2019 Expectations

[Rion]

Not sure how people understand or expect rebuilds to occur and in relation to games won or lost when there are a whole lot of other dynamics going on with every other team etc.

2020-21 the target year for finals? Are we on track...Yes imop
Throughout 2017 and 2018 we did not necessarily play our best 22 available as we endeavoured to develop young players.

All clubs have injuries but when clubs have injury to key players without a back up player it impacts heavily...we have been one of those clubs. Eg without a key forward back up (eg when Taberner was going well then broke down) or key defender back up it shows over the number of weeks without them, effecting structure and

Our current situation is looking better wih now Hogan and Lobb and Colyer and Lobb comparing to losing the aged Johnson, Pearce and Spurr. Neale loss means we need at least one top inside mid along with more mid depth so two. Fortuneatly this years draft has them even past pick 31.

Is the coach to blame - no. If we did not have Ross we would have finished dead set last 2017 and 2018...thats how ugly our situation was in terms of key personel and depth.

2019 7-10 wins finishing 16-12; 2020 14-15 wins 7-4; 2021 15-18 wins 4-1

teams that will compete for domination 2020-2024 Essendon Carlton Brisbane Fremantle

Disclaimer: this member enjoys the occassional romancing in prophesying with 0% success.

I think there's a fair bit of danger in predicting linear improvements like that. I can almost guarantee that (not including Essendon who imo are already a good team) 1 or 2 of that group won't be dominating.

I think with the experienced guys we've brought in we're geared up for a jump right now. If that doesn't eventuate I think you have to be asking some real hard questions instead of just assuming the progression of young players will eventually make us into a powerhouse (which history tells us is fairly unlikely).

 

[thefreodockers]

When under pressure our midfield has not had the opportunity to use a long kick down the line to a contest, and if they did there was a high chance of an intercept mark and quick rebound.

We now have sufficient marking power on all lines to use this option with confidence. If we retain possession or even make a 50/50 contest, we are better for it, and our mids will benefit from this with more of the ball - or opportunity to get it. This alone will increase our supply forward.

The addition of genuinely talented marking power in our spine, will have a flow on effect of making our mids look better (like it does for West Coast). This will more than account for the loss of Neale.

I’m hoping and thinking it possible we could go top 6 next year with our improved depth and structure options - just like Collingwood jumped up this year.

 

[Joao]

When under pressure our midfield has not had the opportunity to use a long kick down the line to a contest, and if they did there was a high chance of an intercept mark and quick rebound.

We now have sufficient marking power on all lines to use this option with confidence. If we retain possession or even make a 50/50 contest, we are better for it, and our mids will benefit from this with more of the ball - or opportunity to get it. This alone will increase our supply forward.

The addition of genuinely talented marking power in our spine, will have a flow on effect of making our mids look better (like it does for West Coast). This will more than account for the loss of Neale.

I’m hoping and thinking it possible we could go top 6 next year with our improved depth and structure options - just like Collingwood jumped up this year.

We could definitely improve but compare the Pies midfield to ours. Chalk and cheese.

 

[Purpletown]

After three years of being used as a punching bag by the rest of the AFL I find it hard to have positive expectations for 2019 and think we will go sideways. Best case scenario is to be mid table and not make the finals for the forth year in a row, worst case the injury curse continues to hamper us, also it may take a while for the new players to gel together on game day and if we do have our normal injury problems that process could take even longer.
However by the time season 2019 rolls around my expectations will be a lot higher no doubt.

 

[Sweetback]

I would just be happy to build up a head of steam, like North or Essendon did this year. A year to make me think we were on the right track.

 

[Square Peg]

As long as we get the flag in 2020 that we will have no excuses not to get, I am happy to be mediocre next year.

Honestly, who can say what will happen without even knowing our fixture or the final list of 44 players at our disposal? I'd give it another month or so before even thinking about it.

 

[88mph]

Seeing Logue and Bennell on the park.

That is a non negotiable.

 

[Joao]

I would just be happy to build up a head of steam, like North or Essendon did this year. A year to make me think we were on the right track.

North had a good run with injury with only Waite (who is like 100) struggling to get on the park. If we could do similar I have no doubt we would improve massively.

Seeing Logue and Bennell on the park.

That is a non negotiable.

You are going to have to start executing hostages if you aren't willing to negotiate on Bennell playing games. I'd bet a reasonable sum he doesn't play a single game for Freo next year and a large sum that he plays less than 10 games.

 

[88mph]

North had a good run with injury with only Waite (who is like 100) struggling to get on the park. If we could do similar I have no doubt we would improve massively.

