likely correct so far as can be gathered about them receiving the GWS-reliant 4th Rounder from St Kilda.


I'm looking around for sources without much success, but am convinced that GWS are carrying a draft point deficit into 2019.
They used pick 48 alone (their next available pick at the time was 85) to match for Briggs at 34 - even with the discount applied it's not enough (i.e. 542 - 197 - 302 = 43).
As far as my understanding of deficit carryover goes, the deficit is to be applied next season to the corresponding round that the matched bid took place in. So in this case with Pick 34 being in the 2nd Round, the 2019 points deficit for GWS would be taken from their first pick that falls from the 2nd Round onwards. Currently that is the 3rd Round pick 49, worth 287 points. Removing 43 points from 287 reduces it to 244, which moves that pick downwards to 53. If GWS gain a pick outside the 1st Round that is higher than 49, the points deficit should apply to that instead.

Thanks for checking


I’ll look into the points deficit when I get a chance, but most likely I won’t try and factor that into the draft order at this stage. I may add a caveat to the OP instead that whatever their first pick is may slide slightly.

When GWS had draft penalties for the Whitfield saga I had an automatic updating thing in the spreadsheet that deducted the points and sorted the pick back into the order but it caused a lot of headaches.

I’m not even sure if it’ll be applied before or after the trade period.

Once GWS finish for 2018 and the order has settled I’ll probably revisit it and update the spreadsheet manually from there.

 

[footyfan1978]

I think the points thing for the draft you will almost need to sit through the video replay of draft to see what the points were at time. Those points change very quickly in real time due to team's passing picks and order changing quite rapidly. If you try to work it out working backwards much more likely to make mistakes. The draft itself was still on Kayo stream on demand a month or so ago. Not sure if still there but could help with that if it still available to check the exact point of draft you need to check.

 

[Lore]

I think the points thing for the draft you will almost need to sit through the video replay of draft to see what the points were at time. Those points change very quickly in real time due to team's passing picks and order changing quite rapidly. If you try to work it out working backwards much more likely to make mistakes. The draft itself was still on Kayo stream on demand a month or so ago. Not sure if still there but could help with that if it still available to check the exact point of draft you need to check.

I may or may not have the recording on the Foxtel box actually headaches nonetheless. By the end of round 23 ish they’ll be publishing the draft order proper on the afl website and we can verify it for sure then.

 

[SBYM]

Best thread on BF for plonkers like myself...

Top work Lore

 

[briztoon]

As with previous editions from previous years, this spreadsheet is updated automatically at the end of each round, usually on a Monday or Tuesday.

Through the trade period I will try and keep it as up to date as possible, but I am one person so please be patient.

Tag me if you notice anything that isn't quite right!

For the 2018 version, see here:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2018-nominal-afl-draft-order.1179329/

For the 2017 version, see here:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2017-nominal-afl-draft-order.1160828/

For the 2016 version, see here:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2016-nominal-afl-draft-order.1136636/​

Hey Lore, unless I missed something, this hasn't updated.

 

[Lore]

Hey Lore, unless I missed something, this hasn't updated.

Ah, I was waiting on AFL tables to get updated earlier in the week and then got busier and forgot to check back. I'll fix it up now.

 

[Lore]

Round 1:

 

[Turbocat]

As with previous editions from previous years, this spreadsheet is updated automatically at the end of each round, usually on a Monday or Tuesday.

Through the trade period I will try and keep it as up to date as possible, but I am one person so please be patient.

Tag me if you notice anything that isn't quite right!

For the 2018 version, see here:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2018-nominal-afl-draft-order.1179329/

For the 2017 version, see here:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2017-nominal-afl-draft-order.1160828/

For the 2016 version, see here:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2016-nominal-afl-draft-order.1136636/​

Really enjoy the work you put in so well done Lore.. When discussing possible trade or what ever your thread is so helpful..

If I could make one small suggestion.. just some sort of reference in the top of your spreadsheet to show.."After R2" etc.

 

[Lore]

Round 2:

Really enjoy the work you put in so well done Lore.. When discussing possible trade or what ever your thread is so helpful..

If I could make one small suggestion.. just some sort of reference in the top of your spreadsheet to show.."After R2" etc.

Had a go at getting it to do that automatically when the spreadsheet updates, but depending on how bad my tired brain is right now it may not work perfectly (particularly around the bye weeks).

 

[Freomaniac]

going to be interesting on how this plays out

 

[Lore]

Round 3:

 

[crows dude]

How can Sydney have 9 picks and other teams 5 when we dont even know how many list spots each team will have

 

[RUNVS]

How can Sydney have 9 picks and other teams 5 when we dont even know how many list spots each team will have

I want to know where pick 27 came from. No clue who we are getting that off.

 

[Lore]

How can Sydney have 9 picks and other teams 5 when we dont even know how many list spots each team will have

These are provisional picks. We won't know how many list spots are actually open until shortly before the draft, after the trade period. Once that is finalised, the picks that clubs don't need will be forfeit and the rest of the clubs will move up the order. At that point the AFL will release the revised draft order and this spreadsheet will be updated accordingly with those picks removed.

The Swans have traded in more picks in the first 7 rounds (which have coloured backgrounds) so that's why there are more coloured picks on the spreadsheet next to their name. But you'll also notice a bunch of picks with grey numbers on white backgrounds - those picks can be used too if clubs decide they need them and have enough spots on their lists to use them. That's pretty much what happened a couple of years ago when one of the clubs traded all of their earlier picks bar a second rounder - they took picks in round 8 and 9 to fill their roster.

 

[Lore]

I want to know where pick 27 came from. No clue who we are getting that off.

In the second tab of the spreadsheet you can see where the picks originated and where they landed after each trade period closed, you have St Kilda's second rounder which is currently pick 27. Running a search of the thread (which I have been updating since the start of the trade period last year) we find this post;

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...ased-on-current-ladder.1206928/#post-58427844

Which states that Sydney received St Kilda's second round pick in the trade for Dan Hannebery.

All of the posts in this thread about a pick being traded are labeled that way so that it can be found with the search feature, because it does my head in having to check tweets and screenshots to figure it out after the fact.

 

[Virgin Dog]

How can Sydney have 9 picks and other teams 5 when we dont even know how many list spots each team will have

It's currency they hold - if they need to fill 6 list spots, they can trade 3 of the others away for future picks, or combine them to move up the order by trading with another team

 

[Lore]

Round 4: