2019 European Parliament Election - EUROPEAN PEOPLE'S PARTY WIN

[Bomberboyokay]

751 seats across the European Union. The electorates are countries or bits of countries.

Will the radical right consolidate power in the heart of the EU this year?

Cas Mudde
Sat 12 Jan 2019 03.32 AEDT Last modified on Sat 12 Jan 2019 03.47 AEDT

Every five years, millions of Europeans across the continent go to the polls to elect their national members of the European parliament. This May we’ll be doing so again, in what could be a watershed election for rightwing populists.

Although radical right parties won pretty big in the past two European elections, their influence within the various umbrella groups that make up the European parliament’s power blocs remained limited. This year, most rightwing populist parties may make only modest seat gains. But they also have the opportunity to create, for the first time, a serious rival to the centrist political groups that until now have dominated the EU’s governing body.

Today, the right wing’s most powerful group, and the third largest in the European parliament, is the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a Eurosceptic coalition dominated by British Conservatives. Assuming Brexit goes ahead, the ECR will lose its dominant member, and so will a separate rightwing group led by Ukip. As a result, the populist right is wide open to new leaders and possibly new organisations.

On Wednesday, in Warsaw, Matteo Salvini, Italy’s interior minister and the leader of its rightwing Northern League (LN), met with Jarosław Kaczyński, the head of Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party and the true power behind the Polish government. They were there allegedly to discuss the formation of a new political group within the European parliament.

Although Kaczyński is anti-Russian and Salvini is one of Putin’s biggest cheerleaders, both men share a deep distrust of the EU, an intense dislike of (especially Muslim) immigrants, and a strong support for traditional Catholic values. They also share a need to protect their countries from EU pressure. Poland is facing sanctions for its attacks on liberal democracy, while Italy has been criticised by Brussels for its fiscal and immigration policies.

Salvini is currently a member of the radical right Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF), the smallest group in the European parliament, which is dominated by Marine Le Pen’s renamed National Rally. As the dominant politician in one of the EU’s largest member states, Salvini has politically outgrown this group.

If he can bring together the ENF’s main parties with the ECR, in which Kaczyński will become the major player, this radical right ECR-plus could end up rivalling the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), which is currently the second largest group in parliament, but is set for massive electoral losses in May. Moreover, the parties that would make up the ECR-plus would have positions in the governments of many EU member states and would even have prime ministers – including Giuseppe Conti from Italy and Mateusz Morawiecki from Poland – in the European council.

Of course, it’s not a given that the Kaczyński-Salvini alliance will materialise. In the run-up to the 2014 European election, the big story on the radical right was the new alliance of Le Pen and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, two electorally successful but politically marginalised politicians. The media eagerly and uncritically repeated grandiose claims that they were going to create a big political group that would “wreck the EU from inside”. In the end, it took them a year to make a small group, which remained irrelevant throughout the whole legislative period.

That said, there is no doubt that radical right parties will be more prominent in the new European parliament. We are likely to see big gains from Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Vox in Spain, which will both become medium-sized parties in big countries, which means a lot of new seats in the European parliament.

Moreover, radical right parties will be even more mainstreamed than before. As the largest right-wing groups, including ECR, drift farther and farther to the right, collaboration between the mainstream and radical conservatives, both within and between umbrella groups, will become the norm in the next parliament, particularly on prime issues like immigration and security.

Will radical right parties succeed in fundamentally transforming the EU? Probably not. But they could block the reforms the EU desperately needs in order to address not just fundamental internal challenges – like Brexit and slow economic growth – but also an increasingly hostile world, dominated by two leaders, Putin and Trump, intent on weakening the EU further. The greatest irony of all, of course, is that they’ll be doing all this damage in Brussels – right in the heart of the European Union they are so intent on destroying.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2019/jan/11/radical-right-consolidate-power-heart-eu

 

[Bomberboyokay]

 

[Bomberboyokay]

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Who are you voting for medusala?

 

[medusala]

Who are you voting for medusala?

I have only ever voted twice over here, not sure I can be bothered. Certainly wouldnt vote Tory, current UKIP leader is an utter fool and will see the party fold. Not sure where Farage is at with his new party. I think its a racing certainty that the Tories will do extremely badly.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Could we ironically see the highest UK turnout ever for a European election if Farage chooses to mobilise Leavers to cast protest votes?

 

[WA ROO]

Markus Meechan will make an awesome MEP

 

[medusala]

Could we ironically see the highest UK turnout ever for a European election if Farage chooses to mobilise Leavers to cast protest votes?