You are going to have to start executing hostages if you aren't willing to negotiate on Bennell playing games. I'd bet a reasonable sum he doesn't play a single game for Freo next year and a large sum that he plays less than 10 games.

It's more connected to our SC team.

We've had too many players out for too long.

 

[Joao]

It's more connected to our SC team.

We've had too many players out for too long.

I figured so and I don't think it will happen. His body is cooked IMO.

Sad as that is.

 

[BigKep]

With all this talk about how bad our midfield is going to be, anybody else think a mature age ball winner my be a good recruiting idea? Personally I'd be looking at either of Mitch Grigg or Mitch Maguire to come in for an immediate impact next season then hopefully end of 2019 we can try and trade for a decent mid.

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[go_the_dockers]

With all this talk about how bad our midfield is going to be, anybody else think a mature age ball winner my be a good recruiting idea? Personally I'd be looking at either of Mitch Grigg or Mitch Maguire to come in for an immediate impact next season then hopefully end of 2019 we can try and trade for a decent mid.

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I would take Marlon Pickett at 30 .

If we do sign someone then they need to be play in a couple of spots.

I think grigg is too slow, and has a habit of running forward .

 

[BigKep]

I would take Marlon Pickett at 30 .

If we do sign someone then they need to be play in a couple of spots.

I think grigg is too slow, and has a habit of running forward .

Not sure what his two way running is like but just look to Michael Barlow and Josh Kennedy as on ballers who don't need to be quick to have an impact. Also I'm not convinced that they necessarily have to be able to play multiple positions as long as they're good in their main one.

It'll be interesting to see what the recruiting teams tact will be on draft day. Whether they keep going with Lloyd and co's record of taking mature age players or do we aim more for youth.

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[dropbear101]

watching that Adelaide and port Adelaide games gave me hope as our midfield beat theirs
ill never forget seeing a centre bounce line up after a goal of giro, darcy, cerra, brayshaw, banfield, Langdon all so young
this was against port Adelaide
so I actually believe the talents present and will develop. add in hills, fyfe, walters, blakely, conca
neales a gun but we should pick the best talent at 14 not a replacement for Neale.
plus I like the idea of a forward line of Ihill, hogan, bennell, walters, lobb, tabs
I expect us to win 10

 

[Lach72]

The AFL.com.au article today is interesting, but when they talk about Neale's stats, like a lot of news stories about Neale, the focus is on his offensive stats (possessions, clearances, etc)

No doubt losing Neale is a big hole when it comes to getting the ball at a clearance. I think we hope that guys like Blakely can lift to bridge the gap but that will have to play out.

What is seldom discussed, however, is the defensive impact of Neale leaving. And here, just perhaps, we might be better off.

Blakely, S.Hill, Fyfe, Mundy, and even Brayshaw and Banfield average more 1%ers a game than Neale. All of those guys--except for Blakely--tackle more per game than Neale.

Of course they still have to win the ball. Neale's loss certainly isn't trival.

But it might be that without Neale at the stoppage, we become a little more old school with pressure and defensive grunt. And that might be a good thing.

I was thinking about this the other day, in another way.

Blakely spent most of last year off half back. He goes to the midfield and starts smashing it.
Lachie is all about winning possession...then dinky hand balls...a bit Matt Priddis.

Conor is a dynamic, proactive mid. His first few steps are quick and attacking...get out of the stoppage ASAP using feet not hands. Then look to create using handball.

 

[Simmofreo]

It's going to be weird for a while seeing Hogan mentioned in our team discussions

Love it

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[Simmofreo]

The way I read those stats is that Lobb and Hogan will make f*** all difference. We are getting flogged in the midfield most weeks.

Even if Blakely covers Lachie, we need a few others to lift A LOT (and Mundy to carry on) else we aren't improving at all on 2018.

Yeah but I don't buy into those champion data things too much.

What if we only go into our forward line 20 times in a game. By the stats we get flogged oh no !!!

But what happens if we go in 20 times for 20 goals ?? And what happens if we kick the first 10 Unanswered and the other teams confidence is shot ?

Anything can happen

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[Simmofreo]

My issue is against the rubbish teams we had players like Cox, McCarthy, Taberner and Ballantyne kick 3+ on occasions. When we were getting smashed they barely got a kick due to our midfield getting hammered. Who’s to say Hogan and Lobb won’t be the same.

I think they’re better players and we’ll be better for it long term but if we’re real even with Neale’s piss weak defensive efforts he’s a big loss to this side. Our midfield is worse next year. We will still have games where we’ll get hammered in there and having better forwards won’t help if we barely get the ball in there. We’ll smash teams with shite midfields but struggle against the rest imo.

Yes but Freo we The Kings of bombing it in high and the opposition rebounds straight out.

Having someone that can mark those hail Mary's will chance everything

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[wayToGo_]

The other potential improvement is our pressure inside 50. Teams have scored a **** load against us on the rebound the past three seasons. People talk about midfield and winning clearances etc but from memory the vast majority of scores against have been off the back of intercepts against - because they rebound with zero pressure and our defenders have no chance to stop the surge against.

Hogan and Lobb, given their size are pretty good at not letting the opposition run away with it, especially compared to Tabs who I'd argue would have the worst i50 pressure of any KPF in the AFL (which I can see impacting him securing a B22 spot through the season). Add some speed in Colyer and maybe Ian Hill and the opposition's defenders could be feeling the heat. i50 pressure creates mistakes, mistakes creates intercepts and intercepts creates repeat entries. Lock that ball in and it takes pressure off us and puts it all on the opposition (like happened to us plenty in 2016).

 

[Joao]

Yeah but I don't buy into those champion data things too much.

What if we only go into our forward line 20 times in a game. By the stats we get flogged oh no !!!

But what happens if we go in 20 times for 20 goals ?? And what happens if we kick the first 10 Unanswered and the other teams confidence is shot ?

Anything can happen

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You can ignore isolated stats but you can't ignore 3 seasons of s***ness directly contrasting with 3 years when we were good.

20 times for 20 goals literally never happens so it is completely pointless to bring it up. Why not just say we will keep them to no score and beat them 1-0? Equally pointless.

You can stick you hands on your ears and go la la la la as much as you like but our midfield is often terrible. You can tell that by looking at those stats you don't rate or by simply watching games where they are clearly getting smashed.

 

[Wilksyy]

Stats with a sample size of 60+ is not simplistic though. For 3 years our midfield has been pants and we have largely sucked during that period. That is not a coincidence.

I'm going early, if we don't have multiple mids step up this year, we will only improve marginally if at all even with the new forwards.

Yeah, I agree. Our midfield has been crap for a while. Just saying, a lot of Freo supporters have bought into the "we need a KPF" since Pav left. Our midfield have some big holes, even when Lachie was around.

 

[Purple Jesus]

The other potential improvement is our pressure inside 50. Teams have scored a **** load against us on the rebound the past three seasons. People talk about midfield and winning clearances etc but from memory the vast majority of scores against have been off the back of intercepts against - because they rebound with zero pressure and our defenders have no chance to stop the surge against.

Hogan and Lobb, given their size are pretty good at not letting the opposition run away with it, especially compared to Tabs who I'd argue would have the worst i50 pressure of any KPF in the AFL (which I can see impacting him securing a B22 spot through the season). Add some speed in Colyer and maybe Ian Hill and the opposition's defenders could be feeling the heat. i50 pressure creates mistakes, mistakes creates intercepts and intercepts creates repeat entries. Lock that ball in and it takes pressure off us and puts it all on the opposition (like happened to us plenty in 2016).

Having a completely transformed spine/structure will force gameplan changes and will transform the entire team. Can't see us looking anything at all like the previous 3 seasons next year.

 

[Wally Walpamur]

I think there's a fair bit of danger in predicting linear improvements like that. I can almost guarantee that (not including Essendon who imo are already a good team) 1 or 2 of that group won't be dominating.

I think with the experienced guys we've brought in we're geared up for a jump right now. If that doesn't eventuate I think you have to be asking some real hard questions instead of just assuming the progression of young players will eventually make us into a powerhouse (which history tells us is fairly unlikely).

I’m expecting exponential improvement over the next three years. We’ll have a lot of our best talent reaching 50-100 games and three-four pre seasons under their belts. The Fyfe, the Hills, Sonny and the mid-20 somethings will all be in their prime.

 

[Simmofreo]

You can ignore isolated stats but you can't ignore 3 seasons of s***ness directly contrasting with 3 years when we were good.

20 times for 20 goals literally never happens so it is completely pointless to bring it up. Why not just say we will keep them to no score and beat them 1-0? Equally pointless.

You can stick you hands on your ears and go la la la la as much as you like but our midfield is often terrible. You can tell that by looking at those stats you don't rate or by simply watching games where they are clearly getting smashed.

Go and rewatch the Geelong game

23 unanswered goals can happen

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[its free real estate]

You can ignore isolated stats but you can't ignore 3 seasons of s***ness directly contrasting with 3 years when we were good.

Why did our midfield get worse?