Lots of remainers will vote too one would think. The referendum turnout was actually rather high. Wouldnt surprise if Tories got 15-20%. Papers here saying that members are refusing to door knock or post leaflets in protest against May being such a useless muppet.

 

[The Speaker]

Latest YouGov poll has the Brexit Party at 27%.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Latest YouGov poll has the Brexit Party at 27%.

That will probably grow even more one would think? There’s pretty much no argument the major parties could make to win over Leave voters. Low enthusiasm and turnout is the best they can hope for.

 

[The Speaker]

That will probably grow even more one would think? There’s pretty much no argument the major parties could make to win over Leave voters. Low enthusiasm and turnout is the best they can hope for.

UKIP got 26.6% at the last EU Parliament election. BP will be aiming to do better than that given that this party is meant to be a broad church and doesn't have the kind of baggage that prevented UKIP from being likewise. Already seen people saying that while they were never willing to vote for UKIP, they'd be alright with voting for BP.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

I do not envy whoever has to write the contents of the Conservative manifesto for these elections. Unless Mrs May has been pushed to a different position by the time they take place, we must assume that the manifesto will recommend her withdrawal agreement to the country. That deal is not only unloved by voters, it is detested by the large numbers of Tory members who are no-dealers. A Conservative election agent in the key battleground of the Midlands bleakly predicts: “Our people will simply not come out.” The fear for them is that Tory activists will go on strike and many Brexity Tory voters will protest either by staying at home or casting their votes for Ukip or the latest Farage vehicle. The Tories will likely suffer desertions on their other flank as well. There is a substantial electoral group in Britain that is often forgotten. These are the Tory Remainers, the millions of Conservative-leaning voters who wanted to stay in the EU back in 2016. At least some of them will be defecting to the anti-Brexit parties.

Our Opinium poll suggests that the Tories are heading for a marmalising so bad that it is without historical precedent. Among voters who say they are certain to participate in the elections, only 17% choose the Conservatives. This poll doesn’t claim to be a precise prediction of what will happen at the end of May, but it does point to a shockingly bad outcome for the Tories. This vote share is six points down on their previous record low in Euro elections, which was in 2014. The sage of electoral history, David Cowling, tells me that the Conservatives have never scored as badly as 17% in any UK-wide election from 1832 onwards. No wonder the Tories are desperate to avoid these elections. This they could do, but only by ensuring that Britain has exited the EU before polling day, a task that the government has repeatedly proved incapable of fulfilling.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-dread-euro-elections-they-will-be-marmalised

 

[The Speaker]

Meanwhile Lord Adonis, Labour MEP candidate, has told Labour leavers to vote for someone other than the Labour Party if they want to leave the EU, apparently forgetting that a huge chunk of Labour electorates voted leave.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

8m UK voters not registered ahead of European elections – study

Nearly 8 million people in Britain eligible to vote in the European elections are not yet registered, campaigners have said as the deadline looms.

Research commissioned by Best for Britain, the pro-remain campaign, and undertaken by Number Cruncher Politics suggests 7.9 million eligible voters are not on the electoral roll in their local area.

The figure is based on population and nationality data, estimates of what proportion of the population is registered to vote in each region, and research from the Electoral Commission on the accuracy of the electoral register.

The Green party MP, Caroline Lucas, said: “It’s really concerning that huge swathes of people across the country who have the right to vote in the European elections this May aren’t currently registered.

“This analysis shows nearly 8 million people could be at risk of losing the right to have their voice heard at such a crucial juncture for the country’s future, with young people, private renters and EU citizens some of the groups most at risk of missing out. That needs to change. Whether you voted leave or remain, your voice needs to be heard. Get out and get registered.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...tered-ahead-of-european-elections-study-finds

 

[Crankyhawk]

UKIP got 26.6% at the last EU Parliament election. BP will be aiming to do better than that given that this party is meant to be a broad church and doesn't have the kind of baggage that prevented UKIP from being likewise. Already seen people saying that while they were never willing to vote for UKIP, they'd be alright with voting for BP.

And a reasonable argument if BP gets more than 50% that it would further confirm the leave vote

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Local elections don't always translate well to nationwide votes, but it looks like the Conservatives are getting trashed.



Presumably not much enthusiasm for them come May?

 

[Fat Yak]

https://www.votetommy.co.uk

 

[Chief]

I wonder who pays his web designers? He’s leveraged a YouTube channel into backing from some rich shitburgers. Good on him for getting in while the money is flowing.

 

[The Speaker]

It's all quiet in here despite not being very long until election day(s).

Three polls have come out recently, all have BP ahead.

YouGov: BRX 34%, LAB 16%, LD 15%, GRN 11%, CON 10%, CUK 5%, SNP/PC 4%, UKIP 3%
ComRes: BRX 27%, LAB 25%, LD 14%, CON 13%, GRN 8%, CUK 6%, SNP/PC 3%, UKIP 3%
Opinium: BRX 34%, LAB 21%, LD 12%, CON 11%, GRN 8%, SNP/PC 5%, UKIP 4%, CUK 3%

 

[Bradesmaen]

Not surprising really. MEP elections tend to be more protest votes now than anything. People willing to vote for Brexit Party based on their name without actually knowing anything about them. They have absolutely no policy other than to leave the EU. Typical Farage, in it for his own personality cult rather than anything useful. Wonder what he will do when he can't leech money from the EU once the UK leave? It's his only income and he will never win a seat in UK Parliament.

 

[The Speaker]

Not surprising really. MEP elections tend to be more protest votes now than anything. People willing to vote for Brexit Party based on their name without actually knowing anything about them. They have absolutely no policy other than to leave the EU. Typical Farage, in it for his own personality cult rather than anything useful. Wonder what he will do when he can't leech money from the EU once the UK leave? It's his only income and he will never win a seat in UK Parliament.

Out of the three most recent GE polls, one had BP ahead of the Conservatives, and the other had them 1 point behind.

 

[Total Power]

Not surprising really. MEP elections tend to be more protest votes now than anything. People willing to vote for Brexit Party based on their name without actually knowing anything about them. They have absolutely no policy other than to leave the EU. Typical Farage, in it for his own personality cult rather than anything useful. Wonder what he will do when he can't leech money from the EU once the UK leave? It's his only income and he will never win a seat in UK Parliament.

Brexit Party (which no one can join, by the way, though they’re delighted to receive donations) has stated it will not produce a manifesto - ie, it has no policies. Nothing to tackle climate change, or austerity, or immigration, or inequalities, or the health service, or national security, or terrorism, or threats to biodiversity, tax evasion, or...


Did anyone else see Farage throwing his toys out of his pram on telly yesterday?

If you don't publish any new policies of course you are going to be asked about previous policies you've had.

Last night he basically admitted that people need to forget about what he said in the past, just worry about the present.

I mean, seriously!!! I am astonished that so many idiots are happy to donate money to Farage to do whatever he wants with.

He is right and wrong at the same thiME, he hasn't made promises to anyone before the elections "I will see what happens when we win" is he has said on LBC last night. So no one can now hold him responsible if he doesn't deliver on promises which he never made. Bravo Nige, bravo. Way to fool the public

 

[medusala]

Lots of remainers will vote too one would think. The referendum turnout was actually rather high. Wouldnt surprise if Tories got 15-20%. Papers here saying that members are refusing to door knock or post leaflets in protest against May being such a useless muppet.

Post hasnt aged well! Staggering how this is turning out.

Did anyone else see Farage throwing his toys out of his pram on telly yesterday?

If you don't publish any new policies of course you are going to be asked about previous policies you've had.

Completely owned Marr who made an utter fool of himself. Its not a general election its all about Europe. Yet Marr was ignoritng that. No wonder he is dominating the polls.

 

[medusala]

Not surprising really. MEP elections tend to be more protest votes now than anything. People willing to vote for Brexit Party based on their name without actually knowing anything about them.

Brexit party, the name is a bit of a hint.

Typical Farage, in it for his own personality cult rather than anything useful.

lol. Would have made far more money if he stuck with the City (unlike people like Corbyn and Abbott who are basically unemployable).

 

[Bradesmaen]

Brexit party, the name is a bit of a hint.



lol. Would have made far more money if he stuck with the City (unlike people like Corbyn and Abbott who are basically unemployable).

Ooh yeah, because the name says it all about their entire policies.. typical from Farage - he's a coward.

Also - you realise one of his metal trading companies went insolvent? What a wonderful guy. He's exactly like Trump - trading on a name rather than his failed businesses.

“This suggestion that he was a very wealthy man in the City is probably a bit of a misnomer,” one metals broker says. “I don’t think he was anywhere near as successful as some people are portraying. He probably does better out of being an MEP.”

https://www.ft.com/content/02cad03a-844f-11e4-bae9-00144feabdc0

Oh dear - Medusala lying again. REALLY?! NO WAY! Never done an ounce of research